How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

Really hard to say without further data. It seems ship was able to continue moving under it's own steam, but if the explosion was as powerful as at the other video, it couldn't be good to the electronic mission equipment it carries.
In any case, the message was delivered that Black Sea is not a safe place for Russian Navy, even further away from UA coast.  And it will get much worse when F-16s and/ or other aircraft capable of launching anti-ship missiles arrive in a few months.

Worth to note that circa week ago Grain Deal was prolonged. If Ukrainians feel comfortable enough (and have green light from NATO) about attacking muscovite warship not that far from Bospohorus, it shows how Russian position weakened relative to early war.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Calibre Obscura retweeted a prior tweet, and he isn’t wrong, and as much as the West would like Ukraine to act on the high road, I don’t think Russia, acting the way it did while winning, stalemated, and now potentially losing, will suddenly shape up, and not instead continue double down on terror, and so at the least I expect way more border incursions to occur, with eventually Ukrainian forces at some point.

Russian neonazis or other Russian nationals, no matter, tbh, if the objective is slow boiling the Russian general public, and not freaking them out, choosing Russians to raid is the way to go. Sad to say, most opposition to Putin of the more liberal or moderate variety are somewhat pacifist, or even reluctant to acknowledge the validity of the need to defeat Russia militarily, much less advocate or support Ukraine in reality. 

those Russians who fled Russia aren’t at least to my knowledge, supporting a anti-Putin movement or seeking to stop the war, or joining the Ukrainian armed forces or such, and so, as much as I hope these nasty people die, for now, their objectives align with Ukraine, and it would impolite to betray them and certainly is not high road wise to meat grinder them like Russia does with their conscripts and convicts.

 

I've asked for us to move on from the fascist/Nazi issue (it will no doubt come up again soon enough anyway!), but I did think it is valuable to dig into the possibility of Russia being taken over by a different fascist coalition of powerful groups.  Since the start of the war we have repeatedly discussed this and come to the conclusion that this is the inevitable follow up to Putin's regime.  Near zero chance of initially getting something resembling a democratic government.

What this new movement of Russian fascist leaning resistance groups, supported by Ukraine, shows us is there *is* an alternative to the one we all presumed would take power from Putin... another pro-war, ultra nationalist group that might even be worse than Putin's regime (at least worse than it had been in the earlier 2000s).

We really don't know much about the political philosophies of the groups that participated in the Belgorod incursion, however it is entirely possible that they would be a much better alternative than what we're currently (pretty much) destined to get.

That said, I think these groups have very little chance of doing anything on their own.  They will need alliances within Russia to do much more than be a thorn in the side of the current Russian government.  If that happens the "good fascists" will be the junior partners and will likely be purged once their usefulness is at an end.  The senior partners might be better than the direction we're currently headed in, maybe not.

In short... this is something interesting to watch, but I am skeptical it really changes the equation within Russia as much as it is helping Ukraine's immediate war needs.

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 5/23/2023 at 8:13 AM, Splinty said:

Actually the US Marines are technically part of the US Navy, but generally are treated as their own branch.

For all intents and purposes they're basically their own branch. But it's always fun to remind them of this fact.

[Centurian52]

double post

Edited May 25, 2023 by Centurian52

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

It is unlikely to have done serious harm, though. The Russians themselves were gloating about the engagement, even they are not that stupid to do this if the ship eventually gets sunk or very visibly damaged.

Doesn't matter if the ship is sunk or not.  Any damage, and I mean any, will require the ship to go into drydock to be repaired.  This is not a quick process even if all they need to do is replace some armor plates.  Russia can not afford any disruption of any of its naval assets at this time.  Even if the ship is out of commission for a couple of weeks (which would be surprisingly quick), that could be enough time for Ukraine to conduct an operation which benefits from the ship's absence.

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 5/23/2023 at 12:35 PM, Battlefront.com said:

The other thing is that the F-16 has capabilities that Soviet type aircraft don't have *and* automatic support for any NATO munition or EW package without the need for special engineering.

All that, plus the F-16 is obsolescent in the US Air Force. I see no reason why we can't send Ukraine F-16s just as fast as we are replacing them with F-35s. According to a quick google search we may be slated to produce 156 F-35s this year. Which means we could potentially send 156 F-16s this year without our force readiness dropping by one iota. Presumably we could send a similar number next year.

[Centurian52]

On 5/23/2023 at 12:39 PM, The_Capt said:

Doesn’t that create an infinitely spiralling acronym?  A fractal acronym?

