FancyCat

the vid better be a psyop, otherwise, what the hell is RuAF gonna do with Prig? At this rate, hes gonna beat up a General.

I wonder if the appearance of the Polish volunteers isn’t another step towards escalation in invading Russia?

Hopefully Ukraine will be lenient and ensure that civilians are able to return to the fold recognizing the coercion placed on those in the occupied regions. While the article does lean towards that point that the government is somewhat understanding it, there is still confusion.

This was in https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/10/us/politics/joe-biden-ukraine.html 2019, but I think it underscores his wishes to pursue what’s best for Ukraine, termed hawkish, vs others who advocated less hawkish measures towards Russia. Consider Wagner getting whittled down, time for Kadyrov soldiers to get the same treatment.

Belgorod, apparently Russia moved paratroopers based at Kreminna to reinforce the city, and Ukraine acts like it's advancing, making fake positions and forcing Russian forces to respond. Obviously could be psyop or just plain lies, but interesting still. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1663840190744461314?t=SYN4bxQ6w6q5bj-EXeqNbQ&s=19

Note I didn't say the regime got more popular, only the regime got stronger, fear is a great motivation for obeying. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/27/russia-denunciations-arrests-informants-war/

From what I've seen, there is some spirited debate for and against the effectiveness of the allied strategical air campaign. I am quite partial to Tooze. https://adamtooze.com/2017/07/12/modern-history-world-war-ii-strategic-bombing-liberal-democratic-mode-war/

Oh yes, we must not anger the Russians so they don't seek to take over all of Ukraine and impose a friendly government, or annex occupied territories and cleanse them to ensure they remain forever Russian, or seek to turn Ukraine into a land locked impoverished state, or bomb out the economic and social potential of the country via infrastructure and medical facility attacks, or mass raze town and city along the front lines, or etc. There's a reason why Western attitudes towards Russia hardened after mobilization, cause domestically the regime has only grown stronger. No one is launching a coup against Putin.

It would be a wonderful thing for Russian focus to switch to Kharkov, where Ukraine can easily defend, so Ukraine can slice into the South. A few cross-border raids ain't gonna do it, or artillery fire, Ukraine should threaten Belgorod with a actual offensive, force Putin and company to have to switch offensive power to the area to push Ukraine back. These cross borders raid are therefore testing and preparing the way for the world to normalize a Russia losing territory and having enemies on their soil. So what if Russian nationalists will be happy? the indifferent population duly supplies the frontline, in men and material and watches as Ukraine is bombed night and day without complaint. Ukraine has given more than enough time for internal Russian dissent to gather strength, yet most protests and opposition to the regime has fled or been cowed. How much of Ukraine needs to burn before people accept coddling to Russian delusion is a failure?

Probably not a "order" anyone intends to follow, but how good would it be for Ukraine if the domestic concern of punishing Ukraine and looking strong to Russians caused another offensive? Oh sure, Russian offensive power is nothing, but bad decision making abounds. Hell, I wonder if Ukraine might not be keen to push these Russian rebels further into Russia, if only to provoke a easy target for Russia to launch a offensive and win.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/30/putin-administration-instructs-state-run-media-to-emphasize-authorities-response-to-drone-attacks-and-downplay-some-officials-comments

nvm

A million Russians fled pre-mobilization, I don't think that signifes the Russian population is completely under the thrall of Putin. The reluctance to mobilize, now and for the first wave also indicate that Putin fears mobilization and its effects on Russia. This indicates that Russia wants to downplay it, not play it up for mobilization imo.

As for shifting Russian public opinion in favor of "total war" against Ukraine, well if 100k dead don't cause strikes or protests against war in Ukraine, then I fail to see the point in refraining from actions that will anger Russians or be used to generate support for war weighed against other considerations.

I think striking Moscow is quite important. One, restoring Ukrainian morale is quite important. Two, illustrating to the privileged portions of Russian society that they are not immune to war, and three, of which I consider most important, gradual erosion of Russian "red lines". Ukraine is slowly, inexorably moving towards a state of war that is prepping Russia, the West and the world for Russia's defeat. A winning country does not get their capital drone striked. A winning country is definitely not winning if that occurs over and over again. And I'm sure there are plenty of military targets in Moscow to hit like Air Defense.

Certainly Ukraine is making pushes to normalize attacking enemy positions closer to Moscow. One drone, now several, then maybe some explosions, very interesting, how Ukraine is approaching this. Is there a way to stop Ukraine from doing this "escalation"? Or maybe false flag attacks? Who knows at this point. Probably Ukraine i suppose.

So just to input some both sidesness, lets assume UKR crackdown on posting of ISR is working, and therefore we arent getting lots of info about Russian hits on UKR military/infrastructure targets in Kiev, what factors make Kiev a important logistical target? Isn't it like a main route to send stuff East? Now, I know the focus is on Kiev, being the capital and all, but what the rest of Ukraine, do we have data on where missiles and drones are being sent into Ukraine? I know there was a missile attack on Dnipro, so their missiles are hitting other places than Kiev, including Kherson.

to be frank, leaving Sweden out of NATO isn't that big a deal, end of the day, Finland will be the shield on Sweden's east. Keeping the exit out of the Black Sea in NATO hands is way more important than Sweden entering. Besides, i feel like Turkey is just looking for concessions, and brow-beating for the election.

In the middle of a thread detailing the huge amount of awards and decorations established by Defense Minister Shoigu, evidence for Russia fully intending on seizing Crimea is revealed by Shoigu.

lots of C2 indeed.

Makes sense to me.

I am unsure what your framing is referring to, but if I’m understanding you correctly, you are asserting Russian policy isn’t genocidial in the context of Ukrainians forced to settle in Russia? I don’t think you are asserting that, but definitely Russia has been realizing they are losing on the PR front involving their forced resettlement of Ukrainians and so policy is shifting to stop leaks and well publicized escapes and rescues, and why this occurred in the first place, Ukraine able to score big victories in the info space on this, (if Russia really is genocidal, wouldn’t they be more cautious in keeping it under wraps?) I think is similar to the idea that resulted in the invasion in the first place, the idea that Ukraine and Ukrainians would passively, actively fold to Russia, that obviously Russia would succeed. I mean sure, maybe Putin did force the entire government and country and military to obey him to invade Ukraine and there were those who knew it might fail, organized mafia states don’t allow dissent, but as the mobilizations or lack thereof illustrates, certainly people are aware of actions that result in destruction and will take measures to escape, but like you say yourself, or allude to, Putin is not all powerful, and so, what I’m trying to say, sure the way the Russian state is built is violence, and therefore it’s agents are violent, but all states exist thru the threat of violence and more importantly, on agreement that violence, in return for being controlled and focused, is accepted. The violence of mobilization of Russian citizens is such a risk to Putin that most certainly a part of their loss will be their inability to accept the risk, yet the risk of enraging Ukraine and Ukrainians which will directly match the fury to resist, means a lot less. Like a lot. I’ll be clear in stating I don’t think you’re arguing against what I’m asserting rn, but I am saying terror in service of genocide is more likely than terror in service of just violent organization. Tho just expressing that, makes little sense, as genocide is terror of the broadest sense….I guess what I’m saying is this violence is completely intended, approved and accepted and by extension, accepted. I mean, the bestowing of honors to the unit involved in Bucha should attest as much. the destruction of medical and humanitarian facilities that were supposed to be protected under IHL in Syria, during a “respectable” seeking stance by Russia, before the crushing in the present times of dissent in Russia, should be more than enough to signify evidence that Russia is capable of genocide, with brutality such a hallmark of society as to expand beyond the mafia state and into the rest of society.