How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

22 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

WarTranslated seems to be a Ukrainian propaganda blog.

Anyone got a link to the original post by that Russian propagandist? Because if even their propagandists have such a negative view on the war, then Russia has surely lost by now.

Which is of course what a Ukrainian propagandist would want us to believe.

Huh? How is that different than what we have seen from e.g. Girkin's blog?

Certain Russian nationalists have been criticizing the way the war is fought since March 22 and with colorful, explicit language.

[dan/california]

 

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

WarTranslated seems to be a Ukrainian propaganda blog.

Anyone got a link to the original post by that Russian propagandist? Because if even their propagandists have such a negative view on the war, then Russia has surely lost by now.

Which is of course what a Ukrainian propagandist would want us to believe.

In an ever more absolute autocracy that is not necessarily the case. I am pretty certain the Russians are losing, and doing themselves damage they will never, ever recover from. That being said a more or less absolute autocracy can go on for an absurdly long time, even as it sets itself on fire. People were still taking Hitler's orders in March of 1945, Japan didn't quit until the alternative was national annihilation. We just have to pull our heads together and send enough help to keep Ukraine in this war for as long as it takes. 

You may take issue with the way Dmitri picks articles to translate, but I have never seen someone credibly claim one of his translations was wrong in any meaningful way.

The hopes for ending the Ukraine war quickly hinged on two things. The first was Putin's regime being competent enough to realize it had miscalculated, declaring victory, and going home, in April or May of 2022. The ugly little war between Chine and Vietnam in ~1979 is the classic example. The second chance was when the Kharkiv front collapsed. If the Ukrainians had had enough support then maybe the could have have run the Russian army of the field. DPICM being the most obvious thing we didn't do and should have. I have a list....

It didn't happen, so now there is nothing for it but the long grind. The goal now is to get Ukrainian casualties down, and Russia's up to the point that the Russians quit first. It really is that simple.

Edited January 27 by dan/california

[cesmonkey]

 

[Twisk]

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/27/1226170192/russia-ukraine-war-nepal-soldiers-killed

 

Quote

The 31-year-old woman from Nepal received a letter from the Nepalese Embassy in Moscow with news that her husband, Pritam Karki, had died on Nov. 15 while serving in the Russian military in Ukraine.

...

The Nepalese Embassy sent the family a death certificate, viewed by NPR, that said he had suffered "explosive trauma with damage to chest organs and left lower limb" and "injuries by shrapnel in an explosion as a result of military operations" and died in a hospital in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region.

Pritam apparently worked for U.S. forces in Afghanistan before the pullout.

Quote

Nevertheless, Nepal's Foreign Ministry estimates 400 of its citizens have gone to serve in the Russian army. Nepali fighters in Russia interviewed by NPR believe the total is more than 1,000.

 

 

[dan/california]

New Perun!

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, Twisk said:

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/27/1226170192/russia-ukraine-war-nepal-soldiers-killed

 

Pritam apparently worked for U.S. forces in Afghanistan before the pullout.

 

Mercenaries go to the highest bidder. In terms of what they are advertising that is the Russians. They are at least pretending to offer crazy amounts of money by third world standards. How often they actually pay up is another question, but then that has been a problem in that business for 5000 years.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The second chance was when the Kharkiv front collapsed. If the Ukrainians had had enough support then maybe the could have have run the Russian army of the field. DPICM being the most obvious thing we didn't do and should have. I

Do you really think a lack of DPICM is why the Kharkiv - or any - offensive stalled out?

That's taking kit-fethism to the next level.

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, JonS said:

Do you really think a lack of DPICM is why the Kharkiv - or any - offensive stalled out?

That's taking kit-fethism to the next level.

Not at all, but it the clearest possible example of the U.S. not being able to decide whether we are in this to win it, or not. Their is absolutely no reason except our own idiocy that DPICM shells were not supplied with the first 155mm guns. What I am trying to say is that we have had a strategy of extremely gradual ramping up in capability for the Ukrainians, and it gave the Russians to much time to get their bleep together. And now we are in a 1916-7 situation, where the lines have frozen, and the cost to move them is just too high.

 

Edit: The fact we STILL have not given the Ukrainians the ability to drop the Kerch bridge is the second extremely obvious example.

Edited January 27 by dan/california

[JonS]

8 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

Don’t know if this was posted before. Apparently, Russia imported U.S. $1.7 Billion of computer chips in 2023. Obviously a big help for there war effort and sign that sanctions are still too porous.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/russia-buys-chips-from-intel-amd-and-others-to-fuel-war-efforts-the-country-bought-dollar17-billion-in-2023

p.s. I was going to Tomshardware to get more info on the new Nvidia 40XX Super GPUs, but seems you can’t get away from war news.

