Centurian52

Also this. ISW has repeatedly assessed that Putin will probably never relinquish his maximalist goals for Ukraine. We can never change his mind. We have to force Russia out of Ukraine, we cannot negotiate Russia out of Ukraine.

Also this. ISW has repeatedly assessed that Putin will probably never relinquish his maximalist goals for Ukraine. We can never change his mind. We have to force Russia out of Ukraine, we cannot negotiate Russia out of Ukraine.

This makes the mistake of assuming that there is a single decisionmaker somewhere who could cut off the supply of all weapons. But there isn't. You would have to get every single western country to agree to not send any more weapons (good luck convincing Poland, for example, to stop sending weapons). No one country, even the United States, has the power to force Kyiv to accept any peace deal that they don't want to accept. 

I think there should be some conditions placed on Russia, or whatever we call the country that Moscow is at the heart of at the end of all this. Them ending hostilities and leaving all Ukrainian territory is all well and good. But there are still war crimes that need to be addressed. Sanctions should not be lifted until Moscow agrees to cooperate in investigating suspected war criminals, arresting and prosecuting known war criminals, and returns forcibly deported Ukrainian children. If they refuse, then we should have no qualms about permanently shutting Moscow out of the international community.

The present Russian regime is a regime with which no decent person can do business with.

This makes the mistake of assuming that there is a single decisionmaker somewhere who could cut off the supply of all weapons. But there isn't. You would have to get every single western country to agree to not send any more weapons (good luck convincing Poland, for example, to stop sending weapons). No one country, even the United States, has the power to force Kyiv to accept any peace deal that they don't want to accept. 

Speaking of cracks, I just remembered a video released by Polymatter a couple weeks ago about the importance of pensions to Putin's hold on power.
Pensions which require the very money which is being rapidly drained by the war. It really makes me wonder what happens to Putin when that money runs out.

This makes the mistake of assuming that there is a single decisionmaker somewhere who could cut off the supply of all weapons. But there isn't. You would have to get every single western country to agree to not send any more weapons (good luck convincing Poland, for example, to stop sending weapons). No one country, even the United States, has the power to force Kyiv to accept any peace deal that they don't want to accept. 

Video reportedly from March:
 

Then it nearly time.   The hall is rented.  The band is engaged.   Now its time to see if the russians can dance.
Or in other words....
Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War!

I don't like disagreeing w Beleg because I know I will lose 🤪, but I just want to clarify my point.
Yes, he was a commie. And hitler a fascist.  But I am saying what they really were were sociopathic narcissistic megalomaniacs that happened to be commie or fascist.  Doesn't mean they couldn't also believe in commie or fascist ideology.  I am saying the commie/fascist thing didn't matter so much.  Especially considering they both were the same murderous monsters despite having 'opposite' views.  Is Putin a fascist?   A mob boss?  A nuevo-soviet commie?  Does it matter? -- what matters is that he's a murderous megalomaniac.

I wonder if this strategy might backfire. I don't think there is any possibility of a soft landing for Russia. But the longer this war lasts, the more casualties Russia takes, the more Russian equipment is destroyed, the longer sanctions remain in full effect, the more time other countries have to adapt to new trade relationships that exclude Russia altogether, the harder the landing will be for Russia.

I don't pretend to have any idea how Ukraine will conduct their offensive. But I'm beginning to form a picture of just how ill-prepared Russia is to receive it. ISW's April 23 report suggests that all, or nearly all, Russian units are committed to the frontline. That means they have no reserves. Apparently they have been seriously demechanized, and many units may be relegated to moving on foot. They are short on both personnel and equipment. Their units are fragmented and staffed by undertrained personnel. They haven't demonstrated an ability to coordinate large multi-brigade maneuvers in months.
It all adds up to a really dire situation for the Russians. Basically, I don't think they have the strength to hold their outer-crust of defenses, I don't think they have the level of multi-unit coordinated to give ground in a controlled manner, they don't appear to have the reserves to counter a breakthrough, and if they try to counter a breakthrough by stripping units from other fronts they are likely to open themselves up to opportunistic offensives on those other fronts, such as what happened at Kharkiv. I really don't want to overhype the Ukrainian offensive, because I know the more we drum up expectations the more likely Ukraine is to fall short of those expectations. But this really looks like a recipe for a total collapse of the Russian frontline.
Russia has been reduced to a static army, and I believe Ukraine intends to make a return to maneuver warfare. Historically, static armies are pretty helpless in the face of maneuver warfare.

I'm starting to think the CM AI is pretty realistic when it is controlling Soviet, Syrian, or Russian forces.

I'm starting to think the CM AI is pretty realistic when it is controlling Soviet, Syrian, or Russian forces.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/silence-along-ukraine-s-southern-front-fuels-speculation-over-counteroffensive/ar-AA1ahgPt?cvid=e625628145254f4ca28f7db724df70dd&ei=40
This is also as decisive a moment for Kyiv. NATO has been uncharacteristically united and bold in its support and arming of Ukraine. This sort of clarity of purpose is an outlier in Western democracies, and one that elections, economic variables, and other distractions may dilute in the year ahead. Ukraine cannot count on this level of support this time next year, whatever the press releases today say.
The Ukrainians face an enemy weaker than it has been for months, with the Russians even sending wounded convicts back to fight on the frontline, according to accounts from convict recruits.
Kyiv’s forces have better weaponry and training from NATO than ever before. And they surely have good, real-time information from their Western allies to pry open any advantage.
And the silence that we see now – the near total absence of TikToks or commentary from the Zaporizhzhia front line – may be the clearest indicator yet that this vital step is afoot
It has been quiet. There must be a tremendous chess game being played out behind the scenes. Love to be a fly on the wall in those planning meetings. Air temperature seems OK in that sector, while it must be still a little wet. 

