How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 Bit of a storm in a teacup,  operationally.  I'm leery of giving this too much wind. 

It's things starting to happen. It isn't much on its own, and it probably isn't the start of the big push. But it's part of a larger pattern of local counterattacks happening at an increasing tempo. And it sounds like it may be a particularly flashy instance of that pattern.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is an excellent example of what Ukraine can do in the Donbas specifically.  Hit a soft sector, obligate reinforcements, hit the reinforcements.  Worst case Russia stabilizes the situation at the expense of some other location.  Best case is the targeted sector remains weak AND there's now new weakness somewhere else.  It gives Ukraine somewhere else to repeat the process.  Do that enough times and the Russians will have to pull forces from some other sector much further away.

Ie, repeat what Monty succeeded in doing in Normandy, with much the same rationale driving the approach. Left-right-left-right-left-right-through

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

It's things starting to happen. It isn't much on its own, and it probably isn't the start of the big push. But it's part of a larger pattern of local counterattacks happening at an increasing tempo. And it sounds like it may be a particularly flashy instance of that pattern.

It seem that UA counterattack continues, some more info is coming:

 

[dan/california]

 

One can only hope these problems are widespread!

Edited May 10, 2023 by dan/california

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1656256203432013824/photo/2

 

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." - Napoleon Bonaparte

[kevinkin]

57 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

But it's part of a larger pattern of local counterattacks happening at an increasing tempo.

Recon Pull?

 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

It seem that UA counterattack continues, some more info is coming:

 

Wagner PMC's fan club will be disappointed.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Link? 

Sure.  It was posted here a few weeks ago so you might have seen it already:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/the-white-papers-exclusive-report-challenges-ukrainian-tactics-used-against-russia-1.6355219

Steve

[Offshoot]

A longer, more complete video of the Russian surrendering via drone. It looks like this happened while combat continued, unless the Russians were prepared to spend shells to try and kill the surrendering guy.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/13e9b7g/a_longer_video_of_the_russian_surrendering_to_a/

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Offshoot

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Tbh it seems specific  to the chain of tactical events. A UKR unit hit while unloading would panic and fall back, any unit would. How far and quickly they de regroup would depend on expert,  command losses and training.  Terrain slso,  if there's not much cover.

Right, but this is not what happened.  Ukraine set the conditions which caused the shift of forces and they were prepared to take advantage of opportunities this caused.  To quote some much smart people about this sort of thing...

1. “You make your own luck.” – Ernest Hemingway
2. “Chance favors the prepared mind.“ – Louis Pasteur
3. “Diligence is the mother of good luck.“ – Benjamin Franklin

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

The ZSU took tactical advantage of that moment and the local commanders prudently didn't charge on too far, nailed the imprudent Wagner counter attack and settled down.

 A more steady and careful Wagner commander would have given this a less dramatic coda.

Bit of a storm in a teacup,  operationally.  I'm leery of giving this too much wind. 

I think we're seeing the tip of an iceberg.  The stuff just posted above makes me think this even more.

Ukraine knows better than anybody other than the Russians how f'd up their lack of central command is.  Even we here have talked about the importance of smashing Russian units in the south according to where their "seams" are.  This is a classic form of warfare, therefore those mentioning it were just being astute military historians.  But in this war, the seams are incredibly important. 

The Russian volunteer quoted above states that because of egos and power games there is minimal direct communications between Russian and Wagner forces.  It's long known that Russian chains of command for higher level assets, such as artillery, are horribly inefficient and prone to failure.  Then there's the lack of concern units have for each others' well being.  The extreme of this is Wagner and DPR sending out units to man positions or conduct attacks without any communications gear and nobody bothers to check in on them.  We've also seen plenty of examples of Russian positions that seem to be located without interlinking support.  Etc.

I am sure that Ukraine is using these known weaknesses to their advantage, just as the Russian volunteer has surmised.

It could be that 3rd Assault Brigade (UA) came up with this attack plan all on its own, but I lean towards thinking they were tasked with this from theater command.  They seem to have been given plenty of resources for this attack BEFORE it took place, which has been seriously lacking for much of the Bakhmut struggle.

