How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Assault of company strongpoint by 3rd assault brigade "Azov" in Klishchiivka area. FPV video about week ago (ENG subs can be switched on). 1st part. To be continued.

Author of video says their enemies were elements of 72nd motor-rifle brigade and "Shtorm-Z".

 

Edited August 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

That anti-drone 'net' used to be a tent!

How long until we see two-stage munitions for drones? Not long, I guess.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

So, seizing of positions near Kozachi Laheri is either support action to attract Russian troops until SOF will busy on other place or... maybe this attempt of next bridgehead.

There have been reports of Russians shifting units from the Kherson group to the Tokmak direction to supplement the reserves which are running out. I think the primary reason for raids in the area of the "Dniepr" grouping is to remind the Russians that they cannot keep removing soldiers from there.

[Teufel]

Various tids and bits in addition to what Haiduk already posted.

Fighting in area of Robotyne is reported in the form of Russian counterattacks from Verbove direction, e.g. east south east direction. Artillery battles ongoing with more active Ukrainian than Russian. More importantly several trenches are claimed captured in direction of Novoprokopivka, directly south of Robotyne. Appears the fighting is continuing in south western direction from previous Ukrainian positions east of Robotyne. Cutting road between the two settlements rather than direct assault on their respective communities.

In yet other news

And as always the all important Tom Cooper on Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka area.

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-8-august-2023-staromlynivka?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

[Kinophile]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/world/europe/ukraine-marines-counteroffensive.html

Quote

The marines said that they were grateful for the various Western armored vehicles, which they said saved lives and were superior to the outdated Soviet-era tanks and armored vehicles that they had been using. But above all, commanders were taking care to give further training to new recruits and making sure that they were mixed in with more experienced marines for operations.

“You cannot be completely prepared for combat however much you train,” said Shturval, 52, who was overseeing training for a group of recruits brought in to make up for recent losses in the 35th Marine Brigade. “In the first fight, they go in with our veterans, and after two or three battles they are veterans themselves.”

Quote

“Bit by bit, we will find a place where the seam will split open,” Consul said. “Water cuts through stone, and we’ll do the same, bit by bit. At first it is a small stream and then it turns into a river.”

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

There have been reports of Russians shifting units from the Kherson group to the Tokmak direction to supplement the reserves which are running out. I think the primary reason for raids in the area of the "Dniepr" grouping is to remind the Russians that they cannot keep removing soldiers from there.

That is my thought.  This is exactly what I would do if I were in command of Ukrainian forces.  It is akin to what they did with the cross border raids near Belgorod and Kursk.  The more places Russia thins out, the more opportunities for Ukraine to remind them of the downsides.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Just small curiosity- now chief of Ukraine's Defence Council Danilov claims that Prigozhine coup was staged to test Russian generals. Ofc. he can also play own games, but perhaps worth to note.

https://censor.net/en/news/3436196/prigozhins_mutiny_is_special_operation_approved_by_putin_danilov?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]

 

https://suspilne.media/546749-danilov-zakolot-prigozina-ce-specoperacia-aku-pogodiv-putin-sob-pereviriti-generaliv/

Edited August 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Just small curiosity- now chief of Ukraine's Defence Council Danilov claims that Prigozhine coup was staged to test Russian generals. Ofc. he can also play own games, but perhaps worth to note.

https://censor.net/en/news/3436196/prigozhins_mutiny_is_special_operation_approved_by_putin_danilov?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]

 

https://suspilne.media/546749-danilov-zakolot-prigozina-ce-specoperacia-aku-pogodiv-putin-sob-pereviriti-generaliv/

Yeah, I saw that.  It was one of the early theories put out there, but I don't think it fits the facts.  Including people behind the scenes saying Putin was furious.  I also think the speech he made wasn't indicative of some sort of master plan.

It does serve Ukraine's purposes to have people thinking that there's a major turf war going on between Putin and his generals.

Steve

[JonS]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

It does serve Ukraine's purposes to have people thinking that there's a major turf war going on between Putin and his generals.

It would also be seizing the narrative initiative, since it requires Russia to start responding to Ukraine's story rather than pushing one of their own.

[Battlefront.com]

42 minutes ago, Teufel said:

And as always the all important Tom Cooper on Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka area.

