LongLeftFlank Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, Kinophile said: Drones coming out of drones. What we're all REALLY waiting for of course, are the 'spinners'. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, Kinophile said: And I believe I must eat my words - I felt L1s were not useful due to the 105mm gun and weak armor. I'm proven wrong. Yes, the gun is effective, and armor can be improved. However, the state remains poor, making them difficult to use. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 hours ago, Sojourner said: Surprisingly good article in WaPo today… What the Pentagon has learned from two years of war in Ukraine With hundreds of thousands dead or wounded and still no end in sight, the conflict has revealed that U.S. battlefield calculations must evolve https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/22/ukraine-war-pentagon-lessons-learned/ Pretty much the same conclusions as reached here. Almost exactly...and especially in sunk costs of Afghan and Iraq experience in higher echelons. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Every western armor maker should be patting themselves on the back for the fact that Ukrainian tankers want more of their stuff for the fact that their survivability increases. We sent 31 M1s to Ukraine, we should send the Marine Corps' M1s to Ukraine. Iraq got 120 M1s! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Seth G. Jones, Senior Vice President and Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, will be joined by Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS; Emily Harding, Director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program and Deputy Director of the International Security Program at CSIS; and the Honorable Michael Vickers, former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and CIA operations officer. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Meanwhile, amid protests, military equipment moves freely to and from Ukraine as it constantly did from the start of the war. Despite various colliding interests, theatrics for camera, housewives histerias and propaganda of dependant media outlets no vital military shipment was blocked. Dogs bark, caravan goes forward. MIG29's are apparently (still) going to Ukraine. Btw. there are constant appeals not to record movements of troops and military vehicles; somebody may have problems cause of this clip that is now widely shared in Rusnet. Several weeks ago we also had another wave of arrests of people who registered shipments and tried to install cameras on roads. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I looked over the less interesting questions from the UKR former tanker interview and to see what could still be noteworthy. So, below is part 2. Quote Tanks Latest Belgian 105mm AP round can pierce T-72b [at unknown range, probably combat]. He says that UKR does not have the newer 105mm round. [Looking at the way he talks, they have but few.] UKR received sufficient heavy transporters to move NATO tanks and heavy SPGs. So, transporting NATO vehicles is not a big problem [commenting on question whether the shift from Soviet-style light tanks to NATO heavy tanks caused any complications]. Regarding [RU propaganda] claim that heavy NATO tanks are unsuitable for UKR soil conditions - wrong. UKR swamps and cold are nothing but conditions you need to take into account when planning operation. They discuss how, on Donbass soil [when wet], T-72 struggles but T-64 does not. It's because the T-64 has a better track and roller design. Regarding Challenger and Leopard, UKR did not experience serious issues [AFAIR, Challenger had minor issues in similar conditions]. Says that many of these problems are caused by driver mistakes, NATO tanks have automated transmission that adjust to soil resistance. So, there are fewer mistakes [than with RU tanks]. [At the time of the interview] there is no information on Abrams' experience because they just came. Regarding the Abrams fuel issue, he explained that, according to UKR MOD discussions with tank maker, AFU has two options: adjust logistics to handle aviation kerosine or use diesel, which will reduce engine life. The decision is up to MOD. Tactic and organization Says that operating in pairs is more effective. Even with Soviet tank formations, the AFU attempts to integrate them. Says that practice demonstrates that when one tank completes a mission and the second tank covers, the second tank frequently prevents the enemy from firing on the first tank. Says this NATO's tactic is more thought out. Says that RU in the Chechen conflict also employed combat pairs and even combat triples. Except in extremely rare instances of 5-6 vs. 5-6 tank battles, company-sized battles [and above] do not occur. Says that they have returned to the WWI tank mission of providing pure infantry support to seize enemy trenches. They occasionally utilize tanks as SPGs, although now that they have more shells and proper SPGs, they do so less frequently. Says, there will be no armored divisions because the