Taranis Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 NATO completes largest air exercise in its history Quote NATO on Friday completed its largest aerial maneuver exercise intended to show the unity of its members, especially in the face of potential threats from Russia. This exercise, coordinated by Germany and baptized “Air Defender 23”, brought together some 250 military aircraft from twenty-five member and partner countries of the Atlantic Alliance, including Sweden, a candidate country for NATO membership . Up to 10,000 people took part in these exercises aimed in particular at strengthening interoperability and protection against drone and cruise missile attacks. “These exercises were a total success, not only tactically, but also organizationally,” German Air Force chief Ingo Gerhartz said from the airbase. from Jagel (Schleswig-Holstein). The exercise was conceived in 2018, partly in response to the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, and was intended as a form of "insurance" for the eastern flank of the Atlantic Alliance, even if it does not specifically target "nobody" , explained Mr. Gerhartz, during the presentation of the exercise. But these maneuvers were also intended to send a message, in particular to Russia, had for his part explained the ambassador of the United States in Germany, Amy Gutmann. Source Le Monde 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taranis Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Short History of the 3rd Assault Brigade (6 minutes) : 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 1 hour ago, DesertFox said: More Prigozhin stuff https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984 longer video woth subs Now that is interesting development on non-military side... More and mroe aparent that he is actually working as lightning rod for Kremlin. I wouldn't like to be in pants of Russian top brass when war ends. On the other side, it seems that already for some time Prigozhin public influence is shrinking somewhat. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acrashb Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 8 hours ago, chris talpas said: Crawford Lake, been there many times -it is a local conservation area. I live less than ten minutes from there. The plutonium would explain the night-sky glow coming from the north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearstronaut Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, dan/california said: If The_Capt gets deployed we need to pass the hat to get him every ultralight carbon fiber and titanium piece of gear there is. It is the least we can do for a free staff college education. Edit: We didn't even have to take the class on logistics forms... He's not the only one who would be going. I'm a NCO in a EUCOM-aligned Reserve unit. Additionally, my little sister is a Reserve officer currently deployed in Poland. Edited June 23, 2023 by Bearstronaut 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 10 hours ago, The_Capt said: US Congress just basically gave bi-partisan support for an escalation ladder to WW3…that is some spicy talk. Nuclear weapons release makes sense (although these were words we dared not speak in the previous 17 months). Destruction of a nuclear power plant = Article 5 is a pretty serious round to be loading in the chamber. I drifted off when everyone was talking about 6.8mm and woke up to this?! Where in the hell is @billbindc! I was drinking beer and sleeping. Apologies. I've been banging this drum for a bit now. I think it's highly likely Russia blows up the power plant. The dam was the signal that all bets are off and everything is on the table. Peskov will blame it on Ukraine and there will be further escalation. I don't think the US invokes Article 5 but aid to Ukraine will ramp up quite considerably thereafter without fear that China will match it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elmar Bijlsma Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Awww shucks! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 @Haiduk et al, is this accurate? 4/89 mechanized infantry brigades? Eighty nine? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, billbindc said: I was drinking beer and sleeping. Apologies. I've been banging this drum for a bit now. I think it's highly likely Russia blows up the power plant. The dam was the signal that all bets are off and everything is on the table. Peskov will blame it on Ukraine and there will be further escalation. I don't think the US invokes Article 5 but aid to Ukraine will ramp up quite considerably thereafter without fear that China will match it. Well I support the first activity, there will be time enough for the second in the post-apocalyptical afterglow. What do you think the odds are for a soft/silent-Article 5 that starts prosecuting non-kinetic targets inside Russia? Also, I am not sure what we do if radiation drifts into Poland or somesuch and then they go all Article 5. Edited June 23, 2023 by The_Capt 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Rykove aftermath 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Beleg85 said: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984 longer video woth subs Now that is interesting development on non-military side... More and mroe aparent that he is actually working as lightning rod for Kremlin. I wouldn't like to be in pants of Russian top brass when war ends. On the other side, it seems that already for some time Prigozhin public influence is shrinking somewhat. Yep. Well worth reading/listening. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teufel Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) Friends, First and foremost, shout out to all of you jarheads that actively keep such an interesting thread going for the past year and half! Been reading it almost daily since last summer and very impressed by your level of knowledge and understanding for modern (and historic) warfare. Not that would always agree with rationale behind some things but that’s the beauty of debate if allowed in pragmatic fashion. Finally, figured I’d join the fray and possibly offer some perspectives of my own to some discussions. Let us not dwell on introductions but just chalk my background to “Red Cross volunteer”. When and where is irrelevant at this point so let’s keep it at that. Nickname is not chosen to be offensive, former callsign given by brothers in arms. There is one thing that’s crossed my mind several times for the past weeks of precision strikes on several high value targets. Such as several high ranking HQ, large force’s concentrations, ammunition dumps, and the long list of many other such by Ukraine. Might be wrong, and got no proof of the following but in my mind the sudden losses of high level Russian commanders and soldiers is no coincidence. Neither is the timing of such. And it has nothing to do with the counter offensive itself. Nor is it my opinion a surge of highly improved partizan intel. And frankly, I do not believe that all of sudden Ukrainians agents are able provide real-time updates of whereabouts of high level Russian commanders. Firstly, the nature of Russian C&C operations would make such intel difficult by lower level officers. Secondly, even if such information does reach Ukrainian from embedded Russian sources, they must somehow verify it before striking. Thirdly, the strikes obviously need to be timely not only in terms of exact target but also in terms of well, time. Don’t want our packages to be delivered too late, nor do we want to send them to the wrong address do we? Knowing beforehand that target A is going to be at point B with short notice doesn’t really help. You only get one chance to target B - when A is present. Making it less than trivial task to execute, unless the source of the intel is undeniably credible to the Ukrainians. To make long story short and skip to my point - Russian MoD has crossed a line with Prigozjin and this is is his elegantly executed pay-back. Can list plenty of reasons and examples of factors supporting my rationale. But just few quick ones, Adam Delimkhanov was very vocal against Progozjin - to the point of ridicule. The latter seemed to ignore the threatening and aggressive messages from the vocal Chechen, and said nothing in reply. What happened to Adam one week later? Major General Sergei Goryachev, allegedly dies in missile strike within days after. Just few days after several other HQ with high ranking officers being hit in Bakhmut directions. Add all the other precision strikes on similar targets occurring in short period of time. Anybody can say that Ukrainians waited for the offensive to start rolling before striking. Hard pressed to believe they would wait if they knew intelligence was solid before that. Which is also an aspect of why Prigozjin is all over this, let’s not bring up the MoD ultimatum of signing any and all PMC fighters end of this month. Wrote this post two weeks ago but didn’t come around to post it. In the meantime Prigozjin went silent all of a sudden with zero videos for about 7-10 days. Other than few short voice messages. The man reappears in video sitting down on table in front of Wagner flag trashing the MoD. Even goes as far as to accuse “the President of the Federation” swimming in blood/being knee deep in blood. All these chains of events may very well me random events and two weeks ago I was hesitant to post this as unsure of my rationale. I am less so today. Prigozjin has friends in high places within the MoD, themselves disgruntled. Surovikin being the best example, promoted to, and demoted for, the mission impossible in Kherson. Man with colorful past of illegal arms trading, human rights violations in Syria and Chechnya. It’s not far-fetched to assume there are yet others that like Surovikin are unhappy with their MoD colleagues. Driven by perhaps nothing else than patriotic sentiment, ref Dmitri Polyakov whose is quoted with the sole motivation being “loyalty to the Russian people and not the system I served under”. Can elaborate further on this as there are several more details not included in this post. Before I BS anybody by talking out of my behind, let’s see if these HQ strikes continue in the next following weeks [written two weeks ago]. Wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens and Prigozjin keeps very low profile about the same. For all he knows, the Russian MoD is useless in all aspects of their C&C. It be a miracle would they all of sudden successfully protect intel of high level commanders and their whereabouts? Just like Prigozjin ignored the whole calamity about Adam Delimkhanov, restrains himself from replying to aggressive comments from the Chechens. Instead, the man gets Storm Shadow missile served to him on a platter. Again, got no