CHEqTRO

To be honest I feel this way about most of the posts in here since last night. Lots of arguing, little new info or new analysis. 
edit: dont waste your reactions on me, Haiduk will be back soon. 

No rights are infringed at all. The article is a pure strawman. Marcus Felsner is managing the performances of the conductor over europe. So the contractual relationship between the two usually is on private law and revenue share basis per lifeperformance.

Sigh. Ukraine its a country wich has made its intention to join both the EU and NATO clear, and this desire has been generally aknowledged by the west.
A direct invasion against a sovereign country form another which has decided that it doenst deserve such sovereignity, is a threat to the mantainment of international law which mantains the current western dominated world order. All previous war till now could have been sold as civil wars for the most part, and the actual state agains state wars were extremily rare and outside of Europe.
Ukraine economy its entwined with the economies of Germany and Poland, and hence the EU. Its lost to a power, who has for the last 15 years tried to destroy the EU from inside, has comitted political murder on our soil, and blackmails us with gas would be a security threat to those countries.
The security situation of Rumania, Poland and the Baltic states deteriorates drastically if Ukraine falls, all of them EU countries and as such, the EU and NATO in general.
This is just to sum up, so yeah, first of all, Ukraine IS part of the west. Second of all, Putin had already declared war to our countries a long time ago. The difference is that European politicians can no longer hide from that fact. Hence the change in police from Germany and France
Also, yeah, I do not know if you have read my post as well, but I will repeat myself, I do not see why Putin cronies, who have sustented in Power, and have indirectly or directly allowed this war to happen, should have any sympaty, really; and I do not see how that is thinking that russians deserve no rights

This is fake. There is no such statement of Vitaly Klychko

2nd Nagorno Kharabakh War vibes

Precisely. Nobody in it's right mind want to risk a nuclear war, but we have no choice. Putin puts us with our backs to the wall. Whether we see it or not, he has us cornered and we must fight our way out. This isn't just about Kiev or Charkov, but also about Riga, Warsaw, Berlin, Amsterdam and Paris.

As @Aragorn2002 puts it, if we succumb towards nuclear blackmail once, there is no stopping there. Where is the line drawn of wether a country is worth saving and which country is not? Is worth to risk war for Poland or Rumania as well?
The disconnect of SWIFT is not plainly punitive, is done in order to protect the countries in the eastern flank of NATO, to counterbalance the shift in the balance of power that the conquest of Ukraine by Russia would entail. So if Ukraine falls, its either start doing that, or see how the eastern NATO flank desintagrates with the passing of time, either by economic or military pressure, or direct kinetic action.
So in fact yes, we should risk war for Ukraine, as its fall without repercusion would be disastrous to the EU and the eastern NATO countries, and as such, NATO and US defense strategy as a whole.

During the battle for Hostomel airfield this beauty was lost  

As @Aragorn2002 puts it, if we succumb towards nuclear blackmail once, there is no stopping there. Where is the line drawn of wether a country is worth saving and which country is not? Is worth to risk war for Poland or Rumania as well?
The disconnect of SWIFT is not plainly punitive, is done in order to protect the countries in the eastern flank of NATO, to counterbalance the shift in the balance of power that the conquest of Ukraine by Russia would entail. So if Ukraine falls, its either start doing that, or see how the eastern NATO flank desintagrates with the passing of time, either by economic or military pressure, or direct kinetic action.
So in fact yes, we should risk war for Ukraine, as its fall without repercusion would be disastrous to the EU and the eastern NATO countries, and as such, NATO and US defense strategy as a whole.

There is no way Russia gets out of this without the territory of the Donbass republics. It has little strategic value, but good luck selling to its population that they won if they cant even get that. I think Zelensky understands that, and considering the alternative is the continuation of a war that could result in the end of the Ukranian state and freedom, its a small concession to give. The Finns, despite winning their war against the soviets, and all their sacrifices; also had to give up the city of Vïpurii, despite being its second largest city at the time.
Still, in my opinion, this peace talks are a russian psyops, or them trying to win legitimacy/time, and do not really have an honest intention of achieving peace in the current conditions, due to what I explained before, as this deal would still be a big strategic defeat. However, the sanctions, strategic in nature, are going to have severe consecuencies for Rusia, and as of now, they dont even have Ukraine to counterbalace them. So the threat of failing into an escalation spiral is there.
If there is rationality still left in the Russian high command, they will cut up their losses,they will try a last push towards Kiev in order to get more leverage, and then they will take this deal, and so will Ukraine most likely. If not, well, this is going to keep spiriling into a bigger war.

