Jump to content

Bearstronaut

Members
  • Posts

    277
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    He is a STATE senator, every U.S. state has its own mini Senate and House that comprise the legislative branch of the state government. He, barely, mentions that he is in the Virginia Senate. There are very approximately 2000 state senators if you add up the fifty states, and they have zero say in foreign policy. That is If he is a real person, and I honestly can't be bothered to check. Some parts of rural Virginia voted for Trump by 70 or eighty percent even as the state as whole went for Biden. I grew up in an adjacent part of Tennessee, that did the same thing. The average elected official there these days seems to think 1857 was great year. It STILL 1857 in Russia, and some of them are wacky enough to think that is a good thing. Apologies Steve is this is to much politics.
    Heck, even the Confederacy never resorted to forcing troops to fight with guns at their backs.
  2. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sure he'd have no problem convincing the Poles at the very least.
  3. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Sekai in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sure he'd have no problem convincing the Poles at the very least.
  4. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    She's such an embarrassment. Generally we don't care too much about the EU elections, so it's a low threshold for any complete gobsh*te to get elected, by fellow traveller dipsh*ts. 
  5. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sure he'd have no problem convincing the Poles at the very least.
  6. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If and when Russia becomes a non-aggressive and democratic state I will start discouraging people from undermining Russia. I'm not gonna hold my breath though.
  7. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Are we sure we observe the same genocidal, simple war of conquest? If you are so afraid of "undermining" Russia, here is you adress of complains and source of all of the fuss : http://www.en.kremlin.ru/contacts
    You are not rightfully criticizning, you get whacked by arguments and are now doing another virtue signalling, while clearly parroting Putin propaganda matrix you saw on some Russian forum. And you don't even get that- that's btw. how propaganda of this type works. Its victims are always people who think of themselves as freethinkers, outside constraints of mainstream media, but who are in fact mentally not equipped to properly build their own worldview that would be anchored in both political realism and some basic ethics. Ukrainians and "American overlords" guilty of Larissa rail accident, USA building bases to "force" others to watch Micky Mouse, poor bombed Nazis in WWII etc. These are the same, unmistakeable symptoms of reducing everything toward symetristic bull*hit.
    I am more and more inclined to believe that if world in 1939 would have internet and contrarian keyboard warriors, whole Europe would be foocked royally, divided between Brown and Red totalitarian empires up to this day, doing whatever they want.
    Ok, I have enough of this, so where was this mute button...
  8. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Geographically it's smaller than Feb 2022. But it might actually be larger going by troop numbers. I don't know exactly how many troops are involved in this operation, but we know that both armies are larger than they were at the start of this war. The Ukrainian army in particular is much larger than it was at the start of this war. The Russian invasion in Feb 2022 supposedly involved 150k-190k Russian troops against about 120k Ukrainian regulars + 100k Ukrainian TD. Currently I understand that the Russian army in Ukraine is about 300k while the Ukrainian army had ballooned to over 700k the last time I got any numbers for them a few months ago (no idea how large the Ukrainian army is right now). So the question of whether this operation is larger than Russia's Feb 2022 operation comes down to what proportion of the Ukrainian Army is participating in the offensive. Considering how many places they are attacking, I'm guessing it's a decent chunk.
  9. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Homo_Ferricus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wouldn't this be the second largest combat operation in Europe since WW2? The first being the Russian invasion of February 2022.
  10. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes, UKR are aggressively destroying RU artillery - NATO superiority in gun quality and CB radar/equipment is proving decisive. But it is not important because based on RU MOD description nothing of sort is happening and RU are waging a successful defensive battle. 
  11. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Generally, the same. There is one rumor though that RU situation at south is way worse than everybody thinks. But I am waiting for confirmation on that. 
  12. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The situation is confusing; all sides are keeping quiet about what is going on, with the exception of Ru Nat reporters, who I believe are being deceived by RU the command.  I believe the RU situation is bad, but they are sort of holding the line by hurling reserves at UKR (first local reserves, now main) and because UKR are not advancing in real force. 
     
    According to UKR, their pushes (including the fight with Bradly and Leo) frightened RU low-level commanders. They became anxious and began calling RU higher command, asking for any support they could get. The RU upper command became spoked and activated hidden arty batteries exposing them to UKR counter-battery fire.
     
    RU aviation. UKR AA moves at a slow rate as well.
     
    I am always surprised by the amount of RU copium from you. Let's look at what RU side does:
    Russian defence chiefs have been mocked for claiming to destroy a German-supplied lethal Leopard 2 tank - when in fact they had blown up tractors in Ukrainian fields.
    Let it sink in: RU MOD officially lies in the most blatant way possible (wheels are clearly visible). Nonetheless, you complain that we demand all RU claims to be validated, at the very least, with photos.
    FFS, I do not accept even photos unless they are really clear. Recently RU destroyed another Patriot and even displayed a hazy photo of the Patriot launcher. Except it wasn't a Patriot launcher, but an IRIS-T launcher. They did not destroy it, they hit and damaged the IRIS radar (AFAIK it is fixed and working again)
    Finally, shortly before the Bradly-Leopard fight, RU released hazy photographs of a destroied Leopard. Except it's not Leopard, but who knows what (maybe an AMX-10) and it might not be even destroyed.
    Never accept RU word. Rarely accept RU photos. Demand full video. End of story. 
     
