How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Unfortunately, money doesn’t just talk, it SCREAMS!

Well, sure. That's why we need govt: people won't just spontaneously chose to do the right thing.

Case in point:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300941132/elon-musk-refuses-to-turn-on-starlink-for-crimea-drone-attack

Remember that next time someone seductively whispers "outsourcing" in your ear.

[kevinkin]

A little bit of something or a lot of nothing?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1797618/Poland-NATO-Belarus-hybrid-warfare-Russia

The latter. But could Belarus have been given a role in distracting NATO to some degree? With Wagner in summer camp and all. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

I think it is nearly certain that Russia is trying to (again) use Belarus as a distraction.  It didn't do much last year with all the movement of Belarusian military units back and forth, so I don't think it will do anything this time.

Steve

[kevinkin]

Do you think Russia would just love for Poland to shoot down a chopper for PR? This report claims Russian support is increasing. If true, the us vs them mentality being used again. 

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-07-31/ukraine-gains-momentum-as-new-russian-threats-loom

[Battlefront.com]

Misc. videos:

1.  Lancet destroys plywood decoy made to look like a German IRIS-T system:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/15ffxt5/and_this_is_exactly_the_german_irist_air_defense/

2.  HIMARS strike along the Black Sea coast:

3.  First good picture of the damage to the Chonhar bridge (supposedly):

4.  Something got hit in Sevastopol a few hours ag:

Steve

[Teufel]

Don’t even know what to caption this, fascists would be complimenting.

 

[Teufel]

3 hours ago, Mindestens said:

Polish MOD admits two russian/belarusian choppers crossed polish border today and flew over some villages before flying back to Belarus. MOD was denying it since morning even tho multiple pictures from locals clearly shown helis close to where pics were taken and geolocated to be indeed on polish soil.

The document states that Nato partners were informed about the incident and belarusian diplomat was called to explain the situation to ministry of foreign affairs.

 

Claimed to be video of the same incident.

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by Teufel

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Don’t even know what to caption this, fascists would be complimenting.

 

I'd like to see a source about this one before I buy into it.

Steve

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

That's why we need govt: people won't just spontaneously chose to do the right thing.

Might want to run that theory by Jews under the elected Nazi govt: Or others persecuted under multiple forms of govt: in the past. 

Governments almost always spontaneously chose to do the wrong thing by impeding people from doing the right thing in their family's interest except in very very rare cases. Womb to Tomb societies mean the very few dominate the very many. No one wants that.   

But in the context of Musk, wasn't the the US going to purchase bandwidth? No different than dealing with Boeing? They are not reconfiguring their business (ie Boeing) because some government says so. 

[A Canadian Cat]

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Thanks for the report. I jumped to the conclusion and the writer seems to be advocating pushing Russia to the brink of nuclear war in an effort to call their bluff.

I have not read the full thing yet but nothing you quoted says anything about calling Putin's nuclear bluff. Seems like you are jumping to conclusions there.

 

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

The writer seems to be inferring the US election and results could be a factor. Well yes they are. But that should not drive the overall strategy. I don't think the policymakers in DC are going to "abandon Ukraine or, if possible, Europe altogether". 

I think everyone should be extremely concerned about one of the possible change in presidential scenarios and it's effect on the war in Ukraine.

I think you are correct that a lot of the political wheels will not want to abandon Ukraine. But they don't get the final say. The damage to international relationships recently done is not repaired and another round of helping Putin is not going to be neutral to Ukraine's position at all.

[sburke]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think it is nearly certain that Russia is trying to (again) use Belarus as a distraction.  It didn't do much last year with all the movement of Belarusian military units back and forth, so I don't think it will do anything this time.

Steve

didn't Putin take all Wagner's heavy weapons anyway?

[stuxneet]

New feature request 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, stuxneet said:

New feature request 

Oh great, another thing to go onto the list. It is as if Ukrainians are deliberately trying to make our job so much harder

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Governments almost always spontaneously chose to do the wrong thing by impeding people from doing the right thing in their family's interest except in very very rare cases.

  Yup, which is why I plan on moving to some place like the Congo.  I hear it's a paradise because there's no government there to impede people from doing the right thing, like hiring Wagner to come thousands of miles to mass murder people so that the riches can be mined for the benefit of the few at the expense of the many.

People are selfish and brutal by their very nature.  They make governments to either reinforce those tendencies (bad governance) or curb them (good governance).  Either way, it's going to be a flawed outcome because people are running them and see my first point.

