How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[OBJ]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And this is why I keep harping on the fact that large crewed AFVs are going to be a thing of the past.  Look at how small this vehicle is and note how much damage at range it can dish out.  Why risk even a Humvee equivalent for a job like this?

Steve

Anybody read Mick Ryan, retired Australian two star? 

https://www.amazon.com/Books-Mick-Ryan/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3AMick+Ryan

1st two.

He talks a lot about future tactical (Company level) units fully integrating UAVs, UGVs, humans and AFVs. 

Edited January 13 by OBJ

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, that makes a kinda sense.  So where is the RA artillery and ISR?  A tank and a CV90 to clear a trench of 3-4 Russians is a pretty big force, and a big target.  

This is where our UGV would shine. Give it some 1 shot 40mm grenade tubes and a machine gun and  have it go to town.

That said, I wonder if a better weapon wouldn’t be to just douse the position with gasoline or kerosene from the UGV. Don’t even light it on fire, just let it evaporate and freeze everybody in the position to death extra fast.

[kimbosbread]

Also I’m liking the 120mm mortar as a replacement for tank direct fire more and more. It should be possible to deploy a loitering munition from one, or a super ****ty GLSDB analog, but mini and direct it from the overwatch drone.

[Haiduk]

Since Russian offensive almost exhausted near Avdiivka and Kupiansk (or they prepare new spalsh of activity) and enough bogged on northern flank of Bakhmut, now Russians main efforts concentrated on Maryinka - Novomukhailivka section, trying to advance west to Heorhiivka and Kurakhove and south to Novomykhailivka. The latter village also attacked from east and south-east. According to Kostianntyn Mashovets, Novomykhailivka is not enough significant point itself, but Russian command obvioulsy prepare to launch new attempt of elimination of Vuhledar salient. For this Russian will try to push off UKR forces behind the road Vuhledar - Maryinka. For this objectives they have to activate not only northern part of salient (Novomykhailivka), but also southern - Vuhledar. Again. First units of 57th motor-rifle brigade of 5th CAA, after 1,5 months of rest and replenishment were spotted on southern flank of Vuhledar salient. 

But now main intensive clashes are for Novomykhailivka village. Russians intesively use artillery and avaiation with gliding bombs. Despite fierce UKR resistance and counter-attacks. allowing to restore situation on some poditions, in whole situation here still very hard. Russians have small but sready advance. 

Here is on the video next results of combat work of one of battalions of 79th air-assault brigade on Novomykhailivka direction, but despite these losses Russian still advance

Maryinka - Vuhledar situation on the map

 

[Haiduk]

Russian Zvezda TV showed first four UMPK devices for FAB-1500 bombs, making these dumb bombs gliding and quite accurate

 

[Haiduk]

In Sevastopol burried next five victims of Storm Shadow strike on command center of 3rd radar regiment on 6th of January. No data about number of victims, reportedly two Storm Shadows were launched, one was either shot down or missed, but other hit underground bunker perfectly, causing collapsing of exit tonnel and underground fire, what led to death by rumors at least 13 servicemen (but othe rrumors say number of dead can be in 2-3 times more). Became knowingly among victims is comamnder of this regiment in colonel rank.

This was important command center, supplying Moscow with information about aerial situation over Crimea. 

Simultaiously with this command center near Sevastopol, UKR missiles and drones reportedly hit antennas of satellite control and communication center near Yevaptoria, also Saky airfield was hit and warehouses near one of villages (this strike was on 4th of Jan)

  

Edited January 13 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

This morning Russia again conducted missile strike on Ukraine and again most of missiles were either ballistic or high-speed super-sonic. There were impacts in Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv and Kharkiv oblast, Shostka (Sumy oblast - there was a military factory, but unknown eithr it works now or not, because this cit is close to the border), western Ukraine

Total were launched:

3 Shaheds (0 shot down)

7 S-300 (0)

6 Kh-47 Kinzhal (0, but only 3 hit targets or close to them)

12 Kh-101 (7 + 13th missile crashed in Krasnodar region of Russia)

6 Kh-22 (0)

4 Kh-59 (1)

2 Kh-31P (0)

Air Force Command claimed despite only 8 taghets of 40 were intercepted, but 20 aerial attack assets didn't reach own targets due to EW systems work (I veeery doubt) and due to bad quality of missile assembling on Russian factories  

 

Edited January 13 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

9 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

The goal is not to keep the war in Ukraine going forever. But the primary war aim is not that Ukraine wins this war or takes back all territory. That's also an aim, but it's secondary.

