How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kimbosbread]

Random thought- where are oligarchs getting their private jets serviced? I assume none of them are so poverty they’d use Embraer, so it’d have to be Dassualt or Gulfstream, right?

[dan/california]

I would assume if Grey Zone is posting it, it is at least this bad for the Russians. There is always some chance he is overstating the Russian problems to lobby for more help in this direction. Although that too would be helpful for Ukraine, since the entire point of this phase is to get the Russian reserves committed.

[akd]

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.

 This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...

"The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."

"Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."

"We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."

It is quite possible to regard this particular statement as a simple acknowledgement of the logistics and time lines involved, and utterly furious that it wasn't all started a year ago.

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

 

Palettized de-militarized mobiks? This has to be a fake?

[akd]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Palettized de-militarized mobiks? This has to be a fake?

Indeed.  New meaning to Cargo 200.

[Letter from Prague]

14 minutes ago, poesel said:

North Korea & China also have a border with Russia, so there's nothing to be done about stopping it.

If they cared, they could just repaint the shells and no one would know - except for all those three letter agencies who know it already anyway.

I don't think they would want to hide it. Saying "we're not getting weapons from China / we're not giving weapons to Russia" while openly doing it is a power play - they can lie and laugh in our faces and we'll do nothing about it.

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Indeed.  New meaning to Cargo 200.

OMG!

https://twitter.com/KarinaVinnikova/status/1676277767124525069?s=20

Edited July 4, 2023 by DesertFox

[The_MonkeyKing]

Russia claiming an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Ukraine claiming the opposite

I see this as a real possibility.

• Russia can cause a limited and/or slow-moving accident with enough uncertainty about the cause to give them cover
• This would again be one more huge expensive disaster for post-war Ukraine to deal with. For reference, the Three Mile Island cleanup is forecasted to cost 1.5 billion. That was just one reactor that didn't breach containment. 
• Then Russia would play to get an international intervention that would save the situation. This would require a local ceasefire with the current lines. This would not necessarily work out but still worth hoping for.

 

[Sekai]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

OMG!

https://twitter.com/KarinaVinnikova/status/1676277767124525069?s=20

And I thought I had seen everything. Russians have techniques for degrading the prestige of their beloved soldiers to that of trash.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Russia claiming an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Ukraine claiming the opposite

I see this as a real possibility.

• Russia can cause a limited and/or slow-moving accident with enough uncertainty about the cause to give them cover
• This would again be one more huge expensive disaster for post-war Ukraine to deal with. For reference, the Three Mile Island cleanup is forecasted to cost 1.5 billion. That was just one reactor that didn't breach containment. 
• Then Russia would play to get an international intervention that would save the situation. This would require a local ceasefire with the current lines. This would not necessarily work out but still worth hoping for.

 

It is time for NATO to make the redlines even clearer, and MEAN IT. If anything, happens at the plant, and i do mean anything, Article 5 should be declared, and NATO planes should start killing every Russian soldier in Ukraine. And they should keep dong it until they all are dead or gone. If Russia wants a wider war, give it to them, and sink every surface ship in the Russian navy, just for starters. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by dan/california

[Bulletpoint]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

OMG!

https://twitter.com/KarinaVinnikova/status/1676277767124525069?s=20

Not sure about this one. On one hand, they seem to care a lot to bring their dead soldiers home, on the other hand they don't care about them at all? Surely it would be easier to just leave them in the fields and record them as missing in action.

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Not sure about this one. On one hand, they seem to care a lot to bring their dead soldiers home, on the other hand they don't care about them at all? Surely it would be easier to just leave them in the fields and record them as missing in action.

I still WANT to believe that this is fake, but on the other hand, what we already have seen in the last 18 month...

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is time for NATO to make the redlines even clearer, and MEAN IT. If anything, happens at the plant, and i do mean anything, Article 5 should be declared, and NATO planes should start killing every Russian soldier in Ukraine. And they should keep dong it until they all are dead or gone. If Russia wants a wider war, give it to them, and sink every surface ship in the Russian navy, just for starters. 

Let's say the reactors get into an "accident" that causes a meltdown and there are zero casualties. Small emissions like in a three-mile island, that do not even demand evacuations.

End result is Ukraine lost its largest power plant and future cleanup operation, with a cost of tens of billions. 

I don't see Russia seeing any escalation risk here. I don't either 

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I still WANT to believe that this is fake, but on the other hand, what we already have seen in the last 18 month...

