How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Two years ago. How it begins. Hostomel

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I read Multicam is officially allowed in Russian army as an option (but not as a statutory uniform), which serviceman can buy for own money. So, some people of spetsnaz, different volunteer units, PMCs, who can buy this camo, use it

 

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

This is a video of A-50 burning. At least UKR General Staff confirmed A-50 only for yesterday. There was just information about Su-34 has disappeared from radars over Henichesk district of Kherson oblast, when it launched two Kh-59 on Kropyvnytskyi city.   

Aww. Fingers crossed... 

[Haiduk]

-1 TOS-1A, eastern outskirt of Avdiivka

 

[Kinophile]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is plausible as an explanation.  Or perhaps a combination of a SOF MANPAD action with an S-200 salvo.  Regardless it has to be driving the Russians crazy and has reinforced air denial within Russia itself.  The ground war may have devolved into a grinding stalemate but Ukraine has definitely upped its strategic strike game.  They need to move on from demonstrations though and onto campaigning to impact Russian options spaces.

Wouldn't eliminating all RUS Airborne Radars fall under that? Pretty critical component of the current RUS Air Warfare approach. Hits Strategically (limited national asset, but very difficult to replace), operationally (needed for war in Ukraine) and tactically (killing them affects RuAF use of glide bombs). 

[Haiduk]

UKR armor withdraws from Avdiivka. At 0:06 you can see AT-105. It's increadible, but they still in service since 2014, I didn't hear about new supplies. They mostly used as HQ staff, comunication and evacuation vehicles. 

 

Edited February 24 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

 

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Wouldn't eliminating all RUS Airborne Radars fall under that? Pretty critical component of the current RUS Air Warfare approach. Hits Strategically (limited national asset, but very difficult to replace), operationally (needed for war in Ukraine) and tactically (killing them affects RuAF use of glide bombs). 

A campaign would normally be more than one capability.  So airborne radar, other systems that support and enable that capability, the things all that radar data flows into and any other capability that can do what airborne radars can do.  This would basically be a campaign against Russia operational ISR in the Region.

I mean it is all good but systemic coordinated targeting of a broader system of capabilities is the next logical step.  But is is expensive and hard.  Ukraine is definitely going after Russian airpower these last few weeks. To the point that it is beginning to feel designed as opposed to opportunistic.

[Haiduk]

770 000$ was raised in two days for 35 naval drones "Sea Baby" - fundrising campaign "Sea battle" was announced by top UKR fundrisers Ihor Lachenkov and Serhiy Sternenko with support of Monobank and United24 initiative and was successfully finished in two days. 

"Sea Baby" is not kamikadze only so far, like previous version, but multirole unmanned naval platform, which capable to execute different tasks. So, prepare to new videos with sinking Russian ships.

Exactly "Sea Baby" succussfully attcked Crimea bridge in second time. This drone can carry 850 kg of payload

   

 

[Haiduk]

Lipetsk metallurgical plant was hit by UKR drones "Liutyi" (has two means - "Fierce" and "February"). This is UKROBORONPROM drone design (though based on UKRSpetsSystems PD-2), anounced as far as in October 2022. Allegedly it can fly on 800-1000 km and carry 75 kg of payload, but there is no verified data about it 

Edited February 24 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

A campaign would normally be more than one capability.  So airborne radar, other systems that support and enable that capability, the things all that radar data flows into and any other capability that can do what airborne radars can do.  This would basically be a campaign against Russia operational ISR in the Region.

I mean it is all good but systemic coordinated targeting of a broader system of capabilities is the next logical step.  But is is expensive and hard.  Ukraine is definitely going after Russian airpower these last few weeks. To the point that it is beginning to feel designed as opposed to opportunistic.

Yup, It would be nice to have a proper Western-style campaign with good resourcing.

With limited Ukrainian capabilities it makes sense to hit the most critical and hard to replace components of the RuAF system, whenever possible, in advance of the full campaign, later in the year. 

Especially with the currently long lead in time for A50 crews and the irreplaceablility of the aircraft. 

Edited February 24 by Kinophile

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yup, It would be nice to have a proper Western-style campaign with good resourcing.

