How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Summary today, describes how he makes his maps.  Plus has nice snippet from a PBS story from Aug 2022 basically showing how little RU has gained since it's still fighting over the starting points for getting to any real objectives.  So now the starting points are the objectives.  Kinda like Bastogne -- necessary for German advance but otherwise doesn't really change anything on its own.  Also says there's reports that UKR now thinking about attacking Wagner more forcefully because maybe this is actually a weak area to be exploited considering how exhausted and overextended Wagner is.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/23/2159739/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-only-has-one-army-Bakhmut-may-be-the-place-where-they-lose-it

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe Israel too...kinda...depending who you ask.

Timor Leste/East Timor? It's not a model of wealth and prosperity (not helped by Australia seizing the one valuable natural resource they had access to) but it is at least reasonably stable and sort-of non-violent.

It fits most of Steve's model too - the local population were definitely up for something different, and there was a foreign military presence. The exception is that the foreign military was (generally) welcome and focussed on external security (**** you, Indonesia) rather than internal control.

Of course, this is of approximately zero relevance to a speculative effort to reengineer Russia.

Edited March 23, 2023 by JonS

[Eddy]

Don't think this has been posted before:

Indian Air Force not getting any delivery of S400s this year. Could be because they are being allocated to Ukraine. Or it could be that the Russians are having trouble producing them because of sanctions.

 

I know this has happened in previous wars (IIRC Royal Navy requisitioned a few battlecruisers in FWW for example) but it's probably worth keeping an eye on this to see if there are more instances of this occurring as it may point to production issues.

A little bit more here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-bakhmut-offensive-slowing-says-us-thinktank-eu-leaders-gather-for-summit?page=with:block-641c5a358f0893440cc9fd74#block-641c5a358f0893440cc9fd74

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Eddy

[Billy Ringo]

Did Zelensky ever talk to Xi?  Were supposed to talk after Xi's meeting with Putin but can't find anything on a call.

And then there's this, Xi not wasting any time taking advantage of Russia's newfound problems.   Et tu, Stan?

Xi snubbed Putin after their summit, calling a meeting of Central Asian countries as part of an audacious power play

https://www.yahoo.com/news/xi-snubbed-putin-summit-calling-123050319.html

Edited March 23, 2023 by Billy Ringo
Russia

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, JonS said:

Timor Leste/East Timor? It's not a model of wealth and prosperity (not helped by Australia seizing the one valuable natural resource they had access to) but it is at least reasonably stable and sort-of non-violent.

It fits most of Steve's model too - the local population were definitely up for something different, and there was a foreign military presence. The exception is that the foreign military was (generally) welcome and focussed on external security (**** you, Indonesia) rather than internal control.

Of course, this is of approximately zero relevance to a speculative effort to reengineer Russia.

Another one similar to Timor is Kosovo.  Local population had the motivation, foreign military kept out the oppressor rather than dictate local decisions.  Kosovo had the advantage/incentive of organizing themselves in a particular way so as to become part of a larger alliance that would ensure their former oppressors wouldn't gain the upper hand again.

The other model is similar to Kosovo but without the bloodshed.  Think Baltics and former Warsaw Pact countries in particular.  Georgia... kinda sorta.  The Stans, on the other hand, took a much slower route.  However, thanks to Russia's imperialist and racist nature, there seems to be more motion there now than before.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

A fascinating aspect of this war is the role Twitter and social media has played in supporting Ukraine.  True to form, whenever there is some good trying to be done there's people trying to scam off of it.  Seems this is the case with James Vasquez...

The problem with this is most of the information coming out against him is, itself, not verifiable.  Even more so, quite a lot of what I saw and where I saw it is in the extreme right-wing Internet sources that are making absolutely no attempts to hide their own agendas.  One of them has their documentation of Vasquez as a fraud right up there with attempts to prove things like pictures out of Bucha were faked. 

