How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

That's a wee bit misleading.

Imports from Belarus and Russia are tiny, and limited to non-sanctioned food stuffs. And there might be a ban on that as well if they follow Latvia's footsteps.

Yes, it is part of media campaign many Ukrainian media outlets started circa 2-3 weeks ago, out of a sudden (not without a cause; it's not only about country being in war, many of them belong to the same grain oligarchs who earn a lot on unrestricted access to EU markets). That being said, there are likely some Russian products imported here, but probably not directly- i.e. in the same way grain and oil are circling on wide global markets through middle-men in Kazakhstan, Turkey etc. (sometimes these chains have dozens of links). It is effectivelly very difficult to control flow of such goods in global economy, casus of Latvia is good example here- even them couldn't avoid Russian grain on their market. This article in UP did seem moved some strings though- people here don't like to think they have anything to do with Russian goods and it is likely more care will now be put to these chains. Perhaps companies who sell such stuff can even soon be taxed extra or put under special attention of financial controll.

Overall, we are witnessing the same painfull and ugly bargaining process I wrote several times about. Yermak believed that he can levarage new PL government much better than previous one to pacify (how?) farmers, but their situation became so dire that even Brussels-connected Tusk cannot ignore their pleas anymore. So Kyiv tries way of vox populi now, directed toward domestic and international public, which has additional benefit of grounding negative societal emotions into PL grain issue instead of situation at the front. Articles full of fakes published by previously solid media, armies of bots (hard to tell which them are Russian accounts and which genuinely Ukrainian), some theatrical displays by politicians- all is at play right now. Next stage in this small escalation ladder will likely be ban of PL goods by Kyiv, if there will be no settelment reached.

Naturally Russians stooges feast on it on both sides, despite very clear messages- in almost every sentence expressed by gov officials here and validate by all other international actions- that this is only about this business issues and country stance regarding Russian invasion did not changed. It is structural problem, always has been frankly, and needs complex solutions. But before that happens, we will see a lot of ugly stuff and histerias rolling over this issue. So be prepared in advance and don't get baitedby leads only.

Edited March 1 by Beleg85

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I guess there is such a thing as airborne meat waves. 

Isn't it rather an indication that the Ukrainian claims have been significantly overstated? I can't imagine Russians going on as if nothing happened if they lost 13 SU-34/35 per week. That is ca. 10% of their entire fleet of those aircraft.

I am inclined to think that the Russians only lost those 2 planes whose crash has been confirmed by photos. 

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

That being said, there are likely some Russian products imported here, but probably not directly- i.e. in the same way grain and oil are circling on wide global markets through middle-men in Kazakhstan, Turkey etc. (sometimes these chains have dozens of links)

But in the video, a Ukrainian journalist, allegedly on behalf of a Belarusian company, negotiates directly with a Polish company to sell rapeseed. Without any intermediaries.

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

but their situation became so dire that even Brussels-connected Tusk cannot ignore their pleas anymore.

Poor farmers in Poland. I always remember their emaciated, exhausted faces from malnutrition during rocket attacks on Russia. At these moments I feel a little better - it turns out there are people on earth who suffer more than me.

But in general, you will agree that the protest of a small number of marginalized people in Poland has expanded significantly. Now they are supported by the majority of the Polish population and even the Polish government.

And soon we will see how Ukrainians, taking pity on the plight of Polish farmers, will begin to collect donations for them in order to protect them from starvation. How wrong I was about Ukraine’s allies earlier.

Edited March 1 by Zeleban

[squatter]

On 2/28/2024 at 12:21 PM, The_Capt said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Washington's_crossing_of_the_Delaware_River

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Plunder

And of course the big one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Overlord

And let’s pull some doctrine in: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/3-90-12/fm3-90-12.pdf

So adding this all up, essentially it has and can be done but there are a lot of caveats.

