LongLeftFlank Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022224-feature-russia-defiant-two-years-into-war-reshaping-global-energy Nice infographic, for those interested: Interesting that in spite of its stated intent to remain neutral in the conflict (partly in gratitude to Russia for its past support), energy-hungry Vietnam is not a significant importer of Russian oil. Edited February 25 by LongLeftFlank 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Not very heartwarming assesment of state of defence lines behind Acdiivka, in village of Lastochkine. Basically it crosscover with what I heard from volunteers who travelled extensively to the East with humanitarian help. While Ukrainian soldiers can dug up fast and usually hold lines dodgedly, next lines of defences behind current frontlines are very often prepared ad hoc, in simple manner or worse- non-existent. I don't know why, but UA command seems to often count on most optimistic turn of events or leave decisions to fortify ad infinitum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 29 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022224-feature-russia-defiant-two-years-into-war-reshaping-global-energy Nice infographic, for those interested: Interesting that in spite of its stated intent to remain neutral in the conflict (partly in gratitude to Russia for its past support), energy-hungry Vietnam is not a significant importer of Russian oil. Vietnam is a net exporter, no? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: Anyone else hearing about an uptick in Russian desertions? https://www.thestar.com/news/world/no-way-out-russia-faces-growing-problem-with-deserters-after-two-years-of-war-in/article_301e39f4-d194-11ee-b5c2-37d184ccc94b.html#:~:text=As the war in Ukraine,forcibly returned to his country. Hmm. Did the casualties finally reached the percentage where everyone knows someone who hasn't come back and are they starting to realize it's pointless? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Interesting little drone video. Almost looks like the Russian soldier is making an offering to the drone flying over him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: Not very heartwarming assesment of state of defence lines behind Acdiivka, in village of Lastochkine. Basically it crosscover with what I heard from volunteers who travelled extensively to the East with humanitarian help. While Ukrainian soldiers can dug up fast and usually hold lines dodgedly, next lines of defences behind current frontlines are very often prepared ad hoc, in simple manner or worse- non-existent. I don't know why, but UA command seems to often count on most optimistic turn of events or leave decisions to fortify ad infinitum. This might be one of the reasons for the Ukrainian command shuffle. 48 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said: Hmm. Did the casualties finally reached the percentage where everyone knows someone who hasn't come back and are they starting to realize it's pointless? This happening on the home front to some extent, or Putin would go ahead and call another round of mobilization, but I don't think it is what we are seeing at the front. At the front I think we are seeing a military caste system develop/expand as the war grinds on. Experienced units, and those with political connections function as barrier troops. New meat is beaten, robbed, and intimidated properly before it sent to man forward positions in absolute misery. Between this process becoming ever more obvious, and the horror of forward trenches in winter, desertions are rising. The big question, as it has always been, is can this cascade to large scale surrenders? Edited February 25 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 2 hours ago, Beleg85 said: Not very heartwarming assesment of state of defence lines behind Acdiivka, in village of Lastochkine. Basically it crosscover with what I heard from volunteers who travelled extensively to the East with humanitarian help. While Ukrainian soldiers can dug up fast and usually hold lines dodgedly, next lines of defences behind current frontlines are very often prepared ad hoc, in simple manner or worse- non-existent. I don't know why, but UA command seems to often count on most optimistic turn of events or leave decisions to fortify ad infinitum. I have seen elsewhere that Ukraine has prepared fortified positions on the Novobakhmutivka-Novoselivka-Karlivka line so fighting in the villages to the east of that is probably to blunt Russian momentum. It just depends how much territory Ukraine is prepared to cede and at what cost. Edited February 25 by Offshoot 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Quote Swedish opposition, prior to tomorrow's probable ratification of Sweden's accession to NATO by Hungary, pressure the government to immediately start talks on the supply of JAS-39 Gripen to Ukraine. A majority in parliament seems to support this move. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111994404908604461 https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/O8wx8A/trycket-okar-om-jas-till-ukraina 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 2 hours ago, Grigb said: We don't have actual numbers to evaluate it. What we do have is the number of deserters who contacted the organization that assists RU deserters. It is a small set, but it is all I have for now. Also I have heard that number of desertion court cases is also increased. A possible data issue, they account for Mobik vs Contractmeat, but not Wagner - if they are not included it heavily skews the results, as Wagner did most of the meatwaves and in in of itself had a very effective deserter suppression method. Edited February 25 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) The villages behind Avdiivka wont be defended much, the withdrawl is going several km back up the highground as far as I can tell Edited February 25 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 3rd brigade in Avdiivka 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anon052 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) At the moment there are a lot of videos of russian warcrimes and executions of ukrainian POW emerging. Nothing new. But I think this could be some kind of new systemic directive. Any thoughts? Or could be just the fact that constant drone coverage makes it more obvious. https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1761873688545120568 The unit in the second videos that does the mock executions calls themselves 'executioner" and publishes proudly their videos of warcrimes. Edited February 25 by Anon052 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 2 hours ago, billbindc said: Vietnam is a net exporter, no? IEA pulled their flow diagrams to 'replace' them and that project is years behind, so this is 2017 data from LLNL. To get to today, increase C&I use volumes by about 30%. This also predates the huge solar and wind buildouts of 2019-2021 although these aren't actually contributing huge volumes yet, due to EVN grid curtailments. Ha ha, no. They might possibly be, if China wasn't sitting on the Spratlys. Edited February 25 by LongLeftFlank 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 4 hours ago, The_Capt said: We looked at that left hook up near Belgorod, it just isn't viable… Oh I was always hoping for Valyuki (sp?) or whatever that little railway junction/military base town is just a bit past Kupyansk. Nothing much more ambitious than that; just force Russia to push the logistics back another 100km. Especially after the whole Russian Freedom Legion thing, I thought it would make sense to nibble a bit and establish some fortifications 1km into Russia proper, and mine the **** out of everything. Sure, it might force a mobilization, but the mobilization might force a bigger social collapse. 2 hours ago, TheVulture said: I mention it though because there is a short bit at the end about the Russians having restarted some testing with it as part of research in to forward-swept wings on drones to give much better manoeuvrability with a view to drone vs drone combat. Meh? Orlan 10 is already the right layout for maneuverable fixed wing drones (prop in front, vs in the back which lends stability). Maybe the Russians have had too much vodka. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) Anyone familiar or aware of this system? https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1650470511695085568?t=Pyvz1WwwpsQ8CZvX3diwOg&s=19 Quote The Pentagon gave Ukraine at least one Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) Engagement Operations Center (EOC). This is huge. IBCS connects sensors and effectors never designed to work together into one command and control system, so Quote air defense commanders can see and act on data across the entire battlefield more swiftly and use their shooters more efficiently. This is the most modern air defense command and control system on the planet. 2/2 Wiki: The United States Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense [IAMD] Battle Command System (IBCS) is a plug and fight network intended to let any defensive sensor (such as a radar) feed its data to any available weapon system (colloquially, "connect any sensor to any shooter").[1]: p.42 [a] The system is designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.[7][8][9] IBCS has been developed since 2004, with the aim to replace Raytheon's Patriot missile (SAM) engagement control station (ECS), along with seven other forms of ABM defense command systems. My real question is when did this happen? Edited February 25 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) Didn't Perun suggest the Gripen as best suited to UKR current needs? Yes he did.. https://youtu.be/-PCg-ba9tRI?feature=shared Edited February 26 by Kinophile 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, Kinophile said: Anyone familiar or aware of this system? https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1650470511695085568?t=Pyvz1WwwpsQ8CZvX3diwOg&s=19 Wiki: The United States Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense [IAMD] Battle Command System (IBCS) is a plug and fight network intended to let any defensive sensor (such as a radar) feed its data to any available weapon system (colloquially, "connect any sensor to any shooter").[1]: p.42 [a] The system is designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.