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-8-august-2023-staromlynivka?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

If his information about the Russian units, this is good news as it confirms tidbits of information we've seen and of course what we hope will happen.  Which is that Russia doesn't have full units of any significant size in reserve.  When Ukraine smashes something it has to make do with some low grade sub units thrown in from wherever plus whatever shattered remains of the original units that can be shoved back into the front.

We're also seeing a repeat of Kherson where VDV units are not being used as rapid reaction forces, but rather standard line infantry.  Which is also a good thing.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

It would also be seizing the narrative initiative, since it requires Russia to start responding to Ukraine's story rather than pushing one of their own.

Yes, and there is that.  It's like calling someone's mother ugly.  She may be, she might not be, but once you put out such an accusation it's bound to stir up trouble

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Aftermath of yesterday Russian missile strike on Pokrovsk town, Donetsk oblast. Iskander-M hit residential building, when police and emergency services arrived, trough 30 minutes Russians hit nearby with other Iskander-M. As result of strike were killed 7 and wounded 88 of people, among them were wounded 31 policemen and was killed deputy chief of Emergency Service of Donetsk oblast. 

Russians as always claimed they have struck "command center"

 

Adding a face to this tragic story.

This being a wargaming forum we mostly focus on the AFU personnel and their heroic deeds. But this is a good moment to remember the heroic work that Ukrainian emergency services personnel have also being doing during the course of this war.

Edited August 8, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Teufel]

Experts of the Battlefront community, have at it. The bitching is about to start, get the popcorn.

There are some puzzling stuff about the new brigades that not seen much about at all here nor elsewhere. So much discussion and expectations about the potential of the newly formed Ukrainian brigades, but has anyone checked the engine under the hood.

There is point of observation that everyone staring blindly on shiny toys that lend inspiration for cool memes, such as Leopards, Abrams and F-16s. Where are the not so sexy toys of engineering and air defense equipment to boot. Quite frankly we don’t know the the problems of the Ukrainians, neither can or should we, due to lack of comprehensive and available data. Just for example, how many pledged and sent packages list engineering equipment? Anyone? No? 

Ukrainians are in fact not equipped with necessary and needed military equipment and weapons. From point of view that they can use all that firepower of their tanks. Really become effective operational units without limiting them to spread out mechanized forces.

Out of the total number of new brigades, there are how many mechanized brigades formed - well 17. In terms of formation, let’s take off western glasses again and look from the other side. By Sovjet-Russia standard, this would be in the form of 17 tank battalions and 50 mechanized battalions. Grey wrinkled Sovjet mathematician says 500+ tanks and 1500+ APV, numbers are kosher. Let’s keep screaming on top of lungs about tanks, tanks and tanks, and soon planes too.

Each of those brigades should have one engineering battalion, battalion/division of air defense, etc. How many do they have? Current standard in the Ukrainian mechanized brigades, sorry old Sovjet, each of these brigades should have 4 artillery battalions/divisions. Yes, no, maybe, who cares anyway. What’s the point of all this?

Frankly, we should care more than we do about not so sexy aspects as we maybe are missing the obvious. The mechanized brigade, from formation point of view has 13 tactical units and another 4-5 lower tactical units. Huge military unit of a higher tactical level, basically in terms of the number of units it has in its composition it resembles a mini-division.

When each of these units are equipped with more than just tanks, tanks, tanks but also not so sexy standard weapons and military equipment. Then they would really reach their full potential with all that great firepower. The newly formed brigades have no problems deploying trained soldiers. Trained on provided equipment and weapons. Problems are with equipping its units with appropriate unsexy weapons and military equipment.

This is just one of the reasons why Ukrainians cannot use its newly formed brigades to the full extent. Which corresponds to the very structure and equipment received to form these. A number of tactical units, which are in the composition of the brigades.

Tanks, tanks, tanks, and soon planes too. Why doesn’t it work? Let’s throw more tanks at the problem, yeah that should do it!

Armchair General has spoken. Not patronizing, but please can we get some exciting nerdy stuff also?

Edited August 8, 2023 by Teufel

[cesmonkey]

A journalist talks with members of the Ukrainian  47th brigade. Subtitles work.

 

[JonS]

44 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Just for example, how many pledged and sent packages list engineering equipment?

Almost all of them?

Late last year and early this year the was noticeable shift from deliveries being almost exclusively defensive and immediate use equipment, to a higher proportion of offensive and sustainment equipment, including a lot of engineering stuff (esp breaching)

Edited August 8, 2023 by JonS

[Teufel]

50 minutes ago, JonS said:

Almost all of them?

