How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/14/world/europe/russian-attack-aid-worker-video.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230214&instance_id=85376&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=56536788&segment_id=125324&te=1&user_id=0664831fc7d6a10c183bbe706f36ff4a

Missile team working an LOS keyhole?

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

In areas where the underlying physics are well understood there are already some amazing things being done with genetic algorithms 

 

If you can ask the question the right way, an that is a medium large if, a sufficient amount of server time can solve it better than any human engineer s ever going too.

Expecting a LOT of this is being applied to EW as we speak.

If Chat GPT or similar can layer on top, things are going to get interesting.

Like this...

The more 'boring' subjects like logistics, manufacturing scalability & time to market (from R&D to operational), OR, etc,  are also on the list imo. Most don't even need ChatGPT level of algorithms but rather a systems rethink.

 

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

The more 'boring' subjects like logistics, manufacturing scalability & time to market (from R&D to operational), OR, etc,  are also on the list imo. Most don't even need ChatGPT level of algorithms but rather a systems rethink.

 

 

These SW tools can solve optimization problems w lots of design variables in lots of ways to provide some set of 'good' solutions.  But it's still just a plan.  Aint now SW gonna implement nuthin, someone still has to get truck A to supply point B in the real world.  And the solutions can be very sensitive to the parameters chosen -- chosen by humans.  When I teach some of this stuff to engineers I always tell them to test their sensitivity to their assumptions.  'bound the problem' so they at least know how much danger they are in if any given assumption is off by some appreciable amount.  

Never want to run these tools & say "there's THE answer" unless you are darn sure you've got everything well understood.

Edited February 14, 2023 by danfrodo

[Lethaface]

One thing which is striking in this war is that the average (?) Russian attack seems to be typewritten on a piece of paper with 'hardcoded' timings for artillery fire without comms between the units doing the groundwork and the fires. 

While Ukraine defense is live streaming image & coordinates to their assigned artillery from a drone while fighting a comms coordinated defense, all by people who where for a large part being civilians with jobs a year ago.

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

just wondering why this thread has anything to do w that.

Exactly the reason I don't answer. Like to know my opinion? Which is less than flattering PM is made for that purpose.

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am betting on the emergence of an AI based religion in my lifetime.  Things like Dark City states are also still out there.  The opiates of modern society tend to wear off at times like these, and people start to wake up and see through the matrix.  Most are crazy as a sh#t house rat, but every now and again you get a dangerous one.

We will see.  Oh, yes and you are absolutely correct, we are doing all this while hurtling towards a species bottlenecking cliff of climate change...I wonder if this is what the years before the Bronze Age collapse felt like?

My model of the current state of play is that we are in an abortive WWI space. Multi-ethnic, archaic imperial state Russia (think Austria Hungary) thought its "unlimited" alliance with China (Kaiser-ine Germany) would allow it to settle scores with Ukraine (Serbia) in a world where a long war/big war hadn't happened in decades and was so unthinkable and ill thought. But this time, the Kaiser balked and the Third Balkan war became a dragged out proxy conflict as everyone else tooled up for something bigger. That's where we are now. Waiting to see which way the balance tips.

 

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am betting on the emergence of an AI based religion in my lifetime.  Things like Dark City states are also still out there.  The opiates of modern society tend to wear off at times like these, and people start to wake up and see through the matrix.  Most are crazy as a sh#t house rat, but every now and again you get a dangerous one.

We will see.  Oh, yes and you are absolutely correct, we are doing all this while hurtling towards a species bottlenecking cliff of climate change...I wonder if this is what the years before the Bronze Age collapse felt like?

My model of the current state of play is that we are in an abortive WWI space. Multi-ethnic, archaic imperial state Russia (think Austria Hungary) thought its "unlimited" alliance with China (Kaiser-ine Germany) would allow it to settle scores with Ukraine (Serbia) in a world where a long war/big war hadn't happened in decades and was so unthinkable and ill thought. But this time, the Kaiser balked and the Third Balkan war became a dragged out proxy conflict as everyone else tooled up for something bigger. That's where we are now. Waiting to see which way the balance tips.

