How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

 

A common western critique has been that Ukraine "needs to upscale".  Last summers offensive appeared to be penny-packeting - "why can't they get mech to work? Must be because they do not know how to do Bn level manoeuvre.  It is their Soviet tradition (which does not even make sense with respect to upscaling)"  

I am in the camp that after 2 years of war the UA knows how to fight this war better than we do.  It looks like they have picked their "upscaling" effort.

[Kraft]

Under the right conditions, Canada open to sending noncombat troops to Ukraine, Defence Minister Bill Blair says

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/under-the-right-conditions-canada-open-to-sending-noncombat-troops-to-ukraine-defence-minister-bill/article_eec6806c-d71d-11ee-91fb-ab92d0af803e.html

[Battlefront.com]

It looks to me that something got decided behind closed doors.  That's some serious messaging from two major NATO countries pretty much at once saying something about troops in Ukraine and a third saying "we shouldn't say we're not going to put troops into Ukraine".

Steve

[Beleg85]

Russians (?) reportedly tapped talk between German officers regarding, among others, quality of Taurus missiles. Interesting details regarding targeting processes and inventive ways to bypass formal declarations for their delivery to UA. English subs.

 

Edited March 1 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It looks to me that something got decided behind closed doors.  That's some serious messaging from two major NATO countries pretty much at once saying something about troops in Ukraine and a third saying "we shouldn't say we're not going to put troops into Ukraine".

Steve

I would say that US allies are beginning to digest two things: 

1. US aid may never really recover for Ukraine. 

2. If Ukraine loses, it will be the biggest crisis since WWII. 

But as usual, let's see what the follow through looks like. 

 

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians (?) reportedly tapped talk between German officers regarding, among others, quality of Taurus missiles. Interesting details regarding targeting processes and inventive ways to bypass formal declarations for their delivery to UA. English subs.

 

40 minutes and filled with details appears to me pretty genuine, especially considering russias "quality" in other faked content so far.

- Taurus discussion starts at 5 minutes in

- No one has a clue why Scholz is blocking Taurus

- They hint at US soldiers being there and confirm UK troops on the ground overseeing the targeting.

- They also confirm the UK troops would be willing to work with Taurus so German troops dont have be there. So thats another blatant lie from Scholz.

- UA learned patriots within weeks and surprised the crews how good they are used

- Stormshadow/-- mounts can be modified to fit Taurus relatively easy

- hitting easy targets: few weeks

- Hitting the bridge seems difficult, Stormshadow/-- got shot down quite often? Training will be 4-6 months

- Stormshadow and Scalps are pretty much all used and UK/FR want Germany to deliver Taurus before sending more themselfs

- Only single digits amount of Su-24 are left 

Next question, how the **** does russia get access to this?

Edited March 2 by Kraft

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Video 

 

This is grotesque. I know I'm supposed to be all manly and indifferent, but this is a crazy and horrible waste of life.

I guess they are Russians?

Edited March 2 by Bulletpoint

[Kraft]

13 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This is grotesque. I know I'm supposed to be all manly and indifferent, but this is a crazy and horrible waste of life.

I guess they are Russians?

They are on that road because they willingly decided to go and kill the defenders at the end of it.

They could have started a mutiny, surrendered, gone to prison for resistance, but reality is they volunteered most likely for money and because they belive in it.

Edited March 2 by Kraft

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

They are on that road because they willingly decided to go and kill the defenders at the end of it.

They could have started a mutiny, surrendered, gone to prison for resistance, but reality is they volunteered most likely for money or because they belive in it.

I don't want to get into the whole argument about who is right and who is wrong. Seeing this just makes me sick.

[Kinophile]

There's a Lot of this type of stuff going to Ukraine. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/nWG5SGGAFq268uJt/?mibextid=xfxF2i

I'm particularly interested in the melding of UKR Navy with SOF / Intel Agencies, Drone Warfare, AD and Air Ops.