With limited Ukrainian capabilities it makes sense to hit the most critical and hard to replace components of the RuAF system, whenever possible, in advance of the full campaign, later in the year. 

Especially with the currently long lead in time for A50 crews and the irreplaceablility of the aircraft. 

Given the uptick in aircraft losses on the Russian side, I am starting to wonder if Ukraine is not better resourced than we think for strategic strikes.  The most in-demand resource for strategic strike is intel.  Once you know exactly where that A-50 is going to be on a Fri night, you only need a few missiles (or even an attack on the ground) by a small force.

Kinda interested to see the cyber story in this war, which has been notably silent.

[kimbosbread]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I read Multicam is officially allowed in Russian army as an option (but not as a statutory uniform), which serviceman can buy for own money. So, some people of spetsnaz, different volunteer units, PMCs, who can buy this camo, use it

Russia manufacturers make (or made) their own multicam uniforms. Slavyanka was one IIRC.

[Kinophile]

Need moar... But still, good. 

 

Edited February 24 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Risk…madness.  We are talking about direct western military action against Russia.  That is an act of war.  The US or UK would need to be ready to get caught and essentially give Russia and their allies permission to escalate. I mean what would we do if Russians actually killed an AWAC trying to send us a message?  Given the risks, the demonstration itself is not worth it.  Sure we bag an A-50 but Putin get his dream scenario for convincing his own people that this whole thing is an existential war for Russia against western powers.  He can take this to China and Iran as a blank check and this whole thing becomes World Proxy War One.

Yeah, no way it was West.

I think this really really shows the disconnect in thinking between Russia and the West.

Putin is already saying this is existential war for Russia, he is already saying his objective is to destroy the West, and his people - whether random Russians or weirdos and traitors and useful idiots everwhere in the world - are already believing it. He is already doing everything in his power to do that too - from propaganda to interfering with elections to financing fascist parties to helping Hamas to working with Iran and China to assassinating people in other countries to attacking food to cause famine in Africa because refugee crisis empower Western Fascist to whatever else I have lost track.

Russia already escalated as high as they dared. If they could do worse, if they could do something more despicable, if they could do something more monstrous, they would have done it years ago.

I remember all these red lines - nuclear war if West gives Ukraine Javelins, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine tanks, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine planes, nuclear West gives Ukraine gets HIMARS, nuclear war if Ukraine attacks Russian warships, nuclear war if Ukraine fires missiles into Russia ... So really I think if West shot down Russian plane they would do nothing like every time before.

At the same time, the Western decision makers think (or behave as if they thought) that Russia is a country and not a mafia, and that they are not actually at (hybrid) war with us, and that they can be reasoned with and that keeping some kind of "civilized behavior" with Russia is something that makes sense. This is of course wrong - Russia only understands strength and considers humanity a weakness to be exploited - being civilized or nice only makes you hurt.

So no way it really was West - if West had balls to engage Russia directly, our current conversation topic on this forum would be "do you think the warlord Ivanov will also take south of Moscow?" and not "it's not good that Ukraine is losing ground and people because West decided to not supply them with enough ammo but what can you do, it could be worse".

...

Anyway, one thing I wanted to say: This actually is an existential war for Russia in a way. It is existential for Putin, sure, but as we came to understood during the war and as we discussed a few times, the common (but by no means only) mindset in common Russians is "things are ****, they used to get better and now they don't, but you know what, at least we are a badass empire". They might be even deluding themselves into thinking that things being bad is a voluntary sacrifice for that badass empire. Lot of people are willing to suffer a lot for being part of something they consider greater than themselves.

Being decisively shown that Russia is not in fact a cool badass empire they be proud of even if they don't themselves have indoor toilets might really break their worlds. Whatever comes out of that would not be Russia as we know it anymore. This is not existential war for Russia because they will end up in mass graves or enslaved if they lose (like it is for Ukrainians), but it is existential for the Russian imperial mindset.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Risk…madness.  We are talking about direct western military action against Russia.  That is an act of war.

 

33 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yeah, no way it was West.

I think this really really shows the disconnect in thinking between Russia and the West.

