How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

Of course all I had to do was scroll down, sorry.

[cesmonkey]

Ukraine provides details on the truck bomb used last year in the explosion on the Kerch bridge:
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/110699
 

Quote

A truck and 21 tons of hexane: Head of the SBU Malyuk told how the Crimean Bridge was blown up for the first time in October of last year.

In order to bring 21 tons of hexane to the bridge inconspicuously, the SBU employees wrapped the explosives with packing film. Rolls of such film, according to the legend of the special operation, were to be officially transported by a truck.

The Security Service even released unique photos of the preparations for the detonation of the Crimean Bridge. As Vasyl Malyuk told in an interview with "NV" magazine, the SBU employees specially selected such a thickness of the film that the scanners at the checkpoints would not notice the explosives.

In addition, the SBU "bypassed" special jammers on the Crimean Bridge, which confuse GPS coordinates. So on October 8, 2022, a load of "film" flew into the air in the middle of the bridge.

"We went through the seven circles of hell, used so many Russians in the dark!" - says the Head of the SBU.

 

[cesmonkey]

Ukrainian attack drone that can complete its flight to the target even if its GPS signal is jammed:
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/110706
 

Quote

️Artificial intelligence, a maximum payload of 2.5 kg and automatic flight mode: the Ministry of Defense has approved domestic SkyKnight UAVs for military use.

SkyKnight 2 is quite fast, powerful and quiet at the same time.

If the operator already has piloting skills on DJI, Autel, on stabilized platforms, he will learn SkyKnight 2 very quickly, approximately in a week.

When the operator determines the target to be hit, the drone will fly to it in automatic mode, because it will already be controlled by the on-board computer.

Even through loss of communication due to jamming by enemy EW, this drone will still fly to the target determined by the operator.
 

 

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Teufel said:

Sovjet being Sovjet, it maybe reflects all of the above and all at once?

Russian source wrote this altitude is typical for ATGM launch. Also Russians wrote they lost not Ka-52, but newest Ka-52M (15 millions $ cost). This helicopter got new avionic, new optical targeting system, longer range of target locking, increased capabilities of target detection and recognition, capability to lauch perspective small cruise missile. Developing of Ka-52M has been starting in 2020 and in January 2023 first helicopters were received by Army. Again about effectiveness of sanctions. 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Ukraine provides details on the truck bomb used last year in the explosion on the Kerch bridge:
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/110699
 

 

In longer version of interview Maliuk told about UKR maritime drones. He told recently they attacked two Russian frigates and frigate "Admiral Esssen" got damages and was under repair some time. But it's turned out amout of HE onboard of first drones was insufficient to cause significant damages, so new version - "Sea baby" was developed with 850 kg of HE charge, system of self-destruction and with triple system of navigation and control, allowing to avoid GPS jamming. Also "Sea baby" got new hull of special radar-transparency material, which hiders detection.

All latter attacks of bridge and Russian vessels were conducted with "Sea baby" drones. He told operators two days headed drones over the sea to the bridge almost without sleeping. Maliuk said he even ordered operators do not sail so fast. All were on high nerves tension, so when drones hit the bridge they all shout like a crazy.  

Interesting that the name of drone is a playword of the SBU chief surname - Maliuk is a "baby, little kid" in Ukrainian %)  

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

Havent seen this posted here, anti FPV kamikaze drone device.

Video of it in action: 

t.me/romandonik/3834?single

Quote

we are collecting 1 million 200 thousand hryvnias for 20 sets. There will be more, we will buy more. I will be grateful for sharing.

Thanks to everyone who helps. [PayPal bank in the TG post, Roman Donik is trustworthy]

 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

48 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Havent seen this posted here, anti FPV kamikaze drone device.

Video of it in action: 

t.me/romandonik/3834?single

 

Now such devices and pocket frequency analizers to detect presense of drones nearby are actively developing both in Russia and Ukraine by various volunteer teams and sometine by defense complex companies. Some models already in use. On Russian military exhibition were showed devices, mounted on tank turerret.  

This "trench"/"turret" EW supressors now have different effectiveness and zones of supressions due to different antennas and power of device. Main problems - heating, especially in conditions of hot weather and too high level of electomagnetic field, which harms to health of those, who constantly will be in area of this device emmition.  

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russians claim yesterday UKR maritime drone tried to attack Russian ships - antisubmarine frigate (guard ship by Soveit classification) "Pytlivyi" and patrol ship "Vasiliy Bykov" in 237 km SW from Sevastopol, but was destroyed by their fire

 

Antisubmarine frigate "Pytlivyi" (pr. 1135M, NATO code Krivak-II). Old ship, laid down in 1979 and launching in 1981

Patrol ship "Vasiliy Bykov" (pr.22160), laid down in 2014, launched in 2017

 

 

[Teufel]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Ukraine provides details on the truck bomb used last year in the explosion on the Kerch bridge:
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/110699
 

 

Very interesting, thanks for sharing! From details provided they pretty much describe massive Molotov cocktail. Hexane is 6-carbon distillate from refining crude, add two carbons and we have octane. Hexane is easier to combust than octane, does however not yield same level of thermal energy, e.g. temperature of combustion.

