How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It was expected Russian Volunteers will try to repeat last (considered very successfull, as word goes) action. What is interesting  now is they come back in force, with both Russian formations fighting on UA side and probably supporting Ukrainian armour, artillery etc.

The main issue is if this is again just to humiliate Kremlin or to draw back some larger Russian force to protect the border. 2-3 more such raids and Putin will have real problem with it.

Meanwhile, nice coordinated PsyOps:

 

So this is what shaping looks like.  If true, this would be a very effective way to get Russian forces moving away from the areas of a planned major offensive.  Indirect approach of employing Russian insurgents is a brilliant stroke, a proxy war within a proxy war.  Not sure if this is just hopeful rumor but we could be seeing the start of the offensive.

[akd]

Guys, the road is closed…

 

[photon]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure if this is just hopeful rumor but we could be seeing the start of the offensive

Step 1: Undecided the enemy's defensive theory as a denial of service attack agains his decision making apparatus.

[Beleg85]

46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So this is what shaping looks like.  If true, this would be a very effective way to get Russian forces moving away from the areas of a planned major offensive.  Indirect approach of employing Russian insurgents is a brilliant stroke, a proxy war within a proxy war.  Not sure if this is just hopeful rumor but we could be seeing the start of the offensive.

AFU claims only Russian citizens are taking part- but unidentified airforce was seen over region, artillery was evident too. Tanks are claimed but not seen for now.

Polish volunteer who closely cooperated with RVC made an interview something like 1,5 months ago, in which he shared some vogue info regarding previous operation from March of attacking border towns in Bryansk. It was considered great success in Ukrainian special forces (RVC does not fall under Ukrainian MoD), and many members of this unit were awarder afterwards in "silent" ceremonies. They had "much more serious plans" for the future, too. It seems we just see them, but this time other unit, Freedom Legion of Russia (regular force) seems to be part of it as well.

Also, quite possibly this operation was postponed to wait till Bakhmut falls. Russian net is raging today, and propaganda effect of capturing ruins of town in Donetsk seem to be somewhat nullified.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

Andriy Yusov, spokesman of GUR made a statement, that "operation of security zone establishing for Ukrainian citizens began. Legion "Freedon for Russia" and RVC, which consist of Russian citizens sterted operation of Belgorod oblast liberation from Putin's regime".

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/05/22/7403316/ (in UKR)

Meanwhile Russian volunteers claimed they seized Gora-Podol and entered to Graivoron

On the map from left to right - the border, border chekpoint "Graivoron", Kozinka, Glotovo, Gora-Podol, Graivoron

Also Russian volunteers made the night photo near Bezliudovka village - this is other direction - 8 km in the deep of Russian territory and 24 km south from Belgorod. Probably this is PsyOps, because the village with same name exists near Kharkiv, but it spelled like Безлюдівка, not Безлюдовка, as on the road sign

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Seems like they are trying to force Russia to respond to an attack on Holy Mother Russia, in a conveniently far out of the way place from where the real fighting is expected.

 

It could indicate that the long awaited attack is near. You don't do diversionary attacks like this if you aren't ready to go in 2-3 days.

It would be difficult to find a part of the front that is more distant on exterior lines from where the big fight is likely to be and it's being done in a way that Russia, caught up in the coils of its own propaganda, cannot ignore. Somebody in Kyiv decided to demonstrate the concept of initiative in the most humiliating way possible for Moscow.

[TheVulture]

Report on Telegram of (another) Russian Mi-8 helicopter down near Belgorod: https://t.me/bazabazon/17851 (I assume 'DRG' here is the Russian Volunteer Corps, from the context)

Quote

Special services are checking reports about a helicopter crash in the Belgorod region. According to preliminary data, it came down near the village of Prokhorovka. Considering the source, presumably we are talking about an Mi-8.

At the same time, the place of the likely crash is located about 100 km from the border and, according to preliminary data, the incident is not related to the penetration of the DRG.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

56 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If true, this would be a very effective way to get Russian forces moving away from the areas of a planned major offensive. 

Not a very novel idea, but it works. A chevauchee to burn your enemies' crops and slaughter their cattle in an undefended place is a good way to draw them away from the ramparts. 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Report on Telegram of (another) Russian Mi-8 helicopter down near Belgorod: https://t.me/bazabazon/17851 (I assume 'DRG' here is the Russian Volunteer Corps, from the context)

 

Prokhorovka (yes, this is the same famous place of great tank battle in 1943) is in 100 km from UKR border from Graivoron direction

[Offshoot]

5 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Report on Telegram of (another) Russian Mi-8 helicopter down near Belgorod: https://t.me/bazabazon/17851 (I assume 'DRG' here is the Russian Volunteer Corps, from the context)

 

Russian helicopters around Belgorod are flying pretty low

 

[Degsy]

Twitter - Jason Jay Smart

Interesting series of tweets purporting to show vehicles leaving Belgorod, helos flying over the area and a stack of printed ballot papers on a proposed referendum asking the locals, “Do you think Belgorod should leave the Russian Federation and become the independent Belgorod People’s Republic?”

ballotBelg.jfif

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Prokhorovka (yes, this is the same famous place of great tank battle in 1943) is in 100 km from UKR border from Graivoron direction

Once Rotmistrov attacks with 5th Guards Tank Army everything will be fine...