This seems to be a unique fusion across many traditionally Balkanized forces. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the BSF's worst move was destroying the old Ukrainian Navy. 

Edited March 2 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Now imagine the Bradley able to view the drone footage in real time giving themselves real time BDA.  In this fully illuminated space, any EM signature downsides would be more than offset by the better situational awareness.  Suddenly vehicles get to see the map in overhead view with all the benefits that those weak willed among us who don’t play on ironman.  
 

I absolutely guarantee we will see slaved drones organic to individual IFVs on the next iterations.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I absolutely guarantee we will see slaved drones organic to individual IFVs on the next iterations.

With four spares as standard equipment, so they can just literally send the next one out the turret hatch at need.

Edit: and fully automated target pass thru for engaging targets out of LOS. There have been a couple of tapes of Bradleys using improvised drone directed fire. It is a good trick to have.

 

Edited March 2 by dan/california

[Vet 0369]

11 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

First rule of Aerial warfare. Divide the wartime claimed kills by 3 (sometime even have to divide it by 7)

 

Also, Russia could develop then filed something similar to ADM-160 MALD decoy missile/drone.

Yes! This is one of the main reasons that gun cameras were added to fighters. A kill also had to be confirmed by another pilot.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Reported details of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations that occurred in Istanbul in April 2022 indicate that Russia has consistently envisioned a settlement for its illegal invasion of Ukraine wherein Ukraine would be unable to defend itself from a future Russian attack – an objective Russia continues to pursue under calls for Ukraine’s “demilitarization.”
• Reported details of the draft treaty suggest that Russia intended to use the treaty to set conditions for future attacks against Ukraine while also prompting the West to make concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty.
• Russian authorities suggested that the Kremlin has likely adopted a more extensive set of goals regarding Ukraine over the course of Russia's war against Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to disparage Russian elites in his February 29 Federal Assembly speech, more closely aligning himself with the veteran and military community and drawing praise from ultranationalist milbloggers.
• Kremlin officials met with leaders of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia and emphasized Russia’s support for Gagauzia against perceived Moldovan “oppression” on March 1.
• Ukraine and the Netherlands signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on March 1.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City on March 1.
• Russian authorities will likely use annual combat training for Russian reservists to support crypto-mobilization efforts.

 

 

Russia has never offered anything but unconditional surrender.

•  

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

With four spares as standard equipment, so they can just literally send the next one out the turret hatch at need.

Edit: and fully automated target pass thru for engaging targets out of LOS. There have been a couple of tapes of Bradleys using improvised drone directed fire. It is a good trick to have.

 

Not out the turret hatch.  Out of the drone garage slung on the back.  No need for any human to get exposed to let the drones out.  And if the drones survive to make it back, they'll park on an auto charger.

You'll also see ability a Bradley to punch up video from another in the platoon if it's better placed to take shots.

 

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Not out the turret hatch.  Out of the drone garage slung on the back.  No need for any human to get exposed to let the drones out.  And if the drones survive to make it back, they'll park on an auto charger.

You'll also see ability a Bradley to punch up video from another in the platoon if it's better placed to take shots.

 

 

I go back and forth on whether or not to do the drones thru the crew hatch. Clearly the fully automated setup you describe has many advantages, but parking them by the gunners hatch puts them in the most protected part of the tank/IFV.

[Zeleban]

.

Edited March 2 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

If I would be AFU soldier, I would prefer as a Christmas present big fat modern gun rather than crying about some part for quadrocopter, but you are entitled to your own opinion naturally. Sorry, doesn't seem like Poland "ditched" Ukraine in any way so far:

That is why today it is possible to close the border with Ukraine and deprive it of other support. If I were a soldier, the first thing I would want for Christmas would not be a big, fat modern pistol, but a bulletproof vest and a CAT tourniquet.

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

We have business problems that should be solved; what we are seeing now is part of negotiation process. That's all.