Well I'm not sure that a bunch of musketmen successfully crossing a river is a helpful analogue to attempting to cross in a modern near-pear environment observed by drones, attacked by FPVs, PGMs, glide bombs etc. Neither are the WW2 comparisons where the crossing points were more or less unmolested because the enemy didn't have the means to interdict.  

I would say "adding this all up" it hasnt and can't be done. Of course the 'cant' can be argued over but this is precisely our point of difference. You believe it can, I disagree. 

On 2/28/2024 at 12:21 PM, The_Capt said:

Ok, so this one opens up the question of how well prepared are the RA forces on the other side?  Light forces have proven pretty important in this war.  They were critical in the first month pretty much everywhere and at Kharkiv constituted the breakout force.  If the RA has built a heavy line of defence as you seem to indicate then you may be correct.  But have they?

I think we have to assume RUS has built sufficient defences to handle light forces. They have been there two years now. Yes 'russia sux' but if you're banking on them being unprepared for what you're describing, you're most likely walking into a trap.

 

On 2/28/2024 at 12:21 PM, The_Capt said:

That is exactly the objective of a bunch of light forces running rampant in the backfield.  

It's this idea that UKR can get a bunch of WW2 SAS type flying columns buzzing around RUS LoCs that I find totally fanciful. Anything moving on this battlefield is subject to any number of lethal threats. To be seen is to be killed. In any case, likelihood is anything light that gets across will very quickly bump up against fortifications they will be unable to pass. Comparisons to the Kharkiv counteroffensive are unrealistic cos completely different circumstances (RUS forces depleted, not dug in, etc). 

 

On 2/28/2024 at 12:21 PM, The_Capt said:

Because the RA will have to pull these (shrinking) assets from somewhere else.  This is the minimum objective by the way.  If the RA cannot or does not have “reserves” then an opportunity to redraw the lines south of Kherson presents itself.  

Considering cross-river operations as a way of extending the front and testing the size of RUS reserves is an interesting point to raise. Genuine question: which side UKR or RUS would benefit most from extending the battle front? ie which side has greater reserves? 

 

On 2/28/2024 at 12:21 PM, The_Capt said:

So the real question is not in your response or reasoning.  They are not “can it be done” or “will it do anything?”  The real question is: does the UA have the forces and capabilities to do it at scale?  This we do not know and will have to simply wait and see.

Ultimately I think you are engaging in semantics here. The question absolutely is 'can it be done', because 'it' is 'crossing the river at scale', exactly what we have been debating. 

But you are right we will see. My position is that it is copium to imagine that UKR has the ability to make significant advances in any sector of the front (short of significant change in balance of forces via either Western supplies or ongoing attrition taking effect in ways it hasn't yet produced), Dniepr or otherwise. I get that folks want to be positive about UKR's position in the war, but I think that's leading some to dream impossible dreams.

And that's why I think we need to bring about an end to this carnage because we are well and truly into 1916 territory in terms of senseless slaughter over minimal gains.

[hcrof]

4 minutes ago, squatter said:

And that's why I think we need to bring about an end to this carnage because we are well and truly into 1916 territory in terms of senseless slaughter over minimal gains.

I don't disagree about the 1916 analogy but how do you think the warring sides would have made peace in 1916? Under what terms? And who would enforce them?

Edit: and wasn't the war being fought in french and russian territory in 1916 due to rapid early advances by the central powers? And who won in the end?

Edited March 1 by hcrof
Extra point

[Mindestens]

26 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

But in general, you will agree that the protest of a small number of marginalized people in Poland has expanded significantly. Now they are supported by the majority of the Polish population and even the Polish government.

Yeah, no, I'm gonna have to stop you right there because politically there's simply no such possibility that a majority of Polish population supports these protests.

The 'expanded significantly' protest groups include farmers and miners, both of which have really bad rep among about half the voting population. You know, the half that just a couple of months ago had the biggest election turnout in the history of the country to reject PiS government.