AFU only uses brigades. The economy cannot support formations larger than an armored brigade. Claims that the greatest number of tanks RU has ever had on the frontline is 2300-2400, with 70% of them combat capable. Brigades are supposed to have armored battalions, and divisions are supposed to have regiments, but most likely will have armored battalions (not enough tanks), unless brigades are united in Corps, in which case there will be armored regiments or even armored brigades (however, both regiment and brigade have the same number of tanks: 94). Miscellaneous Both Leopard 1 and 2 have equipment to determine vertical angle to enable indirect firing (better than on RU tanks). [Commenting on the question of employing Leopard 1 for indirect fire] Commenting on which tank should Ukraine pick in the future - Ukraine should persuade the US to commit to local Abrams production at the A2SEP/4 level. However, that is unlikely to happen, thus the only choice is Leopard. Explains that the future UKR IFV will carry 6 infantrymen due to the increased size of the infantry kit. Commenting that the RU 30mm cannon (2A42 from BMP) is good for clearing tree lines, he prefers to use one 40mm airburst round rather than fifty 30mm. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Probably first(?) Abrams lost by AFU recorded. Not good, this is M1150 which is very rare. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: Probably first(?) Abrams lost by AFU recorded. Not good, this is M1150 which is very rare. Oh dear that one hurts. Only 239 of them ever produced. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1150_Assault_Breacher_Vehicle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Oh dear that one hurts. Only 239 of them ever produced. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1150_Assault_Breacher_Vehicle How many AFU has? From what I read in last months on UA military channels, they have serious shortage in this type of equipment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Does anyone have good sources handy on a) the supposed Russian estimate of 2 days for the initial invasion (not CIA) b) why Ritter and MacGregor may not be the best "experts" on the war? Had a rather intense discussion today (did I mention what a fun place or company forum can be?) and ongoing with some conspiracy theorists. Who doubt a) and think b) are the best sources on the basis that everyone is criticizing them (which for some people is a certain sign that someone is right...). I know the information is hidden somewhere in these 3261 pages but if someone has something close at hand that would help. Thanks! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Turkey is a good option in many ways, but but if I was UKR Gov I'd be very leery of its links and communications with Russia. Turkey has its own geopolitical priorities and maintaining comms and links with Russia is normal and sensible, but still, a little too close... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Grigb said: 2.The economy cannot support formations larger than an armored brigade. I'm curious about this line - the economy can't support... National economy? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 48 minutes ago, Butschi said: Does anyone have good sources handy on a) the supposed Russian estimate of 2 days for the initial invasion (not CIA) b) why Ritter and MacGregor may not be the best "experts" on the war? Had a rather intense discussion today (did I mention what a fun place or company forum can be?) and ongoing with some conspiracy theorists. Who doubt a) and think b) are the best sources on the basis that everyone is criticizing them (which for some people is a certain sign that someone is right...). I know the information is hidden somewhere in these 3261 pages but if someone has something close at hand that would help. Thanks! Well, Ritter is a convicted pedophile so why are they giving him any daylight? Just answer anything quoting him with details from his sentencing etc. If being negative to a pedophile is a bad thing then those people have lost their moral values up their bum. McGregor, oh McGregor. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Beleg85 said: How many AFU has? From what I read in last months on UA military channels, they have serious shortage in this type of equipment. Everyone has a serious shortage of that type of equipment, although Ukraine has that plus a serious need. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 24 minutes ago, Kinophile said: I'm curious about this line - the economy can't support... National economy? He was talking about the UKR economy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Butschi said: Does anyone have good sources handy on a) the supposed Russian estimate of 2 days for the initial invasion (not CIA) b) why Ritter and MacGregor may not be the best "experts" on the war? Had a rather intense discussion today (did I mention what a fun place or company forum can be?) and ongoing with some conspiracy theorists. Who doubt a) and think b) are the best sources on the basis that everyone is criticizing them (which for some people is a certain sign that someone is right...). I know the information is hidden somewhere in these 3261 pages but if someone has something close at hand that would help. Thanks! Perhaps the best thing to do is have them rewatch the drivel these two numbnuts were spewing in the first weeks of the war and then compare it to what has happened in the 2 years since. They have been hilariously wrong. Another point to make is that Fox News, the US' mainstream right-of-center messaging center, had Macgregor on at the start of the war and then quickly realized that he was too pro-Putin even by their standards. I don't think he's been on since. Here's an article on Ritter's pro-Russian stance: https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/24/why-do-disgraced-americans-like-scott-ritter-spout-pro-putin-propaganda-in-russia And let's not forget the painful episode of Ritter going to hanging out with Kadyrov: https://www.newsweek.com/scott-ritter-chechnya-visit-kadyrov-army-speech-1858652 Here's article from 2022 listing a bunch of nutty things Ritter said that obviously didn't come to pass and his close association with others who don't think facts matter: https://mythdetector.ge/en/3-ukraine-related-disinformation-disseminated-by-russian-propaganda-platforms/ Well, not that you're going to convince anybody of anything. People who can't smell the stink of these guys from a mile away aren't in touch with reality to start with. People like Ritter and Macgregor are listened to because they validate whatever warped view they already have. If you discredit the source, they just find another source. And there's plenty out there. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Oh, and I just saw this while looking at Ritter stuff. He went to occupied Kherson: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26936 One of the best pieces of evidence that someone is in the pocket of Russia's brutal dictatorship is being allowed special access. Like interviewing Putin or hanging out with Kadyrov. Critics of Russia are not given these privileges. People who are fair minded don't get such access. Only pro-Russian propagandists do. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 @Battlefront.com@Kinophile Thanks for the additional ammo. 7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Well, not that you're going to convince anybody of anything. People who can't smell the stink of these guys from a mile away aren't in touch with reality to start with. People like Ritter and Macgregor are listened to because they validate whatever warped view they already have. If you discredit the source, they just find another source. And there's plenty out there. Absolutely true. It's not for their benefit. I like to (repeatedly, sign of getting old?) tell people what John Ellis (see e.g. here: https://physicsworld.com/a/a-life-after-cern/ looks like Gandalf so has to be right...) said back when I was at CERN as PhD student. We were about to switch on the LHC and all the conspiracy theorists went ballistic because people at CERN were all mad and evil scientists that wanted to destroy the earth with a black hole. John Ellis said, we have to go out there and keep telling the facts and proving those people wrong. Not to convince the hardcore conspiracy theorists who 4 or 5 or 6 sigma away from normal people. We will never convince them. But to convince the people who are 1,2,3 sigma away, who listen to the 6 sigma people but still can reasoned with. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, Beleg85 said: How many AFU has? From what I read in last months on UA military channels, they have serious shortage in this type of equipment. I would be surprised if they had a half dozen. I am assuming that system was already KO’d and just hit again. It is weird as these systems are part of a larger mech breaching package. It is odd that this one seems parked out in the open on its own. If it was part of a failed breaching op, there should be a lot of other lost vehicles too. Could have been left behind on recovery but that is a pretty rare platform to leave last in a recovery effort, it would normally be first. Whole thing looms weird. But of course not a lot of mech breaching going on right now so not a critical piece of equipment for the defensive phase. They may miss it if the UA goes back on the offensive later this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, Butschi said: Does anyone have good sources handy on a) the supposed Russian estimate of 2 days for the initial invasion (not CIA) b) why Ritter and MacGregor may not be the best "experts" on the war? Had a rather intense discussion today (did I mention what a fun place or company forum can be?) and ongoing with some conspiracy theorists. Who doubt a) and think b) are the best sources on the basis that everyone is criticizing them (which for some people is a certain sign that someone is right...). I know the information is hidden somewhere in these 3261 pages but if someone has