Also, the first T90 I have seen till now, abandoned near Sumy:
 

An interesting thread about Russian poor performace and the reasons behind it:

The invasion, by the way, its going poorly. The russian are conducting an offensive as if this was still the 1980s. Very poor planing (The Hostomel airdrop was esentially a disaster), poor logistical support, they have failed to achieve air superiority, Ukranian armored formations are still able to freely manouver etc. Like I said yesterday, either we have severily overstimated russian capabilities, or they are holding back for something
Also, there was a lot of propaganda regarding that the Ukranians were ethnically cleansing the russian speaking population, and that they would recive the Russian Army as heroes. That is not what we have been seeing:
 

An interesting thread about Russian poor performace and the reasons behind it:

An interesting thread about Russian poor performace and the reasons behind it:

And as such, its the Ukranians who will make the decision to keep on fighting or not. Not us. As of now, they seem to have decided to defend their homes from foreign occupation. Its our responsability then, as their suppossed allies, to support them

Turkey does not border Russia. On the other hand, Russia unilateraly scrapped the INF treaty and positioned Nuclear weapon in Kaliningrad capabale of striking within minutes all of Europe, and in the border or a NATO country. If the russian want security guaranties, lets talk also some for us Europeans 🙄

Ah, so we want to talk “rational”, which is kinda strange given the whole lead up to this mess but, ok I will bite.
There are two types of rationality at work here, objective or high level, and subjective or relative.  High level, the rational is that at least as far as anyone can tell the Russian public are not entirely onside with this whole dance.  So if one were to bleed Russian forces enough they might buckle, much similar to how Afghanistan in the 80s went but accelerated.  The cost will be high but if Russia will collapses (or somebody with real power in the back room “retires” Putin) then the pay off is Ukraine remains free, gets all sorts of reconstruction aid from the west and makes the world record for admission into NATO, while Russians burn their own cities.
At a low level,  Russians just blew up my home and killed my friends and family, I am not “rational”, I am furious and willing to take as many Russian soldiers with me cause they are likely to kill me anyway [aside: are we really applauding the Russian military for not committing war crimes? Man, that is a low bar].
In the end it is a Ukrainian decision and all we can do is support them as much as possible -in case there was any doubt the west has picked a side here-, and more than we did in the run up to this mess.

My choice is that honor and freedom is more important than life itself. The Ukrainians with their long painful past with Moscow understand that better than you and I. Losing this war means that the Ukrainians will NEVER be free anymore and share the same miserable fate as those millions and millions of White Russians and Russians, who want to have a normal life, but have to live under the boot.
My choice is to send the Ukrainians all we can muster, including troops, planes, weapons, supplies, tanks and artillery. If that means war, so be it. That's only a question of time anyway.
My choice would be to re-arm NATO as quickly as possible and prepare for another world war. If Putin and his gang want war, they shall have it. We all know that a weak response is only encouraging dictators. This won't stop here. Europe is under attack. Ukrainians are Europeans. By origin and by choice. And we let them get crushed by a bunch of criminals.
My choice is to never accept this kind of crimes. I'm sick to the stomach to be forced to see all this. I'm sick to the stomach of cyber attacks, threats, poisoned people and destroyed lives. Enough is enough. Next year we're watching the invasion of Taiwan and you will no doubt advise them to stop resisting to 'save'  their cities. But that's not how it works in life. Life is about freedom. Nothing else matters if they try to take that away from you. Big words, I know, but better than all the 'moderate wisdom'. In the West every second word we use is 'freedom' or 'human rights'. Well, let's show that we are prepared to pay the price for that.

And as such, its the Ukranians who will make the decision to keep on fighting or not. Not us. As of now, they seem to have decided to defend their homes from foreign occupation. Its our responsability then, as their suppossed allies, to support them

No. It means that the Russian soldiery, right now, aren't instructed to suppress civilian resistance in a brutal manner, but to remain civil. There is no working with Russia-in-the-person-of-Putin. Or, at least, there's no way anyone can see to work with him, as he's being steadfastly unreasonable (and has painted himself into a corner, I think, with some assistance from the US intelligence publicity, in the shape of removing any fig leaf he might have wanted to hide behind).
Of course, that attitude of the soldiery will probably change, once they start hurting, and they won't take it out on the criminals that sent them to do their dirty work, will they?
There might be a difference between occupation and the installation of a puppet government supported by Russian "security assistance", using the model so ruthlessly applied by Lukashenko to the north, but there might not, too. And that assessment is for the Ukrainians to make, not us. And the fact remains that at the moment, for all the restraint being shown by the Russian forces in country, there isn't even a "negotiating position" set out by the Russians for the Ukrainians to surrender under, let alone something to dicker against.
 
