How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

 

[Offshoot]

An interesting and well-referenced article based on a post by a pro-Russian blogger (https://t.me/rusengineer/612) saying that Ukraine is preparing to mount a kamikaze drone assault involving thousands of drones (at least continuous waves of drones until positions are destroyed) - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/03/24/russia-braces-for-attack-by-50000-ukrainian-kamikaze-drones-seeks-shotguns/amp/

Currently it is just chatter of course and probably exaggerated, but it does touch on some points discussed here, such as the use of drone "swarms" and how Ukraine will breach Russian defences.

The article fosuses on racing (FPV) drones, which are cheap and mass produced:

Quote

...the racing drone industry produces something like 100,000 FPV drones a month, which would cost something like $50 million in total. The last batch of military equipment alone from the U.S. was valued at $400m so hundreds of thousands more FPVs are affordable and probably available.

The limiting factors are having sufficient operators and control channel congestion:
 

Quote

While there are certainly hundreds or even thousands of FPV attack drones in play, 50,000 would mean attacks on an unprecedented scale. As Russian Engineer notes, the need for one operator per drone, and the fact that there are only so many control channels available, means that there would only be a few drones per kilometer of front at a time – but waves of them could keep coming until they destroyed every target.

Among other things, the Russian blogger suggests an immediate response would be to arm infantry with shotguns.

If nothing else, it provides a view from the other side and highlights something that is concerning the Russians; given the spate of videos of drone attacks shown here recently it is understandable.

The article also links to a Facebook post from the end of January by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about setting up dedicated drone "shock companies" (translated by Google):
 

Quote

 

The world's first UAV strike companies are being formed

The creation of shock companies was approved at the Headquarters by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / CinC AF of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny. Together with the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the State Special Forces, within the framework of the "Army of Drones" project, the Ministry of Digital has created a Coordination Headquarters with key ministries and services for the full implementation of the project. This is necessary in order to implement a number of key reforms and scale up the production of UAVs in order to provide them to the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

The most professional servicemen who will lead the shock companies have already been selected. Each of them will receive drones and ammunition, Starlink and other necessary equipment to defeat the enemy.

The main partner for the training of shock companies is the Boryviter Military School.

We do everything to provide soldiers with modern technologies

 

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Offshoot

[Harmon Rabb]

59 minutes ago, Tommyly said:

The development process for a mobile app typically starts with a concept. This concept should be well thought out and thoroughly researched before the development process begins. Once the concept has been established, the developer must create a wireframe, which is a blueprint for the app. The wireframe should include all of the features the app will have and should lay out the overall design of the app by xxxx

 

[kevinkin]

Thanks. Beat me to it. 

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Thanks. Beat me to it. 

Fortunately I don't have to hit the "Flag as Spammer" button very often.  Fortunately I remembered where it is

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

An interesting and well-referenced article based on a post by a pro-Russian blogger (https://t.me/rusengineer/612) saying that Ukraine is preparing to mount a kamikaze drone assault involving thousands of drones (at least continuous waves of drones until positions are destroyed) - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/03/24/russia-braces-for-attack-by-50000-ukrainian-kamikaze-drones-seeks-shotguns/amp/

 

I have no doubts that Ukraine is saving up something for the big push and drones are likely part of that.

There's all kinds of things that WILL happen in the future related to swarms to deal with these sorts of limitations, but I don't think anybody has it in place yet.

For example, to overcome the radio channel congestion you can fly a bunch of drones using one for communications with the Operator and have the rest follow (in some sort of formation) with a link to the primary.  Very low power/range links on different frequencies would keep the swarm together.  If the primary gets knocked out then a new primary is activated from another drone in the swarm. 

Swarms, by their nature, solve the Operator problem because it's no longer 1:1, instead being 1:many.  The Operator can either guide each one drone at a time or AI could help with the load.  For example, Operator designates a target, specifies the number of drones, guides one in manually, all designated drones follow in turn or en mas.

Which is why I've said so many times before that nations that want to retain the ability to use military forces need to develop or purchase adequate defenses from drones or they are out of the game.  And they had better do it fast.  Drone swarms as I described already exist and the US military is definitely trying to lead the way:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Many of us have checked in with Mick Ryan's Twitter account throughout this war as he was one of the earliest voices that "got it".  Good questions too.  Not surprising as the interviewer is a CMer   The result is a nice overview of the upper stratosphere view of how things are going.

Steve

[Fenris]

ISW has an interesting paragraph re a PMC being setup in Crimea.  Hopefully an indicator of more internal factional machinations and friction.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Fenris

[chuckdyke]

It is a joke.

 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Fenris said:

ISW has an interesting paragraph re a PMC being setup in Crimea.  Hopefully an indicator of more internal factional machinations and friction.

This PMC, named "Convoy" will be established by man, close to Prigozhyn, so this will be a "branch" of Wagner, but under the rule of Sergey Aksyonov, so-called "prime-minister of Crimea". It's also says that Aksyonov take a side of Prigozhyn's faction. 

[Haiduk]

Eternal classic

...100 years ago

...and now 

 

[Yet]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Eternal classic

...100 years ago

...and now 

 

hahaha, main difference is that the helmets have improved. 

[Haiduk]

Next T-90M is disabled (likely ran over TM-62, lost the track and got damage). Russians try to evacuate it with BREM vehicile

 

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

During last two days Russians conducted next decisisve attempts of assaults of Bakhmut and it outskirts. Their main efforts were directed on Khromove and Ivanivske villages, also there were heavy clashes between and along Korsuns'koho and Komunal'na streets in the SW part of town were was MiG-17 monumet. Wagners also tried to infiltrate through Bakmutivka river from captured eastern part of Bakhmut.

