How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Regarding the training. Hundreds pages ago, someone (maybe it was Grigb?) mentioned that it will be very hard to get the trained radiomen and ATGM operators into the frontline. That was discussed before Sept mobilization.

I read Wagner ATGM crews trained hard and could waste 10-15 newest Kornet missiles for a day only for training purpose! 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

10-15....per team? Or unit? 

They should be crack MFs by the end of a few days but where is the impact on the field? 

Also,  that's a lot of fires with little time for BDA,  training adjustment... 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Kinophile

[Zeleban]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's something different for you guys to contemplate...

I am about to have a private in person meeting with a senior US policy maker on a matter unrelated to Ukraine. Unfortunately, the circumstances of our meeting do not allow for me to have a detailed conversation about this war, however I was invited to submit something in writing with a conversation follow up with policy staffers. 

A few of us have been working together offline (some not participating here) on recommendations from our perspective outside of the "Beltway".  I have no expectations about what might come from this other than us offering our 2 cents worth of advice that may be somewhat different than what is commonly circulating.  I do not expect to be flown on a private jet to DC to testify

What follows are the "headlines" from the document, not the content.  A cover letter explains where all this good stuff came from, so you can now consider yourselves policy advisors as well as gamers   Since the origins of this came straight from our conversations here your suggestions are already incorporated, but I'm curious to hear any additional thoughts before this gets handed over.

Рекомендации для законодательных действий США
1. Четко определить цели и желаемые результаты – ГЛАВНЫЙ ПРИОРИТЕТ
2. Сформировать Голубую ленту для изучения извлеченных уроков и рекомендовать изменения на основе этого
3. Официально объявить Россию государством-спонсором терроризма
4. Установить законодательную базу рамки нового плана Маршалла для Украины
5. Работать с ЕС и Украиной над дорожной картой реформ, которые принесут ей пользу
 
Рекомендации для членства в ЕС по военной помощи Украине
1. Обмен разведывательными данными – ВЫСШИЙ ПРИОРИТЕТ
2. Артиллерия, артиллерия и еще раз артиллерия
3. Расширить Возможности Deep Strike
4. Приобретайте и доставляйте запасные части советских времен до тех пор, пока запасы не будут исчерпаны.
5. Помочь Украине уничтожить Черноморский флот России
6. Предоставить тяжелые ББМ
7. Увеличить логистические возможности
8. Увеличить объем обучения, чтобы включить все школы США
9. Расширить долгосрочную профессионализацию
10. Планировать потребности будущих Вооруженных сил Украины
 
Рекомендации для США внешняя и национальная политика безопасности
1. Обеспечить победу Украины в мире – ГЛАВНЫЙ ПРИОРИТЕТ
2. Украина должна победить
3. Россия должна проиграть, но не превратиться в пепел
4. Украине нужна справедливость, а не месть
5. Предоставить России дорожную карту для улучшения отношений
6 Подготовьтесь к продолжению Россией гибридной войны
7. Будьте готовы воспользоваться слабостью России в краткосрочной перспективе.
8. Направить значительные ресурсы на укрепление «Западного порядка»
. 9. Провести полный обзор военной готовности США.

 

 

I think an important point would be the direction of the frozen Russian assets for the restoration of Ukraine. It is very important that Ukraine be restored with the money of the aggressor and not Europe. This would be correct from the point of view of further maintenance of order. Any potential aggressor must be aware that aggression will cost him dearly.

[Zeleban]

19 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

BTW, where are the mobile ATGM platforms like Khrizantema-S and Shturm-S?

These are rather "demonstration" types of equipment such as Armata or Terminator. Their number in the troops is scanty and is not able to affect the overall course of the war.(I mean Chrysanthemum)

Edited January 16, 2023 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

Very interesting post from Maschovets. Previously, he repeatedly in his posts indicated the actions of some Russian units called "Storm"(in the sense of a natural phenomenon and not a assault actions). When translating, I usually skipped this name, because I did not understand what kind of unit it was.

Now he finally clarified what kind of unit this is.

The first units of this kind appeared among the Russians during the battles for Izyum and Liman. But they received real distribution and wide application later, in the area of Svatovo and Kremennaya. Storm Detachment (this is essentially a kind of Russian mini-BTGr, in the form of a reinforced motorized rifle company, as they say in the army, sharpened specifically for assault, attacking actions)

Etymology of its appearance:

-      a certain account of the experience of the war (or rather, such a desire ...)