proof and sheer speculation so might be completely off target here. But despite lack of solid evidence of above speculation give me a pass on “negative law of evidence”. Meaning - if can’t prove that Prigozjin has nothing to do with this, then there the possibility that he is involved(?). As the saying goes, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the World he doesn’t exist. In plain English, how could the loudest of all Russian patriots possibly want to hurt Russia? And how could he do such damage by providing Ukraine with intelligence from the very top of the MoD? Maybe because his sole motivation is the loyalty to the Russian people, and his own personal gains. One doesn’t need to contradict the other. Too long post but bear with me! Happy to hear you input friends and your informed thoughts on this. Teufel Edited June 23, 2023 by Teufel 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 4 hours ago, DesertFox said: More Prigozhin stuff This is important. He is no longer messaging about the tactical state of the war or the strategic failures of the MOD, he is now explicitly saying that the political reasons for this war are lies. It is hard to imagine that is in keeping with Putin's messaging strategy, but Russia is complicated so there is a possibility it is. I have no idea how far Prig can keep pushing things without a response, even if this is being done with Putin's approval. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Rosgvardia base gone boom 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Well I support the first activity, there will be time enough for the second in the post-apocalyptical afterglow. What do you think the odds are for a soft/silent-Article 5 that starts prosecuting non-kinetic targets inside Russia? Also, I am not sure what we do if radiation drifts into Poland or somesuch and then they go all Article 5. I very much doubt that NATO starts hitting targets in an obvious way in Russia. I would expect that material support for Ukraine doing it would be supplied and caviling about limitations would end. I would also expect something more like a complete trade embargo, ATACMS, F-16's and a general commitment towards the long term containment and destruction of the Putin regime. India and Turkey would swing pretty decisively into the anti-Russia camp and China would no longer have any appetite to bail Russia out. I think it would also completely destroy any chance that US or NATO interest/support for Ukraine wanes over time. Countries like Israel would probably come off the sidelines and Iran would have a rethink about what they are getting into. Blowing up the Zaporizhzhia power plant in effect converts Russia into a bigger, more idiotic DPRK. The world will act accordingly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Teufel said: Friends, First and foremost, shout out to all of you jarheads that actively keep such an interesting thread going for the past year and half! Been reading it almost daily since last summer and very impressed by your level of knowledge and understanding for modern (and historic) warfare. Not that would always agree with rationale behind some things but that’s the beauty of debate if allowed in pragmatic fashion. Finally, figured I’d join the fray and possibly offer some perspectives of my own to some discussions. Let us not dwell on introductions but just chalk my background to “Red Cross volunteer”. When and where is irrelevant at this point so let’s keep it at that. Nickname is not chosen to be offensive, former callsign given by brothers in arms. There is one thing that’s crossed my mind several times for the past weeks of precision strikes on several high value targets. Such as several high ranking HQ, large force’s concentrations, ammonia dumps, and the long list of many other such by Ukraine. Might be wrong, and got no proof of the following but I my mind the sudden losses of high level Russian commanders and soldiers is no coincidence. Neither is the timing of such. And it has nothing to do with the counter offensive itself. Nor is it my opinion a surge of highly improved partizan intel. And frankly, I do not believe that all of sudden Ukrainians agents are able provide real-time updates of whereabouts of high level Russian commanders. Firstly, the nature of Russian C&C operations would make such intel difficult by lower level officers. Secondly, even if such information does reach Ukrainian from embedded Russian sources, they must somehow verify it before striking. Thirdly, the strikes obviously need to be timely not only in terms of exact target but also in terms of well, time. Don’t want our packages to be delivered too late, nor do we want to send them to the wrong address do we? Knowing beforehand that target A is going to be at point B with short notice doesn’t really help. You only get one chance to target B - when A is present. Making it less than trivial task to execute, unless the source of the intel is undeniably credible to the Ukrainians. To make long story short and skip to my point - Russian MoD has crossed a line with Prigozjin and this is is his elegantly executed pay-back. Can list plenty of reasons and examples of factors supporting my rationale. But just few quick ones, Adam Delimkhanov was very vocal against Progozjin - to the point of ridicule. The latter seemed to ignore the threatening and aggressive messages from the vocal Chechen, and