Farmers are often viewed by the so-called centre as anti-EU PiS or Konfederacja supporters (hard right), their retirement program is widely hated among them and there's a sentiment that they are no 'ordinary farmers' in the traditional sense but more akin to entrepreneurs/bussinessmen who happen to have a company dealing in agriculture.

Miners are hated due to high salaries, their retirement program viewed as privilage and being effective labour group working in it's interest.

Both groups are widely hated for historically organising any kind of protest in cities or blocking highways.

Then the liberal left often hates both because they are seen as an obstacle to a more green and eco-friendly future.

We're talking about people with political identity who just overturned a government that was viewed by them as too reliant on farmers and miners. In recent months the anti-ukrainian tendencies might show stronger but believe me when I say so, people I'm talking about will rather support Ukrainians than farmers or miners in any such border 'conflict'.

 

 

[Kinophile]

The line for navalnys funeral keeps growing. I doubt the police will let everything go off without a hitch. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Poor farmers in Poland. I always remember their emaciated, exhausted faces from malnutrition during rocket attacks on Russia. At these moments I feel a little better - it turns out there are people on earth who suffer more than me.

They are not emaciated, and they should not be.  Poland was willing to transfer a very significant part of our military equipment, accept a huge number of refugees, pay for Starlink terminals, act as one of the most active diplomatic supporters of the Ukraine, etc. We even took an Ukrainian SAM which killed 2 Poles and desperately tried to pretend it was Russian missile until we could not pretend anymore. But why gut a significant part of agricultural industry? That is unnecessary and a step too far.

Especially since - as far as we know - in the Ukraine the grain export is a business of equally not emaciated and well nutritioned oligarchs and multinationals, who would like to make a better margin through cutting transportation costs and dumping the goods immediately after crossing the border. That is not a very appealing cause.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, squatter said:

Well I'm not sure that a bunch of musketmen successfully crossing a river is a helpful analogue to attempting to cross in a modern near-pear environment observed by drones, attacked by FPVs, PGMs, glide bombs etc. Neither are the WW2 comparisons where the crossing points were more or less unmolested because the enemy didn't have the means to interdict.  

I would say "adding this all up" it hasnt and can't be done. Of course the 'cant' can be argued over but this is precisely our point of difference. You believe it can, I disagree. 

I think we have to assume RUS has built sufficient defences to handle light forces. They have been there two years now. Yes 'russia sux' but if you're banking on them being unprepared for what you're describing, you're most likely walking into a trap.

 

It's this idea that UKR can get a bunch of WW2 SAS type flying columns buzzing around RUS LoCs that I find totally fanciful. Anything moving on this battlefield is subject to any number of lethal threats. To be seen is to be killed. In any case, likelihood is anything light that gets across will very quickly bump up against fortifications they will be unable to pass. Comparisons to the Kharkiv counteroffensive are unrealistic cos completely different circumstances (RUS forces depleted, not dug in, etc). 

 

Considering cross-river operations as a way of extending the front and testing the size of RUS reserves is an interesting point to raise. Genuine question: which side UKR or RUS would benefit most from extending the battle front? ie which side has greater reserves? 

 

Ultimately I think you are engaging in semantics here. The question absolutely is 'can it be done', because 'it' is 'crossing the river at scale', exactly what we have been debating. 

But you are right we will see. My position is that it is copium to imagine that UKR has the ability to make significant advances in any sector of the front (short of significant change in balance of forces via either Western supplies or ongoing attrition taking effect in ways it hasn't yet produced), Dniepr or otherwise. I get that folks want to be positive about UKR's position in the war, but I think that's leading some to dream impossible dreams.

And that's why I think we need to bring about an end to this carnage because we are well and truly into 1916 territory in terms of senseless slaughter over minimal gains.

Kinda looks like you have constructed a fortress of opinion.  As I noted, almost every major military water crossing in history has been led by lighter forces establishing a bridgehead:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Badr_(1973)#:~:text=Operation Badr (Arabic%3A عملية بدر,Peninsula%2C on 6 October 1973.