-      an attempt to get rid of the shortcomings of bulky and ineffective BTGrs and increase the level of effectiveness of their attacking units.

-      be presented by the Russian military command as a kind of "know-how", but in fact it bears all the same negative imprints of the "Soviet-Russian military school" ... specify which ones.

But, one thing, this kind of reflection, the name, as an example - the Russians again created some kind of, this time a mini-monster of a tactical level and again, as usual in their style - “headless” (4 people to establish full control and coordination actions by a reinforced assault company, consisting of at least 10 units, are clearly not just few, but critically few ... but who cares for them).

It is created as a separate unit or as the fourth battalion in a brigade (regiment).

The typical staffing of the detachment is 161 servicemen.

 Оrganizationally it includes:

- management - four people (troop commander, deputy troop commander, senior officer for guidance and target designation and spotter);
- motorized rifle company - 93 people (three motorized rifle platoons in total, up to 10-11 BMP-1\2, sometimes BTR-70\80, or even MTLB);

- mortar platoon, or battery - 17 military units (three 120-mm ‘Sani’ mortars and three Ural-4320 trucks, sometimes supplemented by a fire platoon of 82-mm ‘Podnos’ mortars);

- tank platoon - nine \ twelve military personnel (three or four T-72B3M tanks);

- howitzer self-propelled artillery platoon - 10 people (Ural-4320 truck and two 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled guns, recently, due to a significant shortage of 122-mm artillery shells, 152-mm Msta-B sometimes began to be fixed "" as part of fire artillery platoons of units of the "Storm" type, in these cases "Ural-4320" 3-4 units);

- grenade launcher platoon - six servicemen ("Ural-4320" and two AGS-17);

- ATGM department - three servicemen (ATGM "Metis");
- reconnaissance squad - seven people (Ural truck, sometimes 1-2 AFVs of the "Tiger" type);

- engineering and sapper department - five military personnel (truck "Ural", sometimes there is an IMR);

- flamethrower squad - four servicemen (eight RPO-A "Shmel" + 1 MTLB, or armored personnel carrier);

- medical squad - three military personnel (usually without evacuation transport, but sometimes it happens that armored personnel carriers or infantry fighting vehicles are added specifically for the evacuation of the wounded).

In addition, in units, as a rule, 2-3 vehicles of the UAZ-469 type, or UAZ "Patriot" ... can also be used up to 3-4 civilian jeeps (used mainly in command or intelligence departments) ... and 2-3 units of trucks separately for logistics (including tankers).

Edited January 16, 2023 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

Due to some peculiarity of the situation and trends in its development in dynamics, a Storm-type unit can be strengthened with additional forces and means. For example, electronic warfare equipment, UAV crews, snipers, engineer forces or additional motorized rifle or tank units.

Usually, the command of the Russian troops selects personnel for the Storm type unit according to certain criteria:

- motivation for one reason or another, moral and psychological state

- еxperience in combat

- the level of individual training and professionalism ... first of all, in fire, tactical-special, medical-tactical training

It should be emphasized that units of the "Storm" type very rarely operate with their full strength ... The vast majority - in separate platoons, and not even uncommon - 1-2 squads.

Moreover, usually the main method of attack and assault is the coordinated and complementary advancement of individual assault groups (up to 8-10 people in each, sometimes 10-15-20) with massive fire support from mortars and artillery (in fact, the commander of the Storm can independently, without the permission of the senior commander, use up to 3 heavy 120-mm mortars + 3 82-mm mortars + 2 self-propelled guns for this in a specific area / direction of attack of his unit (122 mm), or up to 3 152 mm howitzers or 122 mm D-30 howitzer guns).

As for a company operating mainly in platoons, and even in separate squads, this is quite powerful

Actually, armored vehicles are used quite rarely by these “stormers” (mostly tanks, as additional fire support, and then, mainly outside the zone of effective fire of anti-tank weapons of Ukrainian units). AFV is usually a means of evacuation, delivery of assault groups to the deployment line, transport for the transport of ammunition during the battle, etc.

A gradual transition to the active use of such units was introduced in the Wagner PMC. It was they, among the Russians, who were the first to use the tactics of small infantry groups in attacking and assault actions ... elevated to special assault units (detachments) reinforced with artillery, tanks, mortars.

After this practice "began to bring results", it was finalized in the Russian army and gradually began to be introduced in other areas ...

[Zeleban]

But everything has its price...

