How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/07/joe-biden-huge-final-ukraine-aid-package/

Joe Biden is considering a “one-and-done” spending bill to fund the war in Ukraine until the next presidential election in an attempt to overcome an impasse with Republicans, The Telegraph understands.

The White House is drawing up plans to ask Congress to release its largest funding package ever for weapons and humanitarian aid, amid concern continued rows over spending could damage the president in next year’s election.

 

This definitely the best news I have heard this week, maybe this month. Nowhere near done, but at least it is proof the administration is thinking straight.

[cesmonkey]

WarGonzo reports Ukraine making a bit of progress in the south:
https://t.me/wargonzo/15556
 

Quote

In the Zaporozhye direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to expand the bridgehead in the main attack zone. With artillery support, they advance towards Kopani. There is progress. Northeast and southeast of this village is the fortified defense line of the Russian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian command sets the task of stopping the threat of attacks on the flank west of the village of Rabotino and reaching the rear of the Russian fortified area in Nesteryanka. After powerful artillery shelling, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack on the outskirts of Novprokopovka and on the approaches to Verbovoy. No success here.

 

[Yet]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

This definitely the best news I have heard this week, maybe this month. Nowhere near done, but at least it is proof the administration is thinking straight.

one-and-done as in.. this is the last you get, good luck. or as in this is all you would ever need to surely achieve all goals?

What would such a package have to consist?

[Seedorf81]

I do not want to be banned for mentioning Israel, but I believe that my next question (which is in fact unrelated to the recent escalation) is on-topic.

How come that the Israeli airforce can attack "enemy territory" (Syria, Lebanon, Gaza) with practically no losses, while in Ukraine any plane that shows up above contested area's risks being shot down immediately?

Are there Israeli airforce - tactics that the Ukranians don't know of, for instance?

Are the air-defense capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah so lousy?

What am I missing?

 

 

[Haiduk]

Russians still advance in grey zone toward Makiivka on Lyman direction

Though, their advance is not parade march. 66th mech.brigade claims, only their ATGM company hit 25 tanks for 4 days. I can't verify this, but two days ago there were two photosets of dozen destroyed and abandoned armor on this direction, so even though 25 is exaggregation, that it not large. 

New video from this direction - Russian T-90A (M?) attacks UKR position. At 0:09 probably first ATGM hit the tank, but likely ERA activated. Crew actively uses black smoke and "Shtora" ATGM countermeasure system (this white expolsion in the air) and conducts fire at UKR position, but looks like this hadn't effect against Stugna-P or TOW and ememy tank was coocked off

  

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Damn mosquitos...

 

[TheVulture]

42 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

I do not want to be banned for mentioning Israel, but I believe that my next question (which is in fact unrelated to the recent escalation) is on-topic.

How come that the Israeli airforce can attack "enemy territory" (Syria, Lebanon, Gaza) with practically no losses, while in Ukraine any plane that shows up above contested area's risks being shot down immediately?

Are there Israeli airforce - tactics that the Ukranians don't know of, for instance?

Are the air-defense capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah so lousy?

What am I missing?

 

 

In Ukraine, both sides have modern integrated air defence systems,  with MANPADS, short range air defences, and longer range systems all the way up to patriot / s-300 / s-400 systems with huge ranges over 100km. They have the operational depth to locate these systems 10s of kms from the front line to help protect and conceal them. They have integrated radar systems, an air force with interceptors, and (to an unknown degree) at least potential access to airborne and space based intelligence gathering systems.

In Israel, one of the sides has this (more or less), while hamas has no air defences beyond whatever manpads they've managed to smuggle in past the Israeli and Egyptian blockades, and a territory that is a few km wide at its widest point, and an opponent that started from a position of such military superiority for decades than any attempt to build a meaningful air defence system (in their tiny territory) would be detected and destroyed long before it was even marginally effective - assuming they could even find a route to get a significant system in theatre without it being intercepted. Hard to smuggle an s-300 through a small cross-border tunnel...

Edited October 8, 2023 by TheVulture

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It owes you support because it is the right thing to do.  Ukraine is an independent nation that was minding its own business when Russia decided to invade and murder.  That is why we support Ukraine.

It's all fairytales. There are no "friendship" between countries, there are no "we support you to defend democracy and values". Only economical and geopolitical interests exist and interests of current moment. Lucky for us our interests just coincided with current intersts of West. Else we would be repeat destiny of Georgia in 2008. And maybe would be blamed for initiating the war like Georgia. 