So the ability to push light forces across a water obstacle and support them is not new or novel.   Nor are commando raids.  Combining these two into sustained effect is the question - again, I assess as not only possible but plausible.

As to UA light forces “buzzing around RU LOCs = fanciful”, they have already demonstrated this on repeated occasions in this war.  First at Kyiv and then later at Kharkiv and Kherson.  I think the issue here is you appear to have a bias against what light forces are capable of accomplishing.  You then are combining this with over-subscribing their logistical and support demands.  This is conceptual model that is pre-disposed to a “too hard for too little” frame which frankly appears unassailable even in the face of counter facts.

You “think” Russia has created sufficient defences?  Again, you appear to be enamoured by your own opinion here.  I laid out the likely force-to-space issues Russia is facing.  Even accounting for modern ISR and fire power those troop densities will be challenged to do much about a sustained Ukrainian force on their side of the river…like they already have had for months at Krynky.  But you blow past that with the power of “what I think”.

As to effect on “reserves” well time and place matter.  Right now those Russian reserves are supporting Russian attacks and c-moves up near Adiivka as they try to gain more ground.  If the RA has to pull them all the way to Kherson it will impact the RAs ability to exploit or make new gains.  Further pushing support down to Kherson and sustaining it causes lateral friction over several hundred kms which is never a bad thing.

I think it is your last sentence that clearly demonstrates your position.  You are not here to discuss the viability or pros and cons of a possible UA operation.  You have already answered that question and locked the cognitive door.  You are instead here to promote the futility of Ukraine continuing this war and are instead pushing the idea that due to that futility they should sue for peace.  This is the line from several parties on this forum before and really adds little to the discussion or analysis.

However, on this “all is lost Ukraine, beg for peace” (which is a pro-Russian narrative), for that to be true Ukraine would need to be completely out of strategic or operational options.  In addition, Russia would also need to be out of options or content with whatever gains they have to merit a “good enough” endstate.  None of those conditions are clearly proven.  Ukraine still has one big strategic option - defend and bleed the RA out.  Russia has given no indication of what its negotiated end-state would look like.  So as to “call it a day”, I do not think we are there yet by either pre-condition metric.

As to Kherson and a possible light operation.  Well no point discussing because you have already made up your mind in support of you larger argument…which is also, to be frank, fundamentally flawed.

Edited March 1 by The_Capt

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

The continuous comedian approach on the russian army and state, didn't help the overall effort I think. 

It is my biggest gripe in this forum. Closely followed by the idea russia is hanging on by mere threads, collapsing any day now.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

But in the video, a Ukrainian journalist, allegedly on behalf of a Belarusian company, negotiates directly with a Polish company to sell rapeseed. Without any intermediaries.

https://tvn24.pl/biznes/z-kraju/polska-moze-wprowadzic-embargo-na-import-z-rosji-i-bialorusi-premier-donald-tusk-wyjasnia-st7797293

They are analizing such situations and likely will put embargo on these imports. There are also goods imported from Belarus that were never under any sanctions, but I am unceratin if rapeseed is among them (sorry, I am in train now and can't check).

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Poor farmers in Poland. I always remember their emaciated, exhausted faces from malnutrition during rocket attacks on Russia. At these moments I feel a little better - it turns out there are people on earth who suffer more than me.

I don't get where are you again pointing at by comparing situation of a guy living country at war and the one that is not. So local farmer going broke should actually be indeed happy, cause somebody in Africa is hungry and is in worse situation? Now that is optimistic attitude.

Zaleban, don't start another quarrel over nothingburger please. And note I am not their spokesmen too.

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

But in general, you will agree that the protest of a small number of marginalized people in Poland has expanded significantly. Now they are supported by the majority of the Polish population and even the Polish government.

And soon we will see how Ukrainians, taking pity on the plight of Polish farmers, will begin to collect donations for them in order to protect them from starvation. How wrong I was about Ukraine’s allies earlier.

