How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

50 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think civilians should ever be targeted.

But even if we accept the argument that Russians need to be attacked and made afraid in order to make them oppose the war, you should not bomb some tiny border town where people have no say in anything.

The only thing their deaths will accomplish is to provide perfect fuel for the Russian propaganda machine.

You should attack Moscow, and especially the areas where the Russian elite lives.

 

I agree. Morale and legal implications aside (and we really shouldn't brush them aside so easily), when has bombing civilians ever worked out the way it was rationalized by those who did it? I can't think of even one instance. At best the victims are apathetic because they are busy surviving now, at worst they flock to the very regime against which they were supposed to rise up.

There were some practical implications like the Luftwaffe having to defend German cities instead of fighting the red army but those were by products of the bombing campaign not the main goal.

If you are going to do it, strike Moscow instead of some smaller town because it may erode trust in the regime - it can't even protect the capital. Apart from that, civilian casualties are exactly what a propaganda apparatus worth its money is hoping for.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Butschi

[Eddy]

10 minutes ago, Butschi said:

when has bombing civilians ever worked out the way it was rationalized by those who did it?

Rotterdam?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

I think that after the attacks on residential areas, many of those who hesitated will happily join the ranks of the Russian army

I very doubt common IT specialist or any other of middle class of large Russian cities will hurry to enlistment office after this. Rather they join to so called "relocants" - those who went abroad. Snobbery of Russian midlde class so high, that they can't recognize themeselves neither as "political refugees" (because they are "out of policy"), nor as just "refugees of migrants" (because this is humilitating for their ego). And from there they will complain how boring in western countries, how it's bad because no Russian language in restourant menus, what a terrible service westerners have, because no 24/7 supermarkets and nobody will not deliver them pizza or analgin at 2:00 of night, and why rusophobic westerners call them "agressors" and didn't want give them resident card. 

This "relocants" already claimed something like "Ah, rusophobia of westerners and Ukrainians so high, that we now will stop to donate for AFU and will support Putin, we have no choice". Really? I do not care what these "liberals" can think. They too coward to make any decisive thing - either come to meeting against the war or enlist to army. What they want - comfort life, where they coul feel them like little nobles, and some more poor serve them, delivering them pizza at the night for a penny and lot of obscene words. 

Real "good Russians" never hesitated who is guilted, never say "not everything is so clear" and they clearly kno what need to do to stop the war. And this is not hypocritic "you should start negotiations" and "we are not responsible for Putin's crimes, so no any reaparations from usual Russians!"

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

you should not bomb some tiny border town

Belgorod is not "tiny". This is oblast administrative center with 330 000 of population. The city has five machine-building factories, most of them also have orders from MoD. Not saying now this is important railway hub and location of AD assets, attacking Kharkiv as well as place of many military units around

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Rotterdam?

Hiroshima and Nagasaki - two nukes and Japan is capitulated. No bloody fight for country occupation, no sea battles, dozen thousands of Allied soldiers lives resqued. Not always peace time morale useful at the war. Especially if this war is not a conflict between cicvilized countries, but total war "we are or they are" between civilization and barbarism. You will never win barbarians if you show "humanism". They recognize this like your weakness. Barabarians respect and understand only brutal force 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

28 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Rotterdam?

Rotterdam was a contested city, so the bombing pre May 14th was not indiscriminate bombing, I think (though I'm really no expert on the topic). The most devastating bombing run happened after the Dutch has started negotiating the trend of surrendering.

[Haiduk]

China is fueling Russia in their war. Biden is correct - if so-called democracy world will allow Russia to win, next time western soldiers will die in future war, which will come very quickly.

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Hard to tell. All the (absolutely no less devastating) attacks on Japanese cities did not make them surrender. And it is still a matter of debate whether Hiroshima and Nagasaki caused the surrender or the Soviet invasion of Manchuria. Or a combination of other factors and those events just tipped the scales.

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of S-300 strike on Kharkiv from Belgorod. Reportedly 16 people wounded according to last information. 

Upd. There were two S-300 hits. One at the hotel, the second is almost completely ruined old building. The hotel is close to regional hospital, where can be treated wounded soldiers too, so maybe hospital was a target. 

