How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I think the jet packs are only a small part of the operation, with the drone-copters doing the vast majority of the work.  First of all, they can easily return home and change from troop transport to supply transport and can also remove wounded better than any system ever.  I am happy to see that kimbosbread and I agree on something for a change 

Alright Steve we have just outlined the new game, Combat Mission New Model Air Assault, get busy. 

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for this.  On top of what you wrote, Dan hinted at another issue... freezing.  Water goes wherever it wants to go, and when it freezes it can create any number of different problems.  Many of these mines have probably been sitting around in poor storage conditions and, perhaps, were of low quality to start with. This allows water to get into places that the mine is not designed for.  It freezes and reduces, if not eliminates, the ability of the mine to function as designed.

Funny enough, a few days ago I was retelling a story to someone about how my tractor seat has a "kill switch" in it that senses no weight on the seat, which then shuts off the engine.  Well, there was a small tear in the rubber seat cover.  Water eventually made its way through the foam cushion and to the switch.  It froze the switch in the "open" state, which meant no electricity to the starter.  I had to sit on the seat to warm it up and then violently bounce up and down dozens of times to get the switch to function correctly.  Under normal circumstances even 1/2 sitting up on the seat is enough to cut the engine.

Winter in a cold climate can be such fun!

Steve

Back in the “mid 70s”. When, when some auto manufacturers were starting to install seat belt switch systems that would prevent starting the vehicle if the seat belt wasn’t assembled to complete the circuit, people would just splice the necessary wires in a loop to ensure starting. You could probably do the same. No system can be “Idiot-proofed” because idiots are so ingenious!. What humans can create, other humans can defeat!.

[Gpig]

There have been some real outside the box discussions on ways to change the situation on the ground so it favours Ukraine. Tactics, equipment, training etc.

Have there been, or is there some on-going/parallel outside-the-box thinking on ways to change the situation off the battlefield? Not just the usual Sanctions.

I would hope there are different economic, diplomatic (not-so diplomatic) groups/organizations and governments breaking their heads open trying change the calculus in Ukraine's favour.

I realize Putin is not going to negotiate, at all. But what has been tried so far is only kinda working (it seems). Or might have an effect, in the long term. In the meantime, I hate to see more Ukrainians dying.

Feels like there should be a diplomatic special-forces equivalent group that is authorized to try other non-military solutions to amp up the pressure on Russia so they'll crumble sooner.

I'm sure there must be constant efforts in this direction, but its frustrating to watch and not know.

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Back in the “mid 70s”. When, when some auto manufacturers were starting to install seat belt switch systems that would prevent starting the vehicle if the seat belt wasn’t assembled to complete the circuit, people would just splice the necessary wires in a loop to ensure starting. You could probably do the same. No system can be “Idiot-proofed” because idiots are so ingenious!. What humans can create, other humans can defeat!.

There is also the infamous Raccoon Breathalyzer hack....

*****

which is sadly a UL.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/navy-raccoon-breathalyzer/

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Back to jetpacks....these things are pretty far along:

 

Now that was pretty impressive! Beats the “Bell Flying Jeep” indeed it will be interesting how fast they workout “range anxiety,” non explosive fuel, etc. it could definitely work for assaulting s static line, etc.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, riptides said:

So you have autonomous jet packs that carry supplies and lethal stuff. Or you drop them in at pre-determined points.

Hundreds of these provide for instant heartburn in your rear areas. They take mines and fortifications out of the attack calculations.

It's mobile infantry...in a whole new dimension of warfare.

And the 1st prize goes to …… Robert Heinlein again!

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Sorry, I screwed up my editing of the quote. Bottom line is that the number of Ukrainian military in a support role to the number in a combat role, is quite a good ratio. In the U.S. Military it’s (or used to be) a minimum of 10:1 support to combatant.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Bearstronaut said:

I guess Heinlein was pretty prescient when he came up with the mobile infantry concept.

