How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

There is one massive flaw in this logic..well maybe two.  First is that SEAD and DEAD will work in modern context.  Western SEAD is designed specifically to take out IADS, big complex systems built in layers.  What we are seeing in Ukraine are highly distributed systems with more weight being carried by what we considered “point AD”.  Problem with “point” is that it becomes “area” if you have enough of them and can link them together.  We already see MANPADs capable of reaching up to 20000 plus feet, what happens when someone sticks a bunch of those on a UAS?

Let me be very clear…western “superiority” as we we know it may be dead as of this war.  The things we are seeing are on a very long trend going back to The Gulf War so this is not some flash in the pan phenomena, it is a building pressure wave.

Second flaw…guns will keep doing all the killing.  Guns are highly effective but they are big and have a very large logistical footprint.  The trend appears to be more and more loitering munitions and very long range systems be they rockets and/or unmanned.  Cheap, low footprint is the trend.

Finally the primary driver for corrosive warfare and Denial primacy does not appear to be weapon systems or capacity, it is C4ISR.  Our western forces have enormous logistical footprints that can be seen from space.  An opponent that can find them first and then hit them via any number of methods is going to be able stop us cold.  

So what?  The entry cost to fight a peer opponent has gone up dramatically.  Stand-off and denial technology has gone into overdrive because (surprise, surprise) adversaries want to blunt western advantage.  I am not convinced we have solved for any of this.  I know we are working on it but old faiths die the hardest.

UAS have nothing on UGV and that shoe will likely drop very soon.  Western powers need to solve for Unmanned, C4ISR and Precision Defence very quickly.  We won’t be learning Mandarin, we will be looking very long high intensity wars that our societies are incredibly poorly prepared for.

I am a broken record on this but the fact the U.S. is going to spend a bunch of money on a new manned helicopter gives me doubts the message is getting thru.

[cesmonkey]

 

[Carolus]

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1700171790285173141

Claimed to be Abrams destined for Ukraine rolling eastward somewhere in Germany. 

Apparently Ukrainian crews will continue their training for a bit until the vehicles are full ready at their destination.

I wonder if the M1028 Canister shell would be of any use in clearing trenches? Probably not, because everything seems to happen at abolute maximum range. On the other hand, sometimes tanks are seen doing extremely close assault (I remember that one video of a Ukrainian T-series driving right over a Russian dugout after shelling it two dozen times).

[Twisk]

When looking at U.S. (Western) implementation of lessons learned I feel that the real places to be watching are the Navy, Airforce, and maybe the Marines. The theoretical peer conflict would be against China and that fight would be heavily geared towards naval combat unless something happened vis-a-vis Vietnam or India. We've likely all seen the Marines attempting to shift away from small Army to something more geared towards modern warfare.

There really isn't a peer conflict that would lead with army forces that I can think of. If, for example, Russia suddenly had no nuclear weapons the war would be measured in months if not weeks and most of that time would be prepositoning forces.

[Teufel]

 

[Teufel]

Airborne on top of airborne, six feet going to be shallow grave. 

[akd]

17 minutes ago, Carolus said:

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1700171790285173141

Claimed to be Abrams destined for Ukraine rolling eastward somewhere in Germany. 

Apparently Ukrainian crews will continue their training for a bit until the vehicles are full ready at their destination.

I wonder if the M1028 Canister shell would be of any use in clearing trenches? Probably not, because everything seems to happen at abolute maximum range. On the other hand, sometimes tanks are seen doing extremely close assault (I remember that one video of a Ukrainian T-series driving right over a Russian dugout after shelling it two dozen times).

I am hopeful that 1.) these have the ability to fire German DM11 (USMC M1A1s do) and 2.) big stocks of such will be provided.

[Teufel]

Black Sea becoming crowded NATO pond - duck, duck, goose.

Hold on, where did I hear about Russian rockets landing in NATO backyard?

Edited September 8, 2023 by Teufel

[cesmonkey]

9 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Black Sea becoming crowded NATO pond - duck, duck, goose.

