How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Victor Perelygin, chief of staff of reactive artillery battalion of 5th tank brigade, 36th CAA, Eastern military district. Was killed on 11th of March 2023, more likely near Vuhledar.

 

[JonS]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The thing I find funny about this particular one

I thought his description of Russian mil materiel as worthless to be giggleworthy

[Boche]

23 hours ago, MikeyD said:

In Germany's defense, their operating assumption for 30 years was nobody in their right mind would start a major land war on the European continent in this day and age. Unfortunately, the most relevant part of that was 'in their right mind'. They didn't factor in Putin's creeping senility turning him reckless in his old age.

Also in their defense this seems to be the thinking of the miltaries of western europe, bar maybe the UK and France who have actually seen some sort of moderate combat in the last decades. Personally I find everything said in the article way to familiar...

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

How does this FUBAR the whole Russian taking over the UNSC chair thing?

I don't think it does anything as the entire structure of the UN is built around the concept of impunity of its members.  Just look at the countries that get on the UN Human Rights Council.  Currently China, which is engaging in genocide, sits on it along with Cuba, an overtly repressive state.  Lots of African countries with questionable records as well.  However, Russia was kicked off that one because of the war. 

The problem with the Security Council is that it's set up to never have accountability.  There is no proceedure for kicking them out without fully kicking them out of the entire UN General Assembly.  That's not going to happen.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger is alarming as if Ukraine began to transfer troops from Belarusian border to frontline. Including with "dread" 47th mech.brigade. As if units have been moving to Kupiansk, Bakhmut and Vuhledar directions

[Eddy]

This from a Guardian reporter. Could be about right, could be inflated. Time will tell. Would explain why Ukr have decided to stay there tho.

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, JonS said:

I thought his description of Russian mil materiel as worthless to be giggleworthy

HAH!  I missed that angle!

In the "What if Top Gun was Russian" video there was something about that too.  When the prospective pilots asked about Ukrainian air defenses the instructor said not to worry because they are protected by the inferior S-300 system.  Not a threat to us at all.  Then he was asked about Ukraine attacking Russia's bases and the instructor said not to worry because they were protected by the S-300 system, the most advanced air defenses in the world.

Damn that video was funny enough to watch a third time!  Even my wife got a chuckle out of it.

Steve

[The_Capt]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think it does anything as the entire structure of the UN is built around the concept of impunity of its members.  Just look at the countries that get on the UN Human Rights Council.  Currently China, which is engaging in genocide, sits on it along with Cuba, an overtly repressive state.  Lots of African countries with questionable records as well.  However, Russia was kicked off that one because of the war. 

The problem with the Security Council is that it's set up to never have accountability.  There is no proceedure for kicking them out without fully kicking them out of the entire UN General Assembly.  That's not going to happen.

Steve

So an ICC indicted person could technically sit at the head of the UNSC?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council#:~:text=The president represents the Security,UNSC and decide voting order.

Getting a whole League of Nations feel at the moment.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So I disagree that the UA needs to solve for "larger scale" attacks, they need to solve for deeper scale attacks, but I think they have a head start on this.

As with everything, there is a downside/limitation for any approach to any challenge.  Corrosive warfare has two issues

1.  having enough resources to be the one who corrodes instead of being the one corroded.  It's all well and great to have a 1:10 casualty ratio in your favor, but if you run out of ammo or men or space or will or anything necessary to sustain corrosive warfare BEFORE the enemy, well then you're "in the soup" as they say.

2.  it is SLOW and subtle, which means if patience and faith (by ones own people or allies) are important there could be non-combat factors that undermine corrosive progress.  You can be happily plodding along at 1:10 casualty ratio and still get the "what have you done for me lately?" attitude from important domestic and/or allied stakeholders.  This happens in corporations all the time where the signs of an eventual success are there, but shareholders sour on how long it will take and pull their investments and/or start to interfere with the successful recipe.

Time is on Ukraine's side more than Russia's, but it isn't indefinite.  I am increasingly concerned that Ukraine has to show some major success this year on a scale to either match or at least seem significant in comparison to last year.  Corrosive warfare isn't going to produce that result on its own.

The best scenario is that Russia weakens itself so much that it collapses without Ukraine having to do much of anything.  I don't see that happening. The next best case is that it weakens itself so much that Ukraine can kick the door in somewhere and Russia won't be able to respond in a meaningful way.  The third best case is that Ukraine kicks several doors open a little bit, thus giving the impression that collapse is possible in a few months' time.