said nothing in reply. What happened to Adam one week later? Major General Sergei Goryachev, allegedly dies in missile strike within days after. Just few days after several other HQ with high ranking officers being hit in Bakhmut directions. Add all the other precision strikes on similar targets occurring in short period of time. Anybody can say that Ukrainians waited for the offensive to start rolling before striking. Hard pressed to believe they would wait if they knew intelligence was solid before that. Which is also an aspect of why Prigozjin is all over this, let’s not bring up the MoD ultimatum of signing any and all PMC fighters end of this month. Wrote this post two weeks ago but didn’t come around to post it. In the meantime Prigozjin went silent all of a sudden with zero videos for about 7-10 days. Other than few short voice messages. The man reappears in video sitting down on table in front of Wagner flag trashing the MoD. Even goes as far as to accuse “the President of the Federation” swimming in blood/being knee deep in blood. All these chains of events may very well me random events and two weeks ago I was hesitant to post this as unsure of my rationale. I am less so today. Prigozjin has friends in high places within the MoD, themselves disgruntled. Surovikin being the best example, promoted to, and demoted for, the mission impossible in Kherson. Man with colorful past of illegal arms trading, human rights violations in Syria and Chechnya. It’s not far-fetched to assume there are yet others that like Surovikin are unhappy with their MoD colleagues. Driven by perhaps nothing else than patriotic sentiment, ref Dmitri Polyakov whose is quoted with the sole motivation being “loyalty to the Russian people and not the system I served under”. Can elaborate further on this as there are several more details not included in this post. Before I BS anybody by talking out of my behind, let’s see if these HQ strikes continue in the next following weeks [written two weeks ago]. Wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens and Prigozjin keeps very low profile about the same. For all he knows, the Russian MoD is useless in all aspects of their C&C. It be a miracle would they all of sudden successfully protect intel of high level commanders and their whereabouts? Just like Prigozjin ignored the whole calamity about Adam Delimkhanov, restrains himself from replying to aggressive comments from the Chechens. Instead, the man gets Storm Shadow missile served to him on a platter. Again, got no proof and sheer speculation so might be completely off target here. But despite lack of solid evidence of above speculation give me a pass on “negative law of evidence”. Meaning - if can’t prove that Prigozjin has nothing to do with this, then there the possibility that he is involved(?). As the saying goes, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the World he doesn’t exist. In plain English, how could the loudest of all Russian patriots possibly want to hurt Russia? And how could he do such damage by providing Ukraine with intelligence from the very top of the MoD? Maybe because his sole motivation is the loyalty to the Russian people, and his own personal gains. One doesn’t need to contradict the other. Too long post but bear with me! Happy to hear you input friends and your informed thoughts on this. Teufel Long time listener, first time caller...welcome. Not a bad idea, however, I am always cautious about single node theories as they often have to be strung together by conspiracy. If I am reading you correctly your position is that Prig has flipped and now is barfing intel on HVTs, hence the recent successes? Could be a factor, however one has to realize that the C4ISR architecture being employed by the UA and deeply supported by the West is epic...and I am talking "in the history of the species - epic". The HVT strikes could simply be a result of the UA probing which has caused the RA C2 structure to light itself up. It could be a result of partisan asset activation that has remain dormant until the c-offensive. It could be a multi-domain hack that the west and UA have on an RA C2 vulnerability that they been saving up and just pulled the trigger. It is most likely a combination of all of the above to be honest. Or it could be an inside job to clean house of disloyal or problematic RA leadership - although I have to wonder why people would not do this the old fashion way of "sudden health crisis" as opposed to high profile Ukrainian HIMAR. My advice is to keep an eye out for more indicators but don't get scope eye on any one solution. In reality we likely will not fully understand what happened for years, maybe never. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teufel Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Yep. Well worth reading/listening. Have to add to my post above; the timing of my post is sheer coincidence in relation to this one. But couldn’t have asked for better timing from our friend DesertFox right here. Shish, you and I are going to be best friends after this, should go fishing sometimes! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Rosgvardia base gone boom A Russian telegrammer confirms that they have losses: https://t.me/rosgvardeez/2844 Quote According to the information, the blow fell on the location of the Russian Guard, where the engineering and sapper regiment and repair base were located. Unfortunately there are dead and wounded. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This is important. He is no longer messaging about the tactical state of the war or the strategic failures of the MOD, he is now explicitly saying that the political reasons for this war are lies. It is hard to imagine that is in keeping with Putin's messaging strategy, but Russia is complicated so there is a possibility it is. I have no idea how far Prig can keep pushing things without a response, even if this is being done with Putin's approval. Steve There's no political angle to Prigozhin's statements that I can suss out. He's burning bridges with his FSB heavy supports and he's effectively saying the war is lost and the boss is either deluded or too incompetent to know that he's being lied to. It's that rarest of Russian and Prigozhin statements...an actual cri de couer. I think we are at the crisis point and Prigozhin is honestly terrified of what will happen when the moment breaks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teufel Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Long time listener, first time caller...welcome. Not a bad idea, however, I am always cautious about single node theories as they often have to be strung together by conspiracy. If I am reading you correctly your position is that Prig has flipped and now is barfing intel on HVTs, hence the recent successes? Could be a factor, however one has to realize that the C4ISR architecture being employed by the UA and deeply supported by the West is epic...and I am talking "in the history of the species - epic". The HVT strikes could simply be a result of the UA probing which has caused the RA C2 structure to light itself up. It could be a result of partisan asset activation that has remain dormant until the c-offensive. It could be a multi-domain hack that the west and UA have on an RA C2 vulnerability that they been saving up and just pulled the trigger. It is most likely a combination of all of the above to be honest. Or it could be an inside job to clean house of disloyal or problematic RA leadership - although I have to wonder why people would not do this the old fashion way of "sudden health crisis" as opposed to high profile Ukrainian HIMAR. My advice is to keep an eye out for more indicators but don't get scope eye on any one solution. In reality we likely will not fully understand what happened for years, maybe never. That is also true, I never said was the sole reason for nor the crucial factor for the recent successes of Ukrainians. Admitting in the post, being sheer speculation, that doesn’t exclude dialetheism. For the record, trust me when I say that aluminum foil hats are not part of wardrobe. Nor do I fancy such fashionable outfits. Will we ever know? Impossible to say at this point, and as my crystals ball is still missing I can’t offer any qualified guesses either. Also, the C4ISR was part of the war all along, or do we have reasons to think it suddenly and timely improved the last month or so? Not suggesting you are wrong, quite the contrary, I see your point of view but it doesn’t exclude the possibility of additional information trickling down from within the Russian MoD. Via Prigozjin or someone else, but that he wouldn’t have any part of this whatsoever, unlikely, but again got no proof of it other than circumstantial evidence. Thus, speculation that I wanted input on, your among them. Edited June 23, 2023 by Teufel 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 1 hour ago, billbindc said: There's no political angle to Prigozhin's statements that I can suss out. He's burning bridges with his FSB heavy supports and he's effectively saying the war is lost and the boss is either deluded or too incompetent to know that he's being lied to. It's that rarest of Russian and Prigozhin statements...an actual cri de couer. I think we are at the crisis point and Prigozhin is honestly terrified of what will happen when the moment breaks. We have been wondering if this guy has been off the leash for sometime now. I think it is safe to say that he definitely looks that way now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Teufel said: Also, the C4ISR was part of the war all along, or do we have reasons to think it suddenly and timely improved the last month or so? Not suggesting you are wrong, quite the contrary, I see your point of view but it doesn’t exclude the possibility of additional information trickling down from within the Russian MoD. Totally true. As to C4ISR, well as a total hypothetical - if western cyber has managed to penetrate an Russian network that yields them hi resolution LOCSTATS on RA HVT, they may have laid in wait for the UA counter-offensive for months. The sudden "improvement" is much more likely the end result of months of putting things into place in order to support the UA push. Any information trickling out of Russian MoD could be a leak, could be a pin-prick, could be a tick, could be a mole. My best advice is to keep an eye on all of them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 New pontoon bridge at Chongar. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Just now, DesertFox said: New pontoon bridge at Chongar. They must have hit it hard. Likely created load restrictions that forced the backup. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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