Putin is already saying this is existential war for Russia, he is already saying his objective is to destroy the West, and his people - whether random Russians or weirdos and traitors and useful idiots everwhere in the world - are already believing it. He is already doing everything in his power to do that too - from propaganda to interfering with elections to financing fascist parties to helping Hamas to working with Iran and China to assassinating people in other countries to attacking food to cause famine in Africa because refugee crisis empower Western Fascist to whatever else I have lost track.

Russia already escalated as high as they dared. If they could do worse, if they could do something more despicable, if they could do something more monstrous, they would have done it years ago.

I remember all these red lines - nuclear war if West gives Ukraine Javelins, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine tanks, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine planes, nuclear West gives Ukraine gets HIMARS, nuclear war if Ukraine attacks Russian warships, nuclear war if Ukraine fires missiles into Russia ... So really I think if West shot down Russian plane they would do nothing like every time before.

At the same time, the Western decision makers think (or behave as if they thought) that Russia is a country and not a mafia, and that they are not actually at (hybrid) war with us, and that they can be reasoned with and that keeping some kind of "civilized behavior" with Russia is something that makes sense. This is of course wrong - Russia only understands strength and considers humanity a weakness to be exploited - being civilized or nice only makes you hurt.

So no way it really was West - if West had balls to engage Russia directly, our current conversation topic on this forum would be "do you think the warlord Ivanov will also take south of Moscow?" and not "it's not good that Ukraine is losing ground and people because West decided to not supply them with enough ammo but what can you do, it could be worse".

...

Anyway, one thing I wanted to say: This actually is an existential war for Russia in a way. It is existential for Putin, sure, but as we came to understood during the war and as we discussed a few times, the common (but by no means only) mindset in common Russians is "things are ****, they used to get better and now they don't, but you know what, at least we are a badass empire". They might be even deluding themselves into thinking that things being bad is a voluntary sacrifice for that badass empire. Lot of people are willing to suffer a lot for being part of something they consider greater than themselves.

Being decisively shown that Russia is not in fact a cool badass empire they be proud of even if they don't themselves have indoor toilets might really break their worlds. Whatever comes out of that would not be Russia as we know it anymore. This is not existential war for Russia because they will end up in mass graves or enslaved if they lose (like it is for Ukrainians), but it is existential for the Russian imperial mindset.

I agree. There's zero likelihood that NATO splashed an AWACS in Russian airspace, cuz WW3.

You and I are much of the same mind, it seems as I composed this before I read your post....

The Russians don't necessarily *know* that their manifest destiny and grand strategy is built on a tissue of lies and self-delusion.

1. The Russians (and their overseas amen corner) have always preached that all the major Western weapons systems in AFU use (Patriot, HIMARS, etc.) are crewed by NATO mercenaries and technicians.

2. Same 'reasoning' at root: hohol pig farmers and Eurof**gy cosmopolitans can't possibly be cleverer or tougher than Great Russians. Like most bullies, whose behaviour is rooted in a need to prove their superiority (to suppress insecure feelings that they actually aren't), they deeply need to believe that.

3. By corollary, they also 'know' that once T shuts off the tap and recalls the mercs, 'so-called Ukraine' will collapse like a rotten log, the NATO-backed civil war will end and restore the Greater Russian Union State from Zhitomir to the Dnistr, with only Polish- and Hungarian-controlled rump provinces remaining as a buffer.

...So in short, all the US wingnut mouthing is putting the 'comfort' in 'aid and comfort to the enemy'.

Edited February 24 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Given the uptick in aircraft losses on the Russian side, I am starting to wonder if Ukraine is not better resourced than we think for strategic strikes.  The most in-demand resource for strategic strike is intel.  Once you know exactly where that A-50 is going to be on a Fri night, you only need a few missiles (or even an attack on the ground) by a small force.

Kinda interested to see the cyber story in this war, which has been notably silent.

Whatever is going on, and however it is going on, I don't think there is any doubt that at least part of it has been in the planning stages for a long time.  Even if opportunity is a component, you know the old saying... luck doesn't just happen, it is made.

