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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Russian sources claimed two maritime drones tried to attack patrol corvette "Sergey Kotov" (pr.22160, comissioned in July 2022) in south-western part of Black Sea. Reportedly both were detsroyed on approach.

On the photo "Sergey Kotov" ship

Патрульный корабль "Сергей Котов" выходит в море

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19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian northern sub-group of northern groupment was activated too, I will redraw the map today after work.

Reluctant to bring up military history in a situation that's unfolding live before us, but are we seeing Russian counter offensive taking advantage of the UA being held up by minefields and fortifications sort of like (dare I say it) Kursk? Not that the RA has the mass and mobility to repeat 1943. Not that the lines are shaped the same way and the weapons are as deadly. But more to do with the Russian mind set. Relying on the past and doing what they think than can pull off from an operational and cultural POV.  Some general once summed it up as "grab them by the nose and kick them in the butt". 

There I go again with a historical reference. But like Kursk, maybe the UA offensive in the southern direction is too predictable. Russia fortifies that half of the line (approximately) and leaves the northern portion open to some type of war of movement. 

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5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But like Kursk, maybe the UA offensive in the southern direction is too predictable. Russia fortifies that half of the line (approximately) and leaves the northern portion open to some type of war of movement. 

Fortunately, this was also predictable. The Ukrainians have been openly talking about the Russian reserves massing in the North-West since before the Zaporozhe offensive started, and have their own reserves nearby and unused, unlike the Germans at Kursk. AFAIK the risk is less of Russian actually mounting a successful counter-counterattack a la Operation Kutuzov, than of Ukrainians having to commit the reserve to stop them and becoming unable to proceed further in the South, with each side blocking the other's attacks in perfect symmetry.

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I agree. The RA is conducting spoiling attacks on a large scale. They don't threaten to conquer Ukraine in the short term, but they might be aimed to maintain the status quo territorially while wearing down Ukraine and the west's resolve in the long term. I remember from some book that Rommel chimed in on the eastern front while in hospital, he recommended the mass use of mines to defend the Dniper position after Kursk backed up by mobile reserves. Very North Africa like. I think he also wanted to sue for some sort of peace before Normandy and with the Dniper line secure. He had more ideas that would have made little difference. 

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That game has been discussed in one of the general forums here. It's 100% WW2 with no close air support or indirect fire. While fun to play, Black Sea is much closer even though it simulates circa 2017. I was thinking there might be a board game out there I missed. Pretty much up on all the PC ones. 

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The Chieftain's comments and some slides from "the conference on armored vehicle design" he attended. Some big hitters presenting

surprisingly interesting and informative video. Also on Ukraine-related matters:

some top-pick screenshots (Especially Ukraine related):

Ukrainian colonel presentation (some comment picks):
- Ukraine replacing lots of donated equipment antennas with anti-jam variants
- Old tanks like T-55 ext. have their place and are effective at what they do
- Ukraine battle management system is a combination of "Delta" a browser-based battle management system similar to US systems in combination with Discord servers.

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Edited by The_MonkeyKing
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https://www.newsweek.com/2023/07/21/exclusive-cias-blind-spot-about-ukraine-war-1810355.html

 

Newsweek article on the CIA's involvement with Ukraine/Russia, pre-invasion until current.  Reads a little like a CIA infomercial but a few interesting nuggets, pre-war agreements with Putin regarding rules of engagement/delivery of certain types of weapons, US on the ground involvement in Ukraine (CIA "black-ops" yes, US military no), states bluntly that Ukraine blew up the pipeline. 

A lot of the info, IMO, is questionable and certainly slanted towards CIO self-promotion.

 

Edited by Billy Ringo
edt
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UKR SOF show strikes on Russian targets, which were spotted by them

There is rare and valuable equipmnent on the video:

1. EW Triada-2S (satellite communication channels jamming)

2. MLRS Grad

3. Early warning surviellance radar P-18

4. Four Russian BMPs, being hit by one shell

5. D-30 howitzer

6. Survielance optical system on the mast

7. EW/ELINT Leer-2 (tactical level, ELINT+supression/hijacking)  

 

Edited by Haiduk
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The map of visually geolocated destroyed artillery/MLRS/air defense assets since starting of UKR offensive from 9th of May. Russians, commenting this, complain that Russian industry is unable to replenish quickly such losses in artillery, when UKR will give replenishments for destroyed armor and soon can achieve 1:10 rate of losses in artillery and this threaten to catastrofical consequences for motorized troops

Image

Edited by Haiduk
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Quote

 

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/07/armys-new-training-simulators-track-2024-delivery/388797/

Trainees were so efficient at using simulated drones to coordinate artillery strikes that one soldier had to tell them to “leave something for the tanks to shoot at.”

 

The U.S.army is paying some attention to what is happening in Ukraine, at least. Hopefully they are planning to buy the drones they are simulating

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Russians have deployed own Orion UCAV complex of 3 planes on Taganrof airfield. Orions had been using on in first several months, but later they sudenly disappered. Orix has 5 visually confirmed shot down Orions in own database. Before the war Russia had about 30 Orions. Probably they encoutered with a prob;ems in manufacturing of guided weponn for it

  

 

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3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

That game has been discussed in one of the general forums here. It's 100% WW2 with no close air support or indirect fire. While fun to play, Black Sea is much closer even though it simulates circa 2017. I was thinking there might be a board game out there I missed. Pretty much up on all the PC ones. 

