FancyCat

Biden has stated Ukraine is running out of ammo.

tbf these things were being decommissioned, so if they had a negative book value done for the accounting, it would be accurate, considering costs for decommissioning, storage, destruction.

IAEA got more access but not to the rooftops. Took small quote from the press release. Again, compared to the rest of the international community, IAEA definitely deserves props. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-172-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

The only organization with a lick of credibility during the conflict is probably the IAEA. They managed to sneak their way into gaining a permanent team onto ZNPP, and have shown a willingness to listen to both sides, like acknowledging Ukraine’s concerns and seeking more access for areas of ZNPP, and being able to manage Russia into not being expelled. props tho to the UN executive for the Black Sea grain initiative, that is important as well.

I recognize the importance of managing escalation, but on moral or ethical objectives to cluster munitions, I dunno, tut tuting the Ukrainians, who are facing a war of aggression from a aggressor who’s objective is the destruction of their country and people just seems purely idiotic and morally wrong? I mean, let’s objectively ask what side is worse, in terms of regard for the ideals and spirit of IHL and civilians. we have Russia….who refuses UN and NGO access to their occupied areas, who have camps to filtrate civilians, who deport by force civilians, who kidnap children, who bomb without regard, and very much seem to target civilians and civilian objects in unoccupied Ukraine, who has a history of targeting protected objects in Syria, who mined a Dam, and potentially destroyed it. we have Ukraine, where the city of Kherson looked really well despite occupation, and now looks really unwell after Russian bombardment, that allows NGO and UN access to their controlled areas, that actually makes the attempt to follow principles of IHL…. personally, if I was a NGO like HRW, I would preface every statement on the conflict with big flaming sentences that demand Russia stop using cluster munitions, allow UN access to occupied zones, etc and then urge ukraine to be careful of deployment of cluster munitions, and strictly manage their use so that post war clean up can occur. Why? Cause I have a goddamn brain, by every freaking objective measure, Russia as a party to the conflict, has illustrated little regard for IHL and Ukraine has given much regard in comparison. It’s like Rwanda in a small sense, this need for neutrality, for not taking sides, the moral ground was ceded by Russia a long time ago prior to 2022, and the international community will face its failure soon enough. it’s one thing for the ICRC to be neutral, but for NGOs like HRW, no excuse, you see the reports, hell you make the damn reports, Russian crimes in Ukraine are extensive, widespread, and unrelenting, when people rely on your expertise, and you are saying both sides are using cluster munitions and both sides are wrong, damn you, no both sides are not wrong, Russia is wrong, Russia is the aggressor, Russia is the genocidal actor, Russia is the one running over civilians, Russia is the only destroying dams and shooting rescuers and treating civilians like combatants. it’s frankly appalling, and in the same vein as international organizations urging a ceasefire and frozen line in the middle of the Rwandan Genocide and no international force to stop the genocide, no the two sides are not the same. if you stop the advance of the RPF and fail to police the government controlled areas of Rwanda, you are letting the genocide go unchecked and unchallenged. This is inexcusable. This was inexcusable. And NGOs are failing still since then. we know what happens if we leave parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia. In a few years, the men of that occupied zone get turned into meat shields for the next invasion of unoccupied Ukraine.

Another factor, Ukraine has been asking for long range missiles, if one compares the escalation ladder, cluster munitions are the safe pick, and I bet that the attack on apartment blocks in Lviv might potentially have garnered some PR cover in the same tradition as prior shipments of new aid. Certainly European qualms can be assuged by the reminders of Russian terror on civilians.

Good point.

I dunno if he's a idiot or smart enough to realize he's getting killed in Belarus sooner or later and it's best not to take the deal and beg for Putin to forgive him and Wagner.

Can't remember if posted or not. Posting again a thread from General Hertling, omitted a few tweets from the quote. If the U.S sends only the 1% dud rate cluster munitions, that would be the best thing possible.