Aye, that's not something I'm unaware of. And things change as years pass. The Russians were party to the occupation of Poland in the beginning, and came back a few years later.
 
I'd have to ask a Pole who lived through it all, but I get the impression that, while being in the Soviet sphere of influence for half a century or so might not have been ideal, it left more of Poland to find its liberty than being under the Third Reich for that long would've.
 

Some words about tactic of Russians. They use a tactic of "small raid groups" somewhat similar to Mongols in Mediaeval times. Their BTGs are moving to own goals initially in composition of company groups , but after they approach to own objectives, they disperse on small combat groups - usually 1-2 platoons with reinforcement and make probes on own front in own sector. In this way they search weak points in our defense. If they find a hole or they can overrun our defense - other part of combat group join itself again and continue own advance.  
During seizing of towns and cities they use in mass small diversion groups, which sneak to settlements as civilians or on the captured Ukrainian vehicles, wearing in Ukranian uniform. Among diversion groups not only militaries, but also police, SOBR and local pro-Russian elements, but the role of latter is mostly to paint special markers, leading to primary objectives with special UV-paint. 

120.000 Ukrainian refugees so far. Will perhaps rise to 4.000.000. Big Russian airborne operation going on near Kiev, which is targeted by Russian missiles.
I think the average Ukrainian would spit you in the face. 

So this
 
And this is, victim blaming.  An angle oppressors and abusers have used forever: “this is your fault for struggling”.  It is the little old lady’s fault for getting shot.
I am not sure what the Ukrainian’s should do they are a free people (for now) who are fighting and dying for that freedom.  I think Russia should stop because the loss of life is entirely on them right now.  I think Russia should pay for the damage it has caused and toss out its current government while it is at it and rejoin the international community.
But we are being all realistic and pragmatic. Ok, same answer.  Realistically this will devolve into a long running insurgency backed by western powers that will make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a grade school dance - so awkward but adorable.  This will likely create destabilizing pressure on Putins regime and instability in Russia itself.  So from a Russian point of view Ukraine rolling over and quitting is the only good option at this point.
And I for one sincerely hope they find a way to remain a free and democratic nation able to chart their own destiny.

Perhaps they consider the alternatives to be less palatable. "They" here, being the people of Ukraine, who, it seems are pretty invested in making their country unpalatable to the Russians. Perhaps they think that the people of Russia will find the prospect of their sons getting ground up in multiple urban battlefields for no good reason more unpalatable than accepting that force majeur isn't the best way to make friends and influence people.
It's just a little bit early to be speculating about "likely" outcomes. A week ago, many people thought an actual invasion was "unlilkely". The war (and it is a war, though I haven't heard anyone with a good idea of what Russias goals are; I'm sure they have some, but whether it's regime change or annexation remains unclear) two days in and it's certainly not the fait accompli that might have been expected in some quarters.
Perhaps, though I'm advocating nothing, merely suggesting reasons that Ukraine and Ukrainians might be disinclined to adopt supine capitulation as a method of resolving the conflict at hand.
That's a really good question, to which the Russian half is very difficult to determine. If Putin's goal is to make the defensive NATO alliance take a step back from its eastern borders, then he's doing the wrong things. The preposterous claims he's making for internal consumption don't constitute a negotiating position (and any cessation of hostilities will be a negotiation, even if one side has a distinct advantage; there's no realistic prospect that Ukraine will just give up, especially when they don't know what they'd get if they did).

I'm not Ukrainian, but at the moment, I reckon they'd settle for Russian troops just getting the hell out of their country. They're not likely ever to be in a position to demand reparations for the damage done to their country. They can look at Russia nowadays, see the way that Putin runs things, and reckon that even at the cost of thousands, it's worth attempting to emulate the success of the Muj in Afghanistan. It's not for me to judge where they draw the line. It's their country, and worth fighting for to exactly the extent that they consider it so, since they're the ones doing the dying.

It's just as easy to tell people to give up and accept the jackbooted heel of oppression from afar, as well, when you won't be under that heel.

Edited to add: France waited 4 years, Poland waited a similar time. It wouldn't be unreasonable for Ukraine to be thinking in those sort of timescales.