When Alex Jones picks up a story and runs with it... well, it complicates things

My take on it is Vasquez is someone who is a headcase (I just found a video of him going nuts on someone on a NYC subway last June) and did, in fact, go to Ukraine an did, in fact, get into the frontline during the early chaotic days.  He fairly soon went back to the US.  I stopped looking at his Tweets around that time.  At some point he returned to Ukraine and at that point seems to have gone over to being a fraud.  He seems to have gone around in the rear so he looked more real than the other posers, but that was all he did.  I started looking at his Tweets a couple of weeks ago and they felt... odd.  Especially when he posted about Davinci.  Not totally red flag waiving wrong, but odd.  Now I know why.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Don't think this has been posted before:

Indian Air Force not getting any delivery of S400s this year. Could be because they are being allocated to Ukraine. Or it could be that the Russians are having trouble producing them because of sanctions.

 

I know this has happened in previous wars (IIRC Royal Navy requisitioned a few battlecruisers in FWW for example) but it's probably worth keeping an eye on this to see if there are more instances of this occurring as it may point to production issues.

A little bit more here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-bakhmut-offensive-slowing-says-us-thinktank-eu-leaders-gather-for-summit?page=with:block-641c5a358f0893440cc9fd74#block-641c5a358f0893440cc9fd74

 

Interestingly, this just came up in yesterday's ISW report where Shoigu just announced creating a brand new air defense division this year.

It cited an article from last April stated that India received 1 out of 5 of its deliveries, but there would be a "slight" delay because of the war:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/delivery-of-second-s-400-squadron-could-see-a-slight-delay-due-to-russia-ukraine-war/articleshow/90873442.cms?from=mdr

It doesn't look good for India getting the rest of their systems.

The relevant ISW reporting here:

The Russian military is unlikely to generate such forces within several years, let alone by the end of 2023. Russia’s defense industrial base has historically experienced multi-year delays in developing advanced air defense systems, even before the strict sanctions and exacerbated resource constraints resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Current Russian air defense brigades and regiments received their S-400 systems up to several years behind schedule.[7] The Russian military had only fielded the S-500 system, which was reportedly supposed to enter production in 2015, in one Russian air defense army by 2021.[8] Russia also delayed its planned delivery of a second S-400 battery to India in 2022 due to constraints caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[9] Russia may eventually grow its air defense forces as part of a larger effort to recreate a large conventional military in the long term, however. Shoigu’s announcement is similar to his previous announcement at an MoD collegium in December 2022 in which Shoigu stated that Russia seeks to form 17 new maneuver divisions over several years.[10]

The formation of new Russian air defense and airlift units will not increase Russian combat power in Ukraine this year. Shoigu’s statement is likely intended to reassure the Russian people that the Russian MoD is continuing to develop the Russian military as a world-class military power to offset perceptions about Russian military failures in Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Damage control, it seems.  Ripley's Heroes has been suspected of being a fraud by some and their association with Vasquez wasn't helping.  Better to try and pawn the fraud off as PTSD than outright swindling.

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I can think of no examples of re-engineering a country without militarily occupying it.  WW1 Germany and post-1990 Russia are good examples of unsuccessful attempts to influence things positively from the outside.  Much of the rest of the world's troubled countries also have pretty poor results to show for themselves.

That was my thought too.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The lesson here is that the best chance of success comes from countries where the people within fully sign onto positive change, they lead the pursuit of change themselves, and they voluntarily seek good outside partnerships to get them there.

Yep. Even @The_Capt's and my success examples of occupied countries it was the motivation of the citizens that made the difference.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

  I see no hope of Russia being one of those states any time soon if ever.

Any time soon is bleak. I worry about ever but forever is a long time.

[Eddy]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interestingly, this just came up in yesterday's ISW report where Shoigu just announced creating a brand new air defense division this year.