British journalist was wounded.

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

China is fueling Russia in their war. Biden is correct - if so-called democracy world will allow Russia to win, next time western soldiers will die in future war, which will come very quickly.

 

Well that was predictable.  Thing is China has zero interest in a strong and competitive Russia.  A weak dependent Russia that is stable predictable and vulnerable is very much in their interests.  Cheap energy, cheap wheat and cheap minerals on a nation entirely dependent on great power for its survival - ah, a dance Canadians know well.

Now whether we wind up in a shooting war with China is another topic entirely.  One we have bounced around.  But as for Russia, well other than a reason to spend billions in NATO defence industries, I am not all that worried about Russia emerging from this war ready for another.  One second to midnight at a time.

[Eddy]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Aftermath of S-300 strike on Kharkiv from Belgorod. Reportedly 16 people wounded according to last information. 

@Haiduk do you know how many missiles in total were launched?

[OBJ]

While we're on the topic of terror bombing civilians, for those that have the time and interest I recommend "Masters of the Air" by Donald L Miller. It's an interesting read on the US air campaign over Europe 1942-1945. The results of the Bombing Survey probably most of interest in this conversation. My take away was terror bombing is counter productive. 

https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Masters-of-the-Air/Donald-L-Miller/9780743235457

Edited December 30, 2023 by OBJ

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Eddy said:

@Haiduk do you know how many missiles in total were launched?

I updated the post. Two missiles.

[FancyCat]

Well, we don't know if Ukraine deliberately stuck civilian targets, or whether it was merely air defense mishaps like we seen before. 

Two, domestic morale is important too. Belgorod is also a major border city, there was hope that some sort of anti-war sentiment would rise considering the close relations between it and Kharkiv, yet like the rest of anti-war hopes, those never occurred, Kharkiv endures missile attacks from Belgorod many times too fast for warnings I believe? 

But again, do we have actual evidence this was a deliberate action? 

 

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Kharkiv endures missile attacks from Belgorod many times too fast for warnings I believe? 

I've been traveling to Kharkiv three times by my work in this year, so my clients there said if they hear air raid alarm signal, that with big probability nothing will happen. Because of most of strikes on the city Russian make with S-300/400 or Iskanders from Belgorod oblast. Fly time so low, that AD systems just havn't a time to switch on an air raid alarm signal. So, in first order they hear BOOM and then since a minuite sirenes are on.  

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

42 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I very doubt common IT specialist or any other of middle class of large Russian cities will hurry to enlistment office after this.

 

The population of Russian cities does not consist only of IT specialists and the middle class.

44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Really? I do not care what these "liberals" can think.

This is exactly what I wrote about several posts above. Ukrainians are not at all interested in the real destruction of Russia. Instead of making efforts and intensifying work to involve the Russian middle class in the destruction of Russia, they come out with bile, inventing humiliating curses against Russians without a clear position on this war. Let me remind you that Putin takes recruiting and persuading Ukrainians without a clear position in this war quite seriously, and he has had significant success in this. Ukrainian society today is practically split, including by the successful information and psychological operation of the Russian special services.

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hiroshima and Nagasaki - two nukes and Japan is capitulated.

Oh what a shame, Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons

40 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

ot always peace time morale useful at the war. Especially if this war is not a conflict between cicvilized countries, but total war "we are or they are" between civilization and barbarism.

Yes, but then you yourself become a barbarian, don't you? Or by becoming a barbarian you can actually defeat barbarism. I'm completely confused by your logic

42 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

They recognize this like your weakness. Barabarians respect and understand only brutal force 

Only if you have "power". There is no need to make the world laugh by attacking a large metropolis with several dozen cardboard drones. Russia has the largest missile production and yet it cannot crush Ukraine. Why do we need this pathetic “cargo cult” with attacks on Russian cities, why should we copy the actions of the barbarians?

[Eddy]

43 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Rotterdam was a contested city

I did not know German troops were in Rotterdam at the time, so thanks for that 

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, but then you yourself become a barbarian, don't you?

Neither USA, nor UK, France, Australia etc didn't became "barbarical societies" after WWII. Though their aviation was bombing Axis cities, causing death of dozen thousands. Existential wars or wars for independence never wage in white coats and gloves. All who think this is possible will get defeat.  

I don't believe that Russians can overthrow Putin themselves - only when they will feel a lack of food, like in 1917. But Russians will elect the same like a Putin, who will offer "make a Russia great again". Those, who have a bravery to fight with system too few. And most of them are in jails or in RDK or LFR - and these units Russian "liberals" hate very strong, because they show them all their pathetic and cowardness "we can't uprise, because they will beat us and throw to jails". If Russian is still "hesitating" after two years of war - he is just hidden imperialist under liberal skin. Russia deserve for worst scenartio. Even this can give a chance to heal their nation from inner slavery, snobbery, chavinism and imperialism.  

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Neither USA, nor UK, France, Australia etc didn't became "barbarical societies" after WWII.

Both the USA and Great Britain in the 40s were completely barbaric states in the modern sense of the word. Great Britain was a colonial country, and racism flourished in full force in the USA. 

Over the past decades, these countries have changed beyond recognition.

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

don't believe that Russians can overthrow Putin themselves.

This is what I'm talking about. Why work in this direction, it’s better to come up with a couple of new curse words for Russians. Typical position of stupid and lazy hohols.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

China is fueling Russia in their war.

... oooor Russia is fueling the Chinese economy.

We (this board, not you and I) have had this discussion before - you should not assume that an increase in $value maps 1:1 to an increase in volume delivered. Russia right now has very few suppliers worth a damn (oooh yaaay. Russia can import ... something? ... from ... Tanganyika? Cooool.). The few that it does has - primarily China - can set whatever prices they like.

I doubt that China is straight-up gifting billions upon billions of dollars in civil and military aid to Russia in the way the West is for Ukraine.

Edited December 30, 2023 by JonS

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, JonS said:

I doubt that China is straight-up gifting billions upon billions of dollars in civil and military aid to Russia in the way the West has for Ukraine.

Why not though?

When we prop up Ukraine it's out of self interest. Why wouldn't China help Russia in the same way?

[OBJ]

We can ask @The_Capt, but my impression is much of what came out of the 1949 Geneva convention and associated protocols was a direct result of what all parties experienced in WWII. The people that 'won' were trying to create rules and enforcement mechanism that prevented them, and others, from, in part, adopting behaviors most likely to increase pain and suffering of civilians while prolonging any future conflict.

From a war fighting practical point of view their post war data seemed to indicate all terror bombing civilians did was make the enemy regime stronger, more resilient, more determined to resist, the opposite effect they were going for which was to break the enemy's will to resist.

[JonS]

@Bulletpoint

Different objectives, different motivations.

The West wants rule of law, free trade, and predictability. You know, all the things that allow rich folks to become richer. And, weirdly, that's one of the few things that rich folks are ready to see "their" taxes spent on. They'd still prefer it was your taxes being spent on it, but at a pinch they're prepared to grudgingly chip in a few pieces of silver.

Uh, where was I? Oh, right; rule of law, free trade, predictability. Both the existence of Ukraine as a prosperous and independent country, and the outcome of the war in Ukraine are important for those things. Therefore those things are worth investing in by giving Ukraine literal tons of free stuff now in order to reap the global trade payoff later.

China seems happy to use Russia as a cat's paw to mess with those things, and maybe thereby gain some maneuver space in the Pacific. But I doubt they care about Russia, or the outcome of the war, per se. Russia is failing and falling - it has been for a while, and the last couple of years has accelerated that. China might as well cash in while they still can. Sell their stuff at high prices, buy Russian stuff at low prices, while figuring out WTF they're going to do about Siberia if/when Russia disintegrates.

Edited December 30, 2023 by JonS

[poesel]

Let's just assume that Ukraine bombed Belgorod and killed civilians as a by product. That was what has been reported by the mass media here.

The reaction (here): nothing.

Is that the same everywhere? I am really surprised that the public takes such an attack with a shrug. It is not the first time Ukraine attacked Russia directly but not with this dimension.

IMO, Ukraine just learned that it is ok with the west to retaliate to Russia in kind (as long as no western weapons are used). That would change the character of this war.