How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Billy Ringo]

If the Russian sub was taken out, it would be the first time a military submarine was destroyed by a hostile adversary since WWII.  This isn't trivial.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Again?

Ps. Starlink claims it was global issue, but... very strange coincidence

If this is already a pattern, then question is how he knows about precise dates of Ukrainian strikes...there seem to be growing, unhealthy mist of suspictions sorrounding Musk contacts with both Russians and Ukrainians.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Beleg85

[Ultradave]

12 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Was it Pathfinders?

No, don't think so. Pathfinders are Army and they also do that job. We had a Pathfinders school at Fort Liberty (nee Bragg). These guys were Air Force and jumped in as a team of 2 or 3 and set up the beacons and smoke pots on the DZ and established contact with the Air Force aircraft. It may be that in my day the Pathfinders did it for Army based Das and LZs and the USAF guys when it was AF transport. It's been a long time. The name has probably changed over the years..

When I had a biopsy the anaesthesiologist was one of those Air Force guys. We got on that subject because he asked about my Typhoid vaccine allergy (which I found out about in the Army). Usual conversation of where did you serve, etc. When he found out I was former 82d, he piped up about the advance team that he used to do. And I thought I was nuts being a paratrooper! Got nothing on those guys.

Dave

[Harmon Rabb]

16 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

If the Russian sub was taken out, it would be the first time a military submarine was destroyed by a hostile adversary since WWII.  This isn't trivial.

I know the AFU has taken out some very juicy targets, including a cruiser that shares the names of Russia's capital city.

But if these reports are accurate this is the first time a Russian sub has been targeted.

Excellent news, should do wonders for morale in the AFU, reinforcing the feeling that no part of the Russian military that's engaged in this war is truly out of reach for the AFU.

[zinz]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

If this is already a pattern, then question is how he knows about precise dates of Ukrainian strikes...there seem to be growing, unhealthy mist of suspictions sorrounding Musk contacts with both Russians and Ukrainians.

Not really surprising. I am very certain they have exact location of every dish connected to the Starlink network. So you know when one is moving out from say Odessa over the sea towards Crimea. Yes Musk can track in real time any military asset that is currently using Starlink. 

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, zinz said:

Not really surprising. I am very certain they have exact location of every dish connected to the Starlink network. So you know when one is moving out from say Odessa over the sea towards Crimea. Yes Musk can track in real time any military asset that is currently using Starlink. 

Then the question arises, does US government has some means to cut this behaviour? It doesn't seem like visits of guys in suits from some agency makes particular impression on him, nor (highly probable) personal phone calls from top officials. He likes it or not, his company is vital military asset now, and if Musk still  switch off his stations or change their power to influence outcome, then it is virtually a sabotage. Isn't something in US law toolbox to curb his messianism a little on this particular issue?

Edited September 13, 2023 by Beleg85

[kimbosbread]

25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Then the question arises, does US government has some means to cut this behaviour?

SpaceX is offering the US government it’s own constellation, “Starshield” if they want to have full control of a similar system.

EDIT: To be clear, I understand why Musk doesn’t want his system used for this sort of attack (Kessler Syndrome), even if I disagree. The US military could offer up it’s satellite guidance tech if it felt like it, so it’s not just on Musk.

Edited September 13, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Kinophile]

43 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I know the AFU has taken out some very juicy targets, including a cruiser that shares the names of Russia's capital city.

But if these reports are accurate this is the first time a Russian sub has been targeted.

Excellent news, should do wonders for morale in the AFU, reinforcing the feeling that no part of the Russian military that's engaged in this war is truly out of reach for the AFU.

And,  because I'm Capt. Smarty Pants,  3rd Armchair Coy,  1114th Backseat Driver Bde,  I predicted and suggested hitting ships in dockyard almost a year a ago. Especially hitting sub shore support facilities. 

Very glad to see this happening. 

[Ales Dvorak]

27 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 Isn't something in US law toolbox to curb his messianism a little on this particular issue?

Wow. Looks like it is only a matter of time before Musk becomes a home grown terrorist.

[sross112]

What is the most damaging part of the Sevastopol strike; the drydocks damaged/clogged up or the loss of the vessels? Not sure what they have for other drydock facilities, but if they are out of service for months doesn't that mean that any other seriously damaged vessels are pretty much knocked out of the game until they are back online? I imagine the ships are a big blow as well, both symbolically and because Russia probably can't replace them anytime in the near future. 

Nicely done strike getting a twofer taking out ships and drydocks in one strike!

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

If this is already a pattern, then question is how he knows about precise dates of Ukrainian strikes...there seem to be growing, unhealthy mist of suspictions sorrounding Musk contacts with both Russians and Ukrainians.