[Beleg85]

RT is already feasting on latest news in its own, "impartial" way.

Albeit, material from 2021 about children from Donbas being loaded into Ukrainian mortars will be difficult to race with. They put the bar so high.

 

[Taranis]

There is lots of continuous informations posted by Denys Davydov on his Telegram channel ! (Mi-26 deployed for example)

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, Taranis said:

There is lots of continuous informations posted by Denys Davydov on his Telegram channel ! (Mi-26 deployed for example)

Of course, this is all giant PsyOps connected to just military raid, so we should be aware a lot of info feeded by UA was likely prepared before. But still it is Russian fail.

[Joe982]

My concern is that Belgograd might be a Kremlin false flag operation. Designed to give Putin authority to do something awful.

[Beleg85]

Just now, Joe982 said:

My concern is that Belgograd might be a Kremlin false flag operation. Designed to give Putin authority to do something awful.

Out of question, too many heavy units involved, with regular troops. Whole operation can involve force up to several battalions size.

Previous attack was planned by Russian Volunteers with UA knowledge too.

[Seedorf81]

No doubt in my mind that this "Russian legion" is being set up by the Ukrainians, and I think it's not only brilliant and bold, but a bit funny, too. I mean, using Putin's own trick against him, that must piss him off big time.

On the other hand, what if the Ukranian offensive starts, this Russian legion conquers a bigger chunk of Russian territory than anyone expected, and in desperation Putin uses a tactical nuke on them?

Nobody ever dreamt of a Russian nuke to kill Russians in Russia, but now?!

[Haiduk]

According to Konstantim Mashovets article of 26th of April Operative Group "Belgorod" of Troops Grouping "West" consists of 1 motor-rifle regiment of Territorial troops and 7 different motor-rifle and Territorial Troops batatlions, Border Guard units as well as some artillery units and two helicopter field sites

Total it had 7200 of personnel, 41 tanks, 76 armored vehicles, 179 artillery systems, 15 MLRS

Helicopter site near Roven'ky village (5 km from UKR border )- 2 Ka-52, 5 Mi-24/35, 8 Mi-8

Helicopter site near Berezhnyi town (13 km from UKR border) - 4 Ka-52, 6 Mi-24/35, 7 Mi-8

Both sites in 230 km east from Graivoron 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

My concern is that Belgograd might be a Kremlin false flag operation. Designed to give Putin authority to do something awful.

UKR GUR officially says this is their operation of "security zone establishemnt", no "false flag". Looks like Budanov didn't joke when told recently about 100-km demilitarized zone on Russian territory %)

If this true, this makes sense to protect Kahrkiv from S-300 strikes from Belgorod outskirts. Also Russians in previous week activated on Kupinask direction and even could seize small Masiutivka village. This operation allows to distract some forces or at least to delay its usage if Russians had some plans on Kupiansk 

Edited May 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

My concern is that Belgograd might be a Kremlin false flag operation. Designed to give Putin authority to do something awful.

With awfull you mean things he is doing since more than a year on a daily basis or do you think about something special?

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

AFU claims only Russian citizens are taking part- but unidentified airforce was seen over region, artillery was evident too. Tanks are claimed but not seen for now.

Polish volunteer who closely cooperated with RVC made an interview something like 1,5 months ago, in which he shared some vogue info regarding previous operation from March of attacking border towns in Bryansk. It was considered great success in Ukrainian special forces (RVC does not fall under Ukrainian MoD), and many members of this unit were awarder afterwards in "silent" ceremonies. They had "much more serious plans" for the future, too. It seems we just see them, but this time other unit, Freedom Legion of Russia (regular force) seems to be part of it as well.

Also, quite possibly this operation was postponed to wait till Bakhmut falls. Russian net is raging today, and propaganda effect of capturing ruins of town in Donetsk seem to be somewhat nullified.

Of course a single raid is not likely to see major Russia muscle shifts, but is does create a lot of uncertainty in their calculus.  A few more, or if this one gets big enough and the RA will definitely have to start thinking and positioning to cover their backdoors.  That will draw combat power away from other fronts...and also mess up some static defensive networks - Russian are not so good with the moving thing.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

No doubt in my mind that this "Russian legion" is being set up by the Ukrainians, and I think it's not only brilliant and bold, but a bit funny, too. I mean, using Putin's own trick against him, that must piss him off big time.

On the other hand, what if the Ukranian offensive starts, this Russian legion conquers a bigger chunk of Russian territory than anyone expected, and in desperation Putin uses a tactical nuke on them?

Nobody ever dreamt of a Russian nuke to kill Russians in Russia, but now?!

I think some people on this thread had this listed as a serious risk for about a year now.  A Russia in free fall could definitely see Putin lobbing WMDs at his own people.  And then someone is going to get their hands on WNDs and start lobbing them at Putin.  Before you know it the damn things are swinging everywhere.

"Well so long as they stay in Russia, why do we care?"

Because they won't.

[Joe982]

13 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

With awfull you mean things he is doing since more than a year on a daily basis or do you think about something special?

Something we havnt heard of yet

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

Something we havnt heard of yet

Well falling out of a window or ending up like Hugh Despenser the Younger would be something he hasn´t shown us yet. I wouldn´t mind if he goes either way himself.