The evidence for this is that the Ukrainian attack was large scale (relatively speaking) and coordinated with what looks to have been a distraction attack to draw Wagner forces away from the 72nd Separate MRB (RU).  The main target was likely the 72nd because UA was aware of combat exhaustion and the reliance of Wagner protecting its flank.  Unlike other efforts we've seen, it would appear that Ukrainian ISR was explicitly deployed to ensure the Russian frontline units were isolated in depth.  Artillery was assigned to exploit anything ISR uncovered.  And it all worked very well.

Here's a summary of the battle from Task and Purpose:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-russian-72nd-separate-motorized-rifle-brigade/

And it seems from Haiduk's last post tonight that more has happened since.  Iceberg analogy applies

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

A longer, more complete video of the Russian surrendering via drone. It looks like this happened while combat continued, unless the Russians were prepared to spend shells to try and kill the surrendering guy.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/13e9b7g/a_longer_video_of_the_russian_surrendering_to_a/

 

We know this position!  We just saw video of Ukraine retaking this section where the Russian was taken prisoner.

I agree that the battle was ongoing.  I doubt Russia knew what was happening so they were unlikely targeted this one guy.

Steve

[dan/california]

Speaking of knowing positions. Is the canal the Russian 72 brigade was pushed back from the same canal we got video of in the last week of the Ukrainians using a MICLIC charge as artillery?

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Speaking of knowing positions. Is the canal the Russian 72 brigade was pushed back from the same canal we got video of in the last week of the Ukrainians using a MICLIC charge as artillery?

It is the same canal, I'm sure of it, but a little further south (1km or so) of the area retaken.

48°29'40.9"N 37°54'47.9"E

That's the only bend I see that looks the same as the video and is also on the frontline.

Steve

[kevinkin]

How much info on the war have or are getting through a keyhole that only enlightens a narrow view of reality?  In a broader sense, Plato's Cave. I think we need to be careful aligning tactical videos and their positive UA results to wider operations and assuming there a one to one correlation. These videos filming Russians die might be fun to watch, but they need to be placed into context. ISW has been careful and steadfast in this regard. They are not watching this war through a keyhole. Battlefield videos provide insight. But studying them, even all of them, since Feb 2022 would not win any war. I am not saying these films are not suggestive of what in occurring on the ground in favor of the UA.  But where are the films of Ukrainians troops getting hunted down, mauled, and crying for mommy? (n=1 is not an answer). 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

Ie, repeat what Monty succeeded in doing in Normandy, with much the same rationale driving the approach. Left-right-left-right-left-right-through

Yup.  The theory is pretty well established, the problem is pulling it off.  It requires, first and foremost, an overall view and control of a large sector of front.  Ukraine has very clear chains of command which, although imperfect, are reasonably well coordinated with each other and within each sector.  Russia?  Meh... apparently chains of command are so bourgeois!

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.amazon.com/White-Sun-War-Campaign-Casemate-ebook/dp/B0BZQ56M95/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2FBOIBNIXZYE2&keywords=mick+ryan&qid=1683776176&s=digital-text&sprefix=%2Cdigital-text%2C140&sr=1-1

White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan

After decades of poising on the brink, the United States and China finally go to war when China invades the island of Taiwan. Deploying their most futuristic technologies in this grand strategic competition of the 21st century, the stakes could not be higher. Not only the future of the Taiwanese people but the fate of the world lies in the balance.

 

Ok, I am only on chapter one,  but A, it is a really good book, and B What is his Forum name? C. last but not least, is he on the beta test team for the new version of game Steve swears he is making?

For the record, so far he seems to split the difference between team APS can solve it, and team all drones, all the time.

Edited May 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

How much info on the war have or are getting through a keyhole that only enlightens a narrow view of reality?  In a broader sense, Plato's Cave. I think we need to be careful aligning tactical videos and their positive UA results to wider operations and assuming there a one to one correlation. These videos filming Russians die might be fun to watch, but they need to be placed into context. ISW has been careful and steadfast in this regard. They are not watching this war through a keyhole. Battlefield videos provide insight. But studying them, even all of them, since Feb 2022 would not win any war. I am not saying these films are not suggestive of what in occurring on the ground in favor of the UA.  But where are the films of Ukrainians troops getting hunted down, mauled, and crying for mommy? (n=1 is not an answer). 

