FancyCat

If I were Russia and I expected to lose control of the dam very soon, and I didn't mind killing civilians, destroying the dam, i.e, destroying the social and economic potential in a region I don't expect to hold and expect to shortly be liberated and used for my enemy.... Well, I might just blow the dam.

It's ridiculous to suggest Ukraine would destroy the dam. The negatives for Ukraine are exceeding vast.

I like the emphasis on the mid-level intelligence officers (i assume the big dogs have palaces, or the like?) here. I wanna point the usefulness of IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, and the IAEA since the beginning of 2023, has permanent teams monitoring all nuclear plants in Ukraine, not just ZNPP. It's a major failing that Ukraine's request for monitoring the Kakhovka dam was ignored. https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/21/zelensky-says-russia-is-preparing-a-terrorist-attack-on-kakhovka-dam

Chief of Staff for Navalny suggests not sabotage but engineering failure. Will not endear Navalny to Ukraine. Of course, lets see how the U.S intel changes their stance.

The article states that both the U.S and the European country that got the intel both informed Germany, who's intelligence agency briefed German lawmakers of the intel.

If the U.S pulls out the smoking gun on the dam, what do you think will be the Western reply? I'm thinking ATACMS. Also, what do you think Ukraine is gonna do? I'm 100 percent thinking more attacks in Russia proper, including Ukrainian ground units attacking Belgorod.

Article states the European agency also informed Germany, aside from the U.S also informing Germany. So it's not Germany definitely that sourced it.

The thing about this new intelligence regarding the destruction of NS1 and NS2 is that the intelligence was shared with Germany in June, I don't think Ukraine would deliberately bomb Nordstream after Germany and other Western partners were aware of it.

Excerpts: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

Any bridgehead across the flooded region needs to contend with crap logistics, wouldn't make sense for Ukraine to do that.

Meh, if you think the offensive is going to be successful, then Ukraine was gonna retake the dam and the canal soon enough anyway so water supply to Crimea was gonna stop soon enough anyway. That road would have been key to supplying forces on the left bank.

You can plant explosives underwater right? Wouldn't that mitigate visible damage?

https://tass.com/russia/1535583 Enough water for 2 years.

Wasn't it shut down in 2014 by Ukraine and restored only after the invasion in 2022? Would mean they got by without water for 8 years no? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

Was the dam under Russian control or Ukrainian? I find it hard to believe the dam would not have been destroyed by Ukraine till now since before there was a Russian military group stuck on the right bank. Sure, Russian defenses are flooded but river crossings are probably impossible, civilian suffering will occupy most resources in the area, and Russia can shift forces elsewhere with a safe flank.

Tbh, I find these small scale attacks in the border to be not as fulfilling as they could be. Keep it small scale, without threatening supply lines or political priorities and Russia can essentially ignore them. Gotta hit either the supply lines, or make a large push into Belgrod to draw away Russian forces.