Condoleezza Rice, who wrote that speech for G.Bush in 1991 since 15 years recognized that was mistake. She explained US administration feared that collapse of USSR and rising of national movements will turn USSR in new Yugoslavia. Well, further history showed, that main source of all conflicts on former USSR terrritory was Russia (except N.Karabakh, but even there Russia supported Armenia), not "evil ethnic nationalists". This also showed very bad understanding of things on post-Soviet space for further strategical planning. Like and assesment of Kyiv falling for 48-72 hours.

About Budapesht memorandum. You can read about heavy pressure of G.Bush administration on UKR government in 1991-93. USA long time rejected to recognize Ukrainian independence (first contacts about this were as far as in May 1991, before 24th of August) and only after GKChP coup they some changed own mind, but as condition put in ultimative form that Ukraine must hand over own nuclear arsenal to Russia. There were very sharp tensions, because Leonid Kravchuk, first president of Ukraine didn't want sign anything without firm guarantees, but US administration just demanded to disarm. Next Clinton admininistration provide more soft policy and could find a not enough expencive keys to new president Kuchma, who on backgroupd of economical collapse easily agreed to sign all for symbolic financial aid and offering of membership in some organisations. Very easy to take advantage of weakness of opponent to force disarm it in exchange of useless paper and then to say "Who care? It's your guilt". Maybe our too. But US initiated this, seeing "big threat for the world" in Ukraine 

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You want to forget gross political corruption in defence - that is still happening according to some - that very likely would have seen all those MANPADs sold off to a highest bidder, many in those VEOs we faced for 20 years?  Are we to honestly believe that you are saying with a straight face that Ukraine would have held onto all that weaponry for a rainy day 20-30 years later?

And? How much of our stored weaponary was sold to bad guys by our corrupted officials? Ah... "Kolchugas" to Iraq, where its weren't found at all. Like and bacteriological weapon, which was a reason for 2003 invasion. 

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

I do not want to be banned for mentioning Israel, but I believe that my next question (which is in fact unrelated to the recent escalation) is on-topic.

How come that the Israeli airforce can attack "enemy territory" (Syria, Lebanon, Gaza) with practically no losses, while in Ukraine any plane that shows up above contested area's risks being shot down immediately?

Are there Israeli airforce - tactics that the Ukranians don't know of, for instance?

Are the air-defense capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah so lousy?

What am I missing?

 

 

Israel uses guided long range weapon, Hamas and Hezblla have only AA-guns and some MANPADS. The same now in Ukraine - Russians launched manufacturing of gliding kits for dumb bombs, turning them into JDAM-ER analogs, so Russian aviation now after almost 1,5 years of pause now again have opportunity to struck our forces and objects with bombs and remain unreachable for our AD. I think our Patriots defend Kyiv and some logistic centers (or airfields) in western part of country and command doesn't want to risk moving them to cover frontline. We had two examples of Patriot usage against Russian aviation - an ambush, when over Russian territory ere shot down several planes and EW helicopters and one Su-35 was downed over the sea. But since no more such successes.   

[Haiduk]

Evil Axis became more strong

Dramatic Increase in DPRK-Russia Border Rail Traffic After Kim-Putin Summit

https://beyondparallel.csis.org/dramatic-increase-in-dprk-russia-border-rail-traffic-after-kim-putin-summit/

 

• Developments elsewhere at the Tumangang Rail Facility indicate that North Korea is not simply planning to resume border traffic to pre-Covid-19 levels, but further expand the facility’s capacity at this border crossing.  
• Military transfers between the two countries would violate multiple UN Security Council resolutions and be subject to additional sanctions by the United States and its allies.  

In the aftermath of the Kim-Putin summit, satellite images as of October 5, 2023, captured a dramatic and unprecedented level of freight railcar traffic at North Korea’s Tumangang Rail Facility located on the North Korea-Russia border. In light of a U.S. government official’s statement yesterday that North Korea has begun transferring artillery to Russia, it is probable that these shipments are to support Russia in its war with Ukraine.¹ 

[Haiduk]

YPR-765 of 3rd assault brigade was hit twice (likely RPG) during moving. The squad, having two wounded disembarking and takes defensive position near own APC under fire. Second YPR-765 drives near and soldier asks driver that he bring them onboard, but the driver says vehicle is full, so he will drive further to disembark infantry. The squad still taking cover under fire, theit APC starts to burn. Soldiers throw smoke grenades with  violete smoke to mark own place for evacuation group and call them by radio

 

 

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's all fairytales. There are no "friendship" between countries, there are no "we support you to defend democracy and values". Only economical and geopolitical interests exist and interests of current moment. Lucky for us our interests just coincided with current intersts of West.