Thanks. So what we know is the Russians are unable or unwilling to fulfil the order for S400s for India. This could be because they:

• Need for Ukraine
• Need them for a new air defence division (which may or may not be a lie - it's Shoigu after all)
• Are unable to produce enough new ones to fulfil there own needs for the war and India's
• Are unable to produce any
• Something else I haven't thought of

Will be interesting to see if this 'new defence division' is ever created 

[Haiduk]

Looks like Russian offensive on Avdiivka by level of disastreous losses can ovecome Vuhledar

I will not post all these Russian milbloggers TG screens, just some takes:

- about 40 minutes 5 UKR tanks were calmly disassembling RUS positions from 800 m and almost didn't change positions. No Mavics lefts with dropping systems to hit them. Artillery is unable to hit even stationary target. ATGM crews on positions pissed off to leave blindages and stand to launchers under tanks fire

20th of March

22nd of March

....I had very hard moment in my conversation - 1st Slaviansk brigade (DPR), which is working now on Avdiivka direction. Losses. Heavy fights. Heaviest. They assault without artillery support. There are many controversal and even unlawful acts against their own [means that DPR commanders keep remains of "domestic" DPR veterans and sent to one-way assaults Russian mobiks under threaten of punishment] 

... Tragical news - large losses in 1st Slaviansk brigade. Alas, I have no rights to say anymore. 

23rd of March

Avdiika area, DPR

Sitauation on direction - "pizdyets" /rus. filthy lang. means "total ****...g sh...t and complete fail"

/if somebody else thinks, that we have learned something in a year/

Edited March 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Thanks. So what we know is the Russians are unable or unwilling to fulfil the order for S400s for India. This could be because they:

• Need for Ukraine
• Need them for a new air defence division (which may or may not be a lie - it's Shoigu after all)
• Are unable to produce enough new ones to fulfil there own needs for the war and India's
• Are unable to produce any
• Something else I haven't thought of

Will be interesting to see if this 'new defence division' is ever created 

This ties in neatly with Billy Ringo's posts about supply chain considerations.  It's one thing to have 98% of what you need to build something and get caught short on that 2%.  US automotive production being stalled out by shortages of chips meant that the cars could be built, but not delivered.  The limited nature of the shortages allowed the manufacturers to concentrate on figuring out ways to get what they needed, which is what you want in a crisis situation.

Russia is in an entirely different situation.  Because it allowed itself to be highly reliant upon foreign produced parts and resources, it is likely that the S-400 systems require sourcing a lot more stuff.  Even if it is something simple like stainless steel lock washers, the more things that have to be sourced the more effort it takes and the more difficulty it takes to plan production around whatever isn't in hand.  Sanctions can be ducked selectively and with increased effort and expense.  The more things Russia needs that it isn't getting from its previous sources, the more uncertain production becomes.

This is the sort of argument that is missed by people who say "sanctions don't work because Russia can just go around them".  Selectively?  Perhaps.  On a large scale?  Very difficult if not impossible.  And in either case, it increases costs and decreases productivity.

Even if Russia could source everything it needs for the S-400s (including production machinery), it is entirely possible that the cost of delivering it to India is in excess of the agreed to price.  Meaning, deliveries would cost Russia money instead of earning it income.

Steve

[Haiduk]

The screen from Russian TG for 23rd of March 2022

Today's video from Maryinka. The town doesn't captured yet. Our troops push from east and advance in the town. On the video they say strightly, that several days more need to mop-up Maryinka completely. 

Since year DPR/Russians could seize about half of almost completely ruined town. 

[Beleg85]

Perfect. On the meeting of joint goup of military and industry officials, Mededeev reads letter-by-letter short memorandum of Stalin from 1941. At the end, he adds: "You know what happenned to those who didn't deliver promised results."

 

Traditional Muscovite way of motivating employees may soon come back in style. Because Fruity Thursdays became too much passe anyway.

[Haiduk]

General Staff stepped back with own information about Russian withdrawing from Nova Kakhovka. They told "informatin was issued due to incorrect interpretation of available information"

Also in TG this info has appeared, which can to clarify what really could take place

Nova Kakhovka.

This is about forward  [probably means "frontline, army"] units. In Nova Kahovka to this time remian LDNR troops, collaborationists and some ot Russians [maybe Rosgvardiya], but forward units indeed had been withdrawn

 

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Found this quite interesting. On Dhzankoi, Crimea

 

 

[Haiduk]

Soldiers of 2nd company of 2nd assault battlion of 3rd assault brigade "Azov" after action. He told they assaulted Russian VDV and they are relly suckers - nobody didn't leave own blindages and they just were thrown by thermobaric grenades. Only one at the end tried to shot back, but also was killed with two grenades. UKR soldiers seized Russian small arms - they carry AK-15 rifle and some optic device on tripod, also soldier says other guys from their group carry Russian MG and SVD.  

