mosuri Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: Going to lay this one at the feet of all those who declared loudly and uncompromisingly that winning this war must mean 100% of pre-2014 Ukraine is re-taken and Russia is effectively crushed - this is where that amateur dangerous narrative gets us. If we frame victory as a something that large, rife with hazards, then anything less is defeat. This blatantly violates the principle that all war is negotiation. It creates a strategic binary box of our own making. This of course can create either positive or negative effect. "War is lost, so why keep dumping good money after bad?" Or, "wow, we had better get our act together!" I guess we will have to see which one happens. As usual with these questionnaires, the further you are removed from the Evil Empire, the less pressing the matter seems. I don't think the Mediterraneans have been fully on board before, either. I do get your point. But over here next to the leningrad oblast I think we understand giving up is the worst option. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kinophile said: Sounds weirdly low. Only 20% think Russia may win though. Most people seems to think the war ends by negotiations, or perhaps goes over to a lowintensity conflict with no end in sight like 2014-2022 Edited February 21 by Armorgunner 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) 16 minutes ago, The_Capt said: This makes sense if they have inside knowledge that the RA is rotten and ripe for collapse. And they had better be damned sure. "One more push" did not work out in WW1 when Defensive Primacy is dominating. But there are plenty of examples where that last push did create enough pressure for an enemy collapse. The central problem to my eyes is upscaling. How does one do it without getting picked up and lit up before one can put it into motion? How does one upscale the seemingly very high bar for setting pre-conditions? You have to solve for drones and you have to solve for ISR. That means blowing things up in space and creating a full spectrum solution for drones in EM, interception, shoot down. And you still have to contend with ATGMS, mines, etc. Just a brutal calculus. Edited February 21 by billbindc 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I think we just found out the reason why according to leaks US is thinking about supplying longer range ATACMS. Iran did it first... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: I think what we have here is the usual non-experts and lowly foot soldier perspective on withdrawals. The last phase of a withdrawal under intense enemy pressure is almost always chaotic, disorganized, and prone to losing clusters of men/material AT BEST. Worse is mass captures and slaughter. It sounds like another regurgitation of the well publicised story of the withdrawal from the Zenit position, where a company of 110th Bde retreated in some chaos, incurred casualties and had to leave 6 wounded, whom Russian subsequently shot after surrendering 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Grigb said: Let us have a bet. If the war ends without Russia withdrawing from Ukrainian land, I will send you a bottle of gin (not cheap, but nice). If it ends with full RU withdrawal, you will send me a bottle of gin. Why not fine Transnistrian brandy? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-canada-artillery-shells-1.7120329 Well I hope that goes through. It would help Ukraine right now when it needs any shell it can get 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Scholz stands by his "no" to "Taurus" One day before the vote on two motions on Ukraine in the Bundestag, the coalition of the two parties in the coalition government continues to debate the delivery of "Taurus" cruise missiles. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to vote in favour of the coalition motion. This includes a "delivery of additionally required long-range weapon systems" - although the Chancellor does not understand this to mean a "Taurus" delivery. "As far as the delivery of a special weapon system is concerned, he is sticking to his position," said government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit, without uttering the term "Taurus". Scholz has so far rejected the delivery of the long-range cruise missiles. Article in German https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/scholz-taurus-ukraine-100.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 hours ago, billbindc said: It feels to me that between Wagner's dissolution, Girkin's imprisonment and Murz's suicide, the death knell for 'altruistic' Russian revanchism as been well and full rung. More proof of the demobilized and demobilizing political nature of Putin's sclerotic regime and a very good thing for long term Ukrainian prospects. Yeah the vast majority of ideologically motivated Russians/separatists have been expended in one way or another. Now the SMO is just a more effective grift, with a simpler propaganda hook. It is just a question of keeping Ukraine standing until this abomination of a regime eats its seed corn and just dissolves from the bottom up. Even if that means a hundred billion a year in support for another five years, it is the best money we could ever spend to make this planet a better place. 3 hours ago, Butschi said: FOV is never variable in our setups. The camera position is fixed, no (dynamic) zooming or swiveling whatsoever. So basically a pixel always covers the same solid angle. Makes sensor fusion (e.g. with lidar) easier. For us, detecting and classifying objects beyond 100m is a real challenge. But as you yourself have stated, self driving cars need an error rate that is approximately zero. For military drone AI an error rate of ten percent is probably more than acceptable in most circumstances. Your doctrine and planning have just have to reflect this. I mean we have hard evidence that a lot of Russian drones in full FPV mode with live overwatch from an ISR drone still hit decoys all the time. 51 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Silly thing to suggest that Ukraine's PR revealed the location of their offensive when this forum was settling on that being the quickest most decisive action Ukraine could take. In short, it was exceedingly obvious that Russia needed to shore up it's defenses in the Kherson direction. Ukraine's PR has been focused on getting Western aid and equipment. If there's any blame to go, certainly I remain exceedingly pissed that we have thousands of Bradleys and have only given 200 to Ukraine. Bradley's and much else.... 36 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I think we just found out the reason why according to leaks US is thinking about supplying longer range ATACMS. Iran did it first... Does anybody else find Russia being dependent on Iran to be the kind of thing rattles your brain every time you think about it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Quote https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/world/europe/russia-blogger-morozov-ukraine-avdiivka.html A Russian Military Blogger Dies After Criticizing Army Losses The ultranationalist blogger, Andrei Morozov, had described a campaign of intimidation against him and threatened to end his own life. NYT bothered to report on Murz's demise. They must be feeling some pressure to balance the bad headline from yesterday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 36 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: Why not fine Transnistrian brandy? I am convinced that I will taste the drink, and I prefer gin. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twisk Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I'd argue that a lot of the "wunderwaffe" to some extent were had they been provided/training began Immediately and that has colored a lot of public opinion about them. The talk about X always has a lead time, and by the time it actually arrives the situation has changed. When western tanks were originally being talked about in public drone warfare more or less didn't exist outside a few clips of consumer drones dropping frag grenades. Essentially public expectation is set in October of 2022 but the actual on the ground impact isn't felt until June 2023. Well its been more than 6 months and its a whole new war. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, dan/california said: NYT bothered to report on Murz's demise. They must be feeling some pressure to balance the bad headline from yesterday. "Military blogger", FFS. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 25 minutes ago, dan/california said: But as you yourself have stated, self driving cars need an error rate that is approximately zero. For military drone AI an error rate of ten percent is probably more than acceptable in most circumstances. Your doctrine and planning have just have to reflect this. I mean we have hard evidence that a lot of Russian drones in full FPV mode with live overwatch from an ISR drone still hit decoys all the time. Yes, I was just providing background information as to why I hadn't considered zooming and thought cm resolution at 1km unlikely. The drone will also not do sensor fusion, so what we do in a car is of no real consequence for this topic, I guess. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 20 minutes ago, Grigb said: I am convinced that I will taste the drink, and I prefer gin. I dunno, a friend of mine was there not too long ago and the bottle he brought back was quite tasty. Also there is the novelty of a having a drink from an unrecognized separatist region that may not exist for long! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Grigb said: I am convinced that I will taste the drink, and I prefer gin. Edited February 21 by JonS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) 1 hour ago, billbindc said: You have to solve for drones and you have to solve for ISR. That means blowing things up in space and creating a full spectrum solution for drones in EM, interception, shoot down. And you still have to contend with ATGMS, mines, etc. Just a brutal calculus. I am listening in on a military symposium right now and trust me, no one really knows how to do any of that. In fact everyone appears to be contradicting themselves and each other - Ukraine must upscale but concentration of forces is dangerous (dispersion), we need manoeuvre but must be ready for an attritional war, technology is having major impacts but don't over invest in any technology. Basically as far as I can tell in a room full of academics, GOs and Hoffman, no one really knows what is going on either. Edited February 21 by The_Capt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, The_Capt said: I am listening in on a military symposium right now and trust me, no one really knows how to do any of that. In fact everyone appears to be contradicting themselves and each other - Ukraine must upscale but concentration of forces is dangerous (dispersion), we need manoeuvre but must be ready for an attritional war, technology is having major impacts but don't over invest in any technology. Basically as far as I can tell in a room full of academics, GOs and Hoffman, no one really knows what is going on either. Is there a public link to that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, The_Capt said: I am listening in on a military symposium right now and trust me, no one really knows how to do any of that. In fact everyone appears to be contradicting themselves and each other - Ukraine must upscale but concentration of forces is dangerous (dispersion), we need manoeuvre but must be ready for an attritional war, technology is having major impacts but don't over invest in any technology. Basically as far as I can tell in a room full of academics, GOs and Hoffman, no one really knows what is going on either. There's going to be another "Mud, Blood and Poppycock" written for this era... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, dan/california said: Is there a public link to that? Nope, sorry. UNCLASS so I can discuss but closed registration. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Butschi said: Yes, I was just providing background information as to why I hadn't considered zooming and thought cm resolution at 1km unlikely. The drone will also not do sensor fusion, so what we do in a car is of no real consequence for this topic, I guess. It is of great consequence, and your expertise is appreciated. It is just that when you spend fifty hours a week beating your head against one set of requirements, it can be hard to shift gears. It is a long way from zero defect/zero mistake self driving cars to Avdiivka front good enough. Edited February 21 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, The_Capt said: I am listening in on a military symposium right now and trust me, no one really knows how to do any of that. Yeah solving for ISR seems really hard if cheap sensors are a thing. Same idea as “el-cheapo thermal” on both drones and soldiers, how do you avoid this. I love the idea of a sensor mine… airdrop via drones/spies a ****load of little accelerometers with radios and solar panel and a week of battery life… maybe the size of quarter or something. Near every major intersection. And they phone home occaisonally if there’s interesting vibrations. How the hell do you avoid these, let alone find them all? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: Yeah solving for ISR seems really hard if cheap sensors are a thing. Same idea as “el-cheapo thermal” on both drones and soldiers, how do you avoid this. I love the idea of a sensor mine… airdrop via drones/spies a ****load of little accelerometers with radios and solar panel and a week of battery life… maybe the size of quarter or something. Near every major intersection. And they phone home occaisonally if there’s interesting vibrations. How the hell do you avoid these, let alone find them all? You could even spread them down th road to get an approximate speed for a big reading, and arrange to grace the appropriate spot with DPICM and FASCAM, if there was not a more artful solution handy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: Yeah solving for ISR seems really hard if cheap sensors are a thing. Same idea as “el-cheapo thermal” on both drones and soldiers, how do you avoid this. I love the idea of a sensor mine… airdrop via drones/spies a ****load of little accelerometers with radios and solar panel and a week of battery life… maybe the size of quarter or something. Near every major intersection. And they phone home occaisonally if there’s interesting vibrations. How the hell do you avoid these, let alone find them all? One thing our CHOD said that did stick - "We know combined arms will continue to be central to the western way of warfare. What those 'arms' are and how they are integrated appears to be the question." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, dan/california said: But as you yourself have stated, self driving cars need an error rate that is approximately zero. For military drone AI an error rate of ten percent is probably more than acceptable in most circumstances. Your doctrine and planning have just have to reflect this. I mean we have hard evidence that a lot of Russian drones in full FPV mode with live overwatch from an ISR drone still hit decoys all the time. Well think about how much fun we are making about bad Russian targeting with their missile campaigns. We will see if autonomous systems will do any better 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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