Going back to discussion about blast waves approx. month ago the lower thermal energy has benefits over octane. Hexane evaporates at lower temp., burns at lower temp. and thus burns faster in bigger “cloud” when set off by sudden increase in temp.

Depending on amount hexane:explosives the solvent was either used to amplify blast wave or secondary use. It has very different odor compared to smell of gasoline that is octane. Untrained noses as in people not spending much time working with chemicals and recognizing octane will probably not recognize the sweet but pungent odor of hexane. If sniffer dogs had been used the smell of hexane would easily obstruct the smell of submerged explosives. Fooling canine and human sniffers alike.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Teufel

[Haiduk]

Russians struck the center of Chernihiv city with Iskander-M ballistic missile. Reportedly 7 citizens were killed (anong them 6 y.o girl), 90 wounded (among them 12 children, one girl is critical). Among wounded 25 are hospitalized, other got light injuries. 

In this day in this buiding of city drama theater was announced "Angry birds" exhibition, were developers of drones have to represent own designs and air-recons shared with own experience. There are many kids and parents were on the square near the theater in this weekend, because of big church holiday in Ukriane on 19th of August and a church was nearby.

Organizers of exhibition claimed the place of "open-day" was announced only for 4 hours before beginning and only to virified persons. The building was given by local city administration. The event started at 10:00 and in 11:30 there was a strike. Obviously somebody gave information to Russians. Luckyly when air raid alarm was claimed most of guests went away to first floor and to the underground floor, but some people went to outside and were hit by fragments. The missile hit the roof and almost completely destroyed second floor from inside. Tough overlap between floors saved the people on first floor. The theater was buit in 1959 and in thar time all public and administrative buidings in USSR had been designing with big margin of safety for case of war, so despite ballistic missile hit the theater looks not enough damaged from outside, 

BTW I wonder, what idiot at all came up with exhibition idea in the city close to the border, wealky protected by AD (Chernihiv since spring of 2022 was relatively calm place, so wasn't need to keep there too much AD assets). Especially afetr UKR drone hit exhibition center in Moscow, where Russian military exhibition tool place.

The moment of strike:

Aftermath:

 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Teufel said:

From details provided they pretty much describe massive Molotov cocktail. Hexane is 6-carbon distillate from refining crude

Maybe wrong translation. Not hexane, but hexogen HE was used.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Locals write about allegedly two planes were hit. Soltsy-2 is reserve airfield, but Russian Tu-22M3 use it for temporary deploying. Now reportedly two Tu-22M3 took of and heading to Olenya airbase. Reportedly 10 Tu-22M3 were deployed there.

Russian MoD claimed the attack was conducted by "helicopter type drone" and it was shot down with small arms, but fell on aircraft parking.

  

Interesting, that Soltsy-2 airfield is located in about 680 km from Ukrianian border - too far for "helicopter type frone", but ralatively not far from Pskov oblast, where recently several strike helicopters were set on fire by diversion group. 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Teufel]

1 hour ago, Teufel said:

Very interesting, thanks for sharing! From details provided they pretty much describe massive Molotov cocktail. Hexane is 6-carbon distillate from refining crude, add two carbons and we have octane. Hexane is easier to combust than octane, does however not yield same level of thermal energy, e.g. temperature of combustion.

Going back to discussion about blast waves approx. month ago the lower thermal energy has benefits over octane. Hexane evaporates at lower temp., burns at lower temp. and thus burns faster in bigger “cloud” when set off by sudden increase in temp.

Depending on amount hexane:explosives the solvent was either used to amplify blast wave or secondary use. It has very different odor compared to smell of gasoline that is octane. Untrained noses as in people not spending much time working with chemicals and recognizing octane will probably not recognize the sweet but pungent odor of hexane. If sniffer dogs had been used the smell of hexane would easily obstruct the smell of submerged explosives. Fooling canine and human sniffers alike.

 

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Maybe wrong translation. Not hexane, but hexogen HE was used.

As per Haiduk’s post, the truck wasn’t Molotov cocktail. The laws of nature do however apply, although not used as speculated if lost in translation. HE is obviously much better choice than hexane, interesting if they used HE straight up. Simple approach but inherently sensitive to mechanical shock. Can’t argue with choice given the execution.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Teufel

[Haiduk]

AF Command reported this night 15 of 17 Shakheds were shot down. Looks like these two could cuse this sh...t. 

Edited. Looks like detonation took place - local administrations reported about 400 private houses and some administrative buildings and schools in two territorial communities of Khmelnytskyi oblast were damaged (mostly broken windows). I doubt such anout of damages was caused by dozen of Shakheds shooting down over the villages, but who knows. 

 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

NATO standard

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Locals write about allegedly two planes were hit. Soltsy-2 is reserve airfield, but Russian Tu-22M3 use it for temporary deploying. Now reportedly two Tu-22M3 took of and heading to Olenya airbase. Reportedly 10 Tu-22M3 were deployed there.