 

The only solution to this problem is the abolition of preferences for grain trade in the EU. One of the main sources of income for the existence of Ukraine. Yes, some of this income may be stolen (it is impossible to fight corruption in one fell swoop, especially in a country that is at war), but a much larger part of these funds allows the Ukrainian economy to stay afloat. That is why the EU gave us these preferences

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw., talking about volunteers...could you explain me in rational terms why every volunteers from here- be it Pole, Swede, English, Ukrainian from abroad or whoever- must pay a bribe to one of your border guards to actually bring something into UA? You even realise how widespread the practice is and how many people resigned from help cause of it? What is happening with those drones, starlinks and myriad other stuff that they are suddenly found on OLX? Why your journos- despite repeated and grounded reports send to independent media in UA- are so rarely interested in what is happening with this stuff afterwards and actual entire culture of corruption? Why, and I know what I mean, we see the same self-satisfied, fat Soviet faces on the border for the last two years sitting in their posts like bashas, despite numerous assurances that "something will change" from central gov?

Your arguments are ridiculous. They are strikingly similar to MAGA Republicans (or years of Russian propaganda) saying that aid to Ukraine should be cut off because it is a corrupt country.

Nobody forces volunteers to pay bribes on the border with Ukraine. If they want to help, they help, if they don’t want to, they don’t help.

The assertion that our journalists are not interested in corruption in Ukraine simply does not stand up to criticism. We have entire YouTube channels that investigate corruption and expose corrupt officials. Thanks to their investigations, many corrupt officials find themselves behind bars. One of these investigators is BIGUS.Moreover, journalists in the West write their articles about corruption in Ukraine based on investigations by Ukrainian journalists.

The claim that drones and drone parts are sold on OLX is also nonsense. Thanks to FPV strike statistics, we can all see exactly where these drones are heading.

The statement about the “faces” of Ukrainians is especially outrageous. “We must stop helping Ukraine, because Ukrainians have Soviet, not European faces.” You have to recommend this idea to MAGA supporters. I am sure that this statement will gain great popularity among them. By the way, I recommend taking a closer look at the fat and arrogant faces of Polish farmers scattering Ukrainian grain collected from mined fields.

 

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

To hell with them, 12 hours of waiting extra at the very least unless you change your mind..." This is not incidental but almost obligatory (depending whom you know), I personally know people who actually wait more on your side of the border than blocked by protesters on other- and this is exactly humanitarian help you mentioned.  Perhaps UkrainskaPravda should look into that, instead of spreading fakes about zilions of tonns of Russian grain that- suppesedly- out of a sudden landed in PL?

Polish logic. It turns out that the Ukrainians themselves blocked the borders and blame the Poles for it

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Nope Zeleban...you are sabotaging yourself, at many levels. To be brutally honest, I am in more awe of courage of your soldiers, knowing how corrupted, oligarchic and still mirred in Soviet mentallity state structure they defend (and don't read me wrong, I don't mean your nation). There is no reason why farmer from here, or anywhere else from European Union, should be ruined on the altar of extra revenues for some grain oligarch. Zelensky himself mentioned that only 5% of UA grain goes through that border and your country actually increased its revenues totally...so are really things that bad? Or somebody in Kyiv simply miscalculated it is more profitable to earn some extra by dumping this grain into EU like crazy than keep hot romantic relations with Warsaw. I don't blame them frankly, Bankowa was always very pragmatic when comes to these issues. If they see a looser, they use him; it's part of Soviet diplomatic heritage from very old times that still exists, just as it exists in the military yourself wrote about. Yermak and entire collection of shaddy businessmen that sorrounds him is just example.

So, you have said enough arguments to draw a conclusion. Ukrainians are arrogant, corrupt bastards with Soviet faces, who themselves blocked the border with Poland and blame the Poles for this. It is necessary to immediately close the border with them, ending their support. Help suffering Polish farmers instead.

