Haiduk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 3 hours ago, Kinophile said: 4/89 mechanized infantry brigades? Eighty nine? Hm... If we take TD brigades, National Guard brigades and Air-assault brigades, maybe we will get 89, but I didn't count ) Currently, from open sources we know about 38 "infantry" brigades of Ground Forces (means mechanized, motorized, assault, mountain-assault, jager) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Not quite ready to call that. However, why Russia abandoned its successes in GZ/Hybrid warfare and decided to "go loud" baffles me to this day. I mean lets say in an alt universe they pulled it all off. Ukraine falls, they occupy the country...how does this make things better? Finland and Sweden still running to NATO. NATO doubling down on Baltics (FFS, Putin managed to get Canadian tanks back in Europe...under a freakin Liberal government no less!) and securing heavy defence spending. We likely would have gotten all in on "support to Ukrainian resistance" as an insurgency from hell with safe havens all over the place except Belarus went to town. I am sure from inside the dark, warm and smelly place within the Kremlin there was a vision of victory here but this one has to go down as one of the worst strategic mis-steps of the last 100 years. Actually when you look at those 100 years, quite a crappy batting average by Russia overall wrt strategic decisions. I mean that those days are over...for Russia in Ukraine. It's a real big boy pants time war and gnawing around the edges just won't cut it. I think the answer to your question comes down to isolation and time. Too much of the former in Putin's inner circle and too little of the latter left to them. They thought they were going to take care of all family business before they went off the stage. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Not quite ready to call that. However, why Russia abandoned its successes in GZ/Hybrid warfare and decided to "go loud" baffles me to this day. I mean lets say in an alt universe they pulled it all off. Ukraine falls, they occupy the country...how does this make things better? Finland and Sweden still running to NATO. NATO doubling down on Baltics (FFS, Putin managed to get Canadian tanks back in Europe...under a freakin Liberal government no less!) and securing heavy defence spending. We likely would have gotten all in on "support to Ukrainian resistance" as an insurgency from hell with safe havens all over the place except Belarus went to town. I am sure from inside the dark, warm and smelly place within the Kremlin there was a vision of victory here but this one has to go down as one of the worst strategic mis-steps of the last 100 years. Actually when you look at those 100 years, quite a crappy batting average by Russia overall wrt strategic decisions. It is closer to a one hundred and twenty years now. The last Tsar got in over his head in the Russo-Japanese war in 1905. There is a pretty good argument that all Russia has done is stagger from crisis to crisis since then. Every period of "stability" has been bought with iron fisted totalitarianism, and that works until doesn't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 3 hours ago, DesertFox said: Rykove aftermath Too fantastic to be true. Though, we have today two (by other info four) hits in Henichesk. Reportedly place of Rosgvariya deployment was struck. Allegedly at least dozen or more killed. Number of wounded unknown. Voice of cameraman on first video: "It's Rosgvardiya servicemen were hit! Fu...g sh...t!" Survived Rosgvardiya troopers: "They have adjusted fire so far, damn!" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) Main structure was hit after all. Excellent! You can see the damage to the support structure, beyond. That is an incredibly long distance to still have that sort of effect. Christ what a weapon. Edited June 23, 2023 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Excellent synopsis of where things stand in Russia. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riptides Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 2 hours ago, sross112 said: Just my thoughts. I think Prig is working to save Putin and in doing so creating further opportunity for himself. He is telling the people that Putin was lied to by the FSB and MOD. This gives Putin the out that he needs. When stuff is terminally sideways Putin can ruthlessly purge the MOD and any rogue FSB elements left as well as anyone else he wants to tie to the conspiracy. Then he can pull what is left of the RA back into Russia and announce how he was misled and fooled by the bad actors he just had shot against the Kremlin walls. How they were responsible and did it because of whatever reason (greed, hate, or even a planned military failure that would dethrone him) and that he figured it out and is now, once again, saving the Russian people from a horrible mistake. Prig and Kadryov are close supporters of Putin and both have been naysaying the MOD for awhile now. My vote for the main scape goat is the MOD with a splash of FSB. I could see this all happening as a play to save Crimea, so possibly this summer. Putin announces withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk as well as any other occupied territories, except Crimea. He will use all his tankies to put pressure on the west and therefore Ukraine to cease hostilities. If we see an uptick in the propaganda when the RA really starts losing it will be a good sign that something along these lines is being prepared. His hopes are that the Russian people will believe his lies and he will remain in power, his well funded supporters in the west will parrot his lies and have a cooling affect on Ukraine, and that his apology for the schemes of others, not him, will allow the war to end with Crimea still Russian. So who strikes first? Putin or the MOD? The MOD have to realize they are the in the cross hairs and if they don't act first it will be all over. Will it happen after the first large scale collapse, or will it be when the RA has totally collapsed? A good case for internally within Russia. Everyone else sees Putin, his cronies and his brain dead followers of "mother russia" as the issue. Putin may save face internally, externally dealing with "russia" will never, ever be the same so long as he holds some influence or power. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riptides Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 46 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Born for Vietnam or Cold War... It bided own time Now compare that to Russia stock piles. Never mind. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Another Kofman interview:https://www.cnas.org/publications/podcast/the-battlefield-landscape-in-ukraine-with-mike-kofman-and-konrad-muzyka 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) @billbindc 1hour ago... Something's afoot... Could be internal false flag... Edited June 23, 2023 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Russian blogger is worried AFU are preparing to offensive on left bank of Dnepr. Several days they have been wiping out our deployments and ammo dumps in areas of Skadovsk, Lazurnoye [ukr. Lazurne] and Henichesk. There are many killed and wounded. Now throughout all the day we are hearing HIMARS missile impacts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der Zeitgeist Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 And so it begins. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Probably BS, but very fun BS: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Kinophile said: @billbindc 1hour ago... Something's afoot... Allegedly "Prigozhyn pictures" staged video "aftermath of MoD strike on Wagner camp". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) Interesring fact. UKR troops in first time since 2019 have retaken territory, which was under DPR control since 2014. This is between UKR-held Krasnohorivka and DPR-held Staromykhailivka Reportedly UKR soldiers hitn that penetration is slightly more, than marked on DeepState map Brutal violation of Minsk agreements! ))) Edited June 23, 2023 by Haiduk 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riptides Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) So it was started. How do you not view this as civil war? PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back. Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads. I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland. Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia." Edited June 23, 2023 by riptides 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der Zeitgeist Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, riptides said: So it was started. How do you not view this as civil war? PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back. Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads. I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland. Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia." Looks like a coup attempt to me. I suspect Prigozhin loses this badly but we'll see. The war for the Russians, as I've been saying for a while now, is in Moscow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) Hasn’t Prigozhin almost always used video to deliver messages in the past? Is someone, internal or external, trying to induce chaos or justify RU action again Wagner using AI fakes? Not clear if source is “normal” channel for Prigozhin to use for such messaging. Edited June 23, 2023 by akd 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, riptides said: So it was started. How do you not view this as civil war? PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back. Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads. I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland. Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia." The Russian Ministry of Defense responds:https://t.me/mod_russia/27801 Quote All messages and video frames distributed on social networks on behalf of E. Prigozhin about allegedly “delivering a strike by the RF Ministry of Defense on the rear camps of PMC Wagner” do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation. The armed forces of the Russian Federation continue to carry out combat missions on the line of contact with the armed forces of Ukraine in the area of the special military operation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Interesring fact. UKR troops in first time since 2019 have retaken territory, which was under DPR control since 2014. This is between UKR-held Krasnohorivka and DPR-held Staromykhailivka Reportedly UKR soldiers hitn that penetration is slightly more, than marked on DeepState map Brutal violation of Minsk agreements! ))) There are many reports about essentially every military aged male in the L/DPR being dead, wounded, captured, or in the case of the very lucky fled to another country. The defenses in front of Donetsk itself may just be so undermanned that the quantity of trenches and concrete just doesn't matter anymore. Breaking thru at Bakmuht, and then going behind Donetsk city to cut the land bridge would be the power move of all power moves. Russian logistics would just dissolve, never mind the morale. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) Reaction of RU MoD. All statements on behalf of Prigizhyn about any strikes on their camps are information provocation Edited June 23, 2023 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, billbindc said: Looks like a coup attempt to me. I suspect Prigozhin loses this badly but we'll see. The war for the Russians, as I've been saying for a while now, is in Moscow. If this is real, and I assume some combination of NATO, and Ukrainian intelligence can check fairly well, this is the monment for Ukraine to PUSH IT. The Russians will never be more distracted than they are right now. It might also be the moment for all the deep fakes and other methods of issuing false orders to Russian units I suspect Ukraine has been working on. I am pretty sure they have been working on a lot of that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Reaction of RU MoD. All statements of Prigizhyn aboput any strikes on their camps are information provocation Which of course is what they would say either way.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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