FancyCat

1917 had a preclude, 1905, caused by Russian humiliation from the Russo-Japanese War. Tho comparisons are already ehhh, I would say 1905 is closer than 1917 now.

I've been waiting for France's Military Industrial Complex to loudly try and get some equipment like some fighter jets to Ukraine. I doubt France, still seething over the AUS-USA sub deal is willing to let the next battle fall so quickly to the F-16.

Your not wrong, but the massive undoing by Russia's own internal and external messaging on it being a war to provide security against NATO that has accompanied the attempt at a full scale invasion of Ukraine is what changed the game. You bring up Russian arguments against NATO encroachment, but nothing, absolutely nothing about the attempts to annex Ukraine, discredit Ukrainian statehood, undermining Ukrainian culture and nationality. Literally speeches on and the beginning of the war by Putin, were not aimed at gathering justification for NATO encroaching on Russian security concerns, they were tirades bemoaning the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russian culture, assertions of the falsehood of Ukraine as a legitimate state and the Ukrainian people as a separate entity from Russia. So, this war is not due to NATO, by Russia's own admission, it is a war of conquest and subjugation of Ukraine.

Hoo boy, in December 2021, not only did Russia sought to turn Ukraine neutral, they drafted a treaty that: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/12/21/russias-draft-agreements-with-nato-and-the-united-states-intended-for-rejection/ 1. No NATO membership for Ukraine. So indeed you are correct, a legal binding treaty "designed to protect Russia" But guess what, let's look at the rest of the draft treaty you assert the West, NATO, Biden and etc chose to ignore instead of "peace". 2. Withdrawal of NATO forces from points 1997 onwards. As the link shows, this was agreed and obeyed by NATO until the occupation of Crimea. So tough luck Putin, and certainly Seminole you should lay out why NATO should agree to a concession to Russia for invading her neighbors. As Brookings points out, where's the safety mechanisms for the Baltics, Poland from aggressive Russian deployments on their borders? So no, the draft Russian treaties were not merely to turn Ukraine neutral, they are designed to handicap the defense of Eastern European NATO states and impose a new security order at the expense of Eastern Europe. Do explain what is reasonable about this.

What evidence do you have that Russia launched this invasion to prevent Ukraine entering NATO? On the eve of the invasion, multiple European countries offered to guarantee Ukraine would be denied NATO membership. NATO membership has always been a far off prospect anyhow, considering how every member state is required to approve the accession of a new state.

was this posted? Also, Crimea, explosions are being reported at a railway junction/airfield?

If I recall, the eastern half of Bakhmut is in Russian hands, Ukraine holds the west, with a solid defense line anchored on better terrain west of Bakhmut. Not a big bulge, but certainly Russia is very bogged down in Bakhmut.

Isn't it still muddy?

stone age? Mayans and Aztecs had cities that rivaled any in Europe. In North America, the same was true. Had the diseases unleashed by European arrival not occurred, i daresay history would have been far different. And incorrect on ethnic and racial tensions unleashed due to different ethnic groups, incorrect by far. Nativist parties opposed to immigrant of these new European groups were significant political forces in the U.S. I will be blunt, your idea of the U.S in this post is quite untrue. Tho like Steve said, definitely a example of the nationalism that continues to influence the world, in varying amounts.

No, sadly you are incorrect, manifest destiny actually has it's start pre-revolution, part of the grievances against the Crown was the inability to push Indians further west, inability to settle Canada that the crown restricted. Much of the rest is also incorrect but Im busy.

It amazes me that most news reports omit that Russia can still supply Europe and still sends gas thru two pipelines, going via Poland and Ukraine itself!

The pipelines thru Poland and Ukraine still exist and flow. Makes little sense to silence NS1 and NS2 when easily Russia can reallocate to those two. False flag operations and misinformation also abound and whatever incompetence in the Russian military, i think does not translate the same to their intelligence services and most certainly the public will not get the truth during the war.

Could a nonstate actor really blow up the pipelines?

truly, i wonder how much is misinformation and what isn't. and certainly war tourism or fact finding mission, these can also be spun or faked. also applies to the russian side.

A more clear example of the power of communications in crafting genocide is Radio RTLM, in Rwanda, prior and during the genocide it broadcast propaganda, coordinated actions of militia and painted targets on the heads of opposition and ethnic leaders. After the genocide, the UN established court eventually convicted several announcers and leaders of the radio station for inciting genocide. It is important to note war has rules, and Russia has since the start of the invasion, has appeared less and less willing to confront Ukrainian claims of violations of war crimes with due process and good faith. As noted, prior history already indicates prior Russian lack of willingness to work in accordance with international law and NGOs to stand by these rules. Since the invasion, lots of pretense has been dropped further. The establishment of war crimes tribunals, punishment and investigation by Ukraine, with Western NGO and institutional support will be key in a future broader base for establishing allegations against the Russian government as a whole.

Soldiers interviewed. Snippets taken out and quoted. Certainly not a great picture of the defense of Bakhmut. Ammo shortages, insufficient training, lack of heavy equipment and ammo, insufficient ISR. https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected

Interestingly, the brigade has its own recon/drone section now. Very interesting interview, strongly suggest reading it.

It’s still winter. The mud has grounded all of Ukraine. New tiers of aid have not arrived. I’ve certainly argued the current discussion plenty, but I think it’s quite too soon to reopen it, as winter is ongoing since the last.

Why would anyone use stats after Russia invaded Ukraine....without tons of salt and analysis?

I'm pretty unconcerned about Russia retaining customers and states that refuse to cut off economic ties. The world economy is interconnected, as seen before, lack of Russian or Ukrainian grain piles economic pressure on other countries and regions. Same goes for oil, natural gas, etc. Cut off Russian oil and gas and the price goes up? That defeats the purpose of maintaining our economic strength as most states are consumers. Even the U.S as a producer, unless market control of pricing is done, higher gas prices will affect the population. The main thing should be preventing Russia from making the tools needed for war. Frankly, Russia can export all the gas and oil it wants, they cannot get back jet parts, drones, etc. Again, equipment to Ukraine must keep going and increase in volume.

Butschi is correct. Luckily, Russia tied itself as much to Europe as Europe to Russia, so damage can be done on that front. But its not totally clear that time is on Ukraine's side. Better to smash Russia and end the conflict before the calculus for other states to start supporting Russia goes up. Abandoning Ukraine will not rescue opinions of the West worldwide.