I think that the reason we see so slow drip-feeing of assistance is that the primary Western goal is to avoid escalation, and not only on the battlefield, but also to avoid a chaotic collapse of Russia.

This.

I didn't keep track of this but back in 2022 there was quite the controversy in Germany because top politicians, including Scholz, refused to say the goal was that Ukraine should win. They said Ukraine must not lose or Russia must not win but never Ukraine must win. I think so far that hasn't changed.

[OBJ]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This morning Russia again conducted missile strike on Ukraine and again most of missiles were either ballistic or high-speed super-sonic. There were impacts in Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv and Kharkiv oblast, Shostka (Sumy oblast - there was a military factory, but unknown eithr it works now or not, because this cit is close to the border), western Ukraine

Total were launched:

3 Shaheds (0 shot down)

7 S-300 (0)

6 Kh-47 Kinzhal (0, but only 3 hit targets or close to them)

12 Kh-101 (7 + 13th missile crashed in Krasnodar region of Russia)

6 Kh-22 (0)

4 Kh-59 (1)

2 Kh-31P (0)

Air Force Command claimed despite only 8 taghets of 40 were intercepted, but 20 aerial attack assets didn't reach own targets due to EW systems work (I veeery doubt) and due to bad quality of missile assembling on Russian factories  

 

Just me or number of missiles being shot down is way down?

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, OBJ said:

Just me or number of missiles being shot down is way down?

Already answered on this. We can't shot down ballistic and high-speed cruise, ground/aerial launched missiles (Kh-22, Kh-31P, Onix), because we have only one PAC-3 and one SAMP/T battery, capable to do this. But they guard Kyiv. Also we have probably two or three PAC-2 batteries, which almost ineffective against these targets

Edited January 13 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

38 minutes ago, Butschi said:

This.

I didn't keep track of this but back in 2022 there was quite the controversy in Germany because top politicians, including Scholz, refused to say the goal was that Ukraine should win. They said Ukraine must not lose or Russia must not win but never Ukraine must win. I think so far that hasn't changed.

Germany is an outlier in this regard and has been since the beginning of the conflict. The US has been dealing with an internal political crisis that is slowing aid but large majorities our Congress are in favor of it. Britain, Italy, the Baltics, Scandinavia have shown very little hesitation all things being equal. The German perspective on this distorts the larger picture but even then, Germany has been a fairly generous provider of aid and Scholtz' position is changing for the better: 

https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-raises-pressure-eu-countries-beef-up-military-aid-ukraine-budget-germany/

[OBJ]

46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Already answered on this. We can't shot down ballistic and high-speed cruise, ground/aerial launched missiles (Kh-22, Kh-31P, Onix), because we have only one PAC-3 and one SAMP/T battery, capable to do this. But they guard Kyiv. Also we have probably two or three PAC-2 batteries, which almost ineffective against these targets

Thanks @Haiduk appreciate the quick response, also your unique and consistent information sharing to this forum. Apologies if I caused a repeat.

I was perhaps incorrectly connecting dots between significantly lesser shoot downs and what I thought was some Russian success in attrition of most capable Ukrainian air defense systems. With the stalemate on the ground it would certainly seem to be important for the West to support and supply a very capable Ukrainian air defense along with keeping Ukraine strong in all the other domains.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-failed-shoot-down-33-russian-missiles-deadly-attack/story?id=106193589#:~:text=The success rate -- 35,reports from Ukraine's air force.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-air-defense-missiles-95cf7f351d05c0c4b704d9fe8a0c5f39

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/06/world/europe/ukraine-patriots-us.html

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-missiles-crimea-cyberattack-d44099272ac424081df3a81c3a042087

Edited January 13 by OBJ

[poesel]

4 hours ago, Hapless said:

Reputed reasoning for that chunky fire in St. Petersburg: the company has been forcing employees to join up and the employees have had enough.

This sounds so amazingly corrosive, in so many ways.

How come that they can press those company workers into service? I thought Petersburg & Moscow were mostly exempt from such actions?

[Haiduk]

Sensation! Russian captured one of those notorious and elusive Polish mercenery in Krynky! 

