FancyCat

You know, I think about the living standards argument for the West winning, how much does the West really produce and export "better living standards", i mean iphones are made in China, and so I don't think living standards are sliding downward yet to put pressure on Russians. Sure the prices go up, and so the availability will go down, but I feel that the loopholes to keep exports going will be broader and more lax than any of the cold war. Sure, a defeat for Russia is likely, but mind you, Russia is brutal, far more brutal to insurgencies than the West. Chechnya is quiet. The occupied Donbas are fighting for Russia, or already fled to unoccupied Ukraine (or neutral, but the same point stands). The West withdrew from Afghanistan cause it no longer had a reason to stay, that wasn't worth the cost. Sure, Russia withdrew too, except the amount dead is way over Afghanistan.

Good time to remember, that the situations for Russia leading into WWI and today are way different. Example, yes, shortages and domestic dissent paralyzed the state, but the opposition was stronger then, not like today. You had alternative power structures and groups that could take advantage of the vacuum, but so far we see none of that in Putin's Russia. Recall also, 1905 Revolution to which many consider a key part of leading to 1918. Might well be the same that 2022 is 1905, where the Russian state gets a moral wound, but isn't out. But no signs of that occurring right now.

U.S strategy on Asia relies on encircling China with a ring of bases, allied states, and the ability to cut the sealanes. How is this ring of allied states supposed to side with the U.S if we can't supply weapons and money to Ukraine for less than a year? All this rhetoric focusing on China and asking for switching focus from Russia seems to ignore the fact that Putin and Xi are closely aligned! Weaken one and you weaken the other.

Nah I think you didn't say anything controversial. With the excuse that it took years and dozens of years for lots of classified and secret measures to be revealed from WWII, I will say I've seen reporting that Ukrainian General Staff did their best to be tight lipped about such things like the plans for the defense of Kiev to prevent it from leaking to Russia. You know, while I'm sure U.S and NATO ISR is great....I doubt Ukraine wouldn't have better insight into their own country, their own HUMINT sources than the West.

Head of Meduza, a Russian opposition newspaper, shared this perspective. Whether or not you disagree with this coming true or even be possible, it is a interesting look at how might domestic opinions inside Russia are perceiving Putin's rhetoric. Obviously lots of differences between Israel and Palestine and etc but again, a interesting domestic viewpoint of Russia. Whether true or not, I think all pro-Ukrainians recognize that a scenario along Israeli-Palestinian lines is a clear loss for Ukraine and success for Russia. (For the last time, what one thinks vs the reality is never matching, before I get piled on) Reality of course being such a scenario is not really possible in my opinion, the fact that Putin may be trying to accomplish it, well, the West needs to up it's game. (Whether it is, I am leaning towards yes)

Or the better thing to bring up, why should any state in Asia side with the U.S vs China if we can't be guaranteed to simply provide ammo? Much less anything that might cost blood...if we can't do so in Ukraine?

Opposing Russia weakens China. The calculation by Russia and maybe tacitly approved by China envisioned a weakened and divided West unable to oppose a Russian conquest of Ukraine, heralding a new period of Russian resurgence and anti-western leadership. Moves to shy away from facing Russia only embolden China and give other front line states that could be potential allies and counters to China reasons to doubt Western resolve.

GUR has Black Hawks! replaced with official source.

I look forward to Republican lawmakers proposing new safety regulations, extending more benefits to rail workers, and advocating greater government intervention in economic realms in the name of safety. Say both sides all you want, but on regulation, the consistent policy of the Republican Party forever has been less government regulations stifling economic competition, less unions, less oversight, so unless these calls for focus on Ohio include the prior mentioned expanded government and anti-business power, I doubt this rhetoric is genuine. I mean recall the rail strike, Congress is the lawmaking branch, Rubio who criticized the DoT and lack of regulations here: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-question-rail-oversight-after-toxic-ohio-derailment-2023-02-15/ Advocated a few months ago instead of utilizing Congress's ability to change and make laws to positively support rail workers, asked the Biden admin. to withdraw this bill and throw it back to the rail companies and rail unions to hash out another agreement. https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2022/11/rubio-congress-shouldn-t-vote-to-impose-agreement-on-rail-workers Congress has the ability to force a agreement on the rail companies and rail unions along whatever lines they want, yes, there were Democrat and Republican lawmakers who preferred to let the rail dispute end, but if we really want to resolve this issue, Republican and Democrat lawmakers should come together and improve the regulatory environment, impose a new rail agreement that provides more benefits to rail workers. But only one party consistently skews anti-regulation, and has the House majority to boot. It would be nice tho if this gathered speed and urgency in Congress. but I am unhopeful.