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My model of the current state of play is that we are in an abortive WWI space. Multi-ethnic, archaic imperial state Russia (think Austria Hungary) thought its "unlimited" alliance with China (Kaiser-ine Germany) would allow it to settle scores with Ukraine (Serbia) in a world where a long war/big war hadn't happened in decades and was so unthinkable and ill thought. But this time, the Kaiser balked and the Third Balkan war became a dragged out proxy conflict as everyone else tooled up for something bigger. That's where we are now. Waiting to see which way the balance tips.

 

Best analogy I have seen. Bleeping unpleasant knife edge to be on.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My model of the current state of play is that we are in an abortive WWI space. Multi-ethnic, archaic imperial state Russia (think Austria Hungary) thought its "unlimited" alliance with China (Kaiser-ine Germany) would allow it to settle scores with Ukraine (Serbia) in a world where a long war/big war hadn't happened in decades and was so unthinkable and ill thought. But this time, the Kaiser balked and the Third Balkan war became a dragged out proxy conflict as everyone else tooled up for something bigger. That's where we are now. Waiting to see which way the balance tips.

 

Ya that does sound about right.  So all we need right now is a nasty trigger and the whole thing goes up. So who are the Ottomans in this equation?

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya that does sound about right.  So all we need right now is a nasty trigger and the whole thing goes up. So who are the Ottomans in this equation?

Iran.

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Iran.

Hm, maybe if you squint hard enough.  I mean Iran had no direct involvement in the region, where the Ottomans owned Serbia for a good long stretch.  

I have held for some time that the era we are entering into looks a lot like pre-WW1.  Some stuff is in reverse like the re-emergence of a Westphalian model as push back, as opposed to its collapse. But there are a lot of similarities as the major players all jockey.  The big question to my mind is, “just how much has the US actually contracted?”  I think this war is a big test of that.  Putin bet on “enough”.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I am betting on the emergence of an AI based religion in my lifetime.

AI will be the biggest game changer for sure. What people don't seem to realize yet (or they do and don't want to accept it) is that AI is not just going to the next industrial revolution in which some jobs will vanish but other new ones will take over. This time there will just be less jobs. And not just those for the less well educated. People deceive themselves by seeing only the flaws that ChatGPT & Co still have. But it is already aparent that many of the BS jobs will go and even software developers up to a certain level aren't safe. ChatGPT and others are already often on the level of junior developers. Obviously less AI developers will be needed than all the jobs that are going to be replaced by AI. And even if that were different: We usually don't like to talk about it but few and fewer people will be intelligent enough to do it.

This comes on top of the crisis the system democracy + capitalism is facing already. This system is based on the promise that although capitalism will always be unfair but perpetual growth will (somehow) still improve everyone's life. Over the last two or so decades we have seen that this promise holds less and less and this is why people look (again) to the Strong Leader like Putin or Xi (or Trump). Climate change will obviously make all of this much worse.

Well, interesting times...

Edited February 15, 2023 by Butschi

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya that does sound about right.  So all we need right now is a nasty trigger and the whole thing goes up. So who are the Ottomans in this equation?

As no analogy survives contact with a discussion, the major difference is A-H's attack on Serbia was the trigger and there were interested parties already primed and ready for war.  In this case the other interested parties have no interest in fighting a war, so they are desperately trying to stay out of it instead of charging into the fight.  On top of that, Russia is likely going to get defeated in Ukraine, which is the equivalent of A-H invading Serbia and getting stuck there without any lifeline being thrown to it.  All the while Russia's enemies (the Triple Entante analog) sit around building up their military capacity while Russia's ebbs away. 

Iran, which is in this picture somewhere, is not really capable of doing much more than being a spoiler on the periphery.  Currently they are only a minor distraction which can be largely ignored.

Steve

[kevinkin]

F-35s over Poland. 

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-731535

[Lethaface]

Unless China's balloons begin barrel bombing Boston I don't see WW3 going hot happening for now. 