One hundred percent agreement. Losing fast is in the best interest of virtually every single Russian outside of the MOD building, and the Kremlin.

I wonder if this strategy might backfire. I don't think there is any possibility of a soft landing for Russia. But the longer this war lasts, the more casualties Russia takes, the more Russian equipment is destroyed, the longer sanctions remain in full effect, the more time other countries have to adapt to new trade relationships that exclude Russia altogether, the harder the landing will be for Russia.

The idea that there is such a thing as a "nation", in the sense of a culturally (or worse, racially) homogeneous group with a well defined territory, needs to just die already. What proportion of a population in a given region identifies as what particular nationality is completely irrelevant. You will never have borders that closely align to regional national identities, because people move around and mix together. Even if you do get the borders just right, so that people with one nationality are all inside one country, and the people who identify as other nationalities are all in other countries, the borders will be obsolete within a century. People will migrate and bleed over the borders, so a century later the people in the border regions will no longer have a nationality that matches their country. And because people have this completely fallacious idea that countries should govern particular nationalities, and the only way to forcibly change the borders is by going to war, you get endless wars over territorial disputes.
The only solution is to recognize that nationality does not matter. The idea that nationality matters is a stupid and archaic idea that has no place in the 21st century. Countries do not exist to govern one and only one nationality, and there is absolutely no reason for their borders to match national settlement patterns (for that matter, I don't believe that any country has any right to insist that every member of its population conforms to the culture of the majority nationality). Ukraine has a right to retake Crimea because Russia took it from Ukraine by force, and that cannot be allowed to stand. Russia had absolutely no right to take Crimea in 2014, and that injustice will be reversed.
Edit: Another reason why Ukraine really needs to retake Crimea is that it is essential for Ukraine's future security. The opening months of the war demonstrated just how vulnerable that southern flank is, and closing it off would drastically reduce Russia's future offensive options.

My favorite Polish Youtube geopolitical analyst, has released a trilogy of videos dealing with the potential collapse of the Russian Federation. Nothing that has not been discussed here over the last 2000+ pages, but I'm a visual learner and I enjoy his presentation style.
By GTBT's own admission he got a lot of his information for these videos from a book written by a British political scientist named Janusz Bugajski, who wrote the book Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. A book you can download for free here.
 

Drone unit Code 9.2 of 3rd mech.battalion of 92nd mech. brigade eliminates Russians with high precise bombing during the fight for position near Khromove
Soldiers of 92nd brigade claen up probably the same trench 
 

Looks good. I have a feeling that this is what the Bradley models will look like in CMSU.

The idea that there is such a thing as a "nation", in the sense of a culturally (or worse, racially) homogeneous group with a well defined territory, needs to just die already. What proportion of a population in a given region identifies as what particular nationality is completely irrelevant. You will never have borders that closely align to regional national identities, because people move around and mix together. Even if you do get the borders just right, so that people with one nationality are all inside one country, and the people who identify as other nationalities are all in other countries, the borders will be obsolete within a century. People will migrate and bleed over the borders, so a century later the people in the border regions will no longer have a nationality that matches their country. And because people have this completely fallacious idea that countries should govern particular nationalities, and the only way to forcibly change the borders is by going to war, you get endless wars over territorial disputes.
The only solution is to recognize that nationality does not matter. The idea that nationality matters is a stupid and archaic idea that has no place in the 21st century. Countries do not exist to govern one and only one nationality, and there is absolutely no reason for their borders to match national settlement patterns (for that matter, I don't believe that any country has any right to insist that every member of its population conforms to the culture of the majority nationality). Ukraine has a right to retake Crimea because Russia took it from Ukraine by force, and that cannot be allowed to stand. Russia had absolutely no right to take Crimea in 2014, and that injustice will be reversed.
Edit: Another reason why Ukraine really needs to retake Crimea is that it is essential for Ukraine's future security. The opening months of the war demonstrated just how vulnerable that southern flank is, and closing it off would drastically reduce Russia's future offensive options.

Now the problem with people constantly bringing writings of folks like Jefferson, Adams, Paine etc. is that they are only valid within American context. As much as I am fascinated by your Founding Fathers and their debates, please understand that around the globe they are not considered particulary relevant or inspiring political thinkers, nor is Declaration of Independence; at least not to the extent they are for Americans. Simply as that- American model of democracy, citizenship and political well-being is limited to US. Don't get me wrong, it's cool its there, USA is land of liberty, shield of freedom etc, but very few political entities (even most democratic ones) outside States were ever directly modelled by this system. Comparing it to political mentallity in Russia is material for a dark comedy in itself.
If you really need to support your claims, at least quote Monteskieu, Locke, Rousseau or Hegel- they did impacted political framework around the world in much more profound way. But of course none of them have anything to do with situation in Crimea either; it was simple, plain thugish land-grab by former imperial power modo mongolico.
Now extending your point, why not even Confederate States of America are  a thing anymore? They seem to enjoy rather popular acceptance. Except for slaves, of course.

Looking back I can see why it looks like I was saying that. The intended function of my opening sentence was actually to agree with you, not to contradict you. Its intended meaning would have been retained if it were replaced with the sentence "Yeah, that makes sense".