Little item of interest; when I first read “Starship Troopers” in the mid-1970s, i was amazed at how much of the training and organization of the “MI” seemed like the training and general Chains of Command seemed just like the U.S.M.C. As it turns out, RH was a former Naval Officer, so that was probably what he used as his model for the MI. His second blockbuster novel in the 1960s, “Stranger in a Strange Land” (Grok) was the exact opposite, and actually became the “Bible” for America’s counter-culture. Do you grok Hippies?

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Main advantage of jet packs is likely size (and possibly speed).  They are a lot smaller than this vehicle and pretty quick.  But why not have both and use this for lifting equipment and supplies?  This whole thing is basically a vertical flanking like air assault or airborne but distributed.

It would also work just as well for ship to shore as it would for getting over a minefield.

[kimbosbread]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It would also work just as well for ship to shore as it would for getting over a minefield.

It also works for deploying a lot small loitering munitions another 10Km further forward, giving them another 10 minutes of flight time.

Edited December 19, 2023 by kimbosbread

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Bottom line is that the number of Ukrainian military in a support role to the number in a combat role, is quite a good ratio. In the U.S. Military it’s (or used to be) a minimum of 10:1 support to combatant.

That's such a "teeth" - and political - way of looking at things

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

Jet packs don't need to use actual jets

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Jetpack

Yeah, so all they need to do is target your turbofans and the uncontained blade failure will take your head off.

That would be ok for crossing a minefield at low altitude if you have full cover, but if anybody's able to take shots at you, it could go very badly.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Hit mainstream about an hour ago:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-s-military-asks-for-additional-450-000-people-to-be-mobilized-zelenskyy-1.6693711

Thanks.  Doesn't answer my question, though.  Still unclear if this number is intended to replace some quantity of existing soldiers or if he's hoping to have this on top of the current Armed Forces authorized strength.  My guess it is somewhere inbetween.  Looks like he made these comment without context, so we'll have to wait to see what it comes out as.

Steve

[JonS]

50 minutes ago, chrisl said:

but if anybody's able to take shots at you, it could go very badly.

Unlike, say, flying across a minefield with a backpack full of Jet A1 and a big hot thermal signature?

Edited December 20, 2023 by JonS

[chrisl]

11 minutes ago, JonS said:

Unlike, say, flying across a minefield with a backpack full of Jet A1 and a big hot thermal signature?

That's not high on my bucket list, either.

[JonS]

lol - fair.

[chrisl]

Both of those jetpack-y things are going to be big, loud, noisy, and hot enough that they're really more for getting people into a spot where there's little or no opposition, but there's some sort of difficult barrier (river, cliff, minefield, etc.) and you need to get people over there to rig a bridgehead of some form.  If you try to make an army of flying monkeys with them, it's not going to go well.

Even with turbofans, which are way more efficient than jets, the available flight time is going t be pretty limited if it's hauling a full grown person with full kit.  When you're doing stuff that leaves the ground and has to stay off the ground, mass (the kg kind, not the mongol hordes kind) drives everything.

[The_Capt]

47 minutes ago, JonS said:

Unlike, say, flying across a minefield with a backpack full of Jet A1 and a big hot thermal signature?

As opposed to being in a vehicle full of diesel and a big hot thermal signature?  We saw how well that worked out on both sides.  Take my chances with the jet pack…at least you get one cool ride.

Trick will be setting pre-conditions and to keep the jump short.  Like 60 seconds.  Do it at night and with smoke and you might stand a chance of getting a recon force across.  

But hey if someone else has a better idea…mutant badgers?  Water cannon?  

[paxromana]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

But hey if someone else has a better idea…mutant badgers?  Water cannon?  

Teenage Mutant Ninja ... Badgers!

Bring 'em on I say!

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As opposed to being in a vehicle full of diesel and a big hot thermal signature?  We saw how well that worked out on both sides.  Take my chances with the jet pack…at least you get one cool ride.

Trick will be setting pre-conditions and to keep the jump short.  Like 60 seconds.  Do it at night and with smoke and you might stand a chance of getting a recon force across.  

But hey if someone else has a better idea…mutant badgers?  Water cannon?  

If you're big and hot, night and smoke aren't going to do anything for you against somebody with thermal imaging. 