If that were true then why is my country spending an order of magnitude more on support than it ever saw in trade?

https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/ukraine/relations.aspx?lang=eng#

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/campaigns/canadian-military-support-to-ukraine.html#

By your paradigm there is no stark national interest for Canada to spend billions in supporting your country.  Sure Russia is doing dirty but it is a country that we historically do much more trade with than Ukraine: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/canada

https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/exports/canada

We live under the security umbrella of the US and are 9 timezones away.  Beyond diaspora - and last we recognized that relationship it did not work out so well (https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-house-speaker-apologizes-recognition-veteran-who-fought-nazis-2023-09-24/)…why in the hell should we spend that much taxpayers money on Ukraine?  A non-NATO, non-EU, non-5EYES, non-G7 nation that is at war with another nation we historically did about 3-4 times more trade with?

No, I reject your premise as it does not match the facts.  Do nations work toward interest?  Absolutely.  However, those interest are expressed as far more than money and fear - and they should be.  We are in this because we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now.  Where unilateral invasions are in fact against the law.  We built that world to get and stay well,  we also built it because we actually care enough about humanity that we would prefer we don’t destroy ourselves through narrow minded greed.  There is no hard geopolitical or economic reasons for Canada to be spending this amount of money on supporting your nation in this war.  There are some incredibly powerful morale and ethical ones, and as bafflingly ignorant as a we can be at times, those things still matter.

We got rid of AP landmines because they did more harm than good.  Not some weird “hey everyone let’s disarm Ukraine so Russian can maul them later - tee hee”.  Same definitely goes for nukes - sorry but Eastern Europe was a hot mess after the USSR fell and no junior partner still trying to figure which way was up was going to be keeping hands on strategic weapons.  Frankly Ukraine was not that important to anyone’s calculus in the 90s and 00s to put that together - you may recall we kinda had our hands full.  

So I think we are done here.  You want to be a bitter old man dreaming reasons why “everyone screwed you” and why “we all owe you”, I can’t stop you.  But the reality is that our sin in the west was we simply did not care.  We were focused on other things while Russia kept sticking its toes over the line while getting people hooked on cheap energy.  There was no conspiracy, there was neglect.  But Ukraine was and is an independent nation that needs to own it mistakes as well - and there were many.  In the end all that added up to an embolden Russia that leaned in to far too fast…and here we are.

We support Ukraine because we all owe it to each other to ensure that we do not fall back into dictators doing whatever they want to grab power.  We fought two of the largest wars in human history in the last century when we allowed that to happen.  It is bigger than money and geopolitics.  It is bigger than whatever grudges, bias or prejudice you bring onto this.  This is about global order and the right thing to do.

[The_Capt]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The above is an example of what I previously deemed acceptably on topic for this thread as it involves Ukraine.

I'm scratching my head even understanding what the point of this obvious campaign is.  From my perspective it comes off as being pro-Ukrainian and anti-Israeli ("white Christians have been getting murdered for 2 years and nobody cares, but a few Jews get killed and it is as if the world is coming to an end").  However, I'm sure that's not it at all.  So what is this supposed to mean?

BTW, I would not be at all surprised if Fox News has put more videos of the fighting in Israel and Gaza than Ukraine.  Definitely not true for BBC and CNN.

Steve

I think it is a fascinating look into the far right info sphere.  They have a very significant Judeo-Christian base that honestly believe that Israel are the chosen people and is central to biblical prophesy (and oddity at the same time next door to rampant anti-Semites).  Israel gets enormous attention and positive support pressure from the Bible Belt base, which are the foundation of the entire right movement in the US.

So Don Don #2 is really just reflecting what that info sphere is putting out there - almost nothing on Ukraine, because Pop Pop likes Russia, and losing its mind over Israel because Jesus said so.

Given Don Jrs track record, this guy could not organize plan if it was a hostage teleprompter held down by gun tape.  So my bet is he is just parroting what he is seeing.  Definitely going to make the next few months interesting as this whole Israeli thing could suck a lot of air out of the room.  US far right thinks Ukraine is “fake news” while Israel is the End Times.