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. if you really want to search for scandals, I would turn more attention who actually grew fat and rich on various businesses that are run in your country during war, what percent of actual new revenues goes into your warchest, what is happening along entire length of these chains (including deep into EU or even in Africa) and what stays on someone's account during these transactions. Grain speculation including.

To be honest, I personally don’t care who exactly profited from these supplies. What worries me today is that the soldiers on the front lines have enough resources to contain the plague coming from the east. I think people who help Ukraine in its struggle (and are not looking for reasons to stop supporting) think the same way as me.

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Well yes,you are right, but if indeed bringing parts for them is such a problem, why not pack them together already in EU, put into proper military/humanitarian cargos that go unobstructed, instead of civilan ones?

I hope you understand how many bureaucratic obstacles volunteers will have to overcome in order to transport items purchased with donations along with military cargo? These things are needed at the front today.

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

For what I read among less-panicking sources, main problem caused by protesters is actually with cars for the army that are travelling on formally civilian carriages, that sometimes are indeed severly delayed. There were also instances where actual smaller military cargos were blocked (like famous boat for AFU), but rarely for longer than several hours. The problems with parts for copters is that once prostesters started to letting cargo with drone parts out, naturally every truck instantly started to carry them, regardless if it was fish, vegetables, cars, yogurths and such... I know a story about a driver with oranges who claimed he carried propulsion for drones size of a fist (couldn't show it, naturally, somewhere in the middle), and even had complete of barely faked documents. Therefore, valid military cargo.

 

What cunning and resourceful bastards - they came up with the opportunity to deliver goods bypassing the demands of a gang of random outcasts. What right does this bunch of greedy characters have to check drivers’ documents and inspect cargo at the border? I thought this is what Polish border guards are for?

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. the same surprise goes for European Union policies. Everybody in 2022 expected Ukraine will neeed these land borders as lifelines when Black Sea trade will be cut; that was original reason why any limits were lifted. But Ukraine managed pretty well, sea roads were unblocked and even prosper, and main things that travel through this border is cars, food stuff and myriad other civilian things that have little to do with war.

Another brilliant reason to stop supplies to Ukraine. Ukraine is already feeling great. Almost too good. Why does the population of a warring country need food and civilian goods?

If everything were as you claim, the EU would have abolished benefits for Ukraine long ago. Oh yes, the cunning Europeans conspired with the greedy Ukrainians to deprive the poor Poles of income.

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Rant about brothership and all is emotional in nature and have little to do with actual policies of both states; I could respond that brother does not wait to ruin the house he was welcomed in or at least display minimal ability for cooperation, but that is so banal I won't do that. Also remember farmers are just one social group, not representative for entire society.

Oh, so the Ukrainians are destroying Poland? Then why don't the Poles join the Russians and save their country from the vile Ukrainians? 

I see very well how actively the Poles support this social group. At least judging by the post you posted above.

[cesmonkey]

Another update from Syrskyi

https://t.me/osirskiy/608
 

Quote

I continue to work on the Eastern Front. Within three days, it became completely clear why, in the case of the same indicators of staffing, weapons and military equipment, some brigades manage to hold back enemy attacks and hold their positions, while others do not.

First of all, it depends on the brigade commander, his level of training, experience, ability to make adequate and balanced decisions and understanding of the full responsibility for the performance of assigned tasks and for the life and health of his subordinates.

Undoubtedly, the level of training and coordination of the brigade headquarters, through which the commander exercises his powers, plays a great role.

Therefore, I have sent groups of specialists to individual brigades where there are problems with the preparation of the headquarters to transfer experience and provide assistance.

Based on the results of listening to brigade commanders and their deputies, all necessary decisions were made to provide reserves, ammunition, UAVs and other equipment. In some cases, when the commander does not control the situation, and actions and commands directly threaten the life and health of subordinates, I am forced to make personnel decisions.

