How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

But this is really great news, if it’s true. If our air command can manage this asset wisely, then this, along with the F-16, will be a significant strengthening of our air warfare capabilities

This will not go to Ukraine.

Australia is moving the E-7A to Europe where it will become part of the ISR network that provides target information to Ukraine, but it will not belong to Ukraine. It will not enter Ukrainian airspace. The base of operations will be Germany.

 

https://www.defence.gov.au/news-events/news/2023-10-25/continuing-support-ukraine

Edited December 23, 2023 by Carolus

[OBJ]

4 hours ago, hcrof said:

I am quoting Steve but this is a general comment: isn't a line charge just dumb mass? You don't need hundreds of kg of explosives if you drop a small charge on every mine individually and that means you can clear a wider path with fewer assets. Sure you might miss some but it is not like a line charge is 100% effective either. 

The key is to adequately map the field first but I am sure a combination of ground penetrating radar, infra red, LiDAR etc combined with clever post-processing would do the trick.

What do we think the relative 'time to clear' between using GPR/sensors and individual charges vs long or linked line charges? If the time is the same or difference negligible, what do we think the likelihood of incomplete clearance would be?

Credit to Steve, my limited knowledge of present heavy lift drone capability makes pulling a 'light' lead line across the mine field possible now, the anchoring, strength and power source needed for the winch to pull the MICLIC into position I am not so sure of. What @poesel said with calculations.

Edited December 23, 2023 by OBJ

[Zeleban]

 

Volunteers of the 2nd Foreign Legion in battle in Serebryansky Forest, in the Limansky direction

[JonS]

@The_Capt

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/301032108/putin-ally-behind-bomb-that-killed-wagner-boss-new-report-alleges

Looks like it was a polyamorous relationship that became toxic.

[Haiduk]

Russians, alas, have steady advance on the northern flank of Bakhmut. Here they concentrated at least two regiments of three from 98th VDV division and in last days moved here also 11th air-assault brigade. Total Russian Troops Groupmemt "South", operating from Soledar to Maryinka has two VDV division (98th, 106th) and three air-assault brigades (11th, 31st, 83rd)

Yesterday Russians could enter to NE part of Bohdanivka village, which wasn't occupied since Wagner assaults of past winter

Edited December 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

 

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, JonS said:

@The_Capt

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/301032108/putin-ally-behind-bomb-that-killed-wagner-boss-new-report-alleges

Looks like it was a polyamorous relationship that became toxic.

 

[kimbosbread]

For your MLIC, why not make the line fly itself, or at least glide? Take some inspiration from my wife’s least favorite animal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysopelea

[JonS]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 

 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, OBJ said:

Hmmm, yes, flying (light and heavy) drone use expanded beyond ISR and PVR attack into other missions, breaching, counter ISR, infantry transport, casualty evac, resupply, etc... and anti-infantry (link), this one, machinegun armed, 200 rounds, allegedly 100% accurate on human sized targets out to 200m. Critically no mention of endurance. 

https://futurism.com/turkey-buy-drone-machine-gun

From the article:
"But as more and more armed drones emerge, it seems like just a matter of time before militaries decide to remove human operators from the equation altogether. In fact, that may already be happening as United States Defense Secretary Mark Esper accused China in November of selling autonomous killer drones to nations in the Middle East.

So, while the drones that Asisguard plans to sell to Turkey later this month might require a human operator, there's a chance the next armed drones the nation adds to its arsenal will be autonomous — and that'll be when things get really scary."

Are we seeing the early signs of two tracks and two legs being replaced by four nacelled rotors? My opinion, near future, next 50 years, replacement no, major supplement yes, maybe something like the tank joining the infantry-artillery team 1916-1945, potentially a whole new arm, perhaps a new, 'arm of decision,' as well as a new form of vehicle mobility in many existing arms.

'And discuss,' this last quote attributable to others, LLF I think.

“It's called the Songar, and it can carry 200 rounds of ammunition. A New Scientiststory notes that the drone is accurate enough to hit a human target with every bullet fired from 200 meters (656 feet) away — a devastating level of accuracy in the already troubling space of drone warfare.”

