How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Would this qualify as chemical warfare?

Better than butyric acid...

[kevinkin]

23 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

More tanks, more IFVs, more artillery, is a fine apology gift for no NATO membership.  

Without NATO airpower, it's difficult to find a assertive way forward into the operational depth of the Russian defense. Penny packets of AFVs are just replacements. Ammo shipments are just replacements. The UA would have to stop offensive ops now and husband those donations for a later date. But that is unacceptable from a pubic image POV. It's a horrible dilemma. Putin is loving this. If Ukraine has something unconventional and devious up it's sleeve, I can't wait.  

[kimbosbread]

I gotta imagine the unrotated troops are doing pretty badly, after enjoying spring rains in their garbage boots + equipment, and now summer heat.

Unrelated, would releasing a bunch of cadaverine in Russian cities or bases during summer heat be considered a war crime?

[Haiduk]

The third strike in Berdiansk for today.

Also reportedly two explosions on outskirts of Skadovsk - seashore town of Kherson oblast.

[Haiduk]

New defense line of "dragon teeth" (dead Wagners gravestones) in Krasnodar region %) 

 

[Haiduk]

 

[Grossman]

45 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Regarding NATO, obviously no membership yet or even concretely, but the next best thing is more weapons. Macron has announced France is providing long range missiles. If the EU could get their idiocy regarding ammo production resolved, that would be great. More tanks, more IFVs, more artillery, is a fine apology gift for no NATO membership.  

At the moment, without a Russian collapse it look like a protracted conflict where a negotiation is impossible and the the arms build upon the UKR side will gradually shift the balance in UKR's favour. Next of course is the long range Himars and F-16's. Meanwhile pressures grow within Russia. The EU and the West increasingly see this war as a fight to free Ukraine from Russian occupation and establish the EU border along the UKR-Belarus border with Russia. It may take some time; this is where we are headed

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

If true, a good signal for UAF, specifically in the Tokmak axis.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1678761664488042496?s=20

Gerasimov removed the commander of the 58th army (Orikhiv area), Major General Popov, because he threaten to raise the issue of troops rotation in his area of command directly with Putin. He was sent directly to the frontlines according to this report. His troops are in the area of the 47th Ukrainian brigade, which operates Bradley IFV and Leopard tanks. The Russians are tired, they will break, it is a matter of time.

And here we get to the $million question: just how brittle is RU army?  Of course some of the army is good.  But how much of the southern front is brittle???  RU keeps losing supplies, commanders and entire command units, but it also keeps hanging on.

[Beleg85]

17 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

On his telegram channel, he provides a link to his Facebook account:
https://www.facebook.com/pashtetof

That's what I loked for, thanks mate.

11 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Today, in the south, in the Berdyansk region, the Russian Lieutenant General Tsokov Oleg Yuriyovych was eliminated reportedly.

Indeed, his death seem to be confirmed now, unlike several others who miraciloulsly risen from the dead after some time, like Delimkhanov. This is pretty big fish, apart from being 144 Division commander Sokov was one of deputy commanders of Southern Military District. Reportedly it was Storm Shadow that fall on his head on Black Sea resort. Very expensive death as for Russian military, he could be proud...

[Oh sorry, partially crossposted with Haiduk]

Resort seem(ed) like nice place to stay:

https://twitter.com/BaltazarKajzer/status/1678827006232756224/photo/1

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

New defense line of "dragon teeth" (dead Wagners gravestones) in Krasnodar region %) 

Joke during lifetime, joke after death. Feel a little pitty of them, for a short moment.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[cesmonkey]

Rybar reports on a post by another milblogger claiming that Ukraine fired cluster munitions via HIMARS near Tokmok, if I'm understanding the post correctly.

Take it with a grain of salt.

https://t.me/rybar/49590
 

Quote

Ukrainian formations fired cluster munitions at Tokmak in the Zaporozhye region : hits fell on the poultry farm area and on the outskirts of the city in the direction of Vasilyevka .

According to Revenge of Goodwill @Mestb_Dobroj_Voli , the Armed Forces of Ukraine first launched one package, then waited until the rubble was cleared, and then struck again.

At the moment, there is no information about the victims and destruction. In the afternoon, the enemy fired at the settlement from the MLRS HIMARS.
#Zaporozhye #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar

https://t.me/Mestb_Dobroj_Voli/7004

Quote

Several cluster missiles flew over Tokmok, first they discharged the air defense, then launched the cluster ones.
The tactics are the same, first they launched one package, then they waited until the rubble was sorted out, and launched the second package.

 

[Haiduk]

Damn. It's very bad. Chief sergeant of 47h mech.brigade Valeriy Markus blamed command of brigade in incompetence and wrote a report to move him on lower duty of squad leader. 

This is real scandal, because Markus is a "face", "frontman" and "PR-manager" of this brigade, who was one of founders of this unit as far as it was 47th separate rifle battalion. He was in the list of Forbes Ukriane among most influent military of Ukraine, he is founder of charity fund "Markus Fundation"

In order to you could understand why this is bad, I have to tell about Valeriy Markus and history of 47th mech. brigade "Magura". 