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

But in the context of Musk, wasn't the the US going to purchase bandwidth? No different than dealing with Boeing? They are not reconfiguring their business (ie Boeing) because some government says so. 

Oh, it's different than dealing with Boeing.  Boeing isn't run by a single person who is increasingly putting his personal beliefs above profit.  Boeing is all about profit, not personal agendas.

From what I remember Musk said he objects to Starlink being used for military purposes.  If he wants to selectively apply that he can because, unlike Boeing, nobody can tell him not to.

Steve

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, IanL said:

I have not read the full thing yet but nothing you quoted says anything about calling Putin's nuclear bluff. Seems like you are jumping to conclusions there.

Note the terms used: "seems to be advocating." A perfectly reasonable interpretation of the words the writer used which are pretty darn hawkish. Perhaps the hawkish I have read about this war. 

[A Canadian Cat]

28 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Note the terms used: "seems to be advocating."

No, you reached a conclusion of your own. You can make the argument that such decisions would do that but you cannot claim they think that is the outcome. 

I think they are right that providing more weapons would not cause a nuclear war. You might think it would. I'd ask what your concern is based on but a) you have already made thar case so no real need to do it again and b) Steve asked us not too.

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, IanL said:

No, you reached a conclusion of your own. You can make the argument that such decisions would do that but you cannot claim they think that is the outcome. 

I think they are right that providing more weapons would not cause a nuclear war. You might think it would. I'd ask what your concern is based on but a) you have already made thar case so no real need to do it again and b) Steve asked us not too.

Let's just leave it be. 

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

People are selfish and brutal by their very nature.  They make governments to either reinforce those tendencies (bad governance) or curb them (good governance).  Either way, it's going to be a flawed outcome because people are running them and see my first point.

Actually, there have been a large number of studies that show that the majority of people aren't 'selfish & brutal' and are altruistic in many ways ... perhaps most ways ... sure, there will always be sociopaths, psycopaths, malignant narcissists and others with anti-social personality disorders, but they are in a minority.

The problem is when such people gain control over the levers of power ... they can do a heck of a lot of damage.

Putin in Russia, the Kims in Korea, Xi in China are all good (bad?) examples ... 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

  Oh, it's different than dealing with Boeing.  Boeing isn't run by a single person who is increasingly putting his personal beliefs above profit.  Boeing is all about profit, not personal agendas.

From what I remember Musk said he objects to Starlink being used for military purposes.  If he wants to selectively apply that he can because, unlike Boeing, nobody can tell him not to.

SpaceX very much at the mercy of the USG - basically everything they do includes things on the US Munitions List (Categories IV and XV), so they have to have a whole bunch of people whose job is to deal with export and launch licenses. Just about anything that can do anything useful in space is in Category XV until proven otherwise. The more erratic Musk acts, the harder their job is going to be.  I don't know detailed specs of Starlink, but I suspect a lot of it falls squarely into Category XV, despite being intended as dual-use.  And they can't just say "we're going to build and launch them all outside the US" because that requires export.  

[Battlefront.com]

50 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Actually, there have been a large number of studies that show that the majority of people aren't 'selfish & brutal' and are altruistic in many ways ... perhaps most ways ... sure, there will always be sociopaths, psycopaths, malignant narcissists and others with anti-social personality disorders, but they are in a minority.

I agree most people are not brutal, but the majority of people are selfish.  The way totalitarian regimes work is that the few (brutal) convince the majority to mind their own business (selfish) instead of opposing the regime's activities.  That is how the Putins and the Kims and the Xis of this world stay in power, not because the majority of people are kind and altruistic.

I've got a few thousand years of documented history to back me up on this

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

SpaceX very much at the mercy of the USG - basically everything they do includes things on the US Munitions List (Categories IV and XV), so they have to have a whole bunch of people whose job is to deal with export and launch licenses. Just about anything that can do anything useful in space is in Category XV until proven otherwise. The more erratic Musk acts, the harder their job is going to be.  I don't know detailed specs of Starlink, but I suspect a lot of it falls squarely into Category XV, despite being intended as dual-use.  And they can't just say "we're going to build and launch them all outside the US" because that requires export.  

I have read through most of ITAR and the law does not allow for arbitrary and discriminatory determinations about what can and can not be exported.  Checks and balances exist to ensure that it doesn't (though of course it can happen).  This is as it should be, because regulatory blackmail by governmental organizations is generally a very bad thing.  So it does not look like Starlink is at the mercy of ITAR or EAR or any of the other export regulations.