Main Battle Tank from GMT games might fit what you are looking for. Squad and single vehicles up to 1987 with all of the major players. The base game has only Soviet vs the US but there are expansions that include West Germany, UK and Canada.

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26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

GUR Assesment of curernt Russian missile stocks

Image

russians are producing missiles and they aren't using them again, so these estimates will become outdated next month. They will have enough to strike energy system this autumn is what really matters.

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21 minutes ago, kraze said:

russians are producing missiles and they aren't using them again, so these estimates will become outdated next month. They will have enough to strike energy system this autumn is what really matters.

Next month GUR will issue next estimation ) It's just ineteresting to compare level of stockpiles with pre-war number (last digits after "/")

About production of missiles and other - it's ridiculous, but in present time the biggest supplier of electronic componemts for Russia became... Maldives. Several Maldivian companies, registered in UK bypassing sanctions and supply US electronics to Russia.

According to investigation of missiles and UAV fragments, about 80 % of electronic components were produced in USA. Other main manufacturers - Switzerland, France, Germany 

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Robotyne area.

Soldiers of 78th Special purpose regiment "Hertz' " of Air-assault Command dismount from own Oshkosh M-ATV to advance to treeline. Two Bradleys of 47th mech.brigade covers them and shoot at the enemy

Reportedly Russians yesterday conducted several counter-attack at our flanks and forced our troops slightly withdraw from outskirts of Robotyne. 

Edited by Haiduk
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3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The Chieftain's comments and some slides from "the conference on armored vehicle design" he attended. Some big hitters presenting

surprisingly interesting and informative video. Also on Ukraine-related matters:

some top-pick screenshots (Especially Ukraine related):

Ukrainian colonel presentation (some comment picks):
- Ukraine replacing lots of donated equipment antennas with anti-jam variants
- Old tanks like T-55 ext. have their place and are effective at what they do
- Ukraine battle management system is a combination of "Delta" a browser-based battle management system similar to US systems in combination with Discord servers.

image.png.64f19a7c27469d2c3d21eefbc411b168.png

image.png.363f049dbdbb46e35d83e900f7cdcfa0.png

 

image.png.d167e8d7a6f257d1681acaee15b068e5.png

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image.png.9b37576292c04ec8fcfd69a6496db199.png

image.thumb.png.f27ae6689eb31e8768e1a50a7f66f1e0.png

This worth your time to watch from start to finish. At least 85% of it has probably been discussed in the thread somewhere, at some level of detail, but this pulls a great many things together in a VERY neat and tidy package.

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Russian Ka-52 was shot down today by marines of 38th brigade on Donbas. 

Russian TG Fighterbomber confirmed the loss of helicopter along with the crew. Interesting he and TG Helicopterpilot rejected all Ukrainaian claims about six Ka-52, which allegedly were shot down on the southern front, since offensive is started.

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UPD. According Russian sources, Ka-52 was shot down with three missiles, launched from Stormer (probably this exaggregation as Stormer hit the target with three kinetic "darts"). In composition of the crew was very competent and skilled commander in enough high rank. I think, we will know soon who it was.

Edited by Haiduk
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Full yesterday video of elimination of two Russian squads of 83rd air-assault brigade in southern part of Klishchhivka. First squad at the beginning of video already almost wiped out, BMD-2 as "taxi" disembarks next group and runs away. Next probably UKR mortars shell Russians from the heights near the village and since some time the second squad already dead. 

Today Russian bloggers told about Klishchiivka has been fallen since mobics abandoned own positions. But UKR sources didn't confirm that. Later one Russians TG wrote, Russian troops organized counter attacks with VDV and BARS, so battle is continuing. UKR TG says trooppers of 80th air-assault brigade mop up the village, but havn't full control over it yet. He also wrote Russians troops in the village are in desperate situation, they suffered terrible losses, but still fiercely fight and reject to surrender.

UKR troops also had success near Andriivka village next to south from Klishchiivka, seizing large strongpoint west of it. 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR SOF show strikes on Russian targets, which were spotted by them

There is rare and valuable equipmnent on the video:

1. EW Triada-2S (satellite communication channels jamming)

2. MLRS Grad

3. Early warning surviellance radar P-18

4. Four Russian BMPs, being hit by one shell

5. D-30 howitzer

6. Survielance optical system on the mast

7. EW/ELINT Leer-2 (tactical level, ELINT+supression/hijacking)  

 

It makes so much sense to have special forces tasked with hunting down and destroying high value battlefield assets.  The average drone operator won't have access to the array of intel that is necessary to narrow down the search for these types of targets.

Steve

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This morning two Storm Shadow missiles hit old abandoned farms near Krasna Poliana village in Crimea. This is near previous strikes. Locals told they heard explosions and have seen ambulances, driving to place of explosions each 20 minutes. No videos and detailed information. Probably next vehicles stand or repair base was hit. 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It makes so much sense to have special forces tasked with hunting down and destroying high value battlefield assets.  The average drone operator won't have access to the array of intel that is necessary to narrow down the search for these types of targets.

Steve

Due to quality of the video and zoom, they have not usual Mavic as "average drone operator" :)

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