Native Polish speakers can evaluate level of copium %)

This guy says usual thing, he lives in Pulawy and came to Ukraine for money, Russian shelled Krynky, his Ukrianian unit fled and abandoned him wounded. In captivity he feels good, even better then in ZSU, got proper treatment

 

 

Edited January 13 by Haiduk

[The Steppenwulf]

3 hours ago, OBJ said:

Sorry @Bulletpoint just my opinion, which comes as standard issue to all of us, I can't see this happening, "The average Russian has to be made well and truly sick of this war, and responsibility has to be eventually placed on Putin. I think that's the actual US (and therefore Nato) plan." I think you were closer to the mark with, "I think that the reason we see so slow drip-feeing of assistance is that the primary Western goal is to avoid escalation, and not only on the battlefield, but also to avoid a chaotic collapse of Russia."

I continue to maintain, as I stated on this thread a few months into the very start of this conflict, that the specific strategic goal here is about maintaining off-ramp conditions for the Kremlin. In other words, 'you (Russia) cannot win this war so negotiate your way out of it, when you are ready, and whenever that might be!'

Such an event (perhaps an inevitability) leaves Russia with strategic defeat - for all the reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum on this thread - yet during the process of reaching this realisation, there is superlative management of risk avoiding direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Thus Russia decides its own losing fate, rather than defeat being imposed directly upon it by decisive military action.

This then is the escalation management strategy; the west maintains control of the levers but only pulls them as required to shut down Putin's options and drive Russia into an ever decreasing cul de sac.

Consider the vast majority of post WW2 military conflicts undertaken by the 'super-powers', and the 'moral of the tale' is telling; assuming continuing resistance to invasion/occupation, the long term cost-benefit is so damaging to the aggressor/occupier that withdrawal negotiations (off-ramp) is inevitable. 

In this then, the west has already sowed the conditions for the end of the current Russian regime, simply a repeat of events following Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in the 90's.
 

Edited January 13 by The Steppenwulf

[Haiduk]

Leo 2A6, survived after ATGM hit

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

How come that they can press those company workers into service? I thought Petersburg & Moscow were mostly exempt from such actions?

These are not mobiks but rather...pressed volunteers or similar term. These places often consist of unregistred migrant workers from outsourced companies (you can check videos from event, most workers look central-asiatic). There are hundreds of ways these people can end in service, usually with silent knowledge of their local co-workers. Bribes, blackmails, sometimes little coercion, all builded on ignorance of law and naturally lack of NGO's that would help in normal country. Usually exercized on people without local connections, legal permits or even knowledge of Russian. Reportedly sometimes they are unaware what is going on until they see gate of barracks. And big cities in Mordor are full of such potentiall recruits, thus why there. Locals know about it and are very content of such replacements.

Overall these are not large numbers, perhaps in low thousands total. There were some detailed articles in opposition press like Meduza half year ago about procedures; sometimes recruiting office need to meet quotas pressed by top, so they reach to their secret "fishing pools" full of chornyje lyudi ("blacks"). Curiously, there were even scandals between some officers that were in official Russian press, some less patriotic not wanting to say were best places for fishing are. Naturally, bribes from workers were involved.

It's probably good job to be recruiting officer in Russia right now. Stressfull but profitable.

51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Sensation! Russian captured one of those notorious and elusive Polish mercenery in Krynky! 

Native Polish speakers can evaluate level of copium %)

This guy says usual thing, he lives in Pulawy and came to Ukraine for money, Russian shelled Krynky, his Ukrianian unit fled and abandoned him wounded. In captivity he feels good, even better then in ZSU, got proper treatment

FSB always delivers best Lolz Content. Lately they captured another "Polish spy" who naturally kept in his room German flakctern jacket, book about SS, nunchako... and Polish constitution.

Because, you know.

https://twitter.com/mic_marek/status/1745782859040776430

Edited January 13 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

As I mentioned above, except devastate strike on Jan 6 on underground command bunker of radar regiment near Sevastopol, causing a death of regiment commander and more than dozen of servicemen, Saky airfield also was hit with Storm Shadow (Russian sources claimed four were launched, two intercepted, two hit target). Became knowingly in this strike command center of 43rd assault naval aviation regiment was hit with 4 KIA. Amid victims - deputy commander of regiment lt.colonel  Alexandr Chernobayevskiy.

