FancyCat

Tbh I'm not sure if Ukraine gained much or even i think lost a bit. Depending on the terms of Wagner and Prig in Belarus, Ukraine may need to deal with a armed force that can and is willing to attack the north. One thing to remember sure, Prig called the war goals and reasoning lies and falsehoods, but it is extremely clear the Russian people have been lobotomized politically, the Russian elite content with invading Ukraine. Reasoning means nothing domestically, only the material reality. Reality is war is profitable, especially for people like Prig who gained power, wealth off of the SMO, and certainly staying the war promises continued reasoning and material for existence. The prospect of war, the loot, the pay clearly is enough to gain some sort of semibalance of manpower increase. Consider the fact Wagner has noted victories, certainly a portion of low ranking sympathy for Prig is in the fact that he has wins. End of the day, no matter who rules in Russia, everyone seems to agree that killing Ukrainians is perfectly fine. Only that they aren't killing them effectively or doing what's needed to kill them.

Let's dial it back some. Prig was about to lose his power and life?, he called MoD's bluff? Neither want to do full scale gang war, so having shown he can escalate, he gets to live, gets to do something in Belarus, keeps a small army, and gets actual power recognition by everyone including Putin. If it ain't some Turkish coup power play, maybe reality is taking over the Russian state isnt easy, nor exactly desired...plus a cook ain't becoming head of state. He probably would have been quietly rid of had he gotten to Moscow and trapped by bureaucracy.

Turkish coup that failed.....same story here? I dunno but Wagner sounds dissolved...

Well ****. Not great for Ukraine.

Hmm is likely really true? I think it's definitely likely that FSB knew or factions of it were aware. They have to be, this coordinated action and Putin looking like a fool definitely requires loyal parts to Putin to have failed him.

Late Han dynasty vibes, the Emperor a figurehead.

Warlords....we have been acting like they must toss Putin from power, but it's not exactly clear cut as that, as any usurper would lack any legitimacy domestically or internationally. Legitimacy matters for the normal functioning of state, from which the money flows for the powerful. If Prig can toss his enemies in the MoD, ensure his power and authority increase, he doesn't need to overthrow or kill Putin necessarily. Will he need to look around for knives? Sure but I feel like he understands that and is fine with it.

Denial of resources to Wagner? Crikey.

If this lasts longer without Wagner or Putin winning, both sides will have to start involving forces in Ukraine, plenty of whom may be sympathetic to Wagner and probably plenty loyal to Putin. Spanish civil war vibes, where both sides ferry in loyal troops, Africa for Wagner, Syria for Putin, and how long before units in Russia start shooting each other? Christ.

Wagner would never lie.

Voronezh, Rostov, that’s the main logistical hubs for the SMO no?