JonS Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: The real question is... do we know how many planes Russia can use Wikipedia suggests the Trent has the big number - 4 or 5 - about right. But whether it's 4 or 5 or 6 doesn't matter in some sense, since any of those numbers aren't enough to continuously cover two areas simultaneously. OTOH, if it's still 5 or 6 then the Rooskis do still have some redundancy (assuming they leave monitoring the rest of their border to purely ground-based radar) before gaps will start appearing in the coverage over eastern Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Wot Border Guards doin'? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 12 minutes ago, JonS said: Wikipedia suggests the Trent has the big number - 4 or 5 - about right. But whether it's 4 or 5 or 6 doesn't matter in some sense, since any of those numbers aren't enough to continuously cover two areas simultaneously. OTOH, if it's still 5 or 6 then the Rooskis do still have some redundancy (assuming they leave monitoring the rest of their border to purely ground-based radar) before gaps will start appearing in the coverage over eastern Ukraine. Even if they have the numbers, they don't seem to be flying them, currently. Plus there's the little issue that two were destroyed in the air, at different locations, conditions, and the distances from frontline and possibly using different weapons. That's a few too many variables to bet a third A-50 on... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 10 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Wot Border Guards doin'? A few days to go to Putin's election and enemy tanks are prowling around inside Russia. Not sure I'd be curtain twitching with that thing outside though, but good on her for uploading it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Nothing to see here, please move along. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 4 hours ago, Kinophile said: Even if they have the numbers, they don't seem to be flying them, currently. Plus there's the little issue that two were destroyed in the air, at different locations, conditions, and the distances from frontline and possibly using different weapons. That's a few too many variables to bet a third A-50 on... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/30664/ukraine-battlefield-dynamics-manpower-fortifications-and-ammunition/ My notes: They made another trip to UKR front lines. They are doing these around every 3months. Ukraine's Challenges: Ukraine faces a triple threat with manpower, fortifications, and ammunition shortages. Mobilization remains stalled at political level, hindering long-term force generation. This decision also has a long lead time to effects on the battlefield Last year we saw you cannot make brigades in couple of months Fortifications are being worked on now, but only lately. Ammunition depends on external factors like US aid and Europe commitment drones are going to help to bridge the gap to an extent. These problems are the same as last trip three months ago. Ukraine leadership changes are still an unknown. Generally seems the leadership is on the same page about the main challenges as the front line troops The war is at an intersection. Many things can go either way, US support, UKR mobilization... Depending on these the war can change radically. Even a Harkiv-style collapse for the Ukrainians is not out of the question on the "bad timelines". Overly extended summer offensive and pointless commitment of reserves to those attacks have depleted Ukraine Especially Ukrainian infantry has been under extreme strain, battalion might be in OK condition but only have a couple of platoons of fully mission-capable infantry. Unlikely to see any strategic level offensives from the Ukrainians in 2024 Some Russian challenges: Russian Force Quality: While a concern in 2023, Russia has demonstrated a capacity to sustain casualties and maintain a baseline level of force quality. This has been shown in practice during the summers stubborn defense and the bloody assaults we are now seeing. UKR has reported increased discipline and executions by the RU Manpower: So far Russia has been able to compensate for it casualties with recruitment. This has been surprisingly successful. Several 100k last year and now in the tens of thousands a month. Unkown how long Russia can keep up. If they cannot a new mobilization wave is going to be required. Equipment availability: Main limiting factor for the Russians at this moment. Ukraine's Evolving Tactics: Shortage of Soviet-era AA ammunition is a major concern. and now also western ammunition UKR is having increasing success with small mobile AA defenses (MANPADS, AAA, HMG) supported by well integrated sensors and coordination. This is against RU cruise missiles and suicide drones. Especially in parts of the front UKR is developing integration of assets, intelligence and troops to a whole new level. Big steps compared to three months ago Drone war moving more towards competition in quality and integration rather than quantity. Ukraine Battlefield Dynamics Manpower, Fortifications, and Ammunition.mp3 Edited March 12 by The_MonkeyKing typos, formating 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 2 hours ago, Carolus said: Nothing to see here, please move along. Looks like an engine fire to me, not a hit from something Ukraine chucked at it. Could just be a rather exciting way to demonstrate that sanctions aren't as pointless as some people seem to think. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 6 hours ago, Kinophile said: Even if they have the numbers, they don't seem to be flying them, currently. Plus there's the little issue that two were destroyed in the air, at different locations, conditions, and the distances from frontline and possibly using different weapons. That's a few too many variables to bet a third A-50 on... Yup. It just goes to show how vulnerable big capabilities are to relatively small actions. Whatever the Ukrainians spent on taking out those planes, in the air and on the ground, paid off massively. And like sinking a ship, the damage is (effectively) permanent. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) It seems pretty much confirmed that Russia took out 2 Patriot launchers recently. That is certainly painful, but I also remembered that Ukraine received 2 spare launchers from the Netherlands and the USA each - and maybe 2 more from Germany? So, considering there have been no other confirmed losses (some got minor damage and were repaired), Ukraine should have at least 2 more spare launchers in addition to their 3 full Patriot batteries. Edited March 12 by Carolus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Looks like an engine fire to me, not a hit from something Ukraine chucked at it. Could just be a rather exciting way to demonstrate that sanctions aren't as pointless as some people seem to think. Steve Oh yeah, I saw no claims that this was a Ukrainian hit. But nonetheless, there is now an IL-76 and 15 Russians less in the airforce. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 First time I've seen footage from a s400 crew during a HIMARS attack on it. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Saying it was a decoy, "because I know". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) Information Is Beautiful website. Good graphic at the end that shows the significance of the currently delayed US support. https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/ukraine-russian-war-infographics-data-visuals/#two-years Edited March 12 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 13 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Information Is Beautiful website. Good graphic at the end that shows the significance of the currently delayed US support. https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/ukraine-russian-war-infographics-data-visuals/#two-years Especially these were interesting: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Especially these were interesting: So, the Germans have in fact given more % to Ukraine than US and have been hurt the most economically with Nord stream shut down etc. Let's keep this in mind in the next round of German bashing. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) 1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Edited March 12 by panzermartin Double 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 minute ago, panzermartin said: So, the Germans have in fact given more % to Ukraine than US and have been hurt the most economically with Nord stream shut down etc. Let's keep this in mind in the next round of German bashing. Yeah, Germany has been doing were well on the ground for the last year or so. Still PR and communication disaster. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) This day was interesting not because of free-Russia troops crossed Russian border, but also huge simultainous drone attack on nine Russian oblasts. Obviously these were chains of one operation on eve of "Putin elections". Most significant were strikes on oil storage in Oryol - at least one fuel tank was set on fire... ... And attack on "Lukoil" company oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhniy Novgorod oblast in 800 km NE from closest point of UKR border. The drone precisely hit and set on fire the fractioning column, maintaning 53% of refinery output. This refinery also supplies about 30 % of gasoline in Moscow oblast. UKR drones and MLRS again were launched on Belgorod Reporteldy a drone with small warhead hit city administration building (2 employees were lightly wounded) Edited March 12 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 8 hours ago, Kinophile said: Wot Border Guards doin'? I'm sorry is that T-72 crewed by Russian rebels driving inside Russia with EU flag on it? What the F? What is this world anymore? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said: I'm sorry is that T-72 crewed by Russian rebels driving inside Russia with EU flag on it? What the F? What is this world anymore? Amazing. They should have flown the pride + trans pride + black power first (in a rainbow of skin tones) flag I’ve seen knocking about town. Puting would literally die of confusion. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Especially these were interesting: Talking about sustainability and the importance of Western support, it is pretty clear that while Russia also spends an increasing percentage of its GDP, Ukraine is really in a bad spot economically. 6% is a lot but manageable, 20% isn't, at least not for too long. And I think the situation is a bit worse than the graphic suggests. It appears like Ukrainian percentage GDP is high and volatile but not constantly going up. But that's assuming the GDP is growing by over 7% this year. They are apparently using the statista numbers (or have the same source) which look to me like a simple linear extrapolation from the years 2014-2023 (excluding 2021 as an outlier). And that sounds very optimistic to me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) Crash site of IL-76, which fell down near Ivanovo. Some Russian TGs claimed that unknown passengers, who were onboard, were crewmen of A-50. Ivanovo-Severnyi airfield is a base of 610th Center of combat usage and flight personnel retrain, having in own composition IL-76 and A-50 planes, some of which are strored. If this is true, IL-76 crash can be a diveriosion to eliminate A-50 pilots and operators, which probably flew to bring into exploitation A-50, repaired from the storage to substitute previous losses Reportedly (but not verified) in result of drone strikes on Beriyev aviation plant in Taganrog two A-50 (one of them - that which suffered from small drone attack in Belarus), staying under repar in hangar got additional damages and have taken out for unknown time. Edited March 12 by Haiduk 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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