How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

34 minutes ago, Fernando said:

2 + 2 equals 22

Yep facts as it suits you. $22000 -$4000 she is $18000 better off. In Dutch it is called aftrekken (subtraction) aka masturbation. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Fernando said:

2 + 2 equals 22

Nothing surprising. This is called concatenation. This thing has been spoiling the mood of programmers from all over the world for a long time. 

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What is left of 'The West' anyway? Discussing about whether childeren have the right to chose their gender and emptying our churches, so they can be turned into mosques. And as one of the commentators so rightly put it, only interested in our wallet and the size of our car. We're in a Cold War, a collision of systems and ideals. What happens in the Middle East is peanuts compared to the war in the East. Part of Vlad's masterplan to divide and conquer. And it works, because of our stupidity and lack of focus.

I get that you might be having a bad day but there is so much unwarranted angst in this post: absolutely nobody in “The West” argues that children should have the right to choose their gender.  No-one is emptying our churches (though there are many fewer people heading in) and less than nobody is “emptying churches so they can be turned into mosques”.

Reconsider the merits of whatever media source has told you these things.  You rightly identify that we are in a collision of systems but make no mistake: it is the enemies of our Western system who promote misinformation such as what you posted above in order to foster the very division you warn against.   Seeing through that, being less angry about things that aren’t happening and therefore being a part of a secure Western system is the best way to maintain focus and win. 

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What is left of 'The West' anyway? Discussing about whether childeren have the right to chose their gender and emptying our churches, so they can be turned into mosques.

Let's not go there. You have to realize though that this is how Putin keeps defining the West in his propaganda.

Edit: ... and so complaining about this sounds a bit off when at the same time you warn that the West hasn't realized what's at stake.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Butschi

[cesmonkey]

 

[The_Capt]

35 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Let's not go there. You have to realize though that this is how Putin keeps defining the West in his propaganda.

And “raccoon stealing”…let’s not forget that.  As if raccoons have no agency of their own!  

Emptying our raccoon churches and filling them with ambiguously self-identifying marmots…wake up sheeple!

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Emptying our raccoon churches

I agree it is true. We are creating a void and people with radical ideas will fill it. Meditating is cool praying the rosary is not. Basically very similar but young people experiment with other ideas. Religions can inspire people to commit absurdities it is a danger. Like the Stalingrad movie, Gott mit uns or in God we trust are popular slogans.

 

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I agree it is true. We are creating a void and people with radical ideas will fill it. Meditating is cool praying the rosary is not. Basically very similar but young people experiment with other ideas. Religions can inspire people to commit absurdities it is a danger. Like the Stalingrad movie, Gott mit uns or in God we trust are popular slogans.

 

I was going for a more mocking angle to be honest.  Since the dawn of time people - usually old people - have somehow hooked whatever social ills they see onto a crisis.  “Moral decline”, “Hippies”, “Homosexuality”, “Women who can vote”!

Human social systems are naturally a mix of progressiveness and conservatism.  And rarely, if ever, does a war start based solely on whatever social issue means most to you.  We did not start wars because “the church” since the Crusades, possibly the Middle Ages - and even then there was a whole lotta money and power at play.  We sure as hell have never started a war over any of the rest of “damn kids these days” stuff.

The West is not going to fall over the obsolescence of religion or LGBTQ issues, or whatever you are worried about.  Why?  Because it didn’t last time with “women voting”, “civil rights” and “rock and/or roll”.  In fact since those End Times, the West has continued it rise in power and wealth.  

If anything does destroy the West it will be power hungry egomaniacs that leverage all that social angst into something really dangerous.  They aren’t doing it because they really care about our church/mosque/raccoon ratios - they are doing it to take more power.  The dismantling of democracy, social divisions that turn cancerous, deep corruption and greed- this is how empires die.  Not because we decide to stop going to freakin church and start this strange new thing called “meditation”.  

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And “raccoon stealing”…let’s not forget that.  As if raccoons have no agency of their own!  

Emptying our raccoon churches and filling them with ambiguously self-identifying marmots…wake up sheeple!

Coypus in disguise,  the danged varmints! 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Part of Vlad's masterplan to divide and conquer. 

To paraphrase Eddie Izzard,  again,  for I think the third time is this thread :

"If there is a plan, his plan is very similar to someone not having a plan." 