Despite this regiment is amed as "assault", indeed it armed with Su-30SM and later due to losses several Su-24M/MR were included back (in 2000 - 2016 43rd regiment had Su-24) 

 

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, that makes a kinda sense.  So where is the RA artillery and ISR?  A tank and a CV90 to clear a trench of 3-4 Russians is a pretty big force, and a big target.  

This is a pure guess, but I strongly suspect this is a counter attack on a Russian unit that managed to make it through the main defensive belt. The CV90 was driving like it was completely unworried about mines, or long rage fires, and clearly the Ukrainians wanted that batch of Russians gone soonest.

4 hours ago, OBJ said:

Anybody read Mick Ryan, retired Australian two star? 

https://www.amazon.com/Books-Mick-Ryan/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3AMick+Ryan

1st two.

He talks a lot about future tactical (Company level) units fully integrating UAVs, UGVs, humans and AFVs. 

The book is mostly OK, but he posits more technological change than I think is possible by the date he sets the war. Some of the stuff he speculates about we are not going to see until 2040 or later, and nobody can accuse me of being a pessimist on technological progress.

1 hour ago, poesel said:

How come that they can press those company workers into service? I thought Petersburg & Moscow were mostly exempt from such actions?

The way the Russians are recruiting in European russia amounts to ethnic cleansing, I believe this is a matter of deliberate policy

3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Also I’m liking the 120mm mortar as a replacement for tank direct fire more and more. It should be possible to deploy a loitering munition from one, or a super ****ty GLSDB analog, but mini and direct it from the overwatch drone.

There is just no reason anymore for anything bigger than a 40mm grenade to be delivered by direct fire. UGVs with a mix of machine guns, 25mm auto cannon, and 40mm grenade launchers can be backed up by whatever kind of PGM it is most economical to bring to bear. 

If I may push one of my favorite pet ideas, even 40mm grenade launchers should be set up for accurate drone directed indirect fire. I am at the point if bribing Steve to put that in the next modern game just to prove my point.

[kimbosbread]

47 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There is just no reason anymore for anything bigger than a 40mm grenade to be delivered by direct fire. UGVs with a mix of machine guns, 25mm auto cannon, and 40mm grenade launchers can be backed up by whatever kind of PGM it is most economical to bring to bear. 

100%

47 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If I may push one of my favorite pet ideas, even 40mm grenade launchers should be set up for accurate drone directed indirect fire. I am at the point if bribing Steve to put that in the next modern game just to prove my point.

I’ll go even further and say this should exist for all weapons, be it hand grenades and rifles on up. The drone-enabled ISR should be able to tell you “throw a few grenades over this wall”. Once we have heads up displays (or basic bitch huds in the rifle optics) there is not reason you can’t project an aiming point that gives you a nice ballistic arc. That’s the minimum viable product version of this, and it should be almost trivially easy to write software to compute this on the drone side that calculates rough GPS coordinates, and can bracket fires.

The challenge is the aiming interface on the ground-based weapon honestly. Even if it’s manually aimed, how do you show the soldier where to aim it? AGLs and m2s aren’t really set up to hit a certain GPS coordinate, so obviously a computer controlled turret is great, but that’s an extra level of computation. Maybe you strap an ipad on top of the thing and that gives you an augmented reality aiming point? Easy to write the software for too, vs some crazy proprietary hud.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, kimbosbread said:

100%

I’ll go even further and say this should exist for all weapons, be it hand grenades and rifles on up. The drone-enabled ISR should be able to tell you “throw a few grenades over this wall”. Once we have heads up displays (or basic bitch huds in the rifle optics) there is not reason you can’t project an aiming point that gives you a nice ballistic arc. That’s the minimum viable product version of this, and it should be almost trivially easy to write software to compute this on the drone side that calculates rough GPS coordinates, and can bracket fires.

The challenge is the aiming interface on the ground-based weapon honestly. Even if it’s manually aimed, how do you show the soldier where to aim it? AGLs and m2s aren’t really set up to hit a certain GPS coordinate, so obviously a computer controlled turret is great, but that’s an extra level of computation. Maybe you strap an ipad on top of the thing and that gives you an augmented reality aiming point? Easy to write the software for too, vs some crazy proprietary hud.

They need a universal system  for everything from 120mm mortars on down. Specify a mounting rail that will go on everything, and just have a glorified cell phone with a menu that you can pick what you just stuck it on, and the comm protocols to communicate with a drone.