Ukraine is going to have to attack Russia's entrenched forces this year regardless of the state of corrosion of Russian forces.  Therefore, Ukraine needs to figure out a way to blow open Russian defenses without expending its offensive strength in the process.  If it can do that I think deep scale exploitation is almost a given.  If it can't, then I'm not sure how much success Ukraine can hope to have this year.

Steve

[Eddy]

Article in The Economist backing up what has been said here about the cultural conflict within the AFU between the Soviet-style rigid, sequential, top down thinking and the 'mission command' thinking (I think it's free to read) 

Ukraine’s army must shed its Soviet legacy, says a military expert | The Economist

Interestingly, the author states that in some cases modern technology is hindering, rather than enabling the mission command conducting of operations as the higher ups use the battle information to micro manage the lower echelons. Also states that some junior officers have started to ignore orders from above.    

[Butschi]

23 hours ago, MikeyD said:

In Germany's defense, their operating assumption for 30 years was nobody in their right mind would start a major land war on the European continent in this day and age. Unfortunately, the most relevant part of that was 'in their right mind'. They didn't factor in Putin's creeping senility turning him reckless in his old age.

I think at least as important is the fact that 'nobody in their right mind' also applies to Germans joining the Bundeswehr. This whole conscript army thing kind of worked when there was still the Red Army on the other side of the iron curtain. Contrary to other western armies the Bundeswehr never made the transition to a professional army. Even now conscription is officially only suspended not abolished. Already back when I was drafted (end of the 90s) you were either stupid or very convinced that joining the Bundeswehr is your duty as a proper citizen. But most my age who had a higher education refused to go to the military "on grounds of conscience" and did alternative civilian service instead. Nobody was interested in spending 15 month first being yelled at during basic training by people who are much more stupid than you are - and know it but now want to show you that finally they are in power - and afterwards getting a bore out from doing nonsensical guard duty and stuff like that.

So, since conscription is suspended the Bundeswehr is in deep trouble. It's really not a funding issue. Look at the French army, its budget is in the same ball park. Instead, being surrounded by friends and "nobody in their right mind would start a major land war on the European continent in this day and age" few Germans feel compelled to enlist even if they want to do something for their country or society. Then there are structural issues: The administration was never much restructured and is now totally bloated compared to the size of the army. They also don't get the real talents because those get jobs in industry which are better payed and have a better reputation. The Bundeswehr itself hasn't managed to shed its bad reputation from when it was a conscript army, either - the half-hearted commercials we see every now and then are more cringe-worthy than inviting. Instead it now appears to many as a gathering place for Nazis and other shady people. (Apologies to the honest professionals who happen to read this.)

On top of this, Germany hasn't really decided what mission the Bundeswehr actually has nowadays. Classical national defence with most classical capabilities, i.e. mechanized ground forces, air force, navy, you name it. Plus a growing number of foreign deployments that require more mobile forces. The final blow was a series of defence secretaries who lacked in competence for the job but not in political ambition - defence secretary always was a position that supposedly was a career step on your way to becoming chancellor ("supposedly" because I can't remember the last time one actually became chancellor...).

[Haiduk]

FPV of the siege of Russian blindage. UKR soldiers came to it from back and throw grenades inside, adding rifle fire. Likely blindage enough wide and deep, that even after several grenades one Russian soldier tried to crawl out from the "secret hole" from other side, but UKR trooper spotted the movement and shot Russian

Filmed by special purpose battalion "Dyke pole" ("Wild Fields") of special purpose brigade named after Ivan Bohun. Location probably between Soledar and Siversk.

The same vide via nitter if it's limited to watching: https://nitter.net/antiputler_news/status/1636799665931681808#m

Edited March 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

FPV of the siege of Russian blindage. UKR soldiers came to it from back and throw grenades inside, adding rifle fire. Likely blindage enough wide and deep, that even after several grenades one Russian soldier tried to crawl out from the "secret hole" from other side, but UKR trooper spotted the movement and shot Russian

Filmed by special purpose battalion "Dyke pole" ("Wild Fields") of special purpose bigade named afetr Ivan Bohun. Location probably between Soledar and Siversk.

https://nitter.net/antiputler_news/status/1636799665931681808#m

These trench videos are brutal.  If the defender has lost the ability to fire or retreat, they get slaughtered.  The Russian trying to crawl out the back way might have been too stunned by all the grenades to be thinking correctly, because if he had the only thing he could have done was yell in hopes of surrendering.  I'm not sure that would have worked in this particular case, but it had more chance of success of crawling out a small hole.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

I love that the Ukrainian MoD has not lost its sensor of humor even a year into this horrible war!  And if there were any doubts...

