How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

So I guess the main question is, does Ukraine have the ability to use deep maneuver and penetration into the enemy rear?

My answer is probably no. That means Kharkov was a unique one off enabled by extreme Russian inability or lack of foresight to reinforce the lines there. The fact that Ukraine was unable to extend the push further means Ukraine's reserves were not enough, or Russia's reserves were enough to stop their advance.

I think for now Ukraine is limited to engaging in moving town by town, attriting Russia long range and careful local pushes.

Nothing like Kharkov, Gulf War, more like WWI.

Long before this offensive started several of us here, myself included, predicted this summer's offensive would be more like Kherson than Kharkiv.  And so far that is playing out.  However, Kherson did eventually collapse and Ukraine was able to secure a large amount of terrain very quickly.

The thing that is thwarting Ukraine's deep maneuver potential are thick minefields and sufficiently dense Russian defenders.  Ukraine appears to be doing a good job of degrading those defenders, which in turn leads to more possibilities to get through the minefields.

The way things are headed we might soon come upon a situation where a sector or two has insufficient defenders manning insufficient fixed defenses (in particular minefields).  And as just discussed above, not much in the way of successive lines of defense.  When this happens (and for me it is just a matter of time) there won't be much to stop Ukraine from pushing through.  Air power will not be able to compensate.

Remember, the KA-52 and Lancet victories racked up so far have all been combined with thick minefields, ATGMs, infantry, and armor (when counter attacking).  It's much harder for KA-52s to shoot fish if they are no longer in a barrel but a fast flowing river.

Steve

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Remember, the KA-52 and Lancet victories racked up so far have all been combined with thick minefields, ATGMs, infantry, and armor (when counter attacking).  It's much harder for KA-52s to shoot fish if they are no longer in a barrel but a fast flowing river.

Also a relatively small force of KA-52s is experiencing ongoing attrition, and and most of the direct combat losses seem to kill the pilots, too. That is why a full bird Colonel was flying a front line mission, there wasn't anybody half that competent left to send. Russia really is on the verge of a situation where it could run out nearly everything on some important piece of the line. And if Ukraine breaks out of the mine belts it will be hard to stop them.

Edited July 29, 2023 by dan/california

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Therefore, I think it is quite likely that the MLR is of lower quality overall than the forward most positions.  If the forward positions are 80% good and 20% crap, then I'd say the MLR is probably more like 50% good an 50% crap and the third line 20% good and 80% crap.

But where is the MLR? If that was known it could be defeated in detail by a western equipped and trained ground force regardless of crap vs good. Right?

While we think in terms of fortified lines of minefields and trenches, those could be an elusion and the MLR much more amorphous now that the UA is in the teeth of the RA defenses (on narrow frontages) set up in ambush positions along predictable lines of advance. Don't forget, friendly fire encountered due to FOW once into those defenses can stall forward progress. Not to mention trying to save causalities. 

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But where is the MLR? If that was known it could be defeated in detail by a western equipped and trained ground force regardless of crap vs good. Right?

While we think in terms of fortified lines of minefields and trenches, those could be an elusion and the MLR much more amorphous now that the UA is in the teeth of the RA defenses (on narrow frontages) set up in ambush positions along predictable lines of advance. Don't forget, friendly fire encountered due to FOW once into those defenses can stall forward progress. Not to mention trying to save causalities. 

The reason the fighting in the south is so much harder than the fighting around Bakmuht is the mines. The Russians have laid a stupefying quantity of them, but not an infinite amount. Once the Ukrainians get past the primary mine belts this thing is going to move along. Also the 155 cluster munitions just got there. Now fI ully agree with the next thing you are going to say, they should have been there a year ago. But whether it is effectiveness, or just having enough ammo, the Russians are starting to SUFFER. Unlike the Ukrainians they have no idea why they are there, that will tell in the end.

Edited July 29, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But where is the MLR? If that was known it could be defeated in detail by a western equipped and trained ground force regardless of crap vs good. Right?