I've seen videos of medical and emergency personnel prepping to deal with nuclear incidents from Ukraine, so thats covered seemingly. I am noting that if a incident were to occur, its likely that it wouldn't become immediately cross-border issue, therefore, we shouldn't be so gib to Ukraine urging Western priority and focus on preventing a disaster at ZNPP. And like I pointed out, it needs not enter a escalation ladder, things like more sanctions threatened, urging a consensus for a demilitarized zone at ZNPP under UN auspices, empowerment of the IAEA to gain full access to the entire plant, etc, these are entirely reasonable and non-esculatory actions that wouldn't risk nuclear bombs hitting Washington or some such.

imo, if ZNPP is unlikely to cause a widespread cloud or beyond the borders of Ukraine, then i would say Russia is more likely to undertake faking attacks on it by Ukraine.

IAEA press release, part most important quoted below. So far they only have partial access to certain areas. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-171-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Let's assume the Russians littered the dam with explosives but a idiot accidentally set it off too early instead of doing it during a Ukrainian offensive. Same principle probably applies here, sure Russia isn't blasting the plant now, but you do need to prep it. It would be nice for the IAEA to be given the ability to inspect all of the ZNPP, or a demilitarized zone with neutral peacekeepers under UN mandate. Imo, a western push for neutral peacekeepers/demilitarized zone on the site of ZNPP would be a good way of illustrating both care for the safety of the plant and Ukraine and opposing Russia.

Not particularly relevant, the political value of happier farmers means little to Democrats largely. Certainly not enough to outweigh the consumer pain of higher food pricing and inflation.

Just a small reminder, this is Ukrainian blood, Ukrainian land, Ukrainian water, Ukrainian food, Ukrainian people who are arguably at most risk from nuclear escalation in Ukraine, and not even Russian civilians need be concerned about Ukraine in terms of death or risk of life, and I definitely think there are major rungs of escalation that may result in damage only occurring in Ukraine, nuclear included. There is a lot that the West can do, that precludes it from troops on the ground, or airstrikes or whatnot, certainly the dam destruction seemed to have barely caught a blip in the West, a lot more pressure should be brought to bare on ZNPP incidents occurring, including more neutral personnel, more involvement by neutral states, definitely western pressure on Russia needs to include more international neutral sorta pushing for ZNPP to be monitored, the dam had to my knowledge, no direct repercussions on Russia, in terms of sanctions, equipment to Ukraine, or some semblance of urgency. There is definitely a downside to the West retaining the right of first reply in escalation, and that usually is some sort of mass civilian loss of life has to occur in Ukraine before the West gets up and touts aid to it.

True, i believe the Turkish Navy is guarding the civilian ships? Or at least mine sweeping in certain areas?

Sanctions are great…..more weapons to Ukraine would be best. Mind you, it’s hard monitoring the transfer of technology when a lot of it is low cost, mass produced chips. The same reality that allows cheap drones bombing more expensive hardware is the same that drives ease of access for Russia to get components. Give more long range missiles to Ukraine, so it can disrupt production and supply.

Globalized economy. The withdrawal of Russian exports, oil or otherwise, will damage the poorest and weakest economies around the world, causing rising food and energy prices, that will hit the west, both its citizens and thru increasing global instability. Not to mention collapse of the Black Sea Grain initiative, and loss of Ukrainian grain exports worldwide. Russia would undoubtedly stop that if sanctions increase. have statements to back that up?

if I were Ukraine, I would ask for long range missiles and cluster munitions and let them think we compromised by being one or the other. Interesting confidence if the WP is to be believed. there are other considerations to worry about, the destruction of the dam and a weak response by the West, indicates that Russia is gaining terror escalation potential. A incident at the ZNPP would be the same. The utter lack of Russian general public self reflection I think may well mirror a future where Ukraine is bombarded from Russia with little opposition from the Russian people. And sure, while Ukraine can terrorize the Russian population, I think we can all agree that it’s unlikely that Ukraine will advance into Russia, or strike terror into the civilian population. I’ll be honest, I’ve not understood the obsession with losing Manchuria and Korea for Japan, that would cause them to surrender. I mean, they were preparing suicide waves of civilians. What about Manchuria more than the mass bombings of Japanese cities urged them to surrender?