And here we go again. Should we spend another several pages to prove you that entire world didn't start, out of a sudden, to conspire against Ukraine? Which is it, 3rd or 4th? Last time you projected that Ukraine will surely fall till December, at the start of the year at the most. Now you found yourself a reason for some Dolchstoss theory?

This is not small number of people, there is 1,3 mln households in entire country that has something to do with farming. And not, not every protest was anti-Ukrainian, not even majority; but to know this, you would need entire picture of situation, not the one oligarchic media coctail serves you now. In Augustów for example protesters on one of largest meetings put UA banners on display, in many others they underlined constantly they are not political but have no choice due to prices murdering their small business (unlike UA, farming here is not concentrated in giant holdings but chiefly small or middle business; average farmer cannot simply walk into PM office like mr. Kosjuk or mr. Verevsky). There were places where Russian stooges were kicked off, in others they were not. Public opinion is very divided over this issue (note: Russia loves this, not only external but also internal divisions); form of protests is usually condemned but not the essence- this problem of unfair prices on food products needs to be resolved sooner or later anyway. Fo new government, who has much more important things on its head (they try to fix rule of law issues left by predecessors) it is hot potato, but one you cannot simply throw back. Also no vital military or humanitarian help was blocked and decision to turn main border crossings legally under critical infastructure was actually rather bold one on Tusk' side.

You probably don't realise, but in most places farmers are prostesting chiefly against Green Deal like everywhere in Union, with entire Ukrainian issue in the background. It all depends where you look at; note they also block not only Polish export at the borders, but also internal ways of communcation, occassionally city centers and such, which has nothing to do with Ukraine. Border is only part of the much larger problem.

So no, heavens out of a sudden didn't fall on Ukraine's heads.  It's normal neigbour issue taking place in very bad time for you; we had dozens of such in last decade only (to put "train wars" over some tariffs that just broke before the war as example; it was still linging in first months), and society is firmly anti-Russian and mostly pro-Ukrainian still. But that doesn't mean they like to get treated like economical loosers by- always extremely pragmatic when comes to economy- Kyiv's ruling circles, and that seems to be indeed prevalent perception now. Artificial hysterias are not helpful in building solutions.

[Kraft]

A few comments by Ben Hodges on the Macron/Scholz/lack of clearly defined strategy situation

Edited March 1 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

On 3/1/2024 at 8:31 AM, Kraft said:

It is my biggest gripe in this forum. Closely followed by the idea russia is hanging on by mere threads, collapsing any day now.

I have never fully subscribed to "LOLZ Russia" or "Russia Sux".  Nor does a steady stream of one-sided war porn change that.  As to the second point: a major personal gripe on this forum is "Monster Russia!."  Undersubscribing Russia is as big a sin as oversubscribing Russia.  We have posters who need to continually take the worst case for Ukraine, and best case for Russia at every instance.  This is not healthy or useful, and as harmful as the overtly "LOLZ Russia" narratives

I gotta be honest, I am astounded on what is still holding Russia together.  As I said, I re-visited Oryx after a long absence and for tanks and AFVs, Russia has lost 3x what Ukraine had as their entire fleets at the beginning of the war.  We have continually seen signs of Russian strain: lower quality equipment showing up at the front, conscription of excess human capacity, mass migration out of Russia, buying ammo from NK (FFS).  However, one has to simply shake ones head at the level of Russian obstinance in all this.  I am not sure how they are holding their military together right now based on these losses.  Further, the shock of this war on Russia cannot be understated.  Does anyone think Putin planned for all this?  That Russian society was ready for this?  No western nation would be ready for something like this war, the shock would cripple us.  Imagine if Iraq in '03 had turned into something like this war; it would have broken the West.