Super interesting but this seems a bit of a stretch (bit defined as, well, rather large). I’m curious if there’s any literature out there that discusses the ballistic accuracy of firearms from a drone? 

Edited December 23, 2023 by billbindc

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

@The_Capt

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/301032108/putin-ally-behind-bomb-that-killed-wagner-boss-new-report-alleges

Looks like it was a polyamorous relationship that became toxic.

Yeesh. 

On a serious note, Nikolai Patrushev is/was engaging in a bit of dynastic estate planning by killing off Prigozhin. His sons (Andrei and Dmitry) and his kvost have well developed post Putin plans: 

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2022/08/patrushev-family-lays-heavy-hand-arctic-energy

Keep an eye on these folks. They will be serious contenders when Vlad pops his clogs. 

 

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, JonS said:

 

Yeesh and I thought the CRTC was bad.  Copyright?  Seriously?!  People in North Korea are probably looking at NZ in pity.

Regardless, Priggy will be missed for entertainment value alone.  His abortive march to Moscow was the longest and fastest offensive drive this entire war.  You know Putin has a locket with one of Priggy’s eyelashes in it.  

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

Ok, let's assume 100m of breaching. At about 7,5kg/m (see above) we are talking about 750kg for the weight of the line. Since you are dragging it, friction comes into play, so we double that number to 1,5t. Then the line has to be strong enough to pull itself, add weight. It has to structurally survive the whole dragging process (the C4 and the ignition mechanism have to stay in place and operable) - add weight. Let's say the whole thing equals to a pulling weight of about 2t.

Now you need a winch that can pull 2t. But unless you pull that apparatus across a parking lot, there will be snags. They only way to unclog them is to pull harder. So add 50% for safety. Just found a 6t electrical winch on Amazon. Comes with a remote, that's nice. It weighs about 30kg. It pulls with 4,5kW at 5m/min. To run the winch for 20 minutes (100m / 5m/min) you need a battery with 2kWh. Another 20kg.

So the winch assembly is about 50kg that you need to bring to the other side of the minefield and deploy it there. By deploy, I mean you need it to fix it to the ground to withstand at least 3t of pulling force (or 30kN for those who care).
I frankly have no idea how to pull that off apart from sending a human to do it. Which is a showstopper here.

 

I'd rather fly in 10m pieces one at a time.

I proposed exactly that a few pages ago

 

Ok no bad idea time but no one bips off on this?  Meanwhile jet packs - of which there are multiple videos - that gets potshots?  

Seriously, so if I am understanding this right, using 10m sections would require 50 flights by a heavy drone for each charge.  I am still not sure what the detonation plan is here.  Light them off one at a time after they are dropped?  Or all at once?  One at a time is going to pretty visible as we are talking about 50 individual explosions.  All at one is likely better, particularly if you lay them at night/under smoke, but then you get into how does one simultaneously detonate 50 x 10m charges at the exact same time?  Any delays could cause blow aways and gaps in the lane.

And you still need heavy vehicle based proving once the breach is in regardless.  Explosives are not 100%. And the risk is obvious, the lead vehicle gets taken out and all the rest now either try and turn around or have to go around into uncleared space.  So a proving system is a must and right now those are mine rollers.

If one can actually see each individual mine then a UGV dropping small shaped charges with simultaneous detonation is a much better way to go.  Even if you get a mis-time the odds will be that they won’t blow away the next charges.  And even then one will need to use rollers to prove..and we are back to a vehicle.

To be honest I am a lot less worried on how to breach the minefield - there are plenty of good systems for this.  The major problem is how to secure/isolate the minefield so the breach can happen.  

Edited December 23, 2023 by The_Capt

[hcrof]

2 hours ago, OBJ said:

What do we think the relative 'time to clear' between using GPR/sensors and individual charges vs long or linked line charges? If the time is the same or difference negligible, what do we think the likelihood of incomplete clearance would be?

Credit to Steve, my limited knowledge of present heavy lift drone capability makes pulling a 'light' lead line across the mine field possible now, the anchoring, strength and power source needed for the winch to pull the MICLIC into position I am not so sure of. What @poesel said with calculations.