    RU are experiencing severe shortage of shells (and ATGMs). RU arty is systematically destroyed by UKR CB becasue RU suck at CB (they cannot make proper CB radar). Capt is right - RU have issues with arty. End of story. 
     
    Why probably? Right now, RU is sucking at several Directions, including Bakhmut and RU border territories (RDK raids). Worse, the primary plan they had for a defensive battle in the southern direction has collapsed since UKR are not advancing as RU expected. 
     
    Ignorance is bliss, I guess. Back to reality: UKR emulated a big attack by performing recon in force (by platoons or 1-2 companies at most). For the cost of a few vehicles (a couple dozen Bradly/APCs and several Leopards at most), UKR managed to utterly confuse RU command and compel it to:
    reveal the bulk of concealed artillery reserved for big UKR offensive begin deploying the majority of reserves (and now committing them to combat) commit aviation to battle I do not really understand all the fuss about UKR losses. 
  13. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would say that vatnik war propaganda is getting increasingly bizarre.
    But the truth is between Ukrainians creating super soldiers in biolabs and using witchcraft, vatnik war propaganda was bizarre from the very beginning.
  14. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm imagining a drone that drops a litre of vodka, followed by a grenade when Russian troops scramble out to get it.
  15. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    General Staff claimed Ka-52 was shot down on Zaporizhzhia front.
  16. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would suspect it's some kind of culturally embedded fatalism rather than fanaticism.
  17. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Repelling of Russian armored counter-attack somewhere on southern direction
     
  18. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Bil Hardenberger in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The losses are concerning, but a lot of this Ukraine counter-attack force is green and they are still learning, mistakes are going to be made. I would only start to really get concerned if this trend continues.. but I have faith that they are smart enough to make the adjustments required in order to succeed.
    This is a very small part of the entire force in action and is in a very concentrated area... I would suggest standing by and letting things play out; I suspect a lot of good news is going to come our way very soon.
  19. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Monty's Mighty Moustache in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You are reacting to fragmentary reports of relatively minor losses. Did you seriously expect the ZSU to break through a prepared defense belt in all locations without losses in a day or so? If ZSU units are still struggling in the first line of fortifications this time next week I would start to get worried but for now just chill and realize you aren't seeing the full picture. 
  20. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That capability exists.  Not going to solve this problem unless you had a fleet of them.  If you did you could likely overwhelm the defences on the minefield and then crash it in multiple places.
    People are wondering what the hell the UA is doing?  Exactly what we trained them to do, this is a western mechanized breach.  Now explosive breaching would be a better solution but I am not sure UA has that.  And if they do they are likely saving it for the main assault.
  21. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well that is what a minefield breaching operation going very wrong looks like.  
    Before everyone freaks out the vehicles that kept pushing are supposed to do that.  Backing out is just asking to die and impossible to do in column, he saw the RA prove this over and over again.  If your breaching vehicle takes a hit - and that appears to be the Leo, you keep pushing even if it means taking casualties.  We would do the exact same thing.  I mean what are the options?  Stop, wait for help or talk things over while the enemy kills you inside a minefield?  Back out along the one cleared path…while the enemy kills you in a minefield?  Nope you push.  Difference between the UA and the RA is that the Leo has a mine plow on the front (which is odd, that is the deep end of clearance, they should be sticking with rollers).  The RA was just straight pushing.
    What is interesting is again the lack of any real RA artillery.  No big craters or impact marks.  Vehicles look like they took mobility hits (except that one) and the crews bailed and ran.  When we do these ops each Combat Team would do two breaches and accept that one is going to die.  This is the video from the failed one.
    We said this from the start - western kit does not come with magic wizard shields that allow them to float above the ground and drive their enemies before them.  They blow up just the same as Russian kit.  We were always going to see this, and we will likely see more.  Russian info sphere is going to push out any and all of these that it can.  So buckle in and put your helmets on.
  22. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to keas66 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    These sorts of reactions are delusional - Just stop it guys - The only thing that matters is the  operational level goals at this point . We should not be freaking out about tactical losses - these are guaranteed to happen .  I mean seriously - please restraint the doom and gloom posts and  just thanks your lucky stars you are not at the leading edge of these attacks . The Ukrainians are  the ones shedding their blood to retake their own territory back from the orcs  . Give them some room please ! .
  23. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mike Flynn
  24. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mike Flynn
  25. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I did that in HoI4. It's doable. They probably stole my savegame.
×
×
  • Create New...