I suspect Ukraine has been planning on taking out the A-50s for some time now and something fell into place yesterday that allowed that to happen.  The likely scenarios depend heavily on what Ukraine used to bring it down.  If it was a S-200 launch from Ukrainian territory then it was probably waiting for some sort of hole to appear in Russia's air defenses that coincided with the plane being in a vulnerable position.  If it was a SpecOps MANPAD team there was probably a very, very long planning and execution tail with more flexibility as to when to engage.

Either way, Ukraine is very obviously dismantling Russia's capabilities in the sky.  I suspect the increase in glide bombs caused strategic shifts of resources in that direction.  The anticipated arrival of F-16s might be a factor as well since Ukraine will want to use them offensively.

OK, so with all that we're seeing going on, I think we're seeing Ukraine's strategy for 2024 developing as follows:

1. Hold ground (obvious) and invest in areas like Avdiivka that offer greater opportunities for attrition
2. Strike strategic war related production wherever it might be inside of Russia
3. Eliminate the Black Sea Fleet from playing any meaningful role in this war, including logistics (landing ships are critically important)
4. Dismantle Russia's ability to project pain from the air, be it shooting down irreplaceable aircraft or blinding AD

Ukraine probably won't launch any significant counter attacks this year.  It's looking like it won't need to.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russians continue a pressure in Donetsk oblast. They began to assault Krasnohorivka town north from occupied Maryinka, repeating the Avdiivka way - bombs, artillery, meat columns in MTLB. UKR troops keep positions. Thoug, we need more AD systems, Russian aviation despite rised risks continue to conduct gliding bomb strikes. Here is ODAB-1500 thermobaric bomb hit on the factory in Krasnohorivka

3rd assault brigade announced they withdrew from Lastochkyne village west from Avdiivka - despite they kept most part of village, sitauation on flanks became worth and threatened to cut off supply routs. 

Russian VDV trops slightly expanded control zone over part of Ivanivske village

 

Edited February 24 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Muscovites are also pushing in Robotyne, splitting village in half. It is second or third time they did it in last weeks, every time they were successfully counterattacked.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yeah, no way it was West.

I think this really really shows the disconnect in thinking between Russia and the West.

Putin is already saying this is existential war for Russia, he is already saying his objective is to destroy the West, and his people - whether random Russians or weirdos and traitors and useful idiots everwhere in the world - are already believing it. He is already doing everything in his power to do that too - from propaganda to interfering with elections to financing fascist parties to helping Hamas to working with Iran and China to assassinating people in other countries to attacking food to cause famine in Africa because refugee crisis empower Western Fascist to whatever else I have lost track.

Russia already escalated as high as they dared. If they could do worse, if they could do something more despicable, if they could do something more monstrous, they would have done it years ago.

I remember all these red lines - nuclear war if West gives Ukraine Javelins, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine tanks, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine planes, nuclear West gives Ukraine gets HIMARS, nuclear war if Ukraine attacks Russian warships, nuclear war if Ukraine fires missiles into Russia ... So really I think if West shot down Russian plane they would do nothing like every time before.

At the same time, the Western decision makers think (or behave as if they thought) that Russia is a country and not a mafia, and that they are not actually at (hybrid) war with us, and that they can be reasoned with and that keeping some kind of "civilized behavior" with Russia is something that makes sense. This is of course wrong - Russia only understands strength and considers humanity a weakness to be exploited - being civilized or nice only makes you hurt.

So no way it really was West - if West had balls to engage Russia directly, our current conversation topic on this forum would be "do you think the warlord Ivanov will also take south of Moscow?" and not "it's not good that Ukraine is losing ground and people because West decided to not supply them with enough ammo but what can you do, it could be worse".

...

Anyway, one thing I wanted to say: This actually is an existential war for Russia in a way. It is existential for Putin, sure, but as we came to understood during the war and as we discussed a few times, the common (but by no means only) mindset in common Russians is "things are ****, they used to get better and now they don't, but you know what, at least we are a badass empire". They might be even deluding themselves into thinking that things being bad is a voluntary sacrifice for that badass empire. Lot of people are willing to suffer a lot for being part of something they consider greater than themselves.