[7][8][9] IBCS has been developed since 2004, with the aim to replace Raytheon's Patriot missile (SAM) engagement control station (ECS), along with seven other forms of ABM defense command systems. My real question is when did this happen? was under impression hes a not reliable source. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Let's hope this makes it: 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, FancyCat said: was under impression hes a not reliable source. Really? From where? He's a generalist in many ways but no dumdum.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 hours ago, Kinophile said: Anyone familiar or aware of this system? https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1650470511695085568?t=Pyvz1WwwpsQ8CZvX3diwOg&s=19 Wiki: The United States Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense [IAMD] Battle Command System (IBCS) is a plug and fight network intended to let any defensive sensor (such as a radar) feed its data to any available weapon system (colloquially, "connect any sensor to any shooter").[1]: p.42 [a] The system is designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase by intercepting with a hit-to-kill approach.[7][8][9] IBCS has been developed since 2004, with the aim to replace Raytheon's Patriot missile (SAM) engagement control station (ECS), along with seven other forms of ABM defense command systems. My real question is when did this happen? I suspect it's not a single "roll it off a C-5 and fire it up" system, but some framework for integrating everything that can output data. A little google shows that a lot of development and testing was still going on at least into late 2022. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 5 or 10 years from now we learn that it amounts to tying the stuff NG has been doing for this into the Ukrainian GIS Arta, along with any other sensor networks they have, and it's been going on for as long as we've been sending aid (including pre-Feb 2022, at least at the command level in Ukraine). The UA was the recipient of a lot of realtime intel from allies outside the country in 2022 and did a very fine job of exploiting it in a timely manner. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, chrisl said: I suspect it's not a single "roll it off a C-5 and fire it up" system, but some framework for integrating everything that can output data. A little google shows that a lot of development and testing was still going on at least into late 2022. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 5 or 10 years from now we learn that it amounts to tying the stuff NG has been doing for this into the Ukrainian GIS Arta, along with any other sensor networks they have, and it's been going on for as long as we've been sending aid (including pre-Feb 2022, at least at the command level in Ukraine). The UA was the recipient of a lot of realtime intel from allies outside the country in 2022 and did a very fine job of exploiting it in a timely manner. Apparently, in the per the various tweets, Poland was intended as first operator, then US. Reveal of a system in Ukraine before either of those was via Pentagon budget doc, namely asking for money to replace the system that instead went to Ukraine. I'm a gonna dig off Twitter, see what else I can find. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 8 hours ago, Kraft said: A possible data issue, they account for Mobik vs Contractmeat, but not Wagner - if they are not included it heavily skews the results, as Wagner did most of the meatwaves and in in of itself had a very effective deserter suppression method. Real Wagnerite group do not exist for like 6 months. And the majority of them stopped participating in combat after their withdrawal from Bakhmut 9 month ago. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Grigb said: Real Wagnerite group do not exist for like 6 months. And the majority of them stopped participating in combat after their withdrawal from Bakhmut 9 month ago. I dont understand what you mean. Data is jan23->jan24, so ~3 months of heavy city fighting would be included. This was done by convicts and the data shows the lowest desert numbers at that time, with which the '10' fold had been calculated. Also we are talking about a number that at its monthly highest, is a quarter of the daily killed and maimed, if taking the official estimates. Edited February 26 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 (edited) Avdiivka. RU fighters tested UKR Humvee armored windows. Windows withstood 3-4 close hits without penetration. Any further hits though most probably would result in penetration. What's interesting is that they used Igolnik cartridges. Quote 7N39, codename "Igolnik" cartridge, is an experimental cartridge with an armor-piercing bullet. The bullet core is a pointed alloy of tungsten carbide (92%) and cobalt (8%), formed by pressing metal powders and sintering. It penetrates a 24 mm thick ST3 sheet at a distance of 100 meters, the 6B23-1 bulletproof vest plate at 100 meters, and the 2P steel armor plate at 550 meters. P.S. @Battlefront.com I think you will need that data for CMWW3 Edited February 26 by Grigb 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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