So what?  Well first off, Russia clearly is not in great shape and their performance in this war compared to the advertising has fallen woefully short.  Russian resilience is high, I will give them that.  Yet we do not know where that breaking point is for them - further, they could have already crossed it...these sorts of things do not happen fast, until they do.  But...and it is a big "but", Russia does have a breaking point.  Every nation/society/human collective on earth has a breaking point.  Russia is not invincible and homogeneous.  Under enough stress it will fracture - economically, militarily and socially.  What we have is a competition of breaking points - ours, Ukraine and Russia's.  Our "breaking point" in the West (US in particular) is laughably low.  I suspect Ukraine's breaking point is further out than Russia's as of all the parties to this conflict, only Ukraine is facing direct existential crisis.  The question really is: can weak western will plus desperate Ukrainian will defeat Russian (??? metric ???) will?  One can immediately see the two major variables here.  Western will and Russian will are the two players on a Ukrainian fulcrum.  The location of that fulcrum depends on how much western support we provide to Ukraine.

I stand by my position that militarily this war has already been won; however, that does not mean it cannot still be lost.  If the West totally fails Ukraine, Russia will take ground - it, in effect, expands Russian option spaces.  Russian airpower seems intent on flexing, perhaps eyeing air superiority again.  A complete withdrawal of US support is a strategic mistake of historic proportions.  It is essentially ceding a proxy war and Ukraine could enter the annals with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan of lost US ventures.  The rest of the West will need to step up.  If Ukraine falters, as some have insisted, then the whole conversation is moot.  If the fulcrum shatters, there is no war.  The West will write it off to "bad investment" and re-draw the lines.

The longer I watch this war, the more in awe of what the WW1 and WW2 generations went through.  We see those wars through the safe lens of history.  It is another thing entirely to be in the middle of one with the future unwritten.

Edited March 2 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I don't disagree about the 1916 analogy but how do you think the warring sides would have made peace in 1916? Under what terms? And who would enforce them?

Edit: and wasn't the war being fought in french and russian territory in 1916 due to rapid early advances by the central powers? And who won in the end?

My advice is to steer clear of this one.  I am getting strong Macgregor vibes - not interested in actual military analysis...pushing a political position.

[Chibot Mk IX]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Isn't it rather an indication that the Ukrainian claims have been significantly overstated? I can't imagine Russians going on as if nothing happened if they lost 13 SU-34/35 per week. That is ca. 10% of their entire fleet of those aircraft.

I am inclined to think that the Russians only lost those 2 planes whose crash has been confirmed by photos. 

First rule of Aerial warfare. Divide the wartime claimed kills by 3 (sometime even have to divide it by 7)

 

Also, Russia could develop then filed something similar to ADM-160 MALD decoy missile/drone.

[Kraft]

Stepove, russian infantry supported tank

Edited March 1 by Kraft

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, Kraft said:

A few comments by Ben Hodges on the Macron/Scholz/lack of clearly defined strategy situation

This entire debate about boots on the ground is interesting one...like everyone pretends that Texeira papers didn't mentioned specific numbers of operators already in the country or French gandarmerie (and likely many others) protecting Zelensky.

Btw. is it true that Taurus needs trained NATO crew to feed targets to its systems that SCALP does not (sorry if answered, I have week-long lag on the topic)?

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

Stepove, russian infantry supported tank

Jesus, what we are even looking at.

Offensive is going pretty well I see.

Edited March 1 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I stand by my position that militarily this war has already been won; however, that does not mean it cannot still be lost.  If the West totally fails Ukraine, Russia will take ground - it, in effect, expands Russian option spaces.  Russian airpower seems intent on flexing, perhaps eyeing air superiority again.  A complete withdrawal of US support is a strategic mistake of historic proportions.  It is essentially ceding a proxy war and Ukraine could enter the annals with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan of lost US ventures.  The rest of the West will need to step up.  If Ukraine falters, as some have insisted, then the whole conversation is moot.  If the fulcrum shatters, there is no war.  The West will write it off to "bad investment" and re-draw the lines.

