FancyCat

I am unsure what your framing is referring to, but if I’m understanding you correctly, you are asserting Russian policy isn’t genocidial in the context of Ukrainians forced to settle in Russia? I don’t think you are asserting that, but definitely Russia has been realizing they are losing on the PR front involving their forced resettlement of Ukrainians and so policy is shifting to stop leaks and well publicized escapes and rescues, and why this occurred in the first place, Ukraine able to score big victories in the info space on this, (if Russia really is genocidal, wouldn’t they be more cautious in keeping it under wraps?) I think is similar to the idea that resulted in the invasion in the first place, the idea that Ukraine and Ukrainians would passively, actively fold to Russia, that obviously Russia would succeed. I mean sure, maybe Putin did force the entire government and country and military to obey him to invade Ukraine and there were those who knew it might fail, organized mafia states don’t allow dissent, but as the mobilizations or lack thereof illustrates, certainly people are aware of actions that result in destruction and will take measures to escape, but like you say yourself, or allude to, Putin is not all powerful, and so, what I’m trying to say, sure the way the Russian state is built is violence, and therefore it’s agents are violent, but all states exist thru the threat of violence and more importantly, on agreement that violence, in return for being controlled and focused, is accepted. The violence of mobilization of Russian citizens is such a risk to Putin that most certainly a part of their loss will be their inability to accept the risk, yet the risk of enraging Ukraine and Ukrainians which will directly match the fury to resist, means a lot less. Like a lot. I’ll be clear in stating I don’t think you’re arguing against what I’m asserting rn, but I am saying terror in service of genocide is more likely than terror in service of just violent organization. Tho just expressing that, makes little sense, as genocide is terror of the broadest sense….I guess what I’m saying is this violence is completely intended, approved and accepted and by extension, accepted. I mean, the bestowing of honors to the unit involved in Bucha should attest as much. the destruction of medical and humanitarian facilities that were supposed to be protected under IHL in Syria, during a “respectable” seeking stance by Russia, before the crushing in the present times of dissent in Russia, should be more than enough to signify evidence that Russia is capable of genocide, with brutality such a hallmark of society as to expand beyond the mafia state and into the rest of society.

The idea Putin is or was some balancer and not a hardcore Russian nationalist seeking to resurrect the Empire died with the invasion in 2022 but I appreciate that old age and COVID continue stripping away what impulses for choosing more moderate lying on his part and the Russian government in terms of foreign PR. I mean anyone seriously pro-Western leaning yet still cautious, I doubt they can look at this ridiculousness and not conclude Minsk III has no chance of being successful. Russian statements from the foreign ministry are completely out of sync for example. Not even a hint of pretending to negotiate, to get the West lured into some sort of lull. also the pathways for Ukrainians are starting to close for escaping Russia. It’s heartbreaking, and genocidial. I just wanna point out, Putin murdering Lukashenko to force Belarus into the war is ridiculous. A lot of what Russia does now is ridiculous tho. Sometimes I wonder if Putin and co are trying the “mad dog” threatening stance, to convince the West if they don’t get what they want, the nukes actually will occur so better to fold and give Russia its rightful inheritance.

Supply lines aren’t great, and reinforcements from Belgorod would hit them in the flank no?

I know conventionally Ukraine will probably not seek to invade Russian territory, but it might be time to consider if Ukraine were to push a limited offensive, what objectives in or near Belgorod would Ukraine want to strike whether it be a offensive to knock it out or push within artillery range to destroy? a look at the map shows not a lot of valuable real estate along Ukraine’s northern border with Russia until Belgorod.

Maybe it’s just me, but this ramp up of activity looks well in swing, along every front.

Ship was nearer to Turkey than Ukraine, while I know nothing about how ISR works, why wouldn't they just set up shop in the port in Crimea to monitor Ukraine?

Little by little, more and more regions of Russia are starting to see effects of war. Krasnodar is quite far away from the frontlines. Little by little, Ukrainian attacks into Russia proper are being normalized. Recall the first forays and the heightened worries and rhetoric about Russian escalation, and now UAVs, explosions go off in the border regions and barely a peep is heard in the West.

500+ pilots? Obviously, certainly not. And certainly while Ukraine asked for the barn house, they remain asking for Western, modern IFVs, APCs, and tanks, and airframes, and are singularly focused on the F-16, not A-10 and F-16 like in the past, Leopards and M1s, or Gepards and Patriots, it’s been singularly F-16, A-10, almost no talk of. Considering how one recalls the aspirations of prior Ukrainian requests, and the criticism they received at times, it’s particular to note A-10 is not mentioned at all by Ukraine. I’ve seen it stated that the A-10 was used in a long range, high altitude missile loitering role, if the cannon is useless, I surely think the missile role, unless it’s fine at low, low altitude as well is just as suicidal no?