I think using distributed drones it would take much longer so the tactics would need to change. You might need to map out many potential breach zones to keep the enemy guessing which area being snooped by drones is the one that will be attacked. You might try to scan at night, or in heavy fog, or while the defender is distracted by something else. 

The exploding part would be faster though, and much more surprising since a bunch of drones will appear out of nowhere and then your minefield blows up moments before the first vehicle hits the breach. Not like watching a heavy vehicle trundle towards the minefield, flinging a charge, waiting for it it settle, it exploding, and then all the vehicle that were kept safely out of range of that massive explosion drive towards the breach. 

[The_Capt]

Interesting articles on Russian tank production:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/17/the-russian-army-could-run-out-of-tanks-in-a-few-years-what-happens-then/?sh=2cc92c502061
 

https://wavellroom.com/2023/05/01/1500-new-and-modernised-tanks-really/

Edit:  news isn’t so great for UAVs either:

https://jamestown.org/program/russias-drone-industry-hits-serious-turbulence/

https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/russian-military-drones-.pdf

Edited December 23, 2023 by The_Capt

[OBJ]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

“It's called the Songar, and it can carry 200 rounds of ammunition. A New Scientiststory notes that the drone is accurate enough to hit a human target with every bullet fired from 200 meters (656 feet) away — a devastating level of accuracy in the already troubling space of drone warfare.”

Super interesting but this seems a bit of a stretch (bit defined as, well, rather large). I’m curious if there’s any literature out there that discusses the ballistic accuracy of firearms from a drone? 

I agree, all true, they do mention specifically mechanisms to control recoil effects:
"Asisguard equipped the drone with two systems designed to address the issue of recoil affecting accuracy. One uses a group of sensors that account for variables ranging from a target's distance to the current wind speed. The other uses robotic arms to manually move the gun as needed to counteract the recoil."

I agree with you though, the verbiage is from the sales brochure of the manufacturer.

However, there were track laying tractors before there were tanks, just like there were toy drones as kid's toys before... well everything we have now.

Edited December 23, 2023 by OBJ

[OBJ]

Apparently breaking news, NYTs, Putin exploring potential ceasefire in Ukraine?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Need an account to read.

Ceasefire, what would Ukraine need to get to agree to give him this?

Edited December 23, 2023 by OBJ

[kimbosbread]

Why would Putin explore a ceasefire? Kremlinologists, does this indicate weakness on his part, perhaps a fear of Ukraine drone strikes on Russian infrastructure over the winter, or culimination of any remaining offensive potential?

[OBJ]

3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

For your MLIC, why not make the line fly itself, or at least glide? Take some inspiration from my wife’s least favorite animal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysopelea

Wow, flying (gliding) snakes.

Taking this seriously, the idea of man imitating nature, how do you see the 'flying MICLIC' do the equivalent of, starting high up in a tree, 'suck in its abdomen and flaring out its ribs to turn its body into a "pseudo concave wing", all the while making a continual serpentine motion of lateral undulation parallel to the ground to stabilize its direction in midair in order to land safely.

Assuming you are not just putting me on, taking me for a ride

Edited December 23, 2023 by OBJ

[OBJ]

Also this, free to read, at lease for me. Putin proposal Russia keeps everything they occupy now.

https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-putin-open-to-ceasefire-if-russia-keeps-occupied-territories/

As @kimbosbread said, Kremlinologists, thoughts, analysis.

Putin, serious, if so why, if not, why. Why now? Maskirovka, to what end?

Edited December 23, 2023 by OBJ

[OBJ]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Ok no bad idea time

1. And you still need heavy vehicle based proving once the breach is in regardless.  Explosives are not 100%. And the risk is obvious, the lead vehicle gets taken out and all the rest now either try and turn around or have to go around into uncleared space.  So a proving system is a must and right now those are mine rollers.

2. To be honest I am a lot less worried on how to breach the minefield - there are plenty of good systems for this.  The major problem is how to secure/isolate the minefield so the breach can happen.  

"And the risk is obvious, the lead vehicle gets taken out and all the rest now either try and turn around or have to go around into uncleared space.  So a proving system is a must and right now those are mine rollers."

1. I think this is true for any contested breach, regardless of how the breach is made. Speed of breach combined with clearing confidence would both seem to be equally important.