Plus Eddie being transgender is very apropos

Edited October 30, 2023 by Kinophile

[Eddy]

Apologies if this has already been linked but if your life is not complete without a report from RUSI on UGS's, then it is now

Uncrewed Ground Systems: Organisational and Tactical Realities for Integration | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

and the pdf is here:

Uncrewed Ground Systems: Organisational and Tactical Realities for Integration (rusi.org)

Chapters:

1. What are UGS?
2. What are the purported benefits of UGS?
3. What are the potential uses of UGS?
4. Considerations for UGS support to light manoeuvre forces
5. How do UGS get to, and stay in, the fight?
6. How to make sure soldiers use them

I know this OT but we have occasionally touched on UGS on this thread so just thought I'd link it.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Eddy

[chuckdyke]

59 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We did not start wars because “the church” since the Crusades,

The English Civil War, in Germany thirty-year war and the Dutch and the Spanish eighty-year war. All offshoots from the reformation. Napoleon put an end to it by taking the crown out of the hands of the pope and crowning himself. Religious wars were still going strong till the end of the eighteenth century. Then we had Northern Ireland. 

[The_Capt]

Just now, chuckdyke said:

The English Civil War, in Germany thirty-year war and the Dutch and the Spanish eighty-year war. All offshoots from the reformation. Napoleon put an end to it by taking the crown out of the hands of the pope and crowning himself. Religious wars were still going strong till the end of the eighteenth century. Then we had Northern Ireland. 

Right, knew someone was going to pitch those.  So take a hard look at those wars and the role religion really played:

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Protestantism/Events-under-Charles-I

Religion while central, was employed as a wedge or leverage mechanism.  Not the primary cause of the war itself, which was almost always about power balance between rulers.  Religion was used to light fires under masses to convince them to support one side over the other, not a true objectives of war.  There are exceptions, such as the Muslim expansions of the Caliphate era in the 7th century, but cynically these were also about power and resources.

Religion tends to be flavoring and energized to make wars happen harder and not core reasons.  Even the Crusades have been re-examined: 

" Crusaders did not only fight for control of the Holy Land; they also worked to secure the Church’s power in Europe. Like the wars against the Muslims, these conflicts were promoted by various popes in Christ’s name and led by crusaders who took vows and received special privileges and indulgences. The “enemies” of the Church in Europe included people who were not Christians. It also included Christians who were labeled heretics, that is, people who challenged the official teachings of the Church or who questioned the pope’s power and authority."

https://dcc.newberry.org/?p=14390

So I call BS on most of this to be honest.  Northern Ireland:

"However, this Northern Irish conflict was not divided on theological lines but instead on those of class and politics, as those who had been so long oppressed were demanding change, equality and freedom. This paper explores the variety of factors which truly influenced the conflict in Northern Ireland and led to the Troubles, shaping what Northern Ireland is today."

https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1241&context=younghistorians

We can do this all day. Bin Laden wasn't doing it because God told him to.  He was looking for some sort of weird Caliphate 2.0 that would put him in power so he could marry Whitney Houston: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUS360594553620120214 

In reality macro-social constructs have rarely (if ever) gone to war over a social issue such as religion.  They have definitely used it and the impulse of faith is incredibly powerful, but do not believe for a second that secular power dynamics, along with good old fashion human failings such as jealousy, greed and fear, are far more prevalent in causes for war.  A really interesting question is whether or not humanity would be better or worse off without religion.

Now in micro-social context, especially pre-history, you might have a workable angle here.   Smaller groups of people and far deeper spiritual integration into society.   

[chuckdyke]

Urban 2 introduced indulgences to recruit for the crusades. Participate and you are forgiven for all the pilfering and killing. Naturally corruption is very seductive. Indulgences were challenged during the reformation. European wars and politics are unthinkable without the religions. Most believers are normal decent people but it certainly inspires the crooks.

[Tux]

Perhaps the distinction to be drawn between The_Capt’s and chuckdyke’s perceptions here is that between “why most wars are fought” and “what most people fight for”.

It seems clear that religion (and, latterly nationalism) has more influence on a widespread micro-social basis than secular government structures have ever had.  It is therefore the perfect tool for converting a ruling elite’s micro-social incentive to war into a macro-social narrative which auto-resolves into new and powerful micro-social incentives for almost everyone else.