Most of enemy attacks were repelled, though Russians could seize several quarters in southern part of Bakhmut from the side of Opytne.   

Russian heavy mortars 2S4 or aviation conducted several strikes at multi-storey houses near the center of Bakhmut and partially collapsed its. 

Here UKR soldiers go from Bakhmut to Khromove and on the first seconds of video soldier says that "we pushed them on 1 km"

Servicemen of 11th Border Guard detachment fires from captured Metis-M ATGM from almost the center of town toward Bakhmutivka river

General Staff claimed about next reducing of Russian atatcks

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

Asks the question: Are drones just one delivery method for AI? That is, drones are not revolutionary (even with low cost, ease of handling, and swarming tactics), it's AI for use across many additional products for war that is revolutionary.

 https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/3/24/ukraine-a-living-lab-for-ai-warfare

What makes this conflict unique is the unprecedented willingness of foreign geospatial intelligence companies to assist Ukraine by using AI-enhanced systems to convert satellite imagery into intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance advantages. U.S. companies play a leading role in this. The company Palantir Technologies, for one, has provided its AI software to analyze how the war has been unfolding, to understand troop movements and conduct battlefield damage assessments. Other companies such as Planet Labs, BlackSky Technology and Maxar Technologies are also constantly producing satellite imagery about the conflict. Based on requests by Ukraine, some of this data is shared almost instantly with the Ukrainian government and defense forces.

While the character of the war may not yet be determined by AI, the Russia-Ukraine war is akin to a laboratory setting in which many companies and governments are able to constantly train and test AI systems for a wide range of capabilities, functionalities and applications.

This is the tragic paradox. Each day that the conflict continues, and human beings are losing their lives in horrible ways, AI systems are being trained with real data from a real battleground — not to stop the suffering and end the war, but to become more effective in fighting the next one: the AI war.
 

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

Rare footage of Strela-10 in UKR service

 

[Haiduk]

Dirt and often even asphalt roads in small villages are completely broken by heavy tracked vehilces, rains and snow.

 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This PMC, named "Convoy" will be established by man, close to Prigozhyn, so this will be a "branch" of Wagner, but under the rule of Sergey Aksyonov, so-called "prime-minister of Crimea". It's also says that Aksyonov take a side of Prigozhyn's faction. 

These PMCs definitely have a domestic intent.  For one,  they effectively become bodyguard forces,  Esp against windows.  It's interesting that a lot if the higher echelon RUS leaders have their own PMCs,  often not large but still,  armed organised and paid separate from the state. If I was the head of Gazprom and observing fellow Oligarchs suddenly deciding to mate with the ground from 5 stories up,  I absolutely would want my own protectors. 

The other aspect t is Prigs steady attempts to build a friendly territory base away from Moscow. He's made good (albeit transactional) relationships elsewhere around the edges of SMO and Crimea fits that pattern. Stay Geographically close to the war held keep him "legitimate"  through proximity. 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

It's interesting that a lot if the higher echelon RUS leaders have their own PMCs,

In Ukraine the same. But these "court hosts" of oligarch had status of "private security companies". In best times Donetsk oligarch Rinat Akhmetov had own private army of criminals and semi-criminals in number at least 500 men (but there were rumors even more 2000), organized in "Lux" company. Since 2014 many of them enlisted to "Vostok" battalion and other separatist units. 

Also there was information that former president Poroshenko also have personal bodyguards from private company, except of State Guard Service, appointed to this work. As if exactly his personal guards, weared in uniform of Border Guards detained and expelled Mikheil Saakashvili to Poland, puttin a bag on his head.  

Edited March 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

In the night from 23rd to 24th of March Russians have conducted combined strike operation agasinst border districts of Sumy oblast. In short period of time 5 Russian Su-35S over Russian territory dropped 10 guided bombs - analogs of JDAM-ER and launched one Kh-31 anti-radar missile, also there were launced 80 Grad rockets and finally several Shakheds

Result of strike on Bilopillia - small border town

Officially was reported about 2 killed (one of them police officer) and about dozen wounded.

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Next T-90M is disabled (likely ran over TM-62, lost the track and got damage). Russians try to evacuate it with BREM vehicile

 

 

I find the music for this video an improvement over the other ones

Steve

[cesmonkey]

https://tass.ru/politika/17367387

Quote

MOSCOW, March 25. /TASS/. The founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin said that after the end of the contract and work in the special military operation zone (SVO), more than 5 thousand former prisoners were pardoned.

 

[Haiduk]

Interesting details from "Caesar" howitzer commander:

The commander told recently he had "Msta-S" and it's deployment time was 10 minutes. "Caesar" can be deployed for 2 minutes. When they got an order to move on Vuhledar direction, they were able to open fire since 40 minutes after arrival to new theater. Intensivity of fire was too high - they had fire tasks both day and night and were shooting about 150 shells for 24 hours.  

Edited March 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Dirt and often even asphalt roads in small villages are completely broken by heavy tracked vehilces, rains and snow.

 

Yes, I think most people believe paved roads are safe in the mud season.  That is not necessarily true.  Where I live there is a period of time in the Spring when heavy vehicles (standard is anything over 23,000 pounds) are prohibited on certain roads because the soil under the roads is less stable and/or the engineering is not sufficiently strong enough to handle the conditions.  This is done to prevent the pavement from breaking apart, either catastrophically or over time.

Steve