2. The precursor to breaching, all the discussions we've had on the need to clear the defender's ISR abilities in planned breach site and all decoy locals first.

I still like the mobile infantry idea concept but prefer the heavy lift drones over jet packs, still jet packs, as someone else said, what could be sexier than that!

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, OBJ said:

Apparently breaking news, NYTs, Putin exploring potential ceasefire in Ukraine?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Need an account to read.

Ceasefire, what would Ukraine need to get to agree to give him this?

WP, NYT and some other influent media in last time fulfilled with scepticism and defeatism about development of war for Ukraine. It seems "party of appeacement" on the West and Russia achieved some touch points and now actively push agenda about "peace for any cost", "Ukraine must agree to freeze the war to not lose more territories".

Ukrainian information field on background of failed offensive and current crawling advance of Russian army overflowed with bots and real accounts, who sow panic and defeatism moods, call to open the borders and resist to mobilisation measures, pushing the takes about "Ukraine is slavery state with force mobilization like in N.Korea" (most of these bots and useful idiots you can spot via N.Korean flag near nickname in twitter), many posts "why we have to die for corrupted dictatorship of Zelenskiy?" or "We are free people and the state hasn't any right to force us go at the war"

These two sides invested huge money in powerful media and PsyOps campaign to dismoral UKR society and force Ukrainian politics to sit at the negotiation table on Russian formula "peace in exchange for refuting from occupied territories". And they already achieved some successes. Coming large mobilisation already seriously scare many people. Percent of population, who would agree to freeze a war even by the cost of territories rised almost on 10 %  (bigger growth in western and central oblasts) and now is about 19 %

And these Putin's offers of peace is just a cunning turn for public opinion and taxpayers: "Look - Russia offers a peace for Ukraine, which inevitable will be defeated anyway. How this generously! How Putin is great! How he wants to stop this bloody war! But look at this pathetic Ukraine! They want to continue this hopeless war. Their president doesn't spare own nation and will fight to last Ukrainian for own illusions to defeat Russia! So, why we have to pay for these new deaths! Let be a bad peace, than a good war! Let make friendship and make money togrther again!"  

Edited December 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Offshoot said:

An interesting BBC documentary that uses social media posts and other sources to see what happened to Russian marines (155th brigade) around Vuhledar. It is useful as it directly contradicts with evidence what the Russian authorities are saying about the offensive and losses.

 

We've struggled to come up with the correct name for Russia's pre-war "elite" units that are now filled with untrained volunteers.  I think I now have it:

"Elite Meat"

Discuss...

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, OBJ said:

I still like the mobile infantry idea concept but prefer the heavy lift drones over jet packs, still jet packs, as someone else said, what could be sexier than that!

Both systems have advantages and disadvantages.  Jets are fast, but hot and loud with limited range.  Heavy drones have better range  and lift and likely better noise and heat.  But they are likely slower and larger.  I see a combination of all these systems as they kinda offset each other.  Jets for highly mobile JTA(G)S to get them into position quickly.  Heavy Drones to push UGVs, heavy weapons and supplies/ammo.  Heavy drones for med evac.  Small light drones for ISR and FPV/loitering for strike/suppression.  Get the UGVs in place teamed up with human operators and one has a viable bridgehead force that can 1) hunt and kill layback ATGM teams at range, 2) Act as a defence against enemy C-moves, and 3) guide and prep next jumping off point for breakout force.  

Nothing stopping this system from employing an airborne explosive breaching system to keep mass profile low right up until the crossing - I do like that.  Breakout force is likely going to be light but armed to teeth.  Think quads/ATVs and wheels.  Med could follow behind their heels.  Heavy for hardpoints, shoulders and reserve.  Whole damn thing is under a plastic sky of UAS who are suppressing enemy ISR and keeping their UAS at bay.  All the while guns and deep strike, linked into operational ISR are hammering depth and enemy artillery.

Might just work if one could build it.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've struggled to come up with the correct name for Russia's pre-war "elite" units that are now filled with untrained volunteers.  I think I now have it:

"Elite Meat"

Discuss...

Steve

Worst porn name ever....