Make no mistake, I'm ready to believe any kind of cruelty and inhumanity from the Russian army at this point. It just doesn't really make sense to compress dead soldiers like this.

I mean what's the point? Do they have to pay less money in compensation to the dead soldier's family if they bring home the remains, no matter the condition?

How to even pick apart a mess like that and confirm the identity of each guy?

If the problem is lack of body bags, why not just use regular black trash bags or plastic wrap?

 

[Letter from Prague]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Let's say the reactors get into an "accident" that causes a meltdown and there are zero casualties. Small emissions like in a three-mile island, that do not even demand evacuations.

End result is Ukraine lost its largest power plant and future cleanup operation, with a cost of tens of billions. 

I don't see Russia seeing any escalation risk here. I don't either 

Yeah the West won't do anything. The dam non-reaction is a clear green light to Russia.

[kraze]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is time for NATO to make the redlines even clearer, and MEAN IT. If anything, happens at the plant, and i do mean anything, Article 5 should be declared, and NATO planes should start killing every Russian soldier in Ukraine. And they should keep dong it until they all are dead or gone. If Russia wants a wider war, give it to them, and sink every surface ship in the Russian navy, just for starters. 

yeah, not happening.

[DesertFox]

 

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Make no mistake, I'm ready to believe any kind of cruelty and inhumanity from the Russian army at this point. It just doesn't really make sense to compress dead soldiers like this.

I mean what's the point? Do they have to pay less money in compensation to the dead soldier's family if they bring home the remains, no matter the condition?

How to even pick apart a mess like that and confirm the identity of each guy?

If the problem is lack of body bags, why not just use regular black trash bags or plastic wrap?

 

Yep agreed. They could simply burry the remains somewhere or incinerate them. But transporting them in this form? For what purpose?

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yeah the West won't do anything. The dam non-reaction is a clear green light to Russia.

yep - after zero reaction (not even the token "deeply concerned") I realized everybody in the West very much clocked out of every genocidal warcrime russians are going to do - and ZNPP attack is only a matter of time.

It's possible that after tonight we may see not only T-55s employed at the frontlines by russians, but also tactical nukes in a month or two.

After all tactical nukes cause much less wind spread radiation than a nuclear power plant blown up open and it won't even be an "escalation".

Edited July 4, 2023 by kraze

[DesertFox]

Pretty good thread by Theiner, arguing against the MSM nonsense. IMHO worth a read:

Quote

 

In Germany

@derspiegel,

@welt,

@ntvde and in Austria

@derStandardat

write that "the Ukrainian Offensive has failed"... ... That is wild nonsense. This nonsense happens, because all of them interviewed the same expert, who doesn't understand Ukraine's Offensive phases, of 1/25

 

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1676278761342345216?s=20

 

[Letter from Prague]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

yep - after zero reaction (not even the token "deeply concerned") I realized everybody in the West very much clocked out of every genocidal warcrime russians are going to do - and ZNPP attack is only a matter of time.

It's possible that after tonight we may see not only T-55s employed at the frontlines by russians, but also tactical nukes in a month or two.

I mean we have seen enormous scale terrorism with no reaction. And just today we saw chemical weapons and we might see nuclear before the day is over.

I'm expecting Russians to start nuking residential districts of cities out of spite and I can read in this thread a very well written explanation why doing nothing about it is in fact the best choice.

[Bulletpoint]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Pretty good thread by Theiner, arguing against the MSM nonsense. IMHO worth a read:

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1676278761342345216?s=20

 

But did the MSM even write that the offensive has failed?

 

"After an operational pause, he said, the Army has now consolidated and changed its tactics and battle techniques. [...] "They are trying to attack with small assault groups. This tactic is very, very slow, but it is successful.""

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[DesertFox]

Ammo dump at Donetsk goes Boom, so they say

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by DesertFox

[Letter from Prague]

I'm going to say, if the mobik cubes (notice the pun) are real, they are very darkly hilarious.

The Russians who were for years completely unable to do logistics in 20th not to mention 21st century way are going to start using palettes for transporting something ... and the something is bodies of their soldiers in the most inhumanly ****ed up way possible?

It can't get any more Russian Army than that, I am sure.

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

But did the MSM even write that the offensive has failed?

Haven´t read them all, but @welt has interviewed and quoted the austrian guy:

Ukraine-News ++ Reisner: „Erste Phase der ukrainischen Offensive ist gescheitert“ ++ - WELT