Edited October 8, 2023 by The_Capt

[Letter from Prague]

Isn't there a (significant) part of US far right who care about Israel because "Jews living in their promised land" is one of the requirements for Apocalypse, and that's what they want?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

why in the hell should we spend that much taxpayers money on Ukraine?  A non-NATO, non-EU, non-5EYES, non-G7 nation that is at war with another nation we historically did about 3-4 times more trade with?

I respect Lindsey Graham for his honesty, when he explained why West support Ukraine.

And one usual American, who wrote in twitter almost the same "each of us paid 14$ of our taxes to see how Russian army will be destroyed without any losses of our soldiers"

Big countries or their allinces can smile each other and talk about cooperation for peace, but in real struggle for influence and resources has not gone anyway. And big countries conduct hidden game for this influence and resources. And if in 19th and 20th centuries this achieved mostly by military force, that now much more economical and information levereges to this. I bet US always wanted declining of Russia and China as well as China and Russia want declining of USA. Russia just brutally violated the order of this "big club". Even not because they invaded the large European country, which created many risks (millions of refugees, grain export, nuclear plants security etc), but because Putin jumped directly on the West, choosing Ukraine as "whipping boy" to scare westren elites and trade more appropriate place (on his opinion) of Russia in world order. You can recall demands of Putin before invasion. Most of them were adressed to West and NATO, not to Ukraine. He demanded that NATO turned back to 1997 borders. So, "big dudes" just took advantage to knock Russia down if they in so stupid way gave an occasion to do this. 

It's a luck for us that among large number of western elites was understanding like of Lindsey Graham. So, yes, you support us because "we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now" and you support us as proxie force to weaken Russia in order to their behavior will not be "story of success" for other "big players". Because after Russian defeat western companies hipothetically can get partial or even full control over Russian resourse-mining companies. Because now you investing in own security and keep lives of own soldiers and civilians, which with big probability will not go to defend Taiwan, Israel or Southern Korea if Russia losses. So all talks about "democracy", "values" and "support of independent nation" leave for TV-shows for electorate. We are not against to be western proxies in global fight for influence, because this gives opportunity to defeat our ethernal enemy. We are weapon in your hands. So use it properly and decisively without hesitations 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[akd]

Closer view of T-90M “Disassembly”:

 

[cesmonkey]

24 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Isn't there a (significant) part of US far right who care about Israel because "Jews living in their promised land" is one of the requirements for Apocalypse, and that's what they want?

I think that's true, but to fair to them in characterizing their motives, they want the End Times not principally for the Apocalypse, which they see as inevitable, but for the coming of the Kingdom of Heaven that follows it.

Very likely, this should be taken to the Israel thread and not debated here.

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Closer view of T-90M “Disassembly”:

 

Interesting to see time-lapse. It seemed to me the tank ran over mine by right track. But then I spotted some short horizontal movement behind the tree like a missile.

UPD:

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Likely old video how 47th brigade hit four Russian tanks in one day with FPV drones near "Deer" position south of Robotyne. Now this fortifications more likely under UKR control

 

[cesmonkey]

Russia knows how to milk the conflict in Israel for their own gain:
 

Quote

Russian propagandists are using the tragedy in Israel to produce yet another fake. One of the narratives they throw into the information space is the alleged use by Hamas militants of Western weapons, allegedly sold by Ukraine.

https://t.me/AFUStratCom/20411
 

Quote

Russian propagandists are using the tragedy in Israel to produce yet another fake.

One of the narratives that they throw into the information space is the alleged use by Hamas militants of Western weapons, allegedly sold by Ukraine.

In fact, the video presented as evidence was most likely produced anywhere on the territory of the Russian Federation with the addition of the necessary soundtrack. And the propagandist Solovyov, in his usual manner of lying, refers to a non-existent source that no search engine knows about.

Trust only verified official channels of information. And remember — the terrorist state of Russia, at any cost, seeks to stop the support of Western partners and the provision of weapons, which brings our victory closer. The Russians use the slightest opportunity to sow discord between allies. The unity of the civilized world, which together will stop bloodshed and terrorism, is unshakable.

️We also draw attention to the fact that terrorists from the Russian Federation may be behind the Hamas attack on Israel.