A recursive acronym. like GNU (GNU's Not Unix).

[Battlefront.com]

When Russia first started deploying Cope Pyramids we had a discussion about how useful they might be.  The conclusion was that they wouldn't do much because they are just sitting on the surface.  It doesn't take much to move them out of the way.  Now, we have some visual confirmation, albeit from the rear where Ukraine is training for such things:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13ridti/ruzzian_denfense_pyramids_beware_the_challenger_2/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like there was either a Russian SU-25 hit by MANPAD and had to make an emergency landing at Melitopol or there was an attack on the airfield.

And footage of the new 23rd Mech Battalion training on obstacle and fortification clearance:

Steve

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Doesn't matter if the ship is sunk or not.  Any damage, and I mean any, will require the ship to go into drydock to be repaired.  This is not a quick process even if all they need to do is replace some armor plates.  Russia can not afford any disruption of any of its naval assets at this time.  Even if the ship is out of commission for a couple of weeks (which would be surprisingly quick), that could be enough time for Ukraine to conduct an operation which benefits from the ship's absence.

Steve

Russian ships that enter drydock seem to have difficulty getting out of them. 

Russia’s Disaster-Plagued Aircraft Carrier Finally Left Its Drydock (thedrive.com)

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I cannot offer a native speakers' perspective, but to me it looks more like a philosophical than language point. For example, in legal usage if event X increases the probability of event Y, and in a particular case event Y occurred after event X had occurred, then the event X is considered to have caused the event Y. At least for some legal situations. So both the example you described using the word "lead to" and the one you described with the word "cause" could be understood as causation - in principle, and not because of the words used.

correlation vs causation.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This confirms that the borders were stripped of the soldiers, but does not necessarily mean the RUS had no soldiers other than conscripts. They could have decided to use conscripts in order not to take reserves away from their current locations, but tap a new source of manpower. That would have been smart. We cannot count on RUS taking the stupid decision always.

If there had been any semblance of regular Russian Army units in the immediate area of the incursion they would have been used right away.  For almost a day there was no meaningful counter action and it is unclear what forces Russia actually employed because the attackers pulled out ahead of any real fighting.

This provides us with evidence that not only are the borders thinly manned, but heavily reliant upon conscripts for providing border security with very little backup in the event of an incursion.

Imagine what would have happened if Ukraine pushed 2 or 3 of its new Brigades into Russia instead of a couple hundred lightly armed raiders?  Then imagine a tac nuke being used against them because that is really the only thing the Russians could do to put a stop to an action on that scale.

Steve

[Kinophile]

32 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian ships that enter drydock seem to have difficulty getting out of them. 

Russia’s Disaster-Plagued Aircraft Carrier Finally Left Its Drydock (thedrive.com)

Only that floating joke, unfortunately. The surface vessels aren't the real threat anyway, its the subs as they are currently untouchable in the open sea. The Ivans keep those pretty well maintained and in shape. Training is probably better than the surface guys and certainly good enough to launch cruise missiles at kindergartens. 

If UKR does start in on the BSF I hope they hit the sub dockyards first, esp the parts warehouses, then start plinking the fleet itself. A massive strike would do a lot of additional and continuing damage through shockwaves, debris in the water and flying shrapnel. Subs are brittle creatures...

Edited May 25, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When Russia first started deploying Cope Pyramids we had a discussion about how useful they might be.  The conclusion was that they wouldn't do much because they are just sitting on the surface.  It doesn't take much to move them out of the way.  Now, we have some visual confirmation, albeit from the rear where Ukraine is training for such things:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/13ridti/ruzzian_denfense_pyramids_beware_the_challenger_2/

Steve

IF they are actually emplaced as per the training video. But, TIR and we can assume the Ukr have some good visuals on how the Russkies are building, so - sure.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

Here's an article worth reading all the way through... the Russian MoD just published a strategic review of Russian defense doctrine based on lessons learned from this war:

https://wavellroom.com/2023/05/22/the-russian-army-rethinks-defence-doctrine/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Wavell+Room+Weekly+Digest&utm_campaign=Weekly+Content+Round+Up+(RSS+Fed)

As you read through it you'll constantly find yourself thinking "that's nice, but you should have thought about this before you trashed your military capabilities".  Because pretty much none of what the Russian study recommends is practical now, if ever.  The author of the article is kind enough to point that out at the end

The basic gist of the Russian article is to concentrate forces in key defensible spots and cover the spaces between defensive points with traditional denial tactics (obstacles, mines, artillery, and air power) and... wait for it... ROBOTS.  Yeah, they really did say that.  The theory is that the defended points will be too difficult for the enemy to penetrate, and so they will flow through the gaps and cut up along the way.  They even suggest that airborne landings in the rear of such breakthroughs play a major role, despite Russia failing at this big time in February and March under ideal circumstances.

