The_MonkeyKing

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761453249180168647.html
Ukraine faces a difficult period as Russia regains military momentum and Ukraine grapples with internal challenges.
Key Points:
Ukrainian Manpower Shortage: Political and military misalignments have delayed vital mobilization efforts. New troops likely won't be sufficiently trained and ready until late summer. Springtime Vulnerability: Russia is exploiting Ukraine's weakened state with multi-front offensives. Although Russian gains have been modest, they are prepared for high casualties and have more forces in reserve. External Aid Factors: Ukraine is reliant on external support, which has its own limitations and could be affected by future political events, such as the US elections. Worst-Case Scenario Focus: Urges a focus on worst-case scenarios for aid planning. He calls for a sense of urgency similar to that seen in early 2022.

I think we just found out the reason why according to leaks US is thinking about supplying longer range ATACMS. Iran did it first...

Seth G. Jones, Senior Vice President and Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, will be joined by Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS; Emily Harding, Director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program and Deputy Director of the International Security Program at CSIS; and the Honorable Michael Vickers, former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and CIA operations officer. 

I think we just found out the reason why according to leaks US is thinking about supplying longer range ATACMS. Iran did it first...

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
▪ artillery ammunition;
▪ hand grenades;
▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
▪ medical equipment;
▪ ambulances.
In addition, 
▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
▪ artillery ammunition;
▪ hand grenades;
▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
▪ medical equipment;
▪ ambulances.
In addition, 
▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
▪ artillery ammunition;
▪ hand grenades;
▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
▪ medical equipment;
▪ ambulances.
In addition, 
▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
▪ artillery ammunition;
▪ hand grenades;
▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
▪ medical equipment;
▪ ambulances.
In addition, 
▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.

5 "claimed"
But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power.

5 "claimed"
But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power.

They claim 6 total. But if the Russians shot one of their own Su-35s, that would be 5 by Ukraine.
 
However, Russian telegrammers are debating whether they might have shot down more of their own.

Usually they start to fall when somebody in AFU command takes risk of bringing Western AA launcher closer to frontlines for a few hours/days. It is Russian roulette on Ukrainian side too, though; I think in final days of Bakhmut battle Russians also started loosing planes out of a sudden, so perhaps it's tactics to scare off further advances or muscovite pilots simply overestimating their red margin of error. Perhaps Avdiivka bulge was too risky to put such priceless platform there, and now frontline flattened a little (on other side, ground given up in Avdiivka seems too small to make significant distance).

I would think they're helping to cover to the retreat, yeah.
Might also be the Sukhoi's are coming closer as their targets move away.

5 "claimed"
But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power.

Yeah, we shall see.
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/14/joe-biden-could-send-millions-of-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/?sh=539a38ba20c7

"The law caps annual transfers of so-called “excess defense articles” at a total value of $500 million a year. But the same law doesn’t dictate how much value the president assigns to a particular weapon. He in theory could price an item at zero dollars."
"Biden only rarely has used his EDA authority for Ukraine. And where he has used it, lately it’s been a part of complex “ring-trades” where the U.S. government gives excess weapons to third countries—Ecuador and Greece, to name two—then encourages those same countries directly or indirectly to give to Ukraine some of their own surplus weapons."
"Why Biden hasn’t already put in motion this plan is unclear. It’s possible—likely, even—he prefers to hold out for $60 billion in fresh funding, which gives him more options for buying, or even developing from scratch, a wide array of weapons for Ukraine.
But once Biden decides, as many other observers already have decided, that Russia-aligned Republicans never will approve more money for Ukraine, he could lean on his EDA authority—and speed millions of shells to Ukraine’s starving batteries."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/14/joe-biden-could-send-millions-of-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/?sh=539a38ba20c7

"The law caps annual transfers of so-called “excess defense articles” at a total value of $500 million a year. But the same law doesn’t dictate how much value the president assigns to a particular weapon. He in theory could price an item at zero dollars."
"Biden only rarely has used his EDA authority for Ukraine. And where he has used it, lately it’s been a part of complex “ring-trades” where the U.S. government gives excess weapons to third countries—Ecuador and Greece, to name two—then encourages those same countries directly or indirectly to give to Ukraine some of their own surplus weapons."
"Why Biden hasn’t already put in motion this plan is unclear. It’s possible—likely, even—he prefers to hold out for $60 billion in fresh funding, which gives him more options for buying, or even developing from scratch, a wide array of weapons for Ukraine.
But once Biden decides, as many other observers already have decided, that Russia-aligned Republicans never will approve more money for Ukraine, he could lean on his EDA authority—and speed millions of shells to Ukraine’s starving batteries."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/14/joe-biden-could-send-millions-of-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/?sh=539a38ba20c7

"The law caps annual transfers of so-called “excess defense articles” at a total value of $500 million a year. But the same law doesn’t dictate how much value the president assigns to a particular weapon. He in theory could price an item at zero dollars."
"Biden only rarely has used his EDA authority for Ukraine. And where he has used it, lately it’s been a part of complex “ring-trades” where the U.S. government gives excess weapons to third countries—Ecuador and Greece, to name two—then encourages those same countries directly or indirectly to give to Ukraine some of their own surplus weapons."
"Why Biden hasn’t already put in motion this plan is unclear. It’s possible—likely, even—he prefers to hold out for $60 billion in fresh funding, which gives him more options for buying, or even developing from scratch, a wide array of weapons for Ukraine.
But once Biden decides, as many other observers already have decided, that Russia-aligned Republicans never will approve more money for Ukraine, he could lean on his EDA authority—and speed millions of shells to Ukraine’s starving batteries."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/14/joe-biden-could-send-millions-of-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/?sh=539a38ba20c7

"The law caps annual transfers of so-called “excess defense articles” at a total value of $500 million a year. But the same law doesn’t dictate how much value the president assigns to a particular weapon. He in theory could price an item at zero dollars."
"Biden only rarely has used his EDA authority for Ukraine. And where he has used it, lately it’s been a part of complex “ring-trades” where the U.S. government gives excess weapons to third countries—Ecuador and Greece, to name two—then encourages those same countries directly or indirectly to give to Ukraine some of their own surplus weapons."
"Why Biden hasn’t already put in motion this plan is unclear. It’s possible—likely, even—he prefers to hold out for $60 billion in fresh funding, which gives him more options for buying, or even developing from scratch, a wide array of weapons for Ukraine.
But once Biden decides, as many other observers already have decided, that Russia-aligned Republicans never will approve more money for Ukraine, he could lean on his EDA authority—and speed millions of shells to Ukraine’s starving batteries."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/14/joe-biden-could-send-millions-of-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/?sh=539a38ba20c7

"The law caps annual transfers of so-called “excess defense articles” at a total value of $500 million a year. But the same law doesn’t dictate how much value the president assigns to a particular weapon. He in theory could price an item at zero dollars."
"Biden only rarely has used his EDA authority for Ukraine. And where he has used it, lately it’s been a part of complex “ring-trades” where the U.S. government gives excess weapons to third countries—Ecuador and Greece, to name two—then encourages those same countries directly or indirectly to give to Ukraine some of their own surplus weapons."
"Why Biden hasn’t already put in motion this plan is unclear. It’s possible—likely, even—he prefers to hold out for $60 billion in fresh funding, which gives him more options for buying, or even developing from scratch, a wide array of weapons for Ukraine.
But once Biden decides, as many other observers already have decided, that Russia-aligned Republicans never will approve more money for Ukraine, he could lean on his EDA authority—and speed millions of shells to Ukraine’s starving batteries."