FancyCat

Arab states would love Russian oil off the market, they are desperate for market share and rising pricing but due to depressed Chinese economy, and inability to crush American oil have been unable to gain either despite years of effort. Approval for Storm Shadow missiles into Russia is basically done, just looking for a good time to announce/surprise Russia with it.

Gepards are partly expensive since they stopped making them...and the West was sleeping on drones rising...in 2013, if what im reading is correct, Jordan purchased 60 of them for 23 million euros, or about 350,000 euros per. According to Haaretz, costs of Shahed-136 drones are 193k but once Russia has domestic production, down to $50k potentially. If a single Gepard takes down 3 or 5 of them, definitely worth the cost. As for lack of footage, tapping down on air defense assets being located via footage is always good. https://thedefensepost.com/2023/11/14/us-jordan-gepard-systems-ukraine/ https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2024-02-21/ty-article-magazine/gold-for-drones-massive-leak-reveals-the-iranian-shahed-project-in-russia/0000018d-bb85-dd5e-a59d-ffb729890000

From FT, https://www.ft.com/content/48289996-e1bf-4c3e-befb-031698e89e1b, Pentagon and U.S intelligence oppose lifting restrictions, State inclined to support lifting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-administration-working-potentially-lifting-ban-ukraine-long-range-2024-09-10/ Yeah, its not yes, but its not no anymore, so i suppose the iranian missiles might be the breaking point.

@nykyt0sha on twitter pointed this out, https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng Russian opposition news outlet Mediazone found 172 confirmed conscript deaths out of 66,471 in their database. much more information as well linked, but this was such a interesting stat to see.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-searching-possible-drone-fragments-after-russian-attack-ukraine-2024-09-08/ o.O a bit silly but maybe the optics will be better if this passes and Romania does shoot them down next time.

If you don't think Ukraine has a say in Western decisionmaking and influencing when and how to escalate, tbh we aren't gonna know till long after the conflict ends to what extent that is. (Not to mention with Western decision-makers compassing the gauntlet of escalation ranging from Scholz to whatever UK prime minister is in office, it is silly to act like it's totally in concert with no opportunity for Ukrainian input) And I wasn't pointing out that long range missiles are a magic bullet, im pointing out that Ukraine is consistently pushing for things that are publicly declared to be out of bounds. I am pointing out that western denials have folded from firm nos to yes. I am pointing out items that have had many reasons for not being approved are later to found to not be as good a reason as it once was stated.

While this isn't directly related to the conversation around tanks and IFVs, I don’t think your analogy works in its current form is that Ukraine has been consistently and constantly and some have used this word in this thread responding to Ukraine’s asks in the past, seemingly “ungratefully” pushing Western boundaries, unwillingness to part with things, such that we have arrived to the point where Ukrainian F-16s fly in the skies above Ukraine, forgetting what was being said about the idea in January 2023. I've pulled some quotes below, looking back on this from Sept. 2024, it's clear to me that Ukraine has always pushed for the stuff off limits, the stuff the West is "unwilling" to provide. Tbh, I think the goal of Ukrainian requests for western aid aside from the obvious reasons, is to emphasize and make it impossible for Ukraine to be abandoned by the West and to minimize the potential of a bad peace treaty. In the broadest sense, Ukraine's strategy is to hug as close as possible to NATO and the West as to prevent the worse case scenarios from occurring, and part of that strategy has been asking the West for the stuff that makes them uncomfortable. So in my opinion, Ukraine does need IFVs and APCs and they are "available" but, First, as pointed out, Ukraine is not really pushing PR asking for more IFVs but thats not because they aren't needed, but Ukraine is actually pursuing a PR strategy emphazing on what's unavailable. IFVs and tanks were once unavailable, therefore they needed to be pushed for. Now they are not, Ukraine has bigger fish to seek. So to say Ukraine is seeking IFVs cause that's the best they can reach for, it's incorrect, they are actually reaching for long range missiles, and Second, mentioning or not mentioning them PR wise is not a indication that they think or don't think IFVs are necessary for winning the war but more their emphasis that pushing Russian red lines is probably the best way to end the war. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-fighter-jets-agenda-86c16d4b5164bfd8f1fe4697920dac27

I’ve been hating on U.S lack of support, but APCs and IFVs are a consistent and constant ask from Ukraine, and have been accordingly sent in successive aid packages if one reviews aid packages tho I feel like we could do more, it is occurring. Ukraine’s focus on publicizing aid asks has always been focused not just needs, but wants, specifically the want to push Russian red lines, so aside from air defense which is vital for preventing home front issues and which we absolutely don’t have a lot of to spare so Ukraine must fight for active systems that cut into existing use, and long range missiles to take the fight literally to Russia, Ukraine knows how to push the envelope and part of that is focusing on the big ticket stuff. IFVs are no longer big ticket. But just like things like AT-4s and Stingers that were just announced were included in the latest aid package, asking and publicizing stuff like that being needed isn’t aiming for the sky.

https://www.twz.com/air/above-all-else-jassm-would-give-ukraine-a-steady-supply-of-cruise-missiles Long ish article but supply of these is way more plentiful than Storm Shadow or Scalp.

Jomini posted something. Long thread. click it since it does pay him (i think?)

its very unfortunate that the Russian civilian population has to suffer, but...considering the ample suffering placed on Ukraine, it is a expected outcome.

Anyone attempt to review if Ukraine has built up trenches and such? I know satellite imagery detected the extensive Russian lines.