In short, the Russian doctrine is pure fantasy.

For some reason the author didn't mention that this sort of theory was tried by the Germans in 1944 for much the same reasons that the Russians are talking about it now... inadequate forces to cover a huge front against an enemy with superior mobility and (in some places) organizational abilities.  It didn't work for them and it won't work for the Russians, especially because they are in a worse state than the Germans were from an command and control standpoint.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

IF they are actually emplaced as per the training video. But, TIR and we can assume the Ukr have some good visuals on how the Russkies are building, so - sure.

We watched the videos of them being deployed, so we have the information we need to know that is how they are in fact deployed.  They are just sitting non top of the soil, they are not dug in.  Which is how they could produce and deploy these things on such a huge scale so quickly.  Doing defensive structures correctly is time consuming and expensive.

Steve

[FancyCat]

This raid gives credit to the notion that a Patriot missile battery moved close enough to shoot down the 2 jets and helicopters and without detection or being counterattacked. Not only does Russia need to man against potential raids, they also need to pull valuable EW and ISR assets to prevent a repeat of this. 

that’s a long border. You know, I was very worried about the potential for Russia to launch raids into Ukraine, or threatening actions to fix units in place along the northern border following the initial withdrawal from Kiev, but how apt that Ukraine took the first place, gaining both PR and initiative.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Steve

There goes Polish neutrality, I guess. It has been a privillege sharing this forum with you, gentlemen.

 

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

There goes Polish neutrality, I guess. It has been a privillege sharing this forum with you, gentlemen.

 

I am missing something...?

 

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am missing something...?

 

The Unit Badge ... pretty much looks like a Polish Eagle I think is the gist of it

[Kinophile]

54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We watched the videos of them being deployed, so we have the information we need to know that is how they are in fact deployed.  They are just sitting non top of the soil, they are not dug in.  Which is how they could produce and deploy these things on such a huge scale so quickly.  Doing defensive structures correctly is time consuming and expensive.

Steve 

Yes, in the videos that we were shown we saw exactly that. 

[Kinophile]

 

Hmmmm. Video from a different angle, so possibly a different,  second USV?

Also possible that this is from an immediately prior attempt,  where the USV did not detonate, so the ship kept moving and the attack was attempted again but with the ship destroying it. 

What's very interesting is how close this USV got in open waters and low light. It feels like it was spotted by crew, not equipment. 

That bodes well, Esp for night attacks. 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Kinophile

[Seminole]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Imagine what would have happened if Ukraine pushed 2 or 3 of its new Brigades into Russia instead of a couple hundred lightly armed raiders?  Then imagine a tac nuke being used against them because that is really the only thing the Russians could do to put a stop to an action on that scale.

Imagine instead of a tactical nuke on Russian soil they put a city killer into Lvov, with a promise of more to follow if Ukraine refuses to submit.  
Is there an escalatory counter to that?  Or would Ukraine be forced to quit at the risk of literal annihilation?

The reason so much effort has gone into engineering a relatively ‘soft’ defeat for Russia is because if faced with a ‘hard’ defeat they can instead make everyone lose.  Few nations on the planet hold that card, even fewer could ever be imagined to play it.  

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

Hmmmm. Video from a different angle, so possibly a different,  second USV?

Also possible that this is from an immediately prior attempt,  where the USV did not detonate, so the ship kept moving and the attack was attempted again but with the ship destroying it. 

What's very interesting is how close this USV got in open waters and low light. It feels like it was spotted by crew, not equipment. 

That bodes well, Esp for night attacks. 

The timeline is a bit odd.  The one Russia showed was in daylight, the Ukrainian video is in twilight.  If Ukraine attacked with three USVs they weren't done all at one time.  We only have documentation of two.

I suppose what might have happened is 2x USVs attacked in twilight, Russian response was minimal, yet the attacks didn't sink the ship.  1x USV was sent in a few hours later, but the Russians were fully alert and managed to blow it up before impact.

I think it's pretty sure that Ukraine secured one hit on the Ivan Khurs (Ukraine video) and the other one likely did not.  The third one certainly did not hit.

Steve