It's not a mist of suspicions....Musk has quite clearly demonstrated that he will take his own interests into account before any national interest. He has actively promoted the idea that Ukraine should surrender territory to Russia and that Taiwan should submit to the PRC. Elon Musk is *not* our friend. 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Wow. Looks like it is only a matter of time before Musk becomes a home grown terrorist.

Yeah, you know, if somebody has breathtaking ambitions to lead humanity into entirely new ways of communciating, safe travelling and space colonization, he perhaps should take into account that his own private business will likely clash with public needs rather often. I have little doubts which should take precedence in normal, rules-driven order. Even in global village people prefer to think of themselves as coherent societies, not some peons whithout agenda.

Nobody forced him to make a fortune specifically in (and of) grey zone between these two spheres, only his own ego and ambitions drove him there.

 

Edited September 13, 2023 by Beleg85

[Jr Buck Private]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Then the question arises, does US government has some means to cut this behaviour? It doesn't seem like visits of guys in suits from some agency makes particular impression on him, nor (highly probable) personal phone calls from top officials. He likes it or not, his company is vital military asset now, and if Musk still  switch off his stations or change their power to influence outcome, then it is virtually a sabotage. Isn't something in US law toolbox to curb his messianism a little on this particular issue?

How about a lengthy IRS audit?   The only thing I could think of for Musk.   Unfortunately he's turning into Dr. Evil.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

If the Russian sub was taken out, it would be the first time a military submarine was destroyed by a hostile adversary since WWII.  This isn't trivial.

Falklands and the Santa Fe?

[Ales Dvorak]

@Beleg85

I like Italic on your public needs.

[cesmonkey]

Rybar posted that they confirmed this other post from Battle Sailor:
https://t.me/BattleSailor13/6676
 

Quote

Preliminary: a combined strike on Sevastopol was carried out using M270 MLRS missiles (ground-based complex). And Storm Shadow (air-to-ground) from the territory of the Nikolaev region. At the same time, there was an attempt to strike a detachment of Black Sea Fleet ships at sea using BECs launched from Odessa.

Against the backdrop of a negative result in the counter-offensive, the Anglo-Saxon pigs decided to significantly increase the stakes, while simultaneously intercepting the Black Sea information initiative about attacks on ports 404... Well, we'll

see how you bitches squeal this night...

 

[Billy Ringo]

4 minutes ago, JonS said:

Falklands and the Santa Fe?

Damaged, captured by the Brits, sunk by a pier, raised and then scuttled.  (Per wiki.)  

Close enough for government Navy work.

 

[Centurian52]

16 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

The issue with all the “conflicts” (not wars, as only Congress is authorized to declare war)

Special military operations?

[Sojourner]

Someone called Musk smart a few pages back, “useful idiot” might be a better term. Interesting read in The Atlantic on how Putin pulls his strings.

https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/09/12/what-russia-got-by-scaring-elon-musk/

Wouldn’t be surprised if Budanov has added him to his list of people to deal with later.

 

[cesmonkey]

Twitter version of Rybar's post on use of MLRS:

 

[Centurian52]

deleted, as interesting as some of these sidebars can be I should probably stop getting so off topic

Edited September 13, 2023 by Centurian52

[Centurian52]

8 hours ago, Sojourner said:

What sanctions doing?

Russia buys sanctioned parts for aircraft through friendly countries

"Journalists analysed customs data and found out that from March 2022 to March 2023, more than US$180 million worth of original spare parts for Boeing and Airbus were imported to Russia."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/12/7419552/

And we've already seen US ICs (e.g. Texas Instruments) in recent built Russian drones. Why aren't Western sanctions on Russia as effective as Swiss sanctions on Ukraine?

Nearly 100 Leopard 1 tanks stored in the open as Switzerland rejects transfer to Ukraine

"Almost 100 Swiss-made Leopard 1 tanks are being stored out in the open in Italy following Switzerland's refusal to allow their transfer to Ukraine, Swiss public broadcasting organization RSI reported on Aug. 26."

https://kyivindependent.com/media-nearly-100-leopard-1-tanks-stored-in-the-open-as-switzerland-rejects-transfer-to-ukraine/

I'm waiting to see pictures of bread lines in Moscow.

 

Are those Leopards among the 135 Leopard 1s that Oryx lists as already pledged?

[croaker69]

15 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Was it Pathfinders?

https://foreverwingman.com/career_fields/1z2x1-combat-control/

When I was in basic in the 90s this was the AFSC. They tried to recruit from every basic class. There was a medic code as well.

https://foreverwingman.com/career_fields/1z1x1-pararescue/

[Harmon Rabb]

Not as exciting as a sub but more news from the Black Sea.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:

@Beleg85

I like Italic on your public needs.

Glad you like it. Not entirely correct use, need to admitt, but more discrete than emboldening or underlining.

 

Interesting issue...several more strikes like this and BSF may run out of places to repair and maintain.