FancyCat

Who said they won? Who said this war is existential for Russia? These are future predicting statements, one I would caution people against believing firmly are decided. A Ukraine where if the front line froze right here is unlikely to get NATO or EU membership, unlikely to get security assurances without a formal peace (which I highly doubt Russia would give if it stopped Ukraine here, mindful of those potential security assurances), it would unlikely to be rebuilt, with a unstable security situation, a dead carcass tied to Europe. Hardly winning. As for unrest in Russia, the population is cowed, the elites are mindful of the system's benefits, the wobbliness of Putin's regime is there, but definitely less than anticipated.

Igor Sushko is useless btw. just posts random bs.

i would warn against rehashing the same arguments over the future of Russia and how to best manage its collapse since its one that goes quite a long number of pages (i kid). but one thing is clear by the current crisis, neither side, for varied reasons, wants to undergo a full scale civil war, or general collapse, which is surely a good thing that both sides understand that despite jockeying for control, both will lose in the event Russia descends into chaos.

Sure, but Prig's pitches are also along the lines, of one, not affecting the war effort, great care to emphasize war against Ukraine would continue, and were aimed at stopping the incompetencies of the MoD to wage war. Feels more like the whole rhetoric was hunting for support based than anything along the lines of pro-peace.

His faction, didn't they get rid of alongside the other Donbas warlords and leaders before 2022? https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673346277814198275?s=19 Let's think about the implications that Wagner might have made a alliance with Luka. The man is very savvy, having balanced the EU and Russia without going the way of Ukraine. Say if Wagner didn't get disbanded, but is allowed to exist, and continue activities, it might be better to think Putin has indeed lost some control over it, and maybe therefore Luka has gained some use of them.

Random commentor but I think Grigb might agree, messaging to keep RU Nats from exploding with anger?

Tbf, haven’t we seen criticism of Putin to occur, a controlled mic? In reality, it’s a outlet that conceals the control of the media.

Interesting perspective.

Shoigu and Gerasimov, is it normal for them to not say anything?

Huh. That sounds way more like MoD winning? Prig and Wagner who are disloyal, killed Russian troops, exiled to Belarus, depending on terms, sounds like limited potential for recruitment and obviously, time given to Putin and co to reinforcing Moscow. Then MoD…well I dunno, how much of the MoD gave orders to fight back? We have Putin saying to kill them, I’ve assumed orders were given that the lower ranking disobeyed, but do we know if the MoD ordered resistance? What if the orders never filtered down? a twitter commentor made a decent point, Prig had to stop at the Oka river, do we know in actuality if the bridges were blown? Could he have made the crossing with the bridges blown? Imagine if he got held up, with only 5000? personnel outside Moscow with increasing forces potentially amassing. Sure, if he turned back from Moscow and went to voronezh but not a great look. Sure, fighting into Rostov, Voronezh, he could have held out a long time, but if we wonder about his goals, and understand it’s merely to get some balance of freedom (MoD wanted his arrest), then makes sense he takes this and runs. Walk into Moscow, he’s dead, hold out longer, the chances of an agreement lessen. Stay and fight in Ukraine and join the impending defeat? Huh. Or maybe im missing something?

Are we sure that Wagner is going into retirement into Belarus? Obviously their operations worldwide continue, and if I was Prig, I would want to see Wagner keep acting as an active military unit, cementing his legitimacy and retaining influence. Would also force MoD to keep supplying him. And while we certainly have seen little incursions by Russia into North Ukraine, I feel like Wagner might feel differently about fighting, and again, it gives him the ability to retain the spotlight, steal MoD shine, keep himself from getting taken out in Belarus.

I mean at this point, Putin’s lack of control has been unmasked. Example, how did the intelligence services miss this? You don’t need to invade Moscow, capture Putin, or any further than what Wagner got actually, to see that Putin’s presence is severely diminished, his orders aren’t being obeyed, that clearly Prig had help and allies, can we say the coup didn’t succeed? It depends on the next days and so, but dynamic has changed. But we gotta see what happens to Shoigu and Gerasimov. Where the hell are they?

I don’t think it serves the coup plotters, whatever faction or group, to overthrow Putin and break the legitimacy of government and state. They fear the chaos of the 90s. Better to go to Putin and tell him he no longer controls things, and now changes will be done by this faction with veiled legitimacy, and a gun in the form of Wagner or otherwise, so it would be best to obey. putin does hold legitimacy domestically and internationally, whatever blow he takes, is still better than the void caused by militarily invading Moscow and arresting him and his inner circle. (Assuming it isn’t some of them in on the plot, assuming this exists)

I think they get to choose, sign contracts with MoD to stay in Ukraine or stay with Wagner and be deployed to one of Wagner's other missions. Originally it was sign contracts with MoD to stay in Ukraine?

Recall our discussions about potential breakup scenarios for Russia? For example, the slow decline and continued allegiance to Moscow/Putin/central government yet just continued fracturing under the surface? Random commentor, but my point is that ruling Russia requires a lot of alliances and agreements made with the right people, and Prig probably isn't able to make them being who he is, he's just likely to end up the puppet of some Moscow faction, get pushed into a vulnerable corner where they get to stab him in the back.