Your missing my point, which is to state that Germany has been a leading power in Europe for centuries and continues to be, and that wishes for a "weak, divided and confused" Germany as being "unfair to Germany" is implying that the wishes are unfair or for prior past slights and have no interest in the present when I'm emphasizing that's not remotely true. Like that meme about Germany rearming, everyone should be worried you see every so often. Jokes they are, but they indicate that people seem ignorant as to German military history, so people might be more lenient towards Germany refusing to "rearm" or make weapons. Not that I'm saying it was wrong for Germany to reduce it's military, just that this pacifist position is not simple. Or take for example German foreign policy, which one can reasonably consider Aragon alluded to in "weak, divided, confused", as to portray Germany as taking second fiddle to the U.S, following its lead. No absolutely not. Germany did not weakly expand trade cooperation with Russia, did not weakly lead the Normandy Format and Minsk agreements, did not weakly profit from decades of energy integration with Russia. This idea that "woe, you will regret empowering Germany" or "woe, we can't make a decision cause you kept us weak" is part of this idea that Germany is not responsible for being the leading economy in Europe or has no obligation to take a position, and that's just not true. Nothing wrong with being opposed to Germany doing this, but acting as if people are unreasonable for pressuring Germany, as if Germany didn't seek out being the most powerful economy in Europe or seek out Russian closeness to the west, that's just not reality. Tldr, Germany acting weak, unwilling, indecisive, is not due to European desires for such a Germany, but are simply cover for whatever domestic or foreign policy Germany has. Which is fine! But shielding from the criticism by acting like Germany didn't want to be the leading economy in Europe and was forced into it is silly.

wut? WUT? Forgive me but im slapping myself silly with this take. Both East and West Germany were powerful states on either side of the cold war, economically and militarily. By no means was the Bundeswehr or NVA "weak".

S large scale naval landings did not occur west of Mariupol, small scale actions I suppose according to this from USMA occurred a few days after the invasion began. https://mwi.usma.edu/what-can-we-learn-about-amphibious-warfare-from-a-conflict-that-has-had-very-little-of-it-a-lot/ Now a reporter for RFE noted here that Berdyansk fell 4 days into the invasion. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-berdyansk-russia-occupation-life/31798991.html Wiki says Mariupol was encircled on March 1st so I suppose either Ukraine had nothing to counter the limited naval landings or Russian units simply sped into Berdyansk on land from the east.

I wouldn't say the naval or air forces haven't played their part, abit lacking. Certainly the naval economic blockade of the Ukrainian black sea ports is a big issue for Ukraine, and as long as they theoretically hold Crimea, either naval or air blockade can make transit for merchant vessels risky to say the least. During the first days of the war, Russia used their naval control to land forces west of Mariupol, and seized Berdyansk. Certainly Ukraine might have prevented a land bridge between the Donbas and Crimea longer had Russia been prevented from naval landings. https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russian-navy-carries-out-amphibious-assault-near-mariupol

Arent UKR logistics still not completely professionalized? Maybe our Ukrainian posters can provide insight on the civilian, volunteers, aid and logistics they provide, are they essential items? Drones, aid kits, I've seen vehicles fundraised, my question is why the need seemingly if it's professionalized. Maybe just a thin layer of frosting on a cake or maybe substantial?

Certainly, defense needs have not been prioritized post-cold war, and certainly after the conclusion of the multinational missions to AFG and Iraq, I doubt any European state was looking towards maintaining tanks. (except maybe Finland but obviously they want to keep them for good reasons) More important is the IFVs, APCs, artillery for the immediate for Ukraine. Article detailing the wartime powers of the President. I don't think its a bad thing, certainly wartime requires walking over red tape and secrecy but still interesting to read.

Current head of Bellingcat has fled to North America from Austria in response reportedly of Russian intelligence and Austrian turncoats hunting him.

We do need to worry about escalation risks from Russia, feigned or real. If Russia did have Crimea as a red line, it would be best for the West to hit that red line as slow as possible, to avoid having to pull support quicker and with more time to maintain support.

Report detailing evidence of Iranian drones being used by Russia. https://www.dia.mil/News-Features/Articles/Article-View/Article/3297418/dia-report-confirms-russias-use-of-lethal-iranian-unmanned-aerial-vehicles-in-u/

Evidence of heavy handed tactics recruiting migrant workers in Russia: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64582985