 

From a year ago;

On 2/4/2023 at 3:23 PM, JonS said:

There is a chart floating around that seems to show Russian imports of chips has ~doubled c.f. a year ago. I assume the numbers on the chart are correct - I have no reason to doubt them, and no way to verify them.

Ah, here it is:

The thing is, the chart says nothing about the VOLUME of chips being imported, it only refers to the VALUE of those chips. If Russia is paying four times as much - because: sanctions - then they're only receiving half as many chips this January as last.

The campaigning season has annual cycles, and so do sanctions stories, apparently

 

Edit: at face value - combining the two stories - it seems like the value of chips imported to Russia decreased quite a bit from 2022 to 2023, despite inflation.

Joch's story: $1.7b in 2023

Ribakova's tweet: $1.8b Jan-Sep 2021 (ie, 9 months, not 12) and $2.45b Jan-Sep 2022.

Normalising that, for full years, we get ...

• 2021: $2.4b
• 2022: $3.27b
• 2023: $1.7b

... which is an encouraging trend.

(although there's a lot of hairy-*** assumptions in there that the data probably doesn't support, incl like-for-like measurements, and the 2023 data being for the full 12 months rather than some shorter period)

 

Edited January 27 by JonS

[JonS]

30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Not at all

Well, then, maybe consider that that IS what you wrote.

 

30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

it the clearest possible example of the U.S. not being able to decide whether we are in this to win it, or not.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-much-aid-the-u-s-has-sent-to-ukraine-in-6-charts

A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money. Even if they can't decide whether to piss or get off the pot.

Edited January 27 by JonS

[JonS]

/dupe

Edited January 27 by JonS

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

I want a new modern game...

 

[Blazing 88's]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Mercenaries go to the highest bidder. In terms of what they are advertising that is the Russians. They are at least pretending to offer crazy amounts of money by third world standards. How often they actually pay up is another question, but then that has been a problem in that business for 5000 years.

Sounds like they could use a MRBC - Mercenary Review and Bonding Commission!
An independent supranational organization that serves as the Sphere-wide official registrar for all legal mercenary units. Google it.  

Edited January 27 by Blazing 88's

[Offshoot]

Interesting video from the POV of a Russian tank in an attack on Ukrainian positions interspersed with Ukrainian drone footage showing the same action. I assume the Ukrainians captured the tank with the camera intact.

Despite RPGs flying and vehicles already knocked out, the tank wanders up to the Ukrainian trenches through the smoke and I don't think fires a shot.

Warning: aftermath with bodies shown at the end.

Edited January 28 by Offshoot

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Blazing 88's said:

Sounds like they could use a MRBC - Mercenary Review and Bonding Commission!
An independent supranational organization that serves as the Sphere-wide official registrar for all legal mercenary units. Google it.  

Why should I Google them? I already know my company is highly rated by the MRBC in BattleTech (2018).

Edited January 28 by Harmon Rabb

[danfrodo]

Some interesting tidbits here today.  RU mayor wants more RU babies to be born.  Interesting how many RU officials keep bringing up the birth rate -- are they planning on being at war forever?  If it's for economic reasons maybe they shouldn't have chased ~1M of their best & brightest out of the country.  And maybe investing in the people instead of corruption & war would make people feel hopeful and want to have families.  Oh, and maybe the men should stop being drunks.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/27/2219879/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russian-men-urged-to-sneak-up-on-their-women-to-boost-birth-rate?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

 

[dan/california]

It turns out you can do a decent smart mine with the standard FPV drone. Just fly them in at dusk, and make the roads impassable until dawn. If they aren't already doing it it will be trivial to make this autonomous. See bright light, rise one meter, and point that way. They so need a railway version.

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

Not at all, but it the clearest possible example of the U.S. not being able to decide whether we are in this to win it, or not. Their is absolutely no reason except our own idiocy that DPICM shells were not supplied with the first 155mm guns. What I am trying to say is that we have had a strategy of extremely gradual ramping up in capability for the Ukrainians, and it gave the Russians to much time to get their bleep together. And now we are in a 1916-7 situation, where the lines have frozen, and the cost to move them is just too high.

 

Edit: The fact we STILL have not given the Ukrainians the ability to drop the Kerch bridge is the second extremely obvious example.

I think the “ramping up strategy” is probably going as fast as it possibly can.  One cannot simply dump weapons and equipment on a nation and voila they have a modern military ready for complex offensive operations on a battlefield we can barely recognize anymore.  DPICM would not have made a real difference as there was still a limit to how many guns the UA could effectively field.  After Kharkiv the limiting factor was likely UA logistics and an ability to support deep exploitation.  Followed by force ready units to actually be the force to do it.