This raid gives credit to the notion that a Patriot missile battery moved close enough to shoot down the 2 jets and helicopters and without detection or being counterattacked. Not only does Russia need to man against potential raids, they also need to pull valuable EW and ISR assets to prevent a repeat of this. that’s a long border. You know, I was very worried about the potential for Russia to launch raids into Ukraine, or threatening actions to fix units in place along the northern border following the initial withdrawal from Kiev, but how apt that Ukraine took the first place, gaining both PR and initiative.

Calibre Obscura retweeted a prior tweet, and he isn’t wrong, and as much as the West would like Ukraine to act on the high road, I don’t think Russia, acting the way it did while winning, stalemated, and now potentially losing, will suddenly shape up, and not instead continue double down on terror, and so at the least I expect way more border incursions to occur, with eventually Ukrainian forces at some point. Russian neonazis or other Russian nationals, no matter, tbh, if the objective is slow boiling the Russian general public, and not freaking them out, choosing Russians to raid is the way to go. Sad to say, most opposition to Putin of the more liberal or moderate variety are somewhat pacifist, or even reluctant to acknowledge the validity of the need to defeat Russia militarily, much less advocate or support Ukraine in reality. those Russians who fled Russia aren’t at least to my knowledge, supporting a anti-Putin movement or seeking to stop the war, or joining the Ukrainian armed forces or such, and so, as much as I hope these nasty people die, for now, their objectives align with Ukraine, and it would impolite to betray them and certainly is not high road wise to meat grinder them like Russia does with their conscripts and convicts.

Whats the range of the cannon on the A-10? ive only seen combat footage where the aircraft fly, fire off rockets into the air and then dip. Is this something the A-10 can perform as i dont think the cannon can be useful in any way in this conflict. What about needing to be high in the air? can the A-10 operate at the same sort of low-flying environment to not get murdered by AD? Also, noting that yes, Ukraine has more pilots than airframes, and will suffer losses, losing trained pilots is still horribly a bad decision, and we see the effects of erosion of Russian airpower via the loss of trained personnel, that applies to Ukraine as well, i would caution against sacrificing personnel for merely destroying tanks. I saw recently the SU-24 is being used potentially to fire off the Storm Shadow missile: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/su-24-fencer-is-ukraines-storm-shadow-missile-carrier On another note, didn't Putin come to power by attacking the oligarchs? i wonder if that division means Russian public still distinguish him separately from the elites of the 90s. A account on the raid: https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/24/novaya-gazeta-europe-publishes-account-by-anonymous-participant-in-belgorod-raid Russia is still trying to infiltrate Ukraine, including recruiting ISIS fighters and having them joining the military for Ukraine, https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/05/22/you-really-are-a-terrorist Hmm, if Ukraine can leverage their combat power to turn the border regions into actual combat zones, we could see huge pressure on Russia to move trained units to defend:

I’m not sure the general Russian public cares about convicts. Assuming these comments reference only Wagner mercs, I think the difference between paid/convicts vs drafted will allow the Russian public to be unconcerned about their losses.

Tho mentioned, worth mentioning Ukraine, as with prior escalatory moves, is probably seeking out the viability of major Ukrainian forces threatening Russian cities and logistics involving active large units. Whether it intends to conquer, is irrelevant, only that Russia must be forced to extend their fortifications from occupied Ukraine into the rest of the Ukrainian-Russian border. Also, good time to underscore, one year following the initial invasion, (plus a few months) and we are expecting Western combat fighter aircraft to Ukraine within a few months, at most a year, coming from atgms and ammo in February 2022. certainly Ukraine’s approach to asking for aid, I think can be considered a success.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1660662431826300929?t=HHEjaodG8RFhCmjktBpIdQ&s=19

On one hand, Ukraine does not want to saber rattle the West by attacking Russian territory, on the other hand, it is important to note the Kremlin has been doing rosy pictures of the war, sure nothing like Ukraine is invading Russia to rally the flag, except...Russia has been claiming constant victories and the near collapse of Ukraine soon...and while the rally the flag is important, Putin has been undertaking extreme care in minimizing the war's effect on Russia so I don't think there's much risk in Ukraine doing these raids.

mariupol, berdyansk, thank god for the UK and storm shadow.

That’s one way to keep supplying aid to Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pentagon-accounting-error-overvalued-ukraine-aid-by-3-billion-sources-2023-05-18/

Pro-Russians are claiming something was destroyed, and unless info or footage leaks, I doubt we will know for a good while whether this was successful or not. Honestly I expect Russian strategy to keep focus on hitting civilian and infrastructure as part of a strategy and if Russia wants to hit Ukrainian supply lines, I figure they need to clear AD as much as possible as well.