Has there been any confirmed Storm Shadow strikes lately?  I thought there was one since the Russians hit the base they were operating out of, but I don't recall any since.

As for the bridge truck bomb... interesting that Ukraine would officially release such detailed information about the operation.  Obviously they believe it does them no harm to do so.  But standard practice for such operations is to keep details secret for a very long time.  I wonder what motivated them to be so specific about it?

The naval drone strikes are similar.  Some details seem to be beneficial to get out there, but generally such ops are kept quiet in order to accidentally providing some information to the enemy that may prove useful.  For example that the boats went slowly over a number of days (though I kinda presumed that was the case, so maybe not a big deal?).

Speaking of recent naval drone strikes, here's close up video of the XX in Sig.  That is quite a hole in the side:

Steve

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Has there been any confirmed Storm Shadow strikes lately?  I thought there was one since the Russians hit the base they were operating out of, but I don't recall any since.

Yes, at least two strikes on bridges throuhg Syvash in Crimea

[cesmonkey]

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, at least two strikes on bridges throuhg Syvash in Crimea

Ah yes!!  I hadn't thought about those!  Thanks

Steve

[Jr Buck Private]

14 hours ago, chris talpas said:

I’m not sure how much congressional support will even exist once the primaries start since the rank and file Republicans may not want to offend the front runners and their enthusiastic supporters (I’m trying to be diplomatic),

Ronald Reagan and John McCain must be spinning in their graves -God rest their souls

I would have never imagined the Republican Party being the pro Russian dictatorship party.  

Sorry for rant

I agree 100 percent.   If the democratic party suddenly turned into an anti Ukraine "let's spend our money on schools instead of war" type of party then those republicans would flock into supporting Ukraine.   They just will not agree with the other side on anything.   That's the state of US politics right now.   As much as I dislike Mitch McConnel I give him props for never faltering against Russia's aggression.   

[kimbosbread]

So, Russian terror strikes… if the conflict goes on for another two years or worst case is frozen for much longer, how do you prevent them? It’s not like they’ll stop producing missiles, or stop attacking civilians.

Ideas:

1. Give Ukraine a Tomahawk etc. for every strike (US is too afraid to do this though, plus small stockpiles for China)
2. Give Ukraine more AD (A bit of this has been done, but it’s not foolproof and it is very expensive)
3. Diplomatic approach where all Russians are expelled from NATO countries and have assets seized
4. Actually have tougher sanctions on dual use electronics
5. Attack Russian civilian infrastructure- dams, water treatment, power plants, food storage, etc.

At this stage, I think (5) would be fine. Power plants especially can be justified on the grounds that the power is used for industry. Imagine you hit Moscow and St Petersburg power plants with drones once a week the whole winter. That would at least slow down some military activity.

EDIT: And we’re gonna face another major point where if Russia does something haram at ZNPP, presumably the west will just grumble but not take immediate strong action.

Edited August 19, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Vanir Ausf B]

It's going to be #2, obviously.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

So, Russian terror strikes… if the conflict goes on for another two years or worst case is frozen for much longer, how do you prevent them? It’s not like they’ll stop producing missiles, or stop attacking civilians.

Ideas:

1. Give Ukraine a Tomahawk etc. for every strike (US is too afraid to do this though, plus small stockpiles for China)
2. Give Ukraine more AD (A bit of this has been done, but it’s not foolproof and it is very expensive)
3. Diplomatic approach where all Russians are expelled from NATO countries and have assets seized
4. Actually have tougher sanctions on dual use electronics
5. Attack Russian civilian infrastructure- dams, water treatment, power plants, food storage, etc.

At this stage, I think (5) would be fine. Power plants especially can be justified on the grounds that the power is used for industry. Imagine you hit Moscow and St Petersburg power plants with drones once a week the whole winter. That would at least slow down some military activity.

EDIT: And we’re gonna face another major point where if Russia does something haram at ZNPP, presumably the west will just grumble but not take immediate strong action.

Ukraine has developed a Shaheed equivalent. It needs the help to build THOUSANDS of them, perhaps tens of thousands. When they can credibly threaten to knock out every power plant in Russia west of the Urals, some Russians might reconsider. As always it is Moscow and St Petersburg that really matter. No power in Moscow on Orthodox Christmas when it is -20C might get some peoples attention

Edited August 19, 2023 by dan/california

[Vanir Ausf B]

The Drive has a nice article on why F-16s should be viewed as a long-term investment rather than a short term solution.

_____

“They're young pilots that barely have any hours at all. So they're not currently fighting the war,” he said.

The Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing language training in the U.K.

“And then they're going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the [Dornier Alpha Jets] for a little bit, that all is going to take time,” said Hecker. “And that's probably not going to happen before the end of the year. So that takes a while to make that happen. So that's why it's going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-f-16-combat-proficiency-at-scale-not-likely-before-2027-air-force-general-says

Also, a thoughtful thread from Justin Bonk regarding western contractors.

 

[Haiduk]

More about how drones with thermal camera can help to detect minefields in hot summer