In general, today I want to note the actions of the servicemen of the 54th Ombre, who destroyed two columns of enemy armored vehicles with accurate artillery fire in combination with competent mining, the steadfastness and courage of the soldiers of the 25th Opdbr and the 47th Ombre in the battles for Orlivka and Berdychi, the determination and courage of the soldiers of the 79th odshbr during repelling enemy attacks in the Novomykhailivka area.

I note as a positive the replacement of one brigade at the front after two years of continuous fighting and moving to the rear to restore combat capability.

Thus, the situation at the front remains difficult, but controlled.

Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[Tenses]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

That is why today it is possible to close the border with Ukraine and deprive it of other support. If I were a soldier, the first thing I would want for Christmas would not be a big, fat modern pistol, but a bulletproof vest and a CAT tourniquet.

 

The only solution to this problem is the abolition of preferences for grain trade in the EU. One of the main sources of income for the existence of Ukraine. Yes, some of this income may be stolen (it is impossible to fight corruption in one fell swoop, especially in a country that is at war), but a much larger part of these funds allows the Ukrainian economy to stay afloat. That is why the EU gave us these preferences

Your arguments are ridiculous. They are strikingly similar to MAGA Republicans (or years of Russian propaganda) saying that aid to Ukraine should be cut off because it is a corrupt country.

Nobody forces volunteers to pay bribes on the border with Ukraine. If they want to help, they help, if they don’t want to, they don’t help.

The assertion that our journalists are not interested in corruption in Ukraine simply does not stand up to criticism. We have entire YouTube channels that investigate corruption and expose corrupt officials. Thanks to their investigations, many corrupt officials find themselves behind bars. One of these investigators is BIGUS.Moreover, journalists in the West write their articles about corruption in Ukraine based on investigations by Ukrainian journalists.

The claim that drones and drone parts are sold on OLX is also nonsense. Thanks to FPV strike statistics, we can all see exactly where these drones are heading.

The statement about the “faces” of Ukrainians is especially outrageous. “We must stop helping Ukraine, because Ukrainians have Soviet, not European faces.” You have to recommend this idea to MAGA supporters. I am sure that this statement will gain great popularity among them. By the way, I recommend taking a closer look at the fat and arrogant faces of Polish farmers scattering Ukrainian grain collected from mined fields.

 

Polish logic. It turns out that the Ukrainians themselves blocked the borders and blame the Poles for it

So, you have said enough arguments to draw a conclusion. Ukrainians are arrogant, corrupt bastards with Soviet faces, who themselves blocked the border with Poland and blame the Poles for this. It is necessary to immediately close the border with them, ending their support. Help suffering Polish farmers instead.

To be honest, I personally don’t care who exactly profited from these supplies. What worries me today is that the soldiers on the front lines have enough resources to contain the plague coming from the east. I think people who help Ukraine in its struggle (and are not looking for reasons to stop supporting) think the same way as me.

I hope you understand how many bureaucratic obstacles volunteers will have to overcome in order to transport items purchased with donations along with military cargo? These things are needed at the front today.

 

What cunning and resourceful bastards - they came up with the opportunity to deliver goods bypassing the demands of a gang of random outcasts. What right does this bunch of greedy characters have to check drivers’ documents and inspect cargo at the border? I thought this is what Polish border guards are for?

Another brilliant reason to stop supplies to Ukraine. Ukraine is already feeling great. Almost too good. Why does the population of a warring country need food and civilian goods?

If everything were as you claim, the EU would have abolished benefits for Ukraine long ago. Oh yes, the cunning Europeans conspired with the greedy Ukrainians to deprive the poor Poles of income.

Oh, so the Ukrainians are destroying Poland? Then why don't the Poles join the Russians and save their country from the vile Ukrainians? 

I see very well how actively the Poles support this social group. At least judging by the post you posted above.

Ok, I really have read enough of this. You are having serious problems with proper assessment of what polish society is and what is not.