While we think in terms of fortified lines of minefields and trenches, those could be an elusion and the MLR much more amorphous now that the UA is in the teeth of the RA defenses (on narrow frontages) set up in ambush positions along predictable lines of advance. Don't forget, friendly fire encountered due to FOW once into those defenses can stall forward progress. Not to mention trying to save causalities. 

Russia has been fighting according to traditional doctrine, which goes back well into the Soviet days.  IIRC the forward positions are about 10km in front of the MLR.  The concept is that the forward positions are designed to attrit and constrict the attacker so that whatever hits the MLR is damaged and narrowly focused, or best case scenario not much gets to the MLR at all.

Russia has so far not shown much skill at fighting any sort of maneuver battle other than operational disengagement.  I don't think it has the sort of quality and motivated forces remaining to conduct meaningful fighting retreats.  Especially because units tasked with doing this are often going to be on their own with a very high risk of being cut off. See previous comments I made about Russian forces showing absolutely no willingness to risk being cut off.

Steve

[kevinkin]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia has been fighting according to traditional doctrine, which goes back well into the Soviet days.  IIRC the forward positions are about 10km in front of the MLR.  The concept is that the forward positions are designed to attrit and constrict the attacker so that whatever hits the MLR is damaged and narrowly focused, or best case scenario not much gets to the MLR at all.

Russia has so far not shown much skill at fighting any sort of maneuver battle other than operational disengagement.  I don't think it has the sort of quality and motivated forces remaining to conduct meaningful fighting retreats.  Especially because units tasked with doing this are often going to be on their own with a very high risk of being cut off. See previous comments I made about Russian forces showing absolutely no willingness to risk being cut off.

Steve

If the UA knows where the Russian MLR is based on doctrine, it should be pulverized. I thought the RA was too stupid to maneuver? Or their static lines are too rigid. Outflanked etc.. We can't have it both ways.  I grant the point that the UA does not have the means to pulverized the MLR or even the forward positions. They don't have the deep strike ability to cut off RA supplies. But that is on the US, not the the UA. Just hoping an army is going to retreat when challenged by an inferior force is not a sustainable plan. We all know soldiers fight more for their squads than their country. Why would the Russian kid not do likewise after basic training and political indoctrination? I think people in the Pentagon think too highly of the RA, while those here think to low. It's somewhere in between and we will have to wait and see. 

[dan/california]

48 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

after basic training

All three days of it, if they were lucky? The disappearing officers, the bad food? Russia has violated every Western tenet of how to build high unit cohesion. The only reason the Russian Army is still in the field is that they have been conditioned since birth to think life is awful, and will probably get worse. To my amazement, and I suspect a great many other peoples,  this does produce an army with some minimal level of functionality. The key word though is minimal, when these units are pushed past there very low ability limits they just melt. And the problem gets worse every day. Both armies may be declining in manpower quality as the pre war forces are attrited, but the problem is far worse for the Russians, and has been since they got the cream of their pre war "professional" army slaughtered around Kyiv due to the worst plan in military history. And the Russian state and army is still being run by the people who made that plan. Indeed they seem to be purging the competent ones as political threats.

[Claymore]

Question: Regarding the standoff problems that may/may not exist with the Ka52M + LMUR.

Does Brimstone have an anti-helicopter capability? Ground launched it would seem to have the range and it's "wack anything in this area" millimeter radar FAF targeting mode might be of some use. As a prerequisite, you'd need the intel to identify an Alligator at bearing/distance, but the optics provided on the Brads (and others) might do that.

[poesel]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

The only reason the Russian Army is still in the field is that they have been conditioned since birth to think life is awful, and will probably get worse.

Russian proverb: everything is getting better. Today may not be as good as yesterday, but it is better than tomorrow!

[poesel]

Question: how fast could the Russians lay new minefields? To be more precise: could the Russians 'just' built a new minefield behind a UA breakthrough (or suspected breakthrough)?

Question2: how often can they do that? Is the number of Russian mines one of those infinities?

Edited July 29, 2023 by poesel
typo

[poesel]

Old Dutch army video about crossing tank ditches:

Thread about tank ditches and how to make them:

Same thread but unrolled for non-twitterers:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1684859272276967428.html

 

[Kraft]

47 minutes ago, poesel said:

Question: how fat could the Russian lay new minefields? To be more precise: could the Russians 'just' built a new minefield behind a UA breakthrough (or suspected breakthrough)?

