dan/california Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, JonS said: Presumably the always-on global earthquake monitoring network would have caught this. Bombs are orders of magnitude less powerful than earthquakes, but the sensors are pretty sensitive. It wouldn't reveal which particular plane spontaneously deconstructed first, second, etc, but would reveal where 'the twins' were in the overall sequence, how many total impacts there were, and something about secondaries. Filtering out background noise might require some sophisticated filters. Actually, that same network could perhaps be coupled with the forest fire sat imagery to get a sense of which sectors are getting jiggy with it, and for how long. It almost certainly should work in theory, I found an interesting paper about telling the difference between quarry explosions and small earth quakes. I am assuming a quarry explosion is on a the same order as a bleep ton of Russian bombs, although quarry explosions might be coupled better since they are intentionally buried several tens of feet. The issue is that you have to have data from within a few hundred miles, and none of the relevant countries are accessible based on ten minutes of googling. Turkey has a list/map of its monitoring stations, but no online data. You can get all the data you could ever look at though from the west coast of the U.S., but anything less than a nuke isn't going to show above background from the far side of the world. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00024-022-02953-w https://earthquake.usgs.gov/monitoring/seismograms Edit: Conveniently joint base Lewis McCord is having a live fire exercise tonight. I will see if shows on the nearest publicly available reading. It will give decent indicator of whether it is worth digging for less accessible data. Edited August 16, 2022 by dan/california 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) Looking at some local drums, they appear to be picking up a diurnal rhythm, and is probably(?) largely composed of vehicle traffic. That alone indicates a high degree of sensitivity, although the proximity between source and sensor is likely pretty high. Geonet.org.nz/earthquake/drums Edited August 16, 2022 by JonS 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 hour ago, dan/california said: Conveniently joint base Lewis McCord is having a live fire exercise tonight. Is that at JBLM, or over the hill at Yakuma? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, JonS said: Is that at JBLM, or over the hill at Yakuma? Well we live in a suburb of Tacoma, and they sent out the notice that they intended to make noise this evening. I have been half listening and haven't heard anything yet, but the kids and the dog are both awake so it isn't exactly quiet. I think I wiil be able to pull up tonight and last night side by side in the morning. There is one of the higher grade sensors not far outside the base. So it really might show. I am am wondering how many sensors there are in Ukraine to find though. I say that because in a country with no shortage of other problems I have never once read the headline "earthquake". Whereas around Seattle Mt Rainier sort of makes people pay attention. I am also having a crazed thought that with enough development money you could do totally passive counter-battery this way. But surely someone has already tried? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 On a family friendly site this is referred to as a new pants moment. Six months of the hardest possible use may have done for Ukraines 2S7 fleet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) Uh….Russians better hope it was a OSHA violation that caused this. Other posters are stating explosion in Dzhankoi, google shows a helicopter base there, it’s near Azovske, so who knows if separate or confusion about what got hit. Its one thing for one special ops operation to be carried off successfully, but two now? I wonder how the Crimeans feel now. I wonder how much the difference between Crimea and the puppet republics are controlled and run, allows Ukraine to manage these attacks with deep or inserted personnel? Since Crimea is considered part of Russia, are there checks on the passage of people thru it’s borders? Edited August 16, 2022 by FancyCat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Morpheus_ Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 55 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Uh….Russians better hope it was a OSHA violation that caused this. Other posters are stating explosion in Dzhankoi, google shows a helicopter base there, it’s near Azovske, so who knows if separate or confusion about what got hit. Its one thing for one special ops operation to be carried off successfully, but two now? I wonder how the Crimeans feel now. I wonder how much the difference between Crimea and the puppet republics are controlled and run, allows Ukraine to manage these attacks with deep or inserted personnel? Since Crimea is considered part of Russia, are there checks on the passage of people thru it’s borders? Just WOW! Guy is saying, that even Bus is shaking (~6km distance) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, dan/california said: Well we live in a suburb of Tacoma Fun! I spent 3 months at JBLM around Easter in 2019. I became a regular here ... (Bluesteele Cafe - yes, I know the story ) ... and a firm fan of 7 Seas Bewing. It's a lovely part of the world - I throughly enjoyed the time I spent doing a lap of the Olympic Peninsular, and a lap of Mt Ranier. Quote they sent out the notice that they intended to make noise this evening IIRC, there isn't an artillery range at JBLM? I think they only do small arms there. The bigger stuff has to go over the hill Quote I am am wondering how many sensors there are in Ukraine to find though Probably none, or at best not many. But both Turkey and Greece are pretty close, and they have oodles of quakes. AIUI, the earthquake network is used for remote sensing of nuke tests and other big bangs, and with triangulation from several sensors the location can be achieved pretty quickly (although I dont know what the resolution is on those locations). The network routinely senses volcanoes and the echoes of earthquakes from the other side of the world (apparently the energy waves take the direct path through the centre? Or sumfink?), so in principle remote sensing from far away is practical, but of course it would depend on the size of the bang. Quote I am also having a crazed thought that with enough development money you could do totally passive counter-battery this way. Exactly! Edited August 16, 2022 by JonS 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 59 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said: Just WOW! Guy is saying, that even Bus is shaking (~6km distance) Beautiful! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Anyone want to count the number of bangs on that video, to estimate the size of the dump 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Beautiful! Blyatiful! As mentioned above, with second hit at 200km in a few days, SOF action seems less and less likely. So as it is another strike at circa 200km range - meaning UA has means to reliably hit high value targets at this huge range. It raises the question, is it the maximum range of their new weapon, or not? I bet RU army is freaking out about that as we speak. It will be interesting to see if they evacuate the rest of fleet from Sevastopol. As for the weapon used, perhaps the ER-GMLRS has a bit longer range than we thought? Assuming no hits at longer ranges occur in next days, I'd go with this explanation. New rockets would probably be more stealthy than old ones too, adding to RU problems with interception. One more thought about what is going on with UA deep strike - it seems to me that Ukraine now has a really big potential to escalate if it chooses to (and if US will let them). I wonder what would happen if such an explosion took place in Rostov or Kursk? Sure, RU would retaliate as hard as they can, but I imagine it would have a serious impact on the perception of the conflict in broader population? I don't feel like really taking a guess here, but maybe Grigb or Steve or Beleg would care to share your thoughts about such a contingency? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Huba said: Blyatiful! As mentioned above, with second hit at 200km in a few days, SOF action seems less and less likely. Yes! And a pretty juicy target. From google that warehouse (s) is aprox 400metres long and apparently was full with stuff. Azovs'ka station, 300km south-east from Mykolaiv... Edited August 16, 2022 by DesertFox 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) Here's a nice thread accumulating available bits of info. Apparently nearby transformer stations was also hit ( line from Dzhankoi to Melitopol is electrified): Edit: There's 300km by truck from Feodosia to Kherson city and almost the same to Melitopol. RU logistics took a very severe hit there. This is much more significant than the previous airbase strike: Edited August 16, 2022 by Huba 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 1. Haven't checked in on OBrien in a bit, here's his latest thoughts on the war. Shouldn't shock anyone on this thread: like the strategists on here, he isn't overly worried about Ukraine's 'inability' to concentrate heavy forces. Overall this way of fighting is generally why I'm positive about Ukr prospects. The two sides are intellectually fighting very differently. The Russians are plodding, battle-centric, have difficulties adjusting and cant operate their complex systems well (see air and sea power) 2. Interesting thread here, from March, though covers a far wider scope than this war.... There were no decisive battles in WW2.... Wow, them's fighting words for CM grogs lol. Edited August 16, 2022 by LongLeftFlank 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 The new weapon... 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, dan/california said: I am also having a crazed thought that with enough development money you could do totally passive counter-battery this way. But surely someone has already tried? Fascinating idea. I guess the sensors could be sensitive enough to pick up artillery fire. The difficult part should be the triangulation, though. I mean, EM signals propagate more or less uniformly in all directions... Same even goes for sound under water, at least horizontally, I think. But seismic signals? I would assume you nees a super precise model of the geology in your area of interest to be able to pinpoint the source exact enough for counter battery, right? After all no one cares if the epicenter of an earthquake is exact within less than a few kilometers... Edited August 16, 2022 by Butschi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Already done, just needs a bit of digitization: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 best part is that russians boasted they moved a division of S400 to Zhankoi to protect Crimea. Who bought S400 again? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) Video taken from a train passing Zhankoi. Ammo and Grad launchers are massed maybe 10 meters from the tracks. Unbelievable: Only relevant comment for that: Edited August 16, 2022 by Huba 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 I'm on a spamming spree today, sorry Reportedly another hit, at military airfield near Symferopol. Quick look at Google Maps shows about 2 dozen aircraft parked there Su-24, 25 and 27. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Of course death is always tragedy...but in case of Wagnerite we can make an exception, right? It seems that after all strike on their base was more than a mere nuisance as they claimed. And one propagandists less. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Karma... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Huba said: I'm on a spamming spree today, sorry Reportedly another hit, at military airfield near Symferopol. Quick look at Google Maps shows about 2 dozen aircraft parked there Su-24, 25 and 27. Starting to look like a campaign at this point. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 anti-smoking campaign 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlsatianFelix Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 How Hot is Crimea Gonna Get? 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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