First of all I don’t like farmers, just as Beleg85 said, they are not likable in overall polish society. I guess that it might be something with millions of donations from EU, retirement system where they effectively have it granted for free and a couple of other things. When farmers across EU started their protests by blocking centers of big cities with farming equipment worth in excess of 1 million euros each, it also was not very understandable by people in traffic jams worrying that they will be late to their, oh so well, paid job. But overall this is actually nothing compared to how „likable” are agro-oligarchs in Ukraine. You are now standing in their defense and I would love to see how much of the money they earn is supporting the war. They basically try to abuse unfair competition on EU markets in order to make money, but looking at the financial statements, I don’t see anything like „war tax” in defense of their country, soil that have given them free money, could you please explain me this? How does that compare to billions in direct financial and material support from western countries?

After 2014, when immigration to Poland from Ukraine has increased tenfold, the overall sentiment for Ukrainian people was not perfect in Poland during the start of the war in 2022. Especially among low paid workers, additional competition on job market with low wage expectations were seen as danger. Situation was similar to our US friends, who can elaborate more on overall sentiment toward Mexicans and South American people. Invasion started on 24^th of February, my wife spent entire weekend starting 26^th on the border, serving hot meals and distributing blankets to the wave of people in need. Week later we went for the local train station, looked around and took home a mother with a child, who have not even spoken a word in Polish/English. She stayed with us for half a year, when she found suitable job and shelter. My then-boss took a family of 8 and even took care of one girl, who was in the middle of chemotherapy, so she could finish it in Poland without problems. This is just a small part of what happened at that time, no one asked questions, no one was whining, because these were people in dire need. Do you think I liked to have a stranger mother with spoiled child in my home? I didn’t, but this is not the point in helping other people to like that. It is to do that effectively and provide whatever is needed despite your feelings or likening. If you will ever work with people like that, you will learn that this is no simple, nor nice task.

Now you are telling me that polish people have showed that they don’t give a **** about Ukraine because they don’t want to give billions of Euro to your corrupted oligarchs, who are most likely closely connected with Russia. Not to mention some of their perfidious actions, which are gaining better coverage in Poland, which directly hit polish stock holders(so effectively all polish people due to retirement system). You must understand that Ukraine has a long way to go before it will be normal country and I am not even saying about the war. Believe me, Poland was on the same track 35 years ago, but it serves as an example that even if things are not perfect, it is doable. At the moment Ukraine is corrupted as were all post Soviet countries, but it is not that important as long as the war goes. This WILL be important, when the war finally ends to continue normal cooperation with the western countries and their business. Hopefully Ukraine will join EU, but it has so much work to do.

And just as a reminder, borders were open to Ukrainian grain, which is not up to EU standards due to blocked export channel through the Black Sea. Now, thanks to marvelous work of Ukrainian drone fleet, this is not an issue anymore, so what exactly are we talking about? No military/humanitarian or other aid was ever blocked, save for some mistakes, nor will be. This is all about bunch of bastards, who want to profit from the blood of your countryman.

[zinz]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Another update from Syrskyi

https://t.me/osirskiy/608
 

 

That does sound encouraging. Hopefully he can reform the command staff away from the Soviet mindset. We have seen complaints from Ukrainian soldiers for a long time. 

[Kraft]

Source

Edited March 2 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

 

Russia has never offered anything but unconditional surrender.

•  

This is the other major flaw in the thinking within the “sue for peace” crowd…what peace?

All war is negotiation.  However, that negotiation is framed by realities on the ground.  So while this war may very well end in some sort of Korean Peninsula solution on lines yet to be determined.  Like the Korean War both sides had to be forced to the table by military facts.

So the narrative coming out of the MAGA/Macgregor crowd is that 1) Ukraine has no hope.  No military solution exists for Ukraine and they build everything else around that central “fact”.  2) seeing as point #1 is a universal truth (and no room for counter-factuals exists within that universe), the Ukraine must sue for peace.  And of course their own Glorious Leader will somehow make an equitable and enduring peace happen.

This is utter bullsh#t.  Even if one accepts point #1 - and there is a growing pile of evidence the Ukraine is not “done”, as planes keep getting blown out of the sky - this theory completely fails to define just how their version of “peace” will happen.  Russian “peace negotiations” in the past have been self-serving and onion skin thin.  If Ukraine begs for peace right now, it will be from a position of weakness.  If the West begs for peace right now, it will be from a position of weakness.  Does anyone think that Putin is not going to exploit this fact? Russian peace terms will be their terms.  They will be designed to ensure: future Ukrainian vulnerability, a clear demonstration of Western weakness and failure, and promote Russian superiority.  

If Ukraine sued for peace right now I have zero doubts Russia would be asking for war reparations…from a country they invaded.  Russia would also likely demand legitimacy and recognition for the territories it captured.  And would make sure they set conditions for successful future actions - they will call it “Ukrainian neutrality”.

There is no easy tap out in this war.  It is a real war where endstate will emerge directly from military outcomes.  As a minimum Ukraine must freeze this war on its terms, not Russia’s and the West needs to support that.  The “fantasy” in all this is not the prospect of future Ukrainian military success, it is the entire belief that there is another option when dealing with Russia.  I suspect there will be an end line in all this and I am less and less convinced it will be the pre-2014 border; at this point pre-2022 will be a stretch.  But it is definitely not where we are today.  Ignoring the lines on the ground, Russian sacrifice is not high enough to force them towards anything remotely looking like an equitable peace negotiation that we could trust.

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

The only solution to this problem is the abolition of preferences for grain trade in the EU.

So core of the problem is at the same time solution...now that seems ingenious. We apparently should start to shoot those pesky protesting peasants with rubber bullets.

Remember dear folks, every one of you has sacred obligation to donate everything to defence of Ukraine ( https://cpi.ti-ukraine.org/en/ ), without even questioning what is happening with it afterwards. Your family business, personal belongings, means of sustaining you and your family, up to the very last Eskimo giving up fishook of his grandfather.

Because, our Zeleban "doesn't care" about anything that is happening beyond some trench in this complicated world and he clearly thinks everyone in European Union can start to live on social at any given moment.

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

So, you have said enough arguments to draw a conclusion. Ukrainians are arrogant, corrupt bastards with Soviet faces, who themselves blocked the border with Poland and blame the Poles for this. It is necessary to immediately close the border with them, ending their support. Help suffering Polish farmers instead.

Right...I think I was very clear when writing about Border Guards with post-Soviet mental at these crossings, not "your nation as a whole", literally in next sentence writing about immense courage of soldiers? But hey, we listen what we want to.

And about the issue of border...ok, no bribes are taken, everything is fine. Just what a guy who for last two years chiefly hang around among volunteers travelling between Rzeszów and Donbas on weekly basis can know about, right? Meanwhile, could you tell me, how many hours you or your friends spend waiting in lines for some stamp in papers in on Medyka-Shegine? Hrebenne-Rawa Ruska? Perhaps Korczowa -Krakoviec? How many border guards on both sides you know by personal names? What concrete, actual and effective measures where taken there to uproot institutional corruption there  and- much worse- actually fight with prevalent culture of bribes  as accepted among wide population in the last 2 years? You know what "border pilot" practice was? How hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainian males in conscription age found themselves in EU (not that I would blame them, btw.)?

1 hour ago, Tenses said:

Ok, I really have read enough of this. You are having serious problems with proper assessment of what polish society is and what is not.

Leave detailed explanations, guy is on another self-contradicting emotional rant to somehow rationalize (= "we are doomed") situation and find guilty. It's small tradition of this board already.

Edited March 2 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

2 hours ago, Tenses said:

Ok, I really have read enough of this. You are having serious problems with proper assessment of what polish society is and what is not.