I think this understates the situation considerably. Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were peripheral wars that did not seriously affect the US strategic position. Ukraine is a war to defend the outer ramparts of the EU...which is where the US has 50% of its trade and gets 50% of its foreign investment. And a failure of will there has implications for perceptions of American will over Taiwan, future confrontations over NATO, etc. 

Munich is the most abused analogy in modern history...which is a shame...because it applies here.

[billbindc]

How do folks from India get snookered into being fodder for meat assaults in far Ukraine? Le Monde has your answer: 

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2024/02/29/des-indiens-recrutes-a-leur-insu-dans-l-armee-russe_6219341_3210.html

Edited March 1 by billbindc

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1685570344717832192

Some excerpts from interview with Storm-Z member; autotranslated but you can get vibes:

Typically, Zolkin and Karpenko publish videos of prisoners of war talking about the horrors at the front. Here, Karpenko called a prisoner from "Sztorm-Z" [Sztorm-z are mainly prisoners conscripted into the army and sent to the front], who had already been exchanged, and he talked about the horrors in his own country... There is a lot of vulgarity in the direct message, but without it it is impossible to convey the essence of the matter.

The prisoners are blamed for surrendering to captivity instead of blowing themselves up "For ****'s sake they had people here working with their tongue - you surrendered to slavery, you didn't blow yourself up. It really moved me. In our hospital, one idiot even attacked us - some ****ing "patriot" started calling us names - why didn't you blow yourself up? < ...> You are guided by the visual assessment of those who are taking you captive. If you see that people are determined not to kill you, you behave the same way. This means that they realize that you do not have to die, nor does anyone else . <...> Some of them are attacking us - why did you surrender? ****s who weren't on the front line.

As civilians, they have absolutely no rights. "You're a whore-knows-what. They won't hire you anywhere. Nowhere. You twat, remember this. That's what they tell you to your face here. <...> How they treat us - we are "doubtful", just like in prison are "outcasts are questionable" - the same. They don't let me get the documents to start buying HIV treatment.

They want to return to Ukraine. "I want to talk to you. I remember the times when I was there. I was in Kolomyia, in Chernivtsi, in Kiev. I can't say anything bad, not even a little bit. I once fell asleep on a bench in Kiev [before the war]. In the morning, an old lady woke me up, gave me a dumpling [apparently brutal crack in Kremlin propaganda- me]. I'm screaming - Grandma, I'm thirsty. She left, came back and brought me a bottle of wine. This is your Ukraine. In Moscow, they will throw you off the bench, kick you in the head, call the police and tell you what kind of scum is lying here."

Tired of what is happening. "The country has changed, there has been [social] decay. People are confused, they have concrete sombreros [Russian slang - a closed, limited mind], everyone is waiting for something, everyone is like dogs. <...> I asked around a bit and it turned out, that no one wants it [in Russia]. All this is driving everyone crazy. No one wants to be part of this 'collider'. ****, it's not worth it. It's really not worth it."

 

[buena]

During WWI soldiers in trenches spent a lot of time trying to blow each other up by building tunnels under the enemy trenches. We haven't seen anything like that in Ukraine. Is there any info about tunnels being used, either to blow enemy trenches or to move underground?

[Harmon Rabb]

15 hours ago, billbindc said:

David Sacks is a toxic gnome, a bad poker player, a hanger on to Elon Musk and a Peter Thiel intimate with whom at Stanford he wrote that rape was typically really just “belated regret”. He’s always run in their slipstream and acts as their errrand boy, cheerleader and fixer. These days, he’s most firmly tied to Musk who has numerous financial and legal entanglements that would be very much served with a Trump win in November. So, Sacks is doing his best to support Musk’s Trumpian line. That’s really all there is to it.

Thank you for the explanation Bill, makes sense that he stands to gain something form this. I don't think a public figure would spend so much time promoting the narrative of a genocidal regime, that is increasingly hostile towards his country. Well Wikipedia says David was born in South Africa, but I'm sure he has his U.S. citizenship by now. If he had nothing to gain from it personally.