 

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, chrisl said:

If you're big and hot, night and smoke aren't going to do anything for you against somebody with thermal imaging. 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK224565/#:~:text=Brass flakes are used in,those are not in use.

https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/products/protection-systems/protection-systems-land/smoke-protection-systems

Been around for decades.  They knew TI would be a problem back in the Cold War.  Fog messes with it too.  Still would have to push their UAS back.  For a quick crossing one could probably take the risk.  Vehicles are also damn hot but much slower.   After the steady stream of troops getting roasted in their own vehicles, I would take my chances in the air.

Again, would need to be a multi-platform system.  And UGVs, need those.  Light and fast.

Edit:  doing some quick math.  Specs for jet packs say top speed of 85 mph.  Rounded that down a bit to account for extra weight and nighttime - to about 30 m/s.  So in 60 sec we are taking 1800m.

From experience it takes an armoured breaching team about 3-5 minutes to try and breach a 500m minefield - assuming no problems.  But at these densities, expect problems.

Edited December 20, 2023 by The_Capt

[chris talpas]

25 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Teenage Mutant Ninja ... Badgers!

Bring 'em on I say!

Aren’t those critters called Wolverines?

Hmmm

swarms of cyber implanted mind controlled wolverines-  zerglings

Edited December 20, 2023 by chris talpas
Additional thoughts

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

Both of those jetpack-y things are going to be big, loud, noisy, and hot enough that they're really more for getting people into a spot where there's little or no opposition, but there's some sort of difficult barrier (river, cliff, minefield, etc.) and you need to get people over there to rig a bridgehead of some form.  If you try to make an army of flying monkeys with them, it's not going to go well.

See my previous post about proposed tactical use.  It emphasizes, very heavily, the area being scrubbed clean to the greatest extent possible.  Built in is the notion that if it's too hot you should know before you fly, scrubbing the mission if it can't be corrected.

This is the sort of thing the current breaching concept does NOT do.  You pop a bunch of smoke and artillery, then you get into the minefield.  You're committed at that point.  Scrubbing means backing up and risking mines if you have to get around disabled vehicles.  Which, as we saw, is something that can be counted on.

With this jump/drone hop thing the expectations for scrubbing the other side are more modest.  You don't have to keep a couple of hundred meters of path free from interference for dozens of minutes.  You don't have to have multiple breach vehicles in case the first one gets unlucky and is disabled.

So on and so forth.

Steve

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

See my previous post about proposed tactical use.  It emphasizes, very heavily, the area being scrubbed clean to the greatest extent possible.  Built in is the notion that if it's too hot you should know before you fly, scrubbing the mission if it can't be corrected.

This is the sort of thing the current breaching concept does NOT do.  You pop a bunch of smoke and artillery, then you get into the minefield.  You're committed at that point.  Scrubbing means backing up and risking mines if you have to get around disabled vehicles.  Which, as we saw, is something that can be counted on.

With this jump/drone hop thing the expectations for scrubbing the other side are more modest.  You don't have to keep a couple of hundred meters of path free from interference for dozens of minutes.  You don't have to have multiple breach vehicles in case the first one gets unlucky and is disabled.

So on and so forth.

Steve

The perfect way to assault the the Russian defensive line is for the U.S. Air Force to join this war, establish complete air supremacy, and then literarily obliterate a section of Russian line tens of kilometers wide. Oh, and every single Russian supply vehicle in the entire land bridge, and every actual bridge that goes over something more than ankle deep.

Anything less than that is going to be an extremely high risk maneuver for the units involved. We are at least pontificating that this plan has a more plausible chance of working than anything else anyone has thought of. Notice I said plausible, not guaranteed. Conveniently the new game would be almost perfectly suited to work this plan a little bit, if it looks anything like I think it does. I have no non-public information whatsoever. If Charles doesn't want to code the jet packs you could just put the deployment zone for the air assault troops on the hostile side of the mine fields, and make some assumptions about casualties during the fly in. 

And yes I realize the risk of the U.S. Air Force plan is WW3.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@24hoursukrainenew/post/C1DAwwFLmOr

 

True example for many people. This is how those heroes should be treated..

 

A feel good video, you need one of those now and again.

Edited December 20, 2023 by dan/california