Correct, which is why I (and others) have repeatedly said exactly this to keep us from wandering too far afield.  In fact, I said it just a day or two ago.  For me, I'm combining the "keyhole" view with a wide array of other information and 30+ years of studying warfare.  Quite a few of those years professionally.  Looking through a keyhole is very different when you have a pretty good idea of what is taking place on the other side of the door compared to when you don't.

Speaking of ISW, there's quite a bit about in the May 10th report about this in the top section.  Titles of the two paragraphs are:

Quote

Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.

...

Pervasive issues with Russian combat capability, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks. 

While we can't know for sure what happened (yet), the information we do have seems to indicate that something larger is at work than Ukraine just getting lucky one day and routing a significant defending force (likely several hundred strong) and taking back a relatively large chunk of terrain by Bakhmut standards.

Time will tell how isolated this action is, but my guess is what we see was directed at least one level up from 3rd Assault Brigade's command as part of a larger strategy that has yet to be revealed.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Forgot to post this the other day.  France has declared Wagner a terrorist organization. 

https://www.politico.eu/article/pre-write-french-parliament-designates-wagner-a-terrorist-group/

Britain is not far behind:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-wagner-to-be-designated-as-terrorist-group-in-the-uk/ar-AA1b1jZm

One step closer to determining Russia is a State Sponsor of Terrorism.  Pretty logical considering Wagner is paid for and supplied by the Russian government.

Steve

[kevinkin]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looking through a keyhole is very different when you have a pretty good idea of what is taking place on the other side of the door compared to when you don't.

Then why look through the keyhole in the first place. Warfare Porn? 

[chuckdyke]

Not your average video I agree. 

 

[Offshoot]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Then why look through the keyhole in the first place. Warfare Porn? 

No doubt for some they are just war porn, but also:
Because no matter how narrow, it can still be a view of reality.
Because multiple narrow views of reality can be compiled to provide a wider view.
Because there is more to war than just strategic, operational and even tactical views, such as the personal view. The videos can provide a view into the personal experiences of people directly involved in the war.

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, Offshoot said:

No doubt for some they are just war porn, but also:
Because no matter how narrow, it can still be a view of reality.
Because multiple narrow views of reality can be compiled to provide a wider view.
Because there is more to war than just strategic, operational and even tactical views, such as the personal view. The videos can provide a view into the personal experiences of people directly involved in the war.

Sounds like a premise for a first person narrative book 5 years from now. I will copyright that now: "How Narrow Views win at war, business and life."

Thanks for the tip. 

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Then why look through the keyhole in the first place. Warfare Porn? 

Because we're (generally) only presented the keyhole to look through.  Ukraine keeps a tight ship in terms of OPSEC, the Russians in their own way do as well.  So either we look through the keyhole or we tune out the war and wait for another 10-20 years to learn what happened.  I'm not that patient.  Plus, I have people paying me to simulate modern warfare.  Kinda hard to do that if I don't pay attention to how it is evolving.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Sounds like a premise for a first person narrative book 5 years from now. I will copyright that now: "How Narrow Views win at war, business and life."

Thanks for the tip. 

I don't understand this.  You are also looking through keyholes, as evidenced by all the "keyhole" links you post every day.   If you don't think they are valuable, why do you spend the time reading them and posting them here?  Or do you think your recent posts on Congressional support for the war, the May 9th parade, or weapons procurement plans are something other than keyhole views of this war? 

From an understanding perspective there is no difference between an article about what some Senator said today and a video of a drone dropping a grenade.  Without context neither is very useful.  With context they can be useful.  In fact, properly used they can help establish context.

So keep posting the keyhole links you post as they are valuable to this discussion.  Just as the drone bombers and PGM strikes are.

Steve

[Offshoot]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Sounds like a premise for a first person narrative book 5 years from now. I will copyright that now: "How Narrow Views win at war, business and life."

Thanks for the tip. 

I'm sorry, I didn't realise my purpose here was to win the Ukrainian war.

I will copyright my own book: "How posting on forums wins wars, but only if you have a high horse"