The use of this kind of "sharpened for assault / attack" units, operating with numerous small-sized assault groups, requires very high-quality continuous tactical level control, as well as a high level of interaction between them directly on the battlefield.

And if the Wagnerites ... this mechanics has been worked out almost to the point of automaticity, then the regular Russian troops have ... let's say, some problems have arisen with this ...

The fact is that, unlike the Wagnerites, Russia simply lacks tactical command personnel capable of such "feats" directly on the battlefield. Therefore, it is not at all uncommon when the actions of assault groups and squads of these "storms" are personally led on the battlefield by majors and lieutenant colonels, and not by sergeants and lieutenants, as it should be ...

Moreover, the anachronistic level of tactical-level CONTROLS of the Russian troops in the vast majority of cases simply does not allow the commander of this "storm" to efficiently control his subordinates directly during the attack / assault.

It's good when you discussed all the possible course of events and scenarios in advance ... and the attacking / assaulting personnel at least approximately imagine their actions in one or another TYPICAL case ...

But it is not at all uncommon when, as a result of the opposition of the Ukrainian troops, during an attack / assault, situations arise when the attacking "stormers" find themselves in a completely unforeseen situation, when you need to react somehow quickly and adequately ... And then comes what in the army language it is called ... loss of control ... Everyone starts to make a gag ... He ran there, the other climbed in a completely different direction, the artillery hit the wrong target on which it was necessary ... and so on. ..

As a result, the coordination of the actions of the fighters of these assault groups, as well as between themselves, drops sharply (and of course, this is immediately reflected in the level of effectiveness of their actions) ... It's good if the commander who controls these groups can in such a situation "report their opinion to everyone", but as practice shows ... more often the opposite happens ...

Well, from experience ... you can still list the flaws and features of these units. But, in general, it is worth making one important conclusion ...

The appearance and distribution of assault units of the "Storm" type in the enemy troops is not something accidental, or "ordered from above." This is a completely conscious and put into practice desire to obtain a more effective and efficient tactical tool for conducting the type of hostilities that the Russian military command today considers acceptable for itself ... in the form of a slow, costly and gradual (one might say, creeping) offensive. ..

[Kinophile]

21 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

I don't see a full reconstruction effort mentioned, unless it is already rolled into #1 'Winning the Peace'. Something along the lines of a Marshall plan that helps Ukrainians rebuild their own country and infrastructure while restoring their economic vitality and returning their citizen soldiers back to jobs.

Section A,  pt 4,no?

[OldSarge]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Section A,  pt 4,no?

In the immortal words of that great philosopher H.J. Simpson: 'D'oh!'.

Edited January 16, 2023 by OldSarge

[Harmon Rabb]

Germany calls for special tribunal against Russia over Ukraine war (Reuters)

[FancyCat]

Not surprising but very sad and bad for Ukraine.

 

[A Canadian Cat]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I have the feeling that Putin might just be waiting for a declaration of Western tanks to Ukraine before announcing more mobilisation to "counter the Western aggression".

I don't think he needs to wait. He's already claimed NATO militaries are operating in Ukraine. He just needs to re tread that old propaganda bit.

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

10-15....per team? Or unit?

I don't know, more likely for group of enlisted. But minimal term of training in PMC camp is three weeks, of course not all days they have practice shooting...

[Zeleban]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I have the feeling that Putin might just be waiting for a declaration of Western tanks to Ukraine before announcing more mobilisation to "counter the Western aggression".

On the other hand, Germany might be waiting for him to annnounce mobilisation before announcing the tanks in response.

I think that in December the allies became aware that Putin was preparing a second wave of mobilization and plans to increase the size of his army. Deliveries of new types of weapons were the answer to this

[Hapless]

Now this is great:

[Kinophile]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's something different for you guys to contemplate...

I am about to have a private in person meeting with a senior US policy maker on a matter unrelated to Ukraine. Unfortunately, the circumstances of our meeting do not allow for me to have a detailed conversation about this war, however I was invited to submit something in writing with a conversation follow up with policy staffers. 

A few of us have been working together offline (some not participating here) on recommendations from our perspective outside of the "Beltway".  I have no expectations about what might come from this other than us offering our 2 cents worth of advice that may be somewhat different than what is commonly circulating.  I do not expect to be flown on a private jet to DC to testify

What follows are the "headlines" from the document, not the content.  A cover letter explains where all this good stuff came from, so you can now consider yourselves policy advisors as well as gamers   Since the origins of this came straight from our conversations here your suggestions are already incorporated, but I'm curious to hear any additional thoughts before this gets handed over.