[Beleg85]

Interesting- past events, but now seem to be confirmed by moskals themselves:

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/confirmed_by_russia_ukrainian_air_defense_forces_struck_the_il_22_aircraft-5735.html

[danfrodo]

41 minutes ago, Butschi said:

This comes on top of the crisis the system democracy + capitalism is facing already. This system is based on the promise that although capitalism will always be unfair but perpetual growth will (somehow) still improve everyone's life.

The term we always see for this is "a rising tide lifts all boats".  But only for those w boats.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Hm, maybe if you squint hard enough.  I mean Iran had no direct involvement in the region, where the Ottomans owned Serbia for a good long stretch.  

I have held for some time that the era we are entering into looks a lot like pre-WW1.  Some stuff is in reverse like the re-emergence of a Westphalian model as push back, as opposed to its collapse. But there are a lot of similarities as the major players all jockey.  The big question to my mind is, “just how much has the US actually contracted?”  I think this war is a big test of that.  Putin bet on “enough”.

I think what happened is that a lot of people...often in the US too...talked themselves into overestimating US decline and the Trump administration really set the hook on that idea. The Afghan withdrawal also with its chaotic endgame taught exactly the opposite lesson that it should have. Meanwhile, the fundaments of US power remained quite resilient and perhaps most pertinently, there's no remotely as attractive hegemon anywhere on the horizon. Sometimes just being preferable is powerful. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by billbindc

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Ya that does sound about right.  So all we need right now is a nasty trigger and the whole thing goes up. So who are the Ottomans in this equation?

 

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Iran.

The trigger is Taiwan. China, the Imperial Germany here, is unhappy with the settlement of the last round. For Germany it was most of the World outside the Americas being wrapped up as British and French colonies before Germany got in the game. The analogy with the Chinese waking up from a ~40 year self inflicted nightmare after WW2 and being unhappy with the way the pie was cut is actually pretty good. 

I know Taiwan got detached in 1948 not 1945, and, and..., but the basic theory works. Not least because once the REAL ballon went up, nobody thought about Serbia again for 50 years, maybe it was 75 years actually. This is why the war staying in Ukraine is actually better for Ukraine, as backwards as that seems.

 

Edit: The Russian military performance in Ukraine has certainly shown a strong resemblance to Austro-Hungarian Empires in WW1, they are at least one war behind the times, and it shows.

Edited February 15, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think what happened is that a lot of people...often in the US too...talked themselves into overestimating US decline and the Trump administration really set the hook on that idea. The Afghan withdrawal also with its chaotic endgame taught exactly the opposite lesson that it should have. Meanwhile, the fundaments of US power remained quite resilient and perhaps most pertinently, there's no remotely as attractive hegemon anywhere on the horizon. Sometimes just being preferable is powerful. 

Right?!  Afghanistan was actually pretty smart.  There was not way to fix that place without breaking it first.  It’s national anthem should be “Don’t try and fix me, I like me broken.”  The US got out before it joined the graveyard of empires club.

As to US power, I think there is a combination of Shaudenfreude/wishful thinking by some, and fear by others.  The metrics of national power do not add up to a major decline.  Economically by far largest economy (debate rages on how brittle and the impending “end-of-capitalism”), which pretty much fund all the others.  Largest and most modern military in the history of the species.  Information power is immense.  Cultural power is also incredibly potent.  Diplomatic, likely the lightest touch of any empire in history - I have seen the US take bad deals just to keep people onside.

The only thing that really concerns are the deep political divisions.  We should sidestep those here as they could derail this thread really fast but on the outside we do despair at the apparent death of compromise.  I think the war in Ukraine has actually gone a long way to heal some of those deep rifts, or at least I hope so.  The US seems to operate best when it has competition - you guys do love a good hard game.  30 years at the top unchallenged may have been unhealthy for you.  And of course both Russian and China appear dim enough to overtly provoke, which is the exact opposite strategy I would employ to erode the US.

[paxromana]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And of course both Russian and China appear dim enough to overtly provoke, which is the exact opposite strategy I would employ to erode the US.

Well, the Chinese and Russian (would be) Emperors seem to be that dim ... 

But that seems to be an inherent flaw in autocracies ... no-one dares ground them in a reality they have deluded themselves into believing doesn't exist.