something close at hand that would help. Thanks! MacGregor is a black mark on our profession. He knows better but has let his political position hijack sound military analysis. You need only watch his stuff from year 1 (and year 2). The sorry was always the same: the UA was collapsing and major failures are going to happen imminently. He said this back at Kyiv, again at Severodonetsk and that whole thing. Bakhmut, and no doubt has come out of the woodwork for Adiivka. MacGregor is blatantly skewing analysis towards pro-Russian narratives but it is repeated “wrong-ness” that should really be hung around his neck. The man has repeatedly made the wrong call on just about every major phase of this war (although I am sure he predicted the UA offensive would fail…so broken clock). But by his assessment Ukraine should have fallen and been defeated completely back in ‘22. My advice is ignore him unless you want to see what the other side is pushing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 9 minutes ago, The_Capt said: I would be surprised if they had a half dozen. I am assuming that system was already KO’d and just hit again. It is weird as these systems are part of a larger mech breaching package. It is odd that this one seems parked out in the open on its own. If it was part of a failed breaching op, there should be a lot of other lost vehicles too. Could have been left behind on recovery but that is a pretty rare platform to leave last in a recovery effort, it would normally be first. Whole thing looms weird. But of course not a lot of mech breaching going on right now so not a critical piece of equipment for the defensive phase. They may miss it if the UA goes back on the offensive later this year. one of two things happened. Either it got hit so hard the first time it was a write off, or it was in such a bad spot somebody was afraid they would lose the recovery vehicle. Things that can tow an Abrams are not in oversupply either. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) 1 hour ago, Kinophile said: Well, Ritter is a convicted pedophile so why are they giving him any daylight? Just answer anything quoting him with details from his sentencing etc. If being negative to a pedophile is a bad thing then those people have lost their moral values up their bum. McGregor, oh McGregor. I think the best way to see someone like MacGregor is that essentially he believes that if America isn't going to look politically/socially/racially like the America he wants then he is quite happy being anti-American. That is the core message one gets from Tucker Carlson now too (National Review elucidates that particular case well: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/we-need-to-talk-about-tucker/ ). Looked at that way, his stances make sense. If America is the vanguard of a world woke dictatorship then Ukraine is the place such a dystopia may be blunted. If the ideological battle is existential, then a little bit of pettifoggery regarding military realities is just the lies that stand guard around the truth. Edited February 23 by billbindc 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 49 minutes ago, Butschi said: John Ellis said, we have to go out there and keep telling the facts and proving those people wrong. Not to convince the hardcore conspiracy theorists who 4 or 5 or 6 sigma away from normal people. We will never convince them. But to convince the people who are 1,2,3 sigma away, who listen to the 6 sigma people but still can reasoned with. One of my favorite tv shows ever “The Boondocks” had a nice spin on this in the 1st episode with the trial of R-Kelley (for peeing on a consenting underage girl). The protagonist ends with the famous line: “I did battle with ignorance today, and ignorance won. I admit that I'm often... vexed at the behavior of my own people. Yeah, "vexed" is a good word.“ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 minute ago, The_Capt said: I would be surprised if they had a half dozen. I am assuming that system was already KO’d and just hit again. It is weird as these systems are part of a larger mech breaching package. It is odd that this one seems parked out in the open on its own. If it was part of a failed breaching op, there should be a lot of other lost vehicles too. Could have been left behind on recovery but that is a pretty rare platform to leave last in a recovery effort, it would normally be first. Whole thing looms weird. But of course not a lot of mech breaching going on right now so not a critical piece of equipment for the defensive phase. They may miss it if the UA goes back on the offensive later this year. I dunno, but I if theres one thing I personally took away from last year's summer offensive, it's that single lane mech assaults led by heavy slow engie vechs into defended dense minefields are pointless. Multiple lanes on a broad frontage with many expendable and immediately replaceable Unmanned mine-cearers offer better odds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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