Question2: how often can they do that? Is the number of Russian mines one of those infinities?

Q2 approx. Infinite, easy to refill, stockpiles 

How long it takes to lay new minebelts there are surely better informed people here to answer.

Just keep in mind, from what Ive seen, just throwing them on the ground is often good enough.. they dont even need to be digged in to become an obstacle tanks explode in.

Grinding through strafmobik trenches & minefields under peer level artillery, even without a Ka52 above, is not something that will continue to even Tokmak and a dozen F-16s wont change that.

I think long term, there can only be realistic progress towards the coast if the Russian army is soo attritted it cant plug the holes fast enough. Hopefully we are progressing towards that right now.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Teufel said:

the forces liberating the settlement were a combination of the elite force and the national guard, and according to reports from first-hand, the cooperation worked flawlessly. This shows the quality of our national guard forces, especially considering WHERE and HOW we started training those national guard soldiers in February 2022. We didn't even have uniforms for them and training took place indoors in basements and unfinished skyscrapers. We were able to move outdoors only in April 2022 and under very primitive conditions.

This guy has confused National Guard and Territorial Defense. If he meant 7th battalion "Arey" as "national guard/TD", which raised only in Feb 2022, then he is wrong. "Arey" exists since 2015 and had enough combat experience and motivation. This battalion of Ukrainian Volunteer Army just was included to 129th Territorial Defense brigade, but by quality it was on a level better. And probably even equal to forces of 35th marines brigade. 

BTW term "elite" in current terms is conditional, except SOF troops. Yes, marines and air-assuult units have more strict selection of conscripts (but not always and you can meet 45+ man with health problems as air-assault rifleman), they have more better weapon (but also not always) and better training. But in average they often just slightly better than usual mech.unit. Under artillery fire all are equal.  

[Haiduk]

I don't know how it reliable, but this Polish source claimed over 100 Wagner merceneries were moved to Suwalki direction.

 

[Haiduk]

Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed past night they conducted diversion in Kazachya Bay of Sevastopol, blowing up temporary field ammo dump of 810th naval infantry brigade. Crimean "authorrities" claims this was "night trainig shooting"

Also there are rumors UKR again conducted a strike on Chonhar car bridge and now it closed. There is unknown it was hit or not.  

[Billy Ringo]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/27/republicans-support-ukraine-war/

Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion more than a year ago, the anti-Ukraine right has been working to convince the American people and the Republican Party that it is not in the United States’ interest to support Ukraine. They are failing miserably.

The House recently held its first votes on aid to Ukraine since the GOP took over in January — and on vote after vote, the vast majority of Republicans repeatedly voted to beat back amendments proposed by the anti-Ukraine faction.

I'm still up on my hill, US support for Ukraine is solid.

[cesmonkey]

Has anyone heard much lately about the use of Switchblade drones by Ukraine, probably the larger model 600?

Russian telegram channels have mentioned them in the last week.
https://t.me/rybar/50204

Quote

To the northeast of Urozhaynoye, the enemy concentrated five groups of the Yug MTR center and a reconnaissance company of the 38th detachment with Switchblade kamikaze drones and electronic warfare stations. 

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2812

Quote

Thanks to imported weapons, it can deliver clear blows to our artillery and armored vehicles, without which the infantry cannot resist .... Believe me, not a single efpivi-drone, molded by us on the knee, can compete with the switchblade ... Therefore, it still retains in a number of issues advantage due to Western supplies. 

 

[Haiduk]

38 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Has anyone heard much lately about the use of Switchblade drones by Ukraine, probably the larger model 600?

Russian telegram channels have mentioned them in the last week.
https://t.me/rybar/50204

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2812

 

Hm... I never heard about these units. I'm no clue what is MTR "Yug" and 38th detachment. Maybe they meant ELINT center "Pivden' " (rus. Yug, eng. South). 