 

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by cesmonkey

[cesmonkey]

 

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I respect Lindsey Graham for his honesty, when he explained why West support Ukraine.

And one usual American, who wrote in twitter almost the same "each of us paid 14$ of our taxes to see how Russian army will be destroyed without any losses of our soldiers"

Big countries or their allinces can smile each other and talk about cooperation for peace, but in real struggle for influence and resources has not gone anyway. And big countries conduct hidden game for this influence and resources. And if in 19th and 20th centuries this achieved mostly by military force, that now much more economical and information levereges to this. I bet US always wanted declining of Russia and China as well as China and Russia want declining of USA. Russia just brutally violated the order of this "big club". Even not because they invaded the large European country, which created many risks (millions of refugees, grain export, nuclear plants security etc), but because Putin jumped directly on the West, choosing Ukraine as "whipping boy" to scare westren elites and trade more appropriate place (on his opinion) of Russia in world order. You can recall demands of Putin before invasion. Most of them were adressed to West and NATO, not to Ukraine. He demanded that NATO turned back to 1997 borders. So, "big dudes" just took advantage to knock Russia down if they in so stupid way gave an occasion to do this. 

It's a luck for us that among large number of western elites was understanding like of Lindsey Graham. So, yes, you support us because "we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now" and you support us as proxie force to weaken Russia in order to their behavior will not be "story of success" for other "big players". Because after Russian defeat western companies hipothetically can get partial or even full control over Russian resourse-mining companies. Because now you investing in own security and keep lives of own soldiers and civilians, which with big probability will not go to defend Taiwan, Israel or Southern Korea if Russia losses. So all talks about "democracy", "values" and "support of independent nation" leave for TV-shows for electorate. We are not against to be western proxies in global fight for influence, because this gives opportunity to defeat our ethernal enemy. We are weapon in your hands. So use it properly and decisively without hesitations 

So first of all, if you are turning to Lindsey Graham for foreign policy advice, you may want to check outside and ensure that the sky in in the right location.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/lindsey-grahams-foreign-policy-advice-donald-trump/572089/

But that is just me.  

Of course we want Russia to get back in the box.  Hell we want them back in the G7 and selling all that cheap gas.  We want the global order back because it was a lot more peaceful and profitable than whatever this is turning into.  We want Putin and enough of his ilk gone, but apparently your position is that we are in this in order to exterminate your "eternal enemy".  Ukraine is not a "weapon in our hands," it is a nation who we are desperately trying to keep above water.  The strategy you are proposing is so bafflingly short-sighted that is borders on self-destructive.  So how many Russians are enough?  What happens if Ukraine doesn't kill enough Russians to satisfy our bloodlust?  Of course when you are done killing Russians we will simply walk away and leave you in the ruins, because all we care about are dead Russians and not the reconstruction of Ukraine.

There is an element of proxy war to this conflict, but it is not one we wanted.  If the objective were to destroy Russia, then we would drag this thing out for decades - that is the argument coming out of the US far right, btw, "this is a forever war where we fight til the last Ukrainian...we should get out now!"  MacGregor pretty much has been saying this from Day 1.  So all talks of "Dead Russians as Strategic Objective" and "Economic Interests - War for Cash" and "Ukraine is a Handgun", you can leave in the far right loonie bins where they belong. 

Finally, if you are telling me that Canada, under a liberal government, is spending over 2 billion, coming up on 10 percent of our annual defence spending, in the defence of your nation because "killing Russians" is our sole national interest, then I think this conversation is pretty much over. 

[Kraft]

I sometimes see the argument about a fringe minority in the Republican Party taking the reigns.

Nobody will oppose Trump when he (just) cancels all aid to Ukraine, his voters want it.

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

All I want for (the real) Thanksgiving, is a River Crossing Assault to break the left flank!

[Haiduk]

Yesterday strike near Dzhankoy in Crimea. Russians claimed they shot down missile(s) - in different TGs their numbers are from 1 to "more than 10" $|%)

Later became knowingly from local chats (but still rumors) UKR S-200 missile hit deployment and training camp of Russian Spetsnaz, which was masked as usual agricultural facility. Reportedly Russian soldiers complied OpSec measures, but in some way their deployment became knowingly to UKR intelligence. As result 21 KIA, 16 WIA. The missile hit their camp, when soldiers gathered to supper. As if a soldier, who told this  left the group for some time and got only shell-shock. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Haiduk