As for "dual use", ITAR clearly states that if the commodity is generally and legally available as a good or service to the private sector then it is not Specially Designated (i.e. subject to ITAR or EAR).  Cell and Internet communications easily pass that exemption standard.  I'd be surprised if Starlink didn't secure a Commodity Jurisdiction determination ahead of time, which is the government's way of officially recognizing or rejecting a case for "dual use".

The fact that anybody outside the US can purchase Starlink access pretty clearly indicates that it is not considered covered under arms export regulations. 

In any case, the US government is footing the bill for Ukraine's use of Starlink and has to either put up with Musk arbitrarily changing/enforcing the "terms of service" or they can stop paying and Starlink will go dark over Ukraine.  Considering there's no alternative to Starlink, the US gov't has little leverage if Musk is set on pursuing a personal agenda over a business one.

As JonS said, loss of control is a big risk of outsourcing.  Musk is making that point abundantly clear.

Steve

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have read through most of ITAR and the law does not allow for arbitrary and discriminatory determinations about what can and can not be exported.  Checks and balances exist to ensure that it doesn't (though of course it can happen).  This is as it should be, because regulatory blackmail by governmental organizations is generally a very bad thing.  So it does not look like Starlink is at the mercy of ITAR or EAR or any of the other export regulations.

As for "dual use", ITAR is clearly stated that if the commodity is legally available as a good or service to the private sector then it is not Specially Designated.  Cell and Internet communications easily pass that exemption standard.  I'd be surprised if Starlink didn't secure a Commodity Jurisdiction determination ahead of time, which is the government's way of officially recognizing or rejecting a case for "dual use".

The fact that anybody outside the US can purchase Starlink pretty clearly indicates that it is not considered covered under arms export regulations. 

In any case, the US government is footing the bill for Ukraine's use of Starlink and has to either put up with Musk arbitrarily changing/enforcing the "terms of service" or they can stop paying and Starlink will go dark over Ukraine.  Considering there's no alternative to Starlink, the US gov't has little leverage if Musk is set on pursuing a personal agenda over a business one.

As JonS said, loss of control is a big risk of outsourcing.  Musk is making that point abundantly clear.

Steve

The base stations don't have anything special about them - receiver dishes aren't a big deal.  The satellites and launch vehicles are the ITAR restricted part.  The restrictions are generally well defined, but they can also be updated pretty easily if the government decides something is a risk, and the government can rapidly change what you can export to where.  The switch of everything that goes to space falling under ITAR was very abrupt a few decades ago and had a huge impact on US satellite sales.  I had collaborations that were affected when that happened, and I've seen a few cases where people's lives were messed up by export investigations even when they were ultimately cleared.

[Kinophile]

Archers and HIMARS together. Now there's a murderous combination... 

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1686326279245611009?t=2yjU29-oeeUUqtdKupGnqA&s=19

[Phil003]

8 hours ago, Teufel said:

Don’t even know what to caption this, fascists would be complimenting.

 

I really don't want to defend the behavior of my country in general (I am a Hungarian), but in this case I see no sufficient evidence behind this claim. So what seems to be true is that there was some kind of conflict with Hungarian authorities when the video was recorded, because somebody in the background keeps saying in Hungarian 'put the phone away'. The words he is using indicates that he is perhaps a bit tense, but he does not sound especially aggressive or threatening. Also the incident was supposed to happen on the 26th, but there is no mention of it in the Hungarian independent media. Anyway, a friend of mine now forwarded the link to this tweet to one of the independent news outlets in Hungary, so perhaps they will have a look to clarify what really happened.

[Carolus]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'd like to see a source about this one before I buy into it.

Steve

https://index.hu/kulfold/2023/07/30/ukrajna-magyarorszag-hatar-atkeles-bosznia-hercegovina-verseny-beregsurany/

The original sources seem to be facebook posts from the groups childcare worker and repetitions of the claim by Melnyk, the former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany (who is known to be a bit of a hotheaded man sometimes).

The attached clip seems a bit bizarre. Don't know why a group of children would spontanously start singing a national anthem, or in response to border guards searching a vehicle - usually children tend to just wait silently when adults scream at them or something.

Apparently the group was sent back when a Hungarian border guard found a medical tourniquet in a bag (they searched all bags, which is also a bit unusual when the equivalent of a schoolclass tries to cross a border).

Edited August 2, 2023 by Carolus