600th use only by SOF, as I know and they not often issue own work. By feedback 600th are exellent weapon, unlike 300th, which by words of operators had very poor TV picture quality, unstable control and weak explosion effect, because of "antiterror" feature of warhead, which created directed explosion to eliminate the target, reducing of collateral damage around. But terms of conventional warfare demanded exactly "collateral damage around". Alas, we had few 600th to make the same mass effect like Lancets.

Though, even Russians say, depending on frontline conditions only about 30 % of Lancet launches finish themselves with attack at the target. All other launches  are unsuccessful due to operator can't find a target and drone crashes after out of fuel or Ukrianians shot down it (more rarely, but it happens). Mashovets in own last post wrote Russian Lancet units (also from composition of Spetsnaz) try to support own Lancet stockpile in 20-25 drones, using 5-7 for a day (during intetse fighting this number can rise up to 15)

Edited July 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[akd]

Another Terra Unit video from the Bakhmut front illustrating that drone bombers are hardly the wunderwaffe that large amounts of brief, edited clips might make them appear:

 

[cesmonkey]

Big claim:

Quote

Russian air defense shot down 12 Storm Shadow missiles that attacked the railway to Crimea. "All the missiles were shot down by our air defense. In one place, the fallen fragments of expensive foreign weapons slightly damaged the lineman's booth and the contact line," the governor said. 

https://twitter.com/Black_Makler/status/1685291881683619840

 

[kevinkin]

Tangible evidence that Russia is cracking up?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country.

The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill.

As the proposal is currently framed, the new military companies would be armed and run by governors, but would obtain weapons from the Russian Ministry of Defense. They would ostensibly operate at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

[akd]

30 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Tangible evidence that Russia is cracking up?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country.

The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill.

As the proposal is currently framed, the new military companies would be armed and run by governors, but would obtain weapons from the Russian Ministry of Defense. They would ostensibly operate at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Yes, yes, arm the regional governors…

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Big claim:

Governor-collaborator Saldo? A claim of the clown %) Saldo each time is "shooting down" dozens of HIMARS, SS, Hrim-2. According to Russian milblogger for all time of SS launches, AD could shot down one missile and one more is crashed. 

Original text with a picture of Syvash railroad bridge, next to west from Chonhar. According to reports of Russian citizens, driving to Crimea through Chonhar car bridge, it was closed after the strike. No photos of this bridge to this time

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Tangible evidence that Russia is cracking up?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-dystopian-plan-post-mutiny-024538791.html

Tucked away in a new law aimed at raising the draft age for Russia’s military are several mysterious amendments that are designed to create new armed groups or paramilitary companies throughout the country.

The military companies, also known as “special enterprises,” would be there to maintain public order, protect Russia’s borders, and counter sabotage efforts, according to the text of the bill.

As the proposal is currently framed, the new military companies would be armed and run by governors, but would obtain weapons from the Russian Ministry of Defense. They would ostensibly operate at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Oh for sure that's not a good sign of regime stability.  It's pretty clear that the intention is to give governors, who for the most part are Putin's lapdogs, lethally armed thugs under their direct control.  When a repressive regime feels the need to create yet another parallel armed organization, it's clearly a response to a lack of confidence that the other armed organizations will remain loyal to Putin specifically.

This is now the 5th official armed organization within Russian territory, not counting PMCs.  There's the MoD's regular military forces, MVD (regular police), FSB, and Rosgvardiya.  In theory they all have individually defined roles, but since this is a totalitarian state there is a lot of blurry lines by design and through natural outcomes.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Governor-collaborator Saldo? A claim of the clown %) Saldo each time is "shooting down" dozens of HIMARS, SS, Hrim-2. According to Russian milblogger for all time of SS launches, AD could shot down one missile and one more is crashed.

Exactly.  It is amazing how many times Russians have said their defenses have gone from low percentage kill rates to 100% overnight.  It's almost as if they are lying

Quote

Original text with a picture of Chonhar railroad bridge. According to reports of Russian citizens, driving to Crimea through Chonhar car bridge (it lays parallel to railroad), the car bridge was closed after the strike. No photos of this bridge to this time

Couldn't happen to a nicer bridge.

Steve