Edited February 15, 2023 by paxromana

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

the impending “end-of-capitalism”

Who thinks this?  Capitalism works, overall.  It just needs some boundaries and people need some safety net.  We can (and should) argue about where the right balance is, but what do people think will replace capitalism?  State run economies are baaaaaad at running..... a state economy .   The free market, which sometimes actually exists, works -- meaning it only exists when there's the much req'd proper competition, lest things devolve rather quickly into trusts & monopolies. 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by danfrodo

[sross112]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

No matter what, though, Russia will not have the near term (5-10 years minimum) ability to threaten its neighbors the way it has under Putin.  It can still murder, hack, misinform, corrupt, etc. but it won't be able to swallow up territory like it has since 1990.  Even after it reconstitutes its military I doubt it would be able to do much externally because of the quality gap.

Steve

If this war continues for another year with even similar amounts of equipment losses for the RA and the political shift of their neighbors, do we think they will ever be able to threaten them again?

Sweden and Finland in NATO, some sort of NATO end for Ukraine. Russia has China and Japan to the East and Europe to the west. With their military stocks pretty much destroyed and what is left is proving to be very inferior, so useless in the future. They need to build to a level that they can contest NATO or China. Can they do that industrially or economically? Ever? That is if they aren't walled off as a Mordor as well. 

Their power prior to the invasion was based on everyone thinking their tech was good and their numbers were game changers. These things have been proven wrong so they will need to build an entirely new military pretty much from scratch at a technological level to be on par with the other big boys. Is this even possible? 

I don't know. I'm not as well versed in these things as some on here, but my gut tells me no. So that might be the biggest catalyst of change for a post war Russia. If they pragmatically look at it and decide that there is just no way they can compete as a big boy in the future and decide they have to change. Not sure if their egos can handle that one, but it actually might be the best hope for a shift in their thinking and political stance.

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The only thing that really concerns are the deep political divisions.  We should sidestep those here as they could derail this thread really fast but on the outside we do despair at the apparent death of compromise.  I think the war in Ukraine has actually gone a long way to heal some of those deep rifts, or at least I hope so.  The US seems to operate best when it has competition - you guys do love a good hard game.  30 years at the top unchallenged may have been unhealthy for you.  And of course both Russian and China appear dim enough to overtly provoke, which is the exact opposite strategy I would employ to erode the US

Really, really well stated.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, sross112 said:

If this war continues for another year with even similar amounts of equipment losses for the RA and the political shift of their neighbors, do we think they will ever be able to threaten them again?

Sweden and Finland in NATO, some sort of NATO end for Ukraine. Russia has China and Japan to the East and Europe to the west. With their military stocks pretty much destroyed and what is left is proving to be very inferior, so useless in the future. They need to build to a level that they can contest NATO or China. Can they do that industrially or economically? Ever? That is if they aren't walled off as a Mordor as well. 

Their power prior to the invasion was based on everyone thinking their tech was good and their numbers were game changers. These things have been proven wrong so they will need to build an entirely new military pretty much from scratch at a technological level to be on par with the other big boys. Is this even possible? 

I don't know. I'm not as well versed in these things as some on here, but my gut tells me no. So that might be the biggest catalyst of change for a post war Russia. If they pragmatically look at it and decide that there is just no way they can compete as a big boy in the future and decide they have to change. Not sure if their egos can handle that one, but it actually might be the best hope for a shift in their thinking and political stance.

For every case that can be made that end of Putler would not change Russia, there's a case to be made that it can.  We just don't know.  Will Russia continue to be a belligerent mess, constantly picking fights w the world?  Will the new power brokers be too busy trying to hold the mess together and against internal competitors?  Will Russian people (post-Putler) turn on the war once they start to understand the cost of this mess?  Russia will be flippin' broke, and won't have a lot of folks lending a hand.  India and China will like fleecing RU out of its fossil fuels, and China wants RU weak weak weak now that this is an option.  Imagine if siberia splits off and China is its protector/benefactor, in exchange for cheap fossil fuels.  So many ways this can go.