Late last year and early this year the was noticeable shift from deliveries being predominantly defensive equipment, to more offensively and sustainment intended equipment, including a lit of engineering stuff (esp breaching)

Great!

If such is the equipment of packages pleaded and in fact sent then we must keep calm and carry on. Don’t take the lack of effective deployment and progress on formation and equipment. Lists did contain engineering equipment, just nobody got excited about it.

Hold on, one more question - in relation to number of tanks, shells, etc. how much was lots of engineering stuff?

Edit - wasn’t suggesting total lack off. My point was rather “is there enough boring equipment in relation to cool stuff for the situation that could be foreseen?”. Could anyone end of last year/beginning of this year have expected the Russians to dig in and mine every hole they could dig?

If so, the Russians are digging in you say? Let’s see, send some engineering equipment and more tanks. Total surprise how much they dug in, should really sent more tanks.

Hindsight is 20/20 and not fair to point fingers with results at hand. But it is fair to ask before we keep going down same path that didn’t work as expected, how about - lots more boring standard stuff?

Edited August 8, 2023 by Teufel

[kevinkin]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

remind them

I think they have a psyops component to them as well and as way to train a leadership cadre. Raids can produce independent tacticians with a more intimate knowledge of the enemy than 8 weeks in the UK. Raids can deliver distraction and dislocation in the context of maneuver warfare albeit on a very small scale. 

[kevinkin]

39 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Great!

If such is the equipment of packages pleaded and in fact sent then we must keep calm and carry on. Don’t take the lack of effective deployment and progress on formation and equipment. Lists did contain engineering equipment, just nobody got excited about it.

Hold on, one more question - in relation to number of tanks, shells, etc. how much was lots of engineering stuff?

The west was giddy as schools girls with Russia's operational defeats last year. But the west failed to followed through put the hammer down out of fear of WMD. But what they also failed to comprehend is that the weekly strategic drone strikes are also a form of WMD when compounded. No fallout. No chemicals or viruses. But the effect on Ukraine as a young nation with a ancient culture is the same. For over a year the west has been titrating support with the hope of a Russian collapse. The famous sign in the bar; Free Beer! ... Tomorrow. Except nothing here is free.

There needs to be a major shift in the strategic calculus whereby WMD are removed from the picture - not physically but effectively. This will not happen on the static battlefield as we see it today. Putin loves what he is getting - death and destruction. He feels it hardens his people. And the west is playing into his hands. At some point western leaders have to stare their citizens in the eyes and tell them this is long war, here is why winning is vital, and we are in WW3 vs authoritarian rulers and the minions that keep them in power. This war is just to big to be nuisanced. Whatever happened to MAD? Why is the west looking so weak. Isn't the west the bastion of hope and prosperity?         

Edited August 8, 2023 by kevinkin

[JonS]

The thing about engineers, and engineering equipment, is the correct quantity is tricky to quantify, although the rules-of-thumb are easy to articulate;

During peacetime the correct quantity is 'a lot less', because boring, expensive, and unsexy.

During wartime the correct quantity is 'a lot more', because useful, and amusing. (Although engineers themselves remain deeply, deeply unsexy)

The transition is tricky, though, because you can't just nip down to IKEA and get a couple of flat pack bailey bridges, or order some more engineers off amazon for express delivery.

Edited August 9, 2023 by JonS

[JonS]

56 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Whatever happened to MAD?

Do you have nazi genealogy? You seem very wedded to a gotterdammerung world view.

MAD continues to work as it always did. Especially the M and D bits. Also the A bit.

Currently Putin seems very keen on D, and while NATO et al are also keen on D for Russia they're less so on it for either themselves or Ukraine. Therefore there is little enthusiasm for MAing it.

Edited August 9, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

MAD continues to work as it always did

Tell that to a Ukrainian widow. 

 

5 minutes ago, JonS said:

nazi genealogy

Typical come back for a person who is uncomfortable in their own skin and world view.

[JonS]

So ... yes?

[kevinkin]

7 minutes ago, JonS said:

So ... yes?

Soo ... confirmed! 

 

[danfrodo]

Please lord, give JonS the strength to not respond lest we descend into yet another......

Edited August 9, 2023 by danfrodo

[kevinkin]

Amen my father whose art is in Oregon.