Steve

[Huba]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Speaking of Junk, Here is Peskov's comment on Poland and Slovakia sending the MiGs.

Source: Slovakia Will Send Entire Fleet of MiG-29 Jets to Ukraine (Yahoo News)

Interesting how when this war started and the idea of sending these aircraft came up Russia kept beating the "escalation" drum. Now that it looks like it will officially happen and the Kremlin is powerless to stop it, none of these planes will affect the war.

Here's hoping Mr.Peskov will be in a position to explain how useless F-16s are, now that it looks like the Fighter aircraft taboo is starting to vanish.

Here's a detailed breakdown of the Slovakian weapons package for Ukraine:

- 10 MiGs in flying condition
- 3 MiGs without engines
- spare parts, ground equipment, fuel for the aircraft
- 2 Kubs + radar (not sure if launchers or batteries) 
- 200 missiles for the Kub

Info from Artur Micek

[Maciej Zwolinski]

34 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Filmed by special purpose battalion "Dyke pole"

While that is a very beautiful name, having deep cultural connotations with Polish history and culture, I cannot help but wonder how it sounds to English ears.

[Eddy]

3 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

While that is a very beautiful name, having deep cultural connotations with Polish history and culture, I cannot help but wonder how it sounds to English ears.

Put it this way, I wouldn't google it at work!

[Harmon Rabb]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here's a detailed breakdown of the Slovakian weapons package for Ukraine:

- 10 MiGs in flying condition
- 3 MiGs without engines
- spare parts, ground equipment, fuel for the aircraft
- 2 Kubs + radar (not sure if launchers or batteries) 
- 200 missiles for the Kub

Info from Artur Micek

Think I'm going to enjoy a few glasses of Guinness to celebrate Saint Patrick's day, and the fighter jets coming from Poland and Slovakia to Ukraine.Thanks for that info, Cheers Huba!

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Put it this way, I wouldn't google it at work!

HR would ever believe you...

[Battlefront.com]

Business Insider has an article declaring the Russian Winter offensive is over and done with.  Yeah, shocker for us here, I know, but still worth reading.  At the end you might note that Kofman is taking up a slightly different position than 1:1 casualty ratios that came out of his group's travel to Bakhmut:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-new-ukraine-offensive-has-likely-already-fizzled-western-intel-2023-3

And while you're over at Business Insider, an interesting piece on the aerial version of "the tank is dead".  Basically, CAS in a contested environment is going to be costly and ineffective.  Of course we have to keep in mind that Ukraine doesn't have the SEAD capabilities of NATO, but the overall points raised here are still fundamentally valid (i.e. can't half ass it against good air defenses).

https://www.businessinsider.com/fighter-jets-unable-to-provide-close-air-support-over-ukraine-2023-3

Steve

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

While that is a very beautiful name, having deep cultural connotations with Polish history and culture, I cannot help but wonder how it sounds to English ears.

1st special purpose brigade named after Ivan Bohun has some ambigous reputation as I can judge of some twitter stories. It was created after the war began and it was formed from volunteers (maybe it was a rumors, but as if some number of personnel were former servicemen, convicted for different crimes during ATO), among them were many foreign citizens of 19 countries. I read about problems with discipline, drugs (espacially among foreign fighters) some inner conflicts even several episodes of pillage. I don't know how things are now. Maybe after many foreigners left the unit it became more controlled. 

Despite status of "special purpose" they are not SOF and not under GUR, they subordinated to Ground Forces Command.  

Their commander was criticised by some brigade's officers because he tried to come up with something like "corporative ideology" of "Azov". But in contray to Viking-style culture of "Azov", he became to popularize pseudo-historian myths, based on Slavic mythology and fake "Book of Veles" (though some Ukrianian "folk-historians" consider it is true). But his attempts didn't find enough feedback from personnel

"Dyke  Pole" was last fourh battalion of brigade, established in July.   

Edited March 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

FPV of the siege of Russian blindage. UKR soldiers came to it from back and throw grenades inside, adding rifle fire. Likely blindage enough wide and deep, that even after several grenades one Russian soldier tried to crawl out from the "secret hole" from other side, but UKR trooper spotted the movement and shot Russian

Filmed by special purpose battalion "Dyke pole" ("Wild Fields") of special purpose bigade named afetr Ivan Bohun. Location probably between Soledar and Siversk.