Recommendations for United States legislative action
1.     Clearly define Objectives and Desired Outcomes – TOP PRIORITY
2.     Form a Blue-Ribbon Commission to examine lessons learned and recommend changes based on that
3.     Officially designate Russia a State Sponsor Of Terrorism
4.     Establish the legislative framework for a new Marshall Plan for Ukraine
5.     Work with the EU and Ukraine on reform roadmap that will gain it EU Membership
 
Recommendations For Military Aid To Ukraine
1.     Intelligence sharing - TOP PRIORITY
2.     Artillery, artillery, and more artillery
3.     Expand Deep Strike capabilities
4.     Procure and deliver Soviet era replacements until stocks are exhausted
5.     Help Ukraine destroy Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
6.     Provide heavy AFVs
7.     Increase logistics capabilities
8.     Increase scope of training to include all US schools
9.     Expand long term professionalization
10.   Plan for needs of the future Ukraine Armed Forces
 
Recommendations for US foreign and national security policies
1.     Ensure Ukraine Wins the peace – TOP PRIORITY
2.     Ukraine must win
3.     Russia must lose, but not converted into ashes
4.     Ukraine needs justice, not vengeance
5.     Provide Russia with a roadmap to better relations
6.     Prepare for Russia continuing hybrid warfare
7.     Be ready to take advantage of Russia’s short term weakness
8.    Devote significant resources to reinforcing the “Western Order”
9.    Undertake a full review of US military preparedness

 

 

Deepen UKRAINE-NATO integration,  training and Coordination.

 

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Now this is great:

It's worth to explain for other. UKR drone recons of K-2 unit of 54th mech.brigade have spotted dead Russian soldier with radio. They picked up radio with special equipment, attached to drone and could listen during nine days all radio traffic of Russian unit. Only since nine days Russians have suspected that something going wrong and changed settings of own radionetwork. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[A Canadian Cat]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Give them scrupulously fair trials.  If they are found guilty, hand down sentences consistent with what they were convinced of.

Straight forward and simple. Now everyone, was that so hard

[A Canadian Cat]

On 1/14/2023 at 6:41 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Gee, I wonder if all those unmarked Swiss bank accounts have any Russian money in them?

No doubt. The Swiss Bankers will be watching the list of people who have been defenestrated in Moscow and the list of Generals that this group has been tracking to cross check with their list so they know which money they can keep.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Now this is great:

Oh man!  I loved playing this game when I was a kid, though admittedly not in nearly as cool circumstances

Steve

[Haiduk]

The death of Russian serviceman from interesting unit - private of signal unit of 72nd coastal missile battalion of Pacific Fleet (Bal and Bastion missile complexes). He was killed on 27th Dec. Either he became usual rifleman to fill "shat" or his unit was deployed in Cimea and cought something...

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's worth to explain for other. UKR drone recons of K-2 unit of 54th mech.brigade have spotted dead Russian soldier with radio. They picked up radio with special equipment, attached to drone and could listen during nine days all radio traffic of Russian unit. Only since nine days Russians have suspected that something going wrong and changed settings of own radionetwork. 

They didn't change their channel for 9 days and only then changed it because they suspected they were being listened to?  Is it any wonder Russia is losing this war so badly?

Steve

[Haiduk]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

They didn't change their channel for 9 days and only then changed it because they suspected they were being listened to?  Is it any wonder Russia is losing this war so badly?

This is often thing, for both sides, alas. During last assault of Donetsk airport in 2015 enemy have found killed UKR soldier with working radio and could listen our talks about one day, but this day cost too high... 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

There was a video of a UA POW in Russian hands about to be blinded with a knife, they released the afterwards picture to I guess document it.

I know there are some here who like to cry large tears for conscripts killed by drones because the conscripts only kill because they have to (instead of surrendering), they are the ones who enable this scum to commit these things

And they conscripts might very well be the scum that do things like this.  Just because someone is rounded up off the street and sent to the front without training doesn't mean the person is good.  Scum are conscripted just like good people.  In fact, there was quite a bit of evidence that scum were targeted because they were easier to grab.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Haiduk said:

This is often thing, for both sides, alas. During last assault of Donetsk airport in 2015 enemy have found killed UKR soldier with working radio and could listen our talks about one day, but this day cost too high... 

For sure lazy communications security is not just a Russian thing, but I would hope that Ukrainians have improved more than Russians since 2015.

Steve