Hold on, where did I hear about Russian rockets landing in NATO backyard?

I think those Twitter posts are bit over the top.
https://newsweek.ro/actualitate/sea-breeze-233-fortelor-navale-romane-si-cele-ale-sua-fac-exercitii-in-marea-neagra-si-delta
 

Quote

On the part of the United States of America, the quoted source shows that a maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft P-8 Poseidon and EOD divers with boats and specific technique will participate, 

 

[Teufel]

You break it, you pay for it!

 

[Letter from Prague]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So what?  The entry cost to fight a peer opponent has gone up dramatically.  Stand-off and denial technology has gone into overdrive because (surprise, surprise) adversaries want to blunt western advantage.  I am not convinced we have solved for any of this.  I know we are working on it but old faiths die the hardest.

UAS have nothing on UGV and that shoe will likely drop very soon.  Western powers need to solve for Unmanned, C4ISR and Precision Defence very quickly.  We won’t be learning Mandarin, we will be looking very long high intensity wars that our societies are incredibly poorly prepared for.

But does that blade not cut both ways? West has enormous C4ISR capability and enormous stand-off capability. US Navy can probably delivery hundred cruise missiles anywhere in the world in half hour, and more importantly knows where to deliver them. Lot of that capability was wasted on blowing up shacks with some dudes in middle east, but that doesn't mean it's not there.

I guess the most extreme case might be something like we see in Ukraine right now outside of ground fighting - the war of who can outproduce each other on air defense, missiles and suicide drones, all enabled by C4ISR.

As for SEAD/DEAD I think the really tricky part is that we don't really know how well does the prized stealth of NATO planes work in peer conflict. The planes might be literally invisible and untargetable and make everything very very one-sided, or it might actually not help at all, or anything in between. We don't know.

[Teufel]

2 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I think those Twitter posts are bit over the top.
https://newsweek.ro/actualitate/sea-breeze-233-fortelor-navale-romane-si-cele-ale-sua-fac-exercitii-in-marea-neagra-si-delta
 

 

They are of course, exercise of this magnitude and complexity is not planned in 2 weeks. Coincidence but doesn’t take away from NATO confidently squatting in Russian backyard.

[Teufel]

 

[Grey_Fox]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I am a broken record on this but the fact the U.S. is going to spend a bunch of money on a new manned helicopter gives me doubts the message is getting thru.

Attack helicopters with standoff weapons have proven useful and fairly survivable (in that they're still fighting over a year and a half later) thus far in the Ukraine conflict.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Grey_Fox

[Grey_Fox]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Our western forces have enormous logistical footprints that can be seen from space.  An opponent that can find them first and then hit them via any number of methods is going to be able stop us cold.  

This cuts both ways, and thus far the west seems to have the best capabilities. 

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

UAS have nothing on UGV and that shoe will likely drop very soon.  Western powers need to solve for Unmanned, C4ISR and Precision Defence very quickly.  We won’t be learning Mandarin, we will be looking very long high intensity wars that our societies are incredibly poorly prepared for.

I’m very curious about your perspective on this. Why do you think the unmanned ground assets will be a such a big deal? Smaller logistics footprint? Harder to detect?

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Guns are highly effective but they are big and have a very large logistical footprint.  The trend appears to be more and more loitering munitions and very long range systems be they rockets and/or unmanned.  Cheap, low footprint is the trend.

Total agreement on this. The entire system from logisitics to training hours needs to be considered. Part of what makes autonomous drones so much cheaper is training can scale without extra humans.

[Beleg85]

43 minutes ago, Teufel said:

 

Word budut is future; they will be ours. Mistranslation.

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

Attack helicopters with standoff weapons have proven useful and fairly survivable (in that they're still fighting over a year and a half later) thus far in the Ukraine conflict.