In previos video about assault actions from 3rd "Azov" brigade they also said that Russian VDV unlike Wagners didn't attack like zombie - they more trained, use more tactical schemes, they have better fire supoprt between their pairs and triples, but they have fear of death (unlike Wagners under "magic potion") and often can't stand during intensive contact   

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

General Staff stepped back with own information about Russian withdrawing from Nova Kakhovka. They told "informatin was issued due to incorrect interpretation of available information"

Also in TG this info has appeared, which can to clarify what really could take place

Nova Kakhovka.

This is about forward  [probably means "frontline, army"] units. In Nova Kahovka to this time remian LDNR troops, collaborationists and some ot Russians [maybe Rosgvardiya], but forward units indeed had been withdrawn

 

 

OK, that's what I thought.  Someone misinterpreted "withdraw" for "abandon".  Not the same thing.

This is still interesting information if it is (now) accurate.  My interpretation is regular Russia Army units that have some combat value have been withdrawn from Nova Kakhova leaving only poor quality forces to man the defenses.  The withdrawn forces are likely going to be fed into one of the usual meat grinders or take the place of units going into the meat grinders.  Either way, it is another sign that the battles in the Donbas are thinning the lines elsewhere.  Russia has learned nothing from Kharkiv.  Which is good

I suspect that the withdrawal of units from Nova Kakhova is not isolated.  I'd guess that previous or current thinning of defenses along the Dnepr is the norm.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Other two tough videos with drone bombing

Drone of 30th mech.brigade chases Russians, drops FRAG grenade and forces them to hide in blindage. Russian thought, the drone is empty but this was fatal mistake - it kept thermobaric grenade for this...

10th mountain-assault brigade makes carnage with probably some large drone, loaded with large number of grenades

 

[Haiduk]

SBU strike drones group "White wolfs", equipped with R18 bombers, for five days destroyed and damaged next 22 targets - 14 tanks, 4 BMP, 1 mine-cleaning vehcile, 2 blindages, 1 ammo dump

 

[Huba]

First Slovakian MiGs are already in Ukraine, and it seems they were flown there instead of being dismantled and towed/ trucked. Another red line crossed and still not WW3. 
Also, while it's definitely not my area of expertise, the hardpoints visible at 0:28 looks rather suspicious, not very soviet at all.

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

 

Other video of UKR maritime drones attack on Sevastopol two days ago. Looks like one hit some object near entrance to the bay....

  

 

In this time was used other, smaller type of drones, on the picture - the grey one

 

 

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

First Slovakian MiGs are already in Ukraine, and it seems they were flown there instead of being dismantled and towed/ trucked. Another red line crossed and still not WW3. 
Also, while it's definitely not my area of expertise, the hardpoints visible at 0:28 looks rather suspicious, not very soviet at all.

 

Very good. When are the polish ones arriving? Should be the next days also?

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

10th mountain-assault brigade makes carnage with probably some large drone, loaded with large number of grenades

No doubt a commercial drone.  Like some others I've seen, this one uses the "Auxiliary Light" feature to signal the drone to drop a bomb.

The footage was probably several drones put together.  Based on the lack of movement of survivors between some of the shots it looks like 2 drones operating at roughly the same time with maybe 3-4 bombs each.  Just a guess.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

SBU strike drones group "White wolfs", equipped with R18 bombers, for five days destroyed and damaged next 22 targets - 14 tanks, 4 BMP, 1 mine-cleaning vehcile, 2 blindages, 1 ammo dump

If there was any doubt at all, this right here shows why defending against drones needs to be the #1, #2, and probably #3 priorities for any nation interested in winning wars.  That is an entire tank company wiped out by inexpensive and easily replaceable drones.

The manufacturer boasts:

Quote

“We calculated that $1 invested in the production of an R18 drone causes $1,000 worth of damage to the enemy. If a drone hits a piece of equipment like a tank, it pays for itself in one flight. After all, destroyed equipment costs millions, but the equipment we work with costs tens or hundreds of thousands.”

Well, they might have underestimated their value.

Steve