FancyCat

Evidence of heavy handed tactics recruiting migrant workers in Russia: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64582985

Eng language version: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/02/13/that-extra-heavy-load Ahh if only, poetic justice for MH17.

From the same link, At the end of the day, Russia's prestige is based on its domination of its neighbors. The First, Second Chechen Wars, the Invasion of Georgia, and 2014 Ukraine only reinforce this point.

Again, France considered Algeria a part of the French homeland, until it wasn't. If France can let go of a 132 year old part their homeland and not nuke it in vengeance, I'm sure Russia can give up a 9 year part of their homeland as well. On that note, Russia still adopts the Soviet stance that the Baltic states were annexed willingly into the Soviet Union. Can we really sit and rely on the assertions of the Russian government that Crimea is forever Russian and totally a red line? old opinion piece, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2015/07/14/how-russia-sees-baltic-sovereignty-a48143 Certainly, Putin's actions in annexing Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts should be considered. He has diluted the claim of all Russian annexations of Ukrainian territory in a action to desperately try and stave off Western support. Clearly, annexation isn't a big red line.

Algeria was considered a core part of France until it wasn't.

Fighting in urban areas has served Ukraine well. Not sure why anyone wants them to favor open terrain against numerically superior artillery.

Just cause a dude is corrupt does not mean he's a idiot or not a soldier or not unable to make command decisions.

Thread of a reporter for the AFP from Bakhmut.

Something to note, we don't want oil prices to rise, removing Russian supply of oil can lead it to oil prices rising. While we want to limit money flowing to Russia, its counterproductive for Western economies relying on cheap energy to stop the flow. It also has knock on effects on the world economy. Recall the fear of shortages from grain from Ukraine and Russia causing prices to rise?

Its my impression that at least for Mariupol is that withdrawal from favorable urban terrain is not recommended, and served as the best ground for Ukraine to sap Russian strength with the best chance of maintaining Ukraine's strength. In the summer, the defenses in urban terrain best keep Russian artillery and combined arms from annihilating Ukrainian forces.

I mentioned it before, not sure if it was talked about, but does Ukraine have a military justice system that is significantly more lenient than the West? Apparently according to the article below, soldiers who refuse to obey orders or flee can at most be fined, not imprisoned. Perhaps that is a factor in units fleeing or refusing to move. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/5970

I'm skipping some of the things you stated, I just want to point out, if Russia were to cease all offensive operations, and simply stick to lobbing drones and missiles into Ukraine with a frozen frontline, unless Western aid were to actually give aid to and support Ukraine in striking back those missile sites, we could result in a situation where no peace treaty is possible, where simply Ukraine endures long range fire that makes economic recovery not really possible due to attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. The 8 years from 2014 to now, never had a situation where Russia was lobbing missiles on Ukraine from Kharkiv to Lviv, it was strictly isolated to the Donbas, big difference than this current reality. Also, I didn't say Russia needs to be destroyed. I'm just pointing out LLF isn't outlandish in his more pessimistic idea that Russia is in a better position than previously. I'm just pointing out that Russia has multiple ways of getting out this conflict, in a way that results in a less than favorable position for Ukraine and the West. As a goal of the invasion was to not only take Ukraine, but render the West ineffectual in responding, and signify Russia regaining prominence internationally. If he cannot take Ukraine, he needs to make sure the West and Ukraine don't come out positively at the least, to maintain his domestic and foreign legitimacy. That means, the more he loses or is rendered unable to affect the battlefield, he will strike at the West in hybrid form, and keep targeting Ukraine's infrastructure, to broadcast Russia's ability to damage. And yes, the West's goals and Ukraine's goals do not match, it is certainly part of Russian calculation that the West will give in, so we must factor that in regarding their intentions past peace.

My fear is a unstable peace. There is no guarantee a peace treaty without EU or NATO assurances will prevent further Russian meddling and attacks. As for the instability on Europe's eastern flank, you can hide behind the Mediterranean, but Ukraine does supply worldwide food supplies, and sits on land borders there, making it hard in the event of a future refugee crisis. As for NATO and EU continued support, Russia is betting on it waning, if Russia thinks it might fail, then its worth considering it as a possibility.

Any scenario where Ukraine cannot regain her pre-invasion borders is a loss for Ukraine, and a loss for the West. Any scenario where Ukraine is economically crippled, is unable to ensure security for the country and its people, is also a loss for the West. If Ukraine cannot regain her pre-invasion borders, it is quite low the chances for Ukraine to be successful security wise to gain economic growth. Also quite low for EU and NATO membership with the spectre of Russian involvement to continue UNLESS Ukraine regains at least pre-invasion territory. (and frankly, i doubt NATO will accept Ukraine with still Crimea and Donbas lost, and i dont see Ukraine giving up the land de jure) If Russia can drag Ukraine down, it wins. If Russia can cause a long-term cancer to the West in the form of a unstable, war torn Ukraine, it wins. Also unsure we can define Russia as a "politically and economically fragile entity" at this point. Its war making ability continues. Politically, it looks pretty secure. Economically? Still working.

Quick reminder Ukraine does suffer losses of western artillery, including SPGs. I hope NATO is prepped to keep increasing artillery shipments.

A lot of components, you can buy on aliexpress or Alibaba. Downside of cheaper drone manufacturing, the parts are cheap too.

I saw this comment chain on Reddit, linked here According to the linked article, up until now, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/5970 More info can be found in the article, most likely I'm ignorant to Western practices, and perhaps the article is lacking some context, but this sounds quite strange vs any western military no?