It is too easy to point fingers and cry “bad strategy” without being to see all the elements in tension.  There is western capacity, which is limited based on about 30 years of defence spending and policy - there are limits to how much we can give and then still support.  Then there is Ukrainians ability to effectively absorb.  Building these complex systems takes a lot of moving parts and skills that the UA had in limited numbers.  How long does it take to train logisticians and maintenance?  Technical trades?  Engineers?  Gunners that know how to employ DPICM effectively - it is not simply “point towards enemy”.  Sure, the US could have sent a thousand M1s; they would be parked in Poland right now with no spare parts or a Ukrainian ability to maintain and fuel them.

War is not CM.  In game players see the last 60 mins of a massive system that takes years to build, months to field and weeks/days to get into the action.  Right now we are seeing ammunition shortfalls but these are political or the simple fact that manufacturing has to catch up with demand.

Kerch bridge - so now we can talk about the next level, options.  First off the Ukrainians do have the capability to hit that bridge.  The Storm Shadow system has the reach (the thing can hit that bridge from freakin Kharkiv) and punch (it has twice the warhead weight compared to ATACMs).  But Ukraine does not seem interested in hitting that bridge, again.  Why?  Well my guess is that the bridge really is not critical right now.  Other than an annoyance, Ukraine does not have an ability to exploit the pressure dropping that bridge would provide - it offers no options to justify the risk/cost.  It may feel good but there is a lot of other stuff Ukraine can use that weapon system to hit.  Ukraine does seem to be comfortably ramping up the strikes into Russia and Crimea - a submarine hurts a lot more than a bridge right now.  They are clearly using a different payoff calculation.

Right now we are in the position that the best we can do is likely sustain Ukrainian defence and denial.  Offence will be sporadic deep strikes and have to wait until something gives.  The RA may buckle.  Massed unmanned is looking promising.  Maybe a combination of systems.  As to the rest…well we have to wait and see.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Interesting video from the POV of a Russian tank in an attack on Ukrainian positions interspersed with Ukrainian drone footage showing the same action. I assume the Ukrainians captured the tank with the camera intact.

Despite RPGs flying and vehicles already knocked out, the tank wanders up to the Ukrainian trenches through the smoke and I don't think fires a shot.

Warning: aftermath with bodies shown at the end.

That was an interesting one to see both perspectives.  We've only had a couple of these so far in this war.  Amazing that we even had 1 to look at!

Yup, it's pretty clear that Ukrainians recovered the camera and made this video from it.  When the driver bails out the camera is still on and wasn't recovered by the Russians.  They were too busy bailing out.

Steve

[Holien]

11 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Interesting video from the POV of a Russian tank in an attack on Ukrainian positions interspersed with Ukrainian drone footage showing the same action. I assume the Ukrainians captured the tank with the camera intact.

Hmmm dangerous for any side doing this as the camera leading up to the event can give away important information about the area behind the lines.

The age of digital recording and desire to be a digital media superstar is making it harder to keep OpSec.

 

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Holien said:

Hmmm dangerous for any side doing this as the camera leading up to the event can give away important information about the area behind the lines.

The age of digital recording and desire to be a digital media superstar is making it harder to keep OpSec.

 

Given the levels of ISR at play, I am fairly sure it is nearly impossible to hide any rear area important information regardless.  This is an illuminated battlefield, from the ground to space.  I am not even sure what OpSec even looks like anymore.  Given the delays in collecting video such as this compared to the real time collection going on, perversely this video may be more secure than other data.

[Holien]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Given the delays in collecting video such as this compared to the real time collection going on, perversely this video may be more secure than other data.

Fair point...

Maybe not for the Russians if there ISR is still pants....

[Carolus]

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Given the levels of ISR at play, I am fairly sure it is nearly impossible to hide any rear area important information regardless.  This is an illuminated battlefield, from the ground to space.  I am not even sure what OpSec even looks like anymore.  Given the delays in collecting video such as this compared to the real time collection going on, perversely this video may be more secure than other data.

Yes, but sometimes the information is novel and timely.  VERY early in the war there was a documented incident of a Ukrainian unit taking down a Russian drone that had been set to record to a SIM card.  They loaded the card and found a complete record of the flight, starting when it was turned on.  This gave an exact location for the enemy drone unit.  The intel was only minutes old when received and, therefore, actionable.  They smashed the building with artillery.  The Russian video and Ukrainian drone footage of hitting the base were uploaded.

Of course, this was back in the days before either side had gotten used to how vulnerable their own positions were to ISR, timely response, and precision capabilities.  Though even today I think a goof like this would likely be bad news for the drone team.

Steve