29 y.o. Markus is very popular in Ukriane - he fought in ATO from 2014 to 2016, he passed a hell of Shakhtarsk battle with 25th airborne brigade. His popularity came to him via his Facebook - his posts were always true and wise. He got heavy shell-shock and was forced to retire from service. He fought with heavy PTSR via sport and travelling and became a classical "self-made man". He wrote a book about his life and war "The traces on the road" (as Valeriy Ananyev - later he changed his surname), which became bestseller and beat up circullations of all modern Ukrainian writers, causing sometime envy and hatred from their side to the "upstart"

Markus is one of servicemen, who promoted a question of strong sergeant corps establishment in Ukrainian army as an earnest of effectiveness. Despite he was retired, his popularity allowed him to have aquintances with influent military and civill volunteers, which promoted the same thoughts. In 2023 his open lection to sergeants of 47th brigade in Youtube got 1 million reviews.   

When the war began, Markus returned to army and some time served as recon in 30th mech.brigade. In April 2022 high command (Markus likely has good relationships with Zaluzhnyi) offered to him to participate in forming of 47th separate rifle battalion, where he got a duty chief sergeant of battalion. The unit fought, defending Svitlodarsk, after Russians brokethrough Popasna front. 

Ideas of Markus and some officers about creation of modern effective large unit, free from old Soviet s...t, found the response of High Command and in Autumn there was announced about forming of 47th assault regiment (since Novenber 2022 - brigade). According to idea of Markus and his like-minded people, the unit should have been free from сasual people. Only competitive selection, only volunteers with leadership, motivation, readiness to learn and fight. Enlistment points of regiment were gathering many people, many servicemen wanted to transfer to "Markus brigade". But... something go wrong as later wrote Markus himself. Either General Staff, or MoD decided by unknown reasons to finish this "experiment" and to brigade were directed enough officers and personnel, which didn't  match to initial requirements. Yes, most command of brigade almost all was taken from famous 93rd mech.brigade. Brigade commander lt.colonel Oleksandr Sak "Staff" is a youngest brigade commander in UKR army - he is 28 y.o. He fought since 2015, has four injuries. Thanking to Markus PR the brigade became so popular like Azov or 3rd assault brigade. All expected a miracle from the unit, which have been training more that 8 months and got modern equipment. 

And now THIS. Translation of Markus report. 

Tweet: 

I categorically don't agree with decisions about usage and development of 47th brigade. We were not allowed to build a muilitary unit, according to our values, which we declared at the beginning of forming. I havn't more any opportunity to influence on situation or change it. I no longer consider my tenure of chief sergeant to be expedient. I can't abandon my people, so I go on lower duty by my own will in order to be closer to them on the battlefield. 

Report:

 

Because of systematical humilitation of brigade's sergeant corps work, of misunderstanding by brigade command an importance of fighters moral spirit for effective tasks acomplishing, because of absence of punishment for <self-censored> and incompetence of persons of highest officer corps of brigade, rejection and sabotaging traditions and mythiology of brigade on all levels of officers chain, because of absence of the will of brigade's command to protect interests of brigade in front of higher command, I ask you to transfer me, chief sergeant of 47th brigade Valeriy Markus to lower duty of combat vehicle commander - the leader of mech.squad of mech.platoon of x mech.comapny of  x mech.battalion.

Also valid reporting, that by my opinion, the deputy commander of 47th brigade major Ivan Shalamaha is immorale degenerate, being with which in one team humilitates my honor and dignity. 

 

 

It's will be very interesting about reaction of Zaluzhnyi. Because in Ukrianian social network already holywar is setting on fire...

Edited July 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

14 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Rybar reports on a post by another milblogger claiming that Ukraine fired cluster munitions via HIMARS near Tokmok, if I'm understanding the post correctly.

Take it with a grain of salt.

https://t.me/rybar/49590
 

https://t.me/Mestb_Dobroj_Voli/7004

 

I don´t think US logistics is that quick. I know they are quick, but that quick? Not so friendly fire?

[BlackMoria]

16 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Take it with a grain of salt.

Serious grain of salt.  My understanding is the cluster ammo is 155 rounds.   Could be wrong on that.  And the Ukr have better things to target than poultry. 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I don´t think US logistics is that quick. I know they are quick, but that quick? Not so friendly fire?

He obviously meant GMLRS M30A1 with tungsten balls. 

[DesertFox]

Just now, Haiduk said:

He obviously meant GMLRS M30A1 with tungsten balls. 

Yeah could be. Also what Blackmoria wrote. UAF will be given 155mm ammo. Range 30km? Hard to reach Tokmak with that.

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

And the Ukr have better things to target than poultry. 

No more farms in close combat zone. All these objects suitable for personnel and vehciles deployment, positions establishing etc. 

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile UKR bridgehad on left bank of Dnipro near Kherson is expanding, due to RUS TG

About last screen - one of our soldiers explained this is secrion of Konka river - important place, where Russians could opportunity to come in or rear with boats. Now they can't.