First of all I don’t like farmers, just as Beleg85 said, they are not likable in overall polish society. I guess that it might be something with millions of donations from EU, retirement system where they effectively have it granted for free and a couple of other things. When farmers across EU started their protests by blocking centers of big cities with farming equipment worth in excess of 1 million euros each, it also was not very understandable by people in traffic jams worrying that they will be late to their, oh so well, paid job. But overall this is actually nothing compared to how „likable” are agro-oligarchs in Ukraine. You are now standing in their defense and I would love to see how much of the money they earn is supporting the war. They basically try to abuse unfair competition on EU markets in order to make money, but looking at the financial statements, I don’t see anything like „war tax” in defense of their country, soil that have given them free money, could you please explain me this? How does that compare to billions in direct financial and material support from western countries?

After 2014, when immigration to Poland from Ukraine has increased tenfold, the overall sentiment for Ukrainian people was not perfect in Poland during the start of the war in 2022. Especially among low paid workers, additional competition on job market with low wage expectations were seen as danger. Situation was similar to our US friends, who can elaborate more on overall sentiment toward Mexicans and South American people. Invasion started on 24^th of February, my wife spent entire weekend starting 26^th on the border, serving hot meals and distributing blankets to the wave of people in need. Week later we went for the local train station, looked around and took home a mother with a child, who have not even spoken a word in Polish/English. She stayed with us for half a year, when she found suitable job and shelter. My then-boss took a family of 8 and even took care of one girl, who was in the middle of chemotherapy, so she could finish it in Poland without problems. This is just a small part of what happened at that time, no one asked questions, no one was whining, because these were people in dire need. Do you think I liked to have a stranger mother with spoiled child in my home? I didn’t, but this is not the point in helping other people to like that. It is to do that effectively and provide whatever is needed despite your feelings or likening. If you will ever work with people like that, you will learn that this is no simple, nor nice task.

Now you are telling me that polish people have showed that they don’t give a **** about Ukraine because they don’t want to give billions of Euro to your corrupted oligarchs, who are most likely closely connected with Russia. Not to mention some of their perfidious actions, which are gaining better coverage in Poland, which directly hit polish stock holders(so effectively all polish people due to retirement system). You must understand that Ukraine has a long way to go before it will be normal country and I am not even saying about the war. Believe me, Poland was on the same track 35 years ago, but it serves as an example that even if things are not perfect, it is doable. At the moment Ukraine is corrupted as were all post Soviet countries, but it is not that important as long as the war goes. This WILL be important, when the war finally ends to continue normal cooperation with the western countries and their business. Hopefully Ukraine will join EU, but it has so much work to do.

And just as a reminder, borders were open to Ukrainian grain, which is not up to EU standards due to blocked export channel through the Black Sea. Now, thanks to marvelous work of Ukrainian drone fleet, this is not an issue anymore, so what exactly are we talking about? No military/humanitarian or other aid was ever blocked, save for some mistakes, nor will be. This is all about bunch of bastards, who want to profit from the blood of your countryman.

You started your opus especially funny. I despise Polish farmers, but I support them in the fight against Ukraine. That is, you hate Ukrainians even more than Polish farmers, right?

It feels like you don’t read my posts. I write about millions of Ukrainians suffering from war and in need of support. But you see me and the rest of the Ukrainians as agro-oligarchs who got rich with EU help and are taking a piece of bread from ordinary Poles.

Your passage about Mexicans is also amusing. As I pointed out earlier, Poles are very similar to a certain group of Americans.

Yes, and I am very sorry for you and your wife, for all the inconvenience that the dirty Ukrainian refugees and their spoiled children caused you. I can imagine the disgust you have endured all this time.

 

Regarding the drone park and the unblocked sea route from Odessa. I assume you have already heard the latest news from Odessa? The Russians attacked the sea terminal where "agro-oligarchic grain" is loaded. So the situation with maritime logistics is far from normal