People fight for what they believe they are fighting for.  The reality of the cause and whether it is related to the original reason for the war doesn’t come into it.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Tux

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Tux said:

Perhaps the distinction to be drawn between The_Capt’s and chuckdyke’s perceptions here is that between “why most wars are fought” and “what most people fight for”.

"What most people think they are fighting for"  Urban 2 was trying to 1) push back Muslim/Arab encroachment and 2) solidify power in Europe.  These are not high morale or righteous objectives.  God did not will it, we did.  And then used God as cover to get thousands to go die somewhere to try and achieve political -not ideological- aims.  History is rife with this dynamic.  The Church's use of religion to commit genocide is historical fact, but don't dress it up as anything but a political ploy.

Same mechanism is happening in Russia right now.  But instead of "God", insert whatever Putin is selling.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

European wars and politics are unthinkable without the religions.

Sure they are.  I have the entire 20th century to prove it.  Separation of church and state was well on its way by the end of the 19th century.  It is an incredible stretch to see religion paying a central political role in WW1 and WW2, let alone the Cold War.  Was it employed to keep the masses fighting?  Sure.  So was alcohol and nationalism. 

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Same mechanism is happening in Russia right now.  But instead of "God", insert whatever Putin is selling.

Indeed Putin's "Orthodox Revival"(tm) is a big part of what he is selling, and is an even more cynical case of coopting religion for political purposes than most of the historical cases. The Post Soviet elite that runs Russia is utterly secular, but they realize that vodka helps keep part of their society controllable, and religion helps with another bit. They are perfectly willing to push both, as long as they are the ones in mansions outside of Moscow with control of Russia's mineral wealth.

Edit: crossposted with The_Capt.

Edited October 30, 2023 by dan/california

[Tux]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

"What most people think they are fighting for"  Urban 2 was trying to 1) push back Muslim/Arab encroachment and 2) solidify power in Europe.  These are not high morale or righteous objectives.  God did not will it, we did.  And then used God as cover to get thousands to go die somewhere to try and achieve political -not ideological- aims.  History is rife with this dynamic.  The Church's use of religion to commit genocide is historical fact, but don't dress it up as anything but a political ploy.

Same mechanism is happening in Russia right now.  But instead of "God", insert whatever Putin is selling.

I agree (hence the admittedly late edit to my previous post), with perhaps two minor tweaks:

1.  There is no meaningful difference between what people fight for and what people think they are fighting for.  Ask them both questions and see if you get a different response.  Perhaps we’re just getting tangled in semantics here but, to me, what a person fights for is what they think/believe they are fighting for, by definition.  Why the war is actually being fought at all is the different question.

2.  Religion is still very much part of what Putin is selling the Russian people at the moment. Not as much as it would have been 200 years ago but it’s still there.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Tux
Cross-posted with dan.

[dan/california]

I have just had a small revelation about Russian demographic decline. In a strange short to medium term way it sort of works for Moscows current excuse for a regime. Because the population is shrinking instead of growing it allows Moscow to avoid the problem of the pie getting spread thinner every generation. Saudi Arabia is the example I have in mind, they certainly have a lot of oil money, but it doesn't go nearly as far towards buying social stability when the population has increased by a factor of five in fifty years, or something like that. It depends on what estimate you believe for 1950. And of course the number of "royal" princes has grown even faster.

[danfrodo]

What's interesting is that those that are constantly harping about democracy and freedom being destroyed are the ones actually destroying democracy and freedom, at least in the US.  In 2020 (and coming in 2024) we faced the end of american democracy.  A giant mob of these brainless idiots even attacked and captured the US capital!  First time in over 200 years for that!  And what is said of this on the right?  "oh, was a little dustup!".  And these same people generally think religion should be more in charge in the US, while at the same time constantly harping about the constitution which very clearly says "hell no" to that.  

The enemy of democracy is ignorance and demogogery.  Fox news in the US being the primary source of this.  Fox news viewers have no idea what's actually happening.  It's news & infotainment for people that literally can't handle the truth.  They think the 2020 election was stolen, yet have no evidence other than "some black people were seen.."  (do they even know that Fox CHOSE to settle out of court and pay out ~$750M in a civil suit because of their election lies??)   They think climate change is a hoax despite their own thermometers.  They think Trump didn't didn't do anything wrong while the rest of us have actually seen the indictments and the mountains of damning evidence.  They think Jan 6 was everything except what it actually was -- a mob induced by Trump to try to overthrow the duly elected govt of the US -- it was an atttemped coup.