Also Russians later told UKR moved to left bank on boats under artilelry cover two new groups of 124th TD brigade (of Kherson oblast), they now deployed in Antonivskyi bridge area.

 

[Letter from Prague]

I read somewhere that the way the defensive lines are prepared it seems that Russians are planning retreat to Crimea. I don't know to validate it myself and also it seems there might be no retreat because of the "no step back" orders.

But if the Russians want to retreat to Crimea eventually (and try to keep at least that in their worst case), crossing the river and cutting them off or making that retreat unpleasant (or a massacre) would be a really good move.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.economist.com/1843/2023/06/22/a-ukrainian-sniper-called-lucky-dreams-of-vengeance

since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Lucky has fought at Mariupol and Bakhmut, two of the conflict’s deadliest battles. In Mariupol he endured the siege of the Azovstal steel works. He’s been seriously injured twice and spent time as a prisoner-of-war.

 

I suspect his great grandchildren will hate Russians with a burning passion.

[DesertFox]

He´ll be back...on 5th of August...

 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

He´ll be back...on 5th of August...

 

 

I will note he didn't specify whether that would be in the Donbas.... or Moscow. How the Russian system can stagger on without either Shoigu and Gerasimov, or Prigohzin going out a window is beyond me.

 

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

How the Russian system can stagger on without either Shoigu and Gerasimov, or Prigohzin going out a window is beyond me.

Yeah, we are all witness to a big theatrical play we still don´t understand. Prig will be back on 05/08, Shoigu publically threatens to use cluster ammunition as retaliation that US is sending that to UAF and Gerassimov fires one of his Generals and sents him into the ditches to the front. The clownshow goes on.

[Offshoot]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Mashovets writes, having a picture of 2-3 days ago. Situation is enough dynamic.

Here is a statement of press-service of 3rd assault brigade for today: https://t.me/ab3army/2874

3rd assault brigade knoked out the unit of Russian 83rd air-assault brigade near Bakhmut. Our 2nd assault battalion liberated about 1 km of territory, destroying Russian platoon, one tank, and capturing 10 soldiers. Company strongpoing is captured

I don't know either he wrote about Russian counter-attack near Berkhivka like about current development or that one, happened about week ago. Because yesterday there was issued a video, how Russian artillery fires on Berkhivka village, though UKR TGs told there are only small forward groups of UKR troops in the village. 

Most bad situation, obviously on Kreminna direction. The video issued today (but unknown when in was filmed) shows UKR MLRS shells Russians in northern part of Tors'ke village.

Summary/extra info on the Bakhmut and Berkhivka situation for English speakers - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/paratroopers-of-the-russian-federation-were-captured-in-the-bakhmut-direction/

In the second video they show, I don't think I have ever seen so many troops together at one time out in the open (at the 33 second mark)

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I read somewhere that the way the defensive lines are prepared it seems that Russians are planning retreat to Crimea. I don't know to validate it myself and also it seems there might be no retreat because of the "no step back" orders.

But if the Russians want to retreat to Crimea eventually (and try to keep at least that in their worst case), crossing the river and cutting them off or making that retreat unpleasant (or a massacre) would be a really good move.

I doubt that Russia is actively planning on retreating to Crimea, however I am sure they have planned for that eventuality.

Ages ago when I looked at the various attack scenarios and objectives for Ukraine, it's pretty clear that if Ukraine takes Melitopol that Russia's options for holding anything to the west of it become very difficult.  Since Russia can not accept Ukraine easily rolling into Crimea (that would be a regime ending event on its own, I should think) they have set up significant defenses to make that unlikely.  If they can't hold the Dnepr positions, I expect they will retreat to Crimea and try to hold a north/south line in southern Donetsk.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Damn. It's very bad. Chief sergeant of 47h mech.brigade Valeriy Markus blamed command of brigade in incompetence and wrote a report to move him on lower duty of squad leader. 

This is real scandal, because Markus is a "face", "frontman" and "PR-manager" of this brigade, who was one of founders of this unit as far as it was 47th separate rifle battalion. He was in the list of Forbes Ukriane among most influent military of Ukraine, he is founder of charity fund "Markus Fundation"

In order to you could understand why this is bad, I have to tell about Valeriy Markus and history of 47th mech. brigade "Magura". 

Thank you for that long and informative post.

This is the sort of thing many people have been concerned about.  It is one thing to raise a new force of tens of thousands, its another thing to have that new force be all high quality.  The recalling of older Ukrainian reserve officers probably is an issue generally, but it sounds like it wasn't necessarily a problem with the 47th as the senior leadership came from existing units (by the sounds of it).

It certainly doesn't help that the 47th was given one of the most difficult tasks of the entire counter offensive so far.  Although they have lost a lot of equipment and, likely, men the unit does appear to continue taking ground.  This is a good sign that the unit isn't as bad as Markus believes it to be.  Then again, we don't know how well the 47th might be doing with different leadership in place.

Steve