The same vide via nitter if it's limited to watching: https://nitter.net/antiputler_news/status/1636799665931681808#m

Do we know where and when this was filmed?

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As with everything, there is a downside/limitation for any approach to any challenge.  Corrosive warfare has two issues

1.  having enough resources to be the one who corrodes instead of being the one corroded.  It's all well and great to have a 1:10 casualty ratio in your favor, but if you run out of ammo or men or space or will or anything necessary to sustain corrosive warfare BEFORE the enemy, well then you're "in the soup" as they say.

2.  it is SLOW and subtle, which means if patience and faith (by ones own people or allies) are important there could be non-combat factors that undermine corrosive progress.  You can be happily plodding along at 1:10 casualty ratio and still get the "what have you done for me lately?" attitude from important domestic and/or allied stakeholders.  This happens in corporations all the time where the signs of an eventual success are there, but shareholders sour on how long it will take and pull their investments and/or start to interfere with the successful recipe.

Time is on Ukraine's side more than Russia's, but it isn't indefinite.  I am increasingly concerned that Ukraine has to show some major success this year on a scale to either match or at least seem significant in comparison to last year.  Corrosive warfare isn't going to produce that result on its own.

The best scenario is that Russia weakens itself so much that it collapses without Ukraine having to do much of anything.  I don't see that happening. The next best case is that it weakens itself so much that Ukraine can kick the door in somewhere and Russia won't be able to respond in a meaningful way.  The third best case is that Ukraine kicks several doors open a little bit, thus giving the impression that collapse is possible in a few months' time.

Ukraine is going to have to attack Russia's entrenched forces this year regardless of the state of corrosion of Russian forces.  Therefore, Ukraine needs to figure out a way to blow open Russian defenses without expending its offensive strength in the process.  If it can do that I think deep scale exploitation is almost a given.  If it can't, then I'm not sure how much success Ukraine can hope to have this year.

Steve

Absolutely.  In fact it takes on a "key rate if systemic attrition" aspect.   Here ISR and precision become key.  However, if the UA runs out of ammo for this sort of fight, they likely will not have enough for a big offensive action either.  Slow pace by conventional standards is also a clear factor - we saw this at Kherson.  This is a case of western biases and lack of understanding on how these wars unfold driving advice to political will.

Someone just posted an article on some expert decrying the UA for not having enough "mission command".   Frankly looking at how this thing is going I am not even sure mission command is the right way to go, but in the west we have pushed it into an almost religious dogma.  This advice get to the political level and becomes pressure on the UA to "fight and win like us" when we have zero proof it would even work given the same constraints/restraints.  So the western political level needs and education on war, let's face it no one has had to fight one like this since the 50s - maybe parts of Vietnam.  The good news is that Russia hasn't either. 

Corrosive warfare will take longer and will need to be more deliberate.  It is in effect precision attrition.  It takes time to break a military operational system and in a lot of cases we really do not have all the metrics or indicators figured out.

But door #2 is to try and force generate enough mass to overcome the ISR/strike problems and then project and protect it in this environment.  We have watched the RA struggle with this for over a year and fail.  The UA will likely corrode and then use mass when the shaping phase is done.  Everyone in the west seems to be expecting Gulf War but I think it will be more like Kherson, or Kharkiv if we are lucky.

[The_Capt]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Business Insider has an article declaring the Russian Winter offensive is over and done with.  Yeah, shocker for us here, I know, but still worth reading.  At the end you might note that Kofman is taking up a slightly different position than 1:1 casualty ratios that came out of his group's travel to Bakhmut:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-new-ukraine-offensive-has-likely-already-fizzled-western-intel-2023-3

And while you're over at Business Insider, an interesting piece on the aerial version of "the tank is dead".  Basically, CAS in a contested environment is going to be costly and ineffective.  Of course we have to keep in mind that Ukraine doesn't have the SEAD capabilities of NATO, but the overall points raised here are still fundamentally valid (i.e. can't half *** it against good air defenses).

https://www.businessinsider.com/fighter-jets-unable-to-provide-close-air-support-over-ukraine-2023-3

Steve

"Happening in the fight now is that the attrition exchange rate is favorable to Ukraine but it's not nearly as favorable as it was before. The casualties on the Ukrainian side are rather significant and require a substantial amount of replacements on a regular basis,"

You know, no one was saying that Bakhmut was a cakewalk, but I honestly think the UA has been waging a corrosive campaign on the RA, but it was defensive at Bakhmut.  The UA lost things they can replace or know is coming on line, the RA lost things they cannot.