We have seen some videos of Bradleys appearing to do drone corrected indirect fire with devastating results, even though I am pretty sure that was voice only. The gunner in the Bradley ought to be getting video directly from the drone with a cursor showing where the rounds are going to impact. And course it would work the same way with a UGV. 

[kimbosbread]

25 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They need a universal system  for everything from 120mm mortars on down. Specify a mounting rail that will go on everything, and just have a glorified cell phone with a menu that you can pick what you just stuck it on, and the comm protocols to communicate with a drone.

We have a common rail system, thankfully!

Protocol is un-necessary for MVP: Just have the drone guy tell you the GPS coordinates, and plug those into your universal firing computer. Drone-controlled firing and bracketing is version 2.

I like the idea of the cell-phone that attaches to the rail. User interface is easy:

• Enter GPS coordinates of weapons system, or use onboard GPS
• Enter type of weapons system
• Enter target GPS coordinates
• Aim weapons system, and the phone display shows you crosshair representing aim point of weapons system, and then another crosshair representing aim point to hit target. Line them up, phone makes a sound or flashes and you pull the trigger.

EDIT: So here’s the challenge: How do I zero our cell-phone firing computer? Do I need to have a known zero? Can I just estimate things based on accelerometers and a laser level and say “meh good enough” and hit stuff 5km away?

EDIT2: Is this even worth the effort of developing and building, when I could just have more kamikaze drones?

Edited January 13 by kimbosbread

[Jarran]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

One more brigade got Sweden CV90. Before this we have 50 CV90 in 21st mech.brigade and at least one battlion of 93rd mech.brigade. Now these vehicles have appeared in 14th mech.brigade

On the video is a rare example of CV90 work - after UKR tank shot out Russian trench at point blank range, IFV disembarked a squad for cleaning the trench. This is Kupiansk direction

 

Unlurking from the shadows to add something. This looks to be a Lvkv 90C ( The AA variant) at 00:46 it looks to be a radar dome ontop of the turret.

From what I can find 3 Lvkv 90A was uppgraded to the Ceasar standard (C-version) and I guess all of them where given to Ukraine.

Was looking at other pictures to see if it could maybe be a Norwegian one with a kongsberg remote weapon station. But it looks more like a barrel. To bad quality on the video to be 100 % sure. (Norway is talking about sending some of their Cv90 aswell.)

Starts lurking again. // Jarran

[poesel]

2 hours ago, The Steppenwulf said:

I continue to maintain, as I stated on this thread a few months into the very start of this conflict, that the specific strategic goal here is about maintaining off-ramp conditions for the Kremlin. In other words, 'you (Russia) cannot win this war so negotiate your way out of it, when you are ready, and whenever that might be!'

Let's assume that this is correct (and I think it's likely) and also that Putin is aware of this.

So his counter-strategy is to dig in to keep what he has and to mount some attacks to be seen active to the Russian public. And at the same time not annoy the important people and get rid of the unwanted or unnecessary.

I don't see Putin run out of money or people anytime soon. The same goes for (enough) support from the West, and the Ukrainians have no choice.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

We have a common rail system, thankfully!

Protocol is un-necessary for MVP: Just have the drone guy tell you the GPS coordinates, and plug those into your universal firing computer. Drone-controlled firing and bracketing is version 2.

I like the idea of the cell-phone that attaches to the rail. User interface is easy:

• Enter GPS coordinates of weapons system, or use onboard GPS
• Enter type of weapons system
• Enter target GPS coordinates
• Aim weapons system, and the phone display shows you crosshair representing aim point of weapons system, and then another crosshair representing aim point to hit target. Line them up, phone makes a sound or flashes and you pull the trigger.

EDIT: So here’s the challenge: How do I zero our cell-phone firing computer? Do I need to have a known zero? Can I just estimate things based on accelerometers and a laser level and say “meh good enough” and hit stuff 5km away?

EDIT2: Is this even worth the effort of developing and building, when I could just have more kamikaze drones?

As useful as FPVs are, it always good to have a few more tools in the box. Furthermore we aren't talking about any new tech. My Iphone has a compass, an inclinometer, and a GPS. The rest of it is just packaging and software. Even with a nice high durability and waterproof case we are talking about a few hundred dollars if ordered by the tens of thousands.