So western society is not being destroyed by gays or transgenders or atheists.  It's being destroyed by ignorant, nationalist, rage-filled fools who listen to rightwing propaganda to the point where they can't even stitch two thoughts together about reality yet think they are saving america while actively trying to destroy it, through their utter stupidity.

Edited October 30, 2023 by danfrodo

[Fernando]

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

The English Civil War, in Germany thirty-year war and the Dutch and the Spanish eighty-year war. All offshoots from the reformation. Napoleon put an end to it by taking the crown out of the hands of the pope and crowning himself. Religious wars were still going strong till the end of the eighteenth century. Then we had Northern Ireland. 

The Treaty of Westphalia of 1648 is considered the end of the last war of religion in Europe. And it wasn't entirely a war of religion either once the main European powers entered the war. For example, France, a Catholic country ruled successively by two Catholic cardinals (Richelieu and Mazarin) fought alongside its Protestant allies against the Catholic Habsburgs (Spain and Austria).

By the way, Spain ended the 12-year truce with the United Provinces in 1621, not for reasons of religion. There was a lot of debate about it in the Council of State. Finally it was decided that, since it was inevitable that there would be a war, it was preferable that it be fought in Flanders (as the Spanish colloquially called that territory) than in northern Italy (The King of Spain was Duke of Milan), which was considered a more valuable possession.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Fernando

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/30/mcconnell-goes-all-out-as-ukraine-fight-fractures-gop-00123966

Mitch McConnell is abandoning his typically cautious style when it comes to aiding Ukraine, shrugging off potshots at his leadership and expending political capital for the embattled country despite a painful rift in the party.

 

For all of his vast array of flaws, McConnell has gone all in on the right side this time.

[Tenses]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

What's interesting is that those that are constantly harping about democracy and freedom being destroyed are the ones actually destroying democracy and freedom, at least in the US.  In 2020 (and coming in 2024) we faced the end of american democracy.  A giant mob of these brainless idiots even attacked and captured the US capital!  First time in over 200 years for that!  And what is said of this on the right?  "oh, was a little dustup!".  And these same people generally think religion should be more in charge in the US, while at the same time constantly harping about the constitution which very clearly says "hell no" to that.  

The enemy of democracy is ignorance and demogogery.  Fox news in the US being the primary source of this.  Fox news viewers have no idea what's actually happening.  It's news & infotainment for people that literally can't handle the truth.  They think the 2020 election was stolen, yet have no evidence other than "some black people were seen.."  (do they even know that Fox CHOSE to settle out of court and pay out ~$750M in a civil suit because of their election lies??)   They think climate change is a hoax despite their own thermometers.  They think Trump didn't didn't do anything wrong while the rest of us have actually seen the indictments and the mountains of damning evidence.  They think Jan 6 was everything except what it actually was -- a mob induced by Trump to try to overthrow the duly elected govt of the US -- it was an atttemped coup.

So western society is not being destroyed by gays or transgenders or atheists.  It's being destroyed by ignorant, nationalist, rage-filled fools who listen to rightwing propaganda to the point where they can't even stitch two thoughts together about reality yet think they are saving america while actively trying to destroy it, through their utter stupidity.

Just to cheer you up, USA are not alone. In Europe every single country has pretty much the same problem on a different scale. Above film about mathematics basics is just a presentation of the tip of the iceberg.

This is a big, flashing red alarm to start treating weaponization of information seriously. Really, freedom of speech is NOT freedom of lies and manipulation. Either we act and demand scientific process of proving "facts" or we will drown in b*******.

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, Eddy said:

Chapters:

1. What are UGS?
2. What are the purported benefits of UGS?
3. What are the potential uses of UGS?
4. Considerations for UGS support to light manoeuvre forces
5. How do UGS get to, and stay in, the fight?
6. How to make sure soldiers use them

We’ve got to find out what people want from UGS, how they relate to them, what sort of image they have for them. For example, do people want UGS that can be fitted nasally?