Being decisively shown that Russia is not in fact a cool badass empire they be proud of even if they don't themselves have indoor toilets might really break their worlds. Whatever comes out of that would not be Russia as we know it anymore. This is not existential war for Russia because they will end up in mass graves or enslaved if they lose (like it is for Ukrainians), but it is existential for the Russian imperial mindset.

There is one glaring flaw in this entire line of thinking - Russia has not fully mobilized.  If Russia were truly convinced that this was existential then why are there not 2-3 million troops in Ukraine right now?  

This is the awkward question both the "West is weak and holding itself back because it is jumping at ghosts" and  "Russia does not care what you think, they are all in already" camps have never really answered.  What is restraining Russia right now?  Are they deterred by threat of western escalation?  Are they deterred by maybe less than iron public support? 

In the end it does not matter because this line of thinking is sucking and blowing at the same time:  The West is weak, Russia is strong - but for "reasons" Russia is not going all in on this war.  Either Putin has not convinced his population that this is an existential war for them.  Or he is deterred from full mobilization by western power.  No matter which, blowing an A50 out of the sky with a western system gets us exactly one A50, and Putin a bag of reasons to convince his own people to really get engaged.

[Haiduk]

Russians activated assaults in Robotyne-Verbove zone. Unlike on other directions here Russians attack mostly directly from south, south-east and south-west, because terrain and strуnghthen flanks prevent Russians from flank pressure. So far about a week main clashes are in southern and south-eastren parts of Robotyne and large stronpoint south of village. UKR here has flexible defense. Russians are assaulting both with small infantry groups and platoons on armor, which mostly used for delivering infantry close to the village. Russians already several times were seizing strongpoint and some houses in Robotyne, but when night was coming UKR forces eliminating and capturing enemy attackers, sitting in basements without support. 

Here is next probe of Russians to take control over the village - two BMP-3 of 70th MRR of 42nd MRD disembark infantry near ruines of post office. Reportedly this is yesterday attack

 

 

Edited February 24 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Some details of shot down A-50

 

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, TheVulture said:

The flares have been used for some time before that launch,  and the launch is from the other side of the aircraft line of flight to the video that shows the hit. 

So in one video we have A-50 moving right to left, and an explosion behind the aircraft where presumably an IR seeker hit a flare. Then the plane explodes.

In the other video from the Russian base we have the A-50 moving left to right (on approach to land at the base), and after a fair bit of flaring, a SAM launch which appears to be about the right timing to be the missile that hit the A-50

Possible scenario: UKR SF got to a few miles from the base where they could hit the A-50 coming to land. Man portable IR seeking SAM launched (e.g. Starstreak) but hits flare. Base air defence launches and hits A-50. Either they were trying to intercept the UKR missile, confused about the situation  (fog of war) or just panic. A-50 trying to avoid IR missile behind is hit by radar guided missile from the front. 

EDIT: Not starstreak - I don't think that is IR guided from what I've read. 

Starstreak is hybrid.  The missile itself rides a laser beam (actually a projected pattern) from the ground station so it can't be jammed or easily spoofed.  But the launcher/guider does have thermal IR sighting for effective use at night.  And since it's on the human-operated sighting/guiding system, flares don't really provide protection as long as either the detector or operator can keep the bright flare from blooming on the detector (maybe just by having a reduced field of view) and making the target hard to track.  

So maybe not the most likely scenario, but not impossible.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761453249180168647.html

Ukraine faces a difficult period as Russia regains military momentum and Ukraine grapples with internal challenges.

Key Points:

• Ukrainian Manpower Shortage: Political and military misalignments have delayed vital mobilization efforts. New troops likely won't be sufficiently trained and ready until late summer.
• Springtime Vulnerability: Russia is exploiting Ukraine's weakened state with multi-front offensives. Although Russian gains have been modest, they are prepared for high casualties and have more forces in reserve.
• External Aid Factors: Ukraine is reliant on external support, which has its own limitations and could be affected by future political events, such as the US elections.
• Worst-Case Scenario Focus: Urges a focus on worst-case scenarios for aid planning. He calls for a sense of urgency similar to that seen in early 2022.