I don't follow politics as much as you but my money is on Biden winning in November anyway.

14 hours ago, Sojourner said:

He seems to have overlooked the fact that Russia also shipped vital weapons off to Ukraine and is in more far worse shape today than it was before the war in Ukraine.

Not to get into boring details but I work in tech myself (Sorry I'm not an awesome fighter pilot/lawyer in real life ) so I may have some perspective on this. Tech can be a very cutthroat sector and while the industry leaders who succeed in it are not always moral (David is a great example) they are in my experience rarely stupid.

I bet David knows what he is pushing is nonsense and he is smart enough to understand how poorly this war has been going for Russia. His intention is to do what he can to make support for Ukraine less popular. Unfortunately he seems to be friends with Elon who is giving him a platform for spreading his disinformation.

This is why I'm grateful for the folks in NAFO, for spending their free time calling this Sack of **** out.

Edited March 1 by Harmon Rabb

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

It is my biggest gripe in this forum. Closely followed by the idea russia is hanging on by mere threads, collapsing any day now.

To be fair, official Ukrainian sources have mocked the Russians for stupidity, incompetence, greed, single-mindedness, wastefulness, etc.   Sometimes, it's a propaganda advantage to do so.

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Quote

Today, we have a new military support package for our soldiers from the Netherlands. By the way, the Netherlands is actively helping us with air defense, with the F-16 coalition. This year, new fighters will be in our skies, and this year we have to make it an effective one in defending ourselves against Russian guided bombs, Russian aircraft, and missiles.

 

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, Air Force Commander Oleshchuk, and Defense Minister Umerov held a special military briefing for Mark Rutte on the situation at the front, on our capabilities in active operations and defense in specific areas. Of course, we also talked about Kharkiv. I am grateful for the readiness of the Netherlands to continue to help. This is a really strong visit today. I am grateful to Mark personally and to all the people of the Netherlands for their support of Ukraine.

 

The key thing is that Russia has to lose. And our country, our partners, must restore security. We are doing everything for this. And I thank everyone who helps!

 

Glory to Ukraine!

Good news.

Edited March 1 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

59 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think this understates the situation considerably. Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were peripheral wars that did not seriously affect the US strategic position. Ukraine is a war to defend the outer ramparts of the EU...which is where the US has 50% of its trade and gets 50% of its foreign investment. And a failure of will there has implications for perceptions of American will over Taiwan, future confrontations over NATO, etc. 

Munich is the most abused analogy in modern history...which is a shame...because it applies here.

I think you are understating Vietnam and Iraq - peace on Afghanistan (a backwater that every empire needs to take a run at for some reason).  The internal repercussions of Vietnam on the American psyche were enormous.  Iraqs geopolitical train wreck in the making is not small either. 

As to defence of “EU ramparts because $$$”.  Let’s not oversubscribe trade - 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States

China - who many in the US government are openly selling as unavoidable war guys - is higher in trade than the EU.  On Direct Foreign investment, however, you are correct it is about 50%.

As to shoring ramparts - I think you hit upon the main point and it is not money.  It is perception.  US leadership and dominance depends a lot on perception.  If the US is seen retreating from this war it could turn into an inverted Vietnam.  Rather than inward impacts of self-doubt etc, we will see outward impact of doubt.  My sense is the US internally really is not going to be impacted if Ukraine fails.  Some will feel bad but no one is going to question the entire American Experiment inside the US because of this war.  They very well might outside of the US.  If Ukraine loses this war or even has to sue for peace from a position of weakness, you can use an egg timer to measure the time before cries of “Final US death rattle” start being flung around.

EDIT:  This sent me on a bit of a journey on US FDI: 

Good lord it constitutes 41% of US GDP? https://santandertrade.com/en/portal/establish-overseas/united-states/foreign-investment#:~:text=For the year as a,41.1% of the country's GDP.

US outward foreign investment: 

Easy to see who the favorite is in all this.

Edited March 1 by The_Capt