There are some use cases for helicopters, in that they can be fifty miles up or down the front in minutes. I find this unconvincing thought most of the time. The Russians have to use them because they designed that missile for the sensor suite on that helicopter, and the helicopter around the missile. The newest top tier ATGMs if you can even call them that, like the latest generation Spike missile have a standoff range of tens of kilometers, and are are pretty much launch platform agnostic. The best way to deploy them on defense is park them on a disposable launcher in an outhouse, and the second best way is a super stealthy UGV, any midsize four wheel drive pick up equivalent works too. All of these options are dirt cheap, have a vastly lower logistics overhead, and therefore free up huge amounts of money to buy more of the missiles. The choice between 500 missiles in inventory, m with ten helicopters to launch them from, and five or ten THOUSAND missiles to deploy on cheap attritable, and preferably unmanned platforms should not be hard.

Edited September 8, 2023 by dan/california

[kevinkin]

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

So, what will the US do if the others are not compliant enough to just let them play to their strengths and target the enemy's weaknesses?

Well maneuver warfare theory would disrupt any attempt by the enemy to do so. And it would not involve sending our kids headlong into minefields like the RA has had the time to set-up. These are not Iraqi minefields. I feel sorry of the UA troops having to so without flights of B52s completely demoralizing those Russians covering the fortifications.  

[Letter from Prague]

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Well maneuver warfare theory would disrupt any attempt by the enemy to do so. And it would not involve sending our kids headlong into minefields like the RA has had the time to set-up. These are not Iraqi minefields. I feel sorry of the UA troops having to so without flights of B52s completely demoralizing those Russians covering the fortifications.  

True, this might not be defensive primacy but "the West gave Russians a year to dig in by trickling support for Ukraine" primacy.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://kyivindependent.com/monitoring-group-russia-withdraws-almost-all-air-forces-from-belarus/

The Russian Air Force has withdrawn almost all of its aircraft stationed in Belarus, leaving behind only one Su-25 attack plane, the monitoring group Belarusian Hajun reported on Sept. 8.

 

I wonder if this because they are worried about partisan/ SOF drone attacks in Belarus, or the desperately need every aircraft in the south.

[kevinkin]

I remember a few years ago all the talk was was how the US Army would fight urban warfare with the advent of mega cities. Now the most important war in generations is being fought on open steppe. It's very difficult to predict what systems will win the the next war. Or the environment they will be used in. The classic example is carriers vs battleships. I think what the UA has reminded us is that you need to adapted to the situation and systems you are forced to fight with. This requires a superior way of thinking about war. For every new tactical weapon system, there has been counter that has always emerged. The US spent billions on the Ford, if low cost drones made that expenditure irreverent I want my money back. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-launches-massive-drone-swarm-program-counter-china/389797/

To counter that advantage, the Defense Department will launch an initiative called Replicator to create cheap drones across the air, sea, and land in the “multiple thousands” within the next two years. 

Cheap drones, of the type Ukraine has deployed to great effect against Russia, can be produced close to the battlefield at much lower cost than typical Defense Department weapons. 

 

The Pentagon may finally be getting it.

[kevinkin]

53 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Pentagon may finally be getting it

Unfortunately they often get things after they become irrelevant. Additive manufacturing on the battlefield was something I brought up years ago and was sort of laughed at. Drones will never win a quick and decisive war against a near peer. You need to bring overwhelming firepower to bear to break the will of the enemy. Humans with fears and don't want to die.  Drones of all types have a role. But we might be getting enamored with the newest and sexist thing. They are pin pricks in a war of this scale the can not win quickly with low human cost. I don't think the US will mothball our carriers. They have a role too. Otherwise, I want my money back. It's sort of amazing that Ukraine is relying on Star Link from the private sector outside bounds of formal elected public policy. Also, I would never recommend putting all my eggs in one basket. The the enemy will know and turn a perceived advantage into a vulnerability. Drones may save lives in the pursuit of foreign policy some day, but we are not there yet. They might be actually enabling the huge loss of life. 

[FancyCat]

I suppose the North Korea deal was the shot across the bow.

Quote

The United States is "likely" to send ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles to Ukraine, according to U.S. government sources speaking to ABC News.  Kyiv has long requested supply of these missiles, which can be fired from Ukraine's M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS.