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The_MonkeyKing

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  1. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.
     This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...
    "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."
    "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."
    "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  2. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.
     This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...
    "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."
    "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."
    "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  3. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah the West won't do anything. The dam non-reaction is a clear green light to Russia.
  4. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from kluge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia claiming an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Ukraine claiming the opposite
    I see this as a real possibility.
    Russia can cause a limited and/or slow-moving accident with enough uncertainty about the cause to give them cover This would again be one more huge expensive disaster for post-war Ukraine to deal with. For reference, the Three Mile Island cleanup is forecasted to cost 1.5 billion. That was just one reactor that didn't breach containment.  Then Russia would play to get an international intervention that would save the situation. This would require a local ceasefire with the current lines. This would not necessarily work out but still worth hoping for.  
  5. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Sekai in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia claiming an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Ukraine claiming the opposite
    I see this as a real possibility.
    Russia can cause a limited and/or slow-moving accident with enough uncertainty about the cause to give them cover This would again be one more huge expensive disaster for post-war Ukraine to deal with. For reference, the Three Mile Island cleanup is forecasted to cost 1.5 billion. That was just one reactor that didn't breach containment.  Then Russia would play to get an international intervention that would save the situation. This would require a local ceasefire with the current lines. This would not necessarily work out but still worth hoping for.  
  6. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia claiming an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Ukraine claiming the opposite
    I see this as a real possibility.
    Russia can cause a limited and/or slow-moving accident with enough uncertainty about the cause to give them cover This would again be one more huge expensive disaster for post-war Ukraine to deal with. For reference, the Three Mile Island cleanup is forecasted to cost 1.5 billion. That was just one reactor that didn't breach containment.  Then Russia would play to get an international intervention that would save the situation. This would require a local ceasefire with the current lines. This would not necessarily work out but still worth hoping for.  
  7. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is quite possible to regard this particular statement as a simple acknowledgement of the logistics and time lines involved, and utterly furious that it wasn't all started a year ago.
  8. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.
     This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...
    "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."
    "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."
    "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  9. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.
     This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...
    "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."
    "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."
    "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  10. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from kluge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.
     This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...
    "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."
    "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."
    "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  11. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.
     This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...
    "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."
    "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."
    "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  12. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.
     This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...
    "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."
    "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."
    "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  13. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is such a nothing burger. Comments were taken out of context. From a video interview by Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the military committee of NATO. So the guy is not even "the guy" to ask about this.
     This guy loosely quoting states that F-16 is such a big and slow undertaking it will likely come in time for the current offensive. Absolutely nothing controversial here...
    "The discussion on the fighters is an important one, but it will not be solved in the short term for this counter-offensive."
    "Training those pilots, training the technicians, making sure there is a logistic organization that can actually sustain these aircraft will not be available before this counter-offensive."
    "We shouldn’t mix the two discussions – I think it’s important and understandable that Ukraine asks for these fighter aircraft – but we should not mix it with the counter-offensive discussion now."
  14. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This.
    It's also possible that Russia is moving them around between airbases (what the US Air Force calls reactive maneuver).
  15. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Around 100 hits in this compilation
  16. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ah, expensive was probably the wrong word in this context. And your point about what damages could be prevented is a good one. 
    But in my mind, Storm Shadow is a weapon that has basically strategic value for Ukraine. It is not used to knock out single vehicles, but command posts, logistical hubs and other such targets which have strategic or operational value for the RA. 
    Thank you for your elaboration, that hits the nail on the head.
    It is scarcity, not monetary worth, that I meant to express. Specially since the RA is dispersing the helicopters o. the airfield.
    Isn't there an ATACMS warhead which is filled with cluster submunitions?
    Another argument for their usefulness to Ukraine and why they should be provided.
    Storm Shadow, JDAM, GLSDB (which are supposed to arrive this year) or Taurus (if Germany decides to supply them) are all warheads which provide single focused effect or general HE.
    GMLRS would be suitable in terms of effect (tungsten pellets) and numbers, but don't have the necessary range.
  17. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sure there are some duplicates and I saw a couple of clear misses. Also maybe even most are past mine kills that are being totaled with the ka-52.
    Still, the volume says a lot. One month of action rivals the kills of TB-2 for the whole duration of the whole war: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/defending-ukraine-listing-russian-army.html or the kills of ZALA Lancet https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/11/hit-or-miss-russian-loitering-munition.html
    with one confirmed ka-52 kill from the Ukrainians. And that was on the ground.
  18. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Around 100 hits in this compilation
  19. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Quantity has a quality all its own said someone, somewhen. There are publicly available satellite pictures of Russian helicopters sitting in the on air fields in Northern Crimea. The issue is that repeated disasters have at least taught the Russians to disperse them. So Ukraine would only get one or two helicopters per missile. Whether or not that is a good deal depends on how many missiles you have, and how much damage the helicopters are causing. The choppers have proved to be a problem, so if there are enough missiles on hand...
     
    I think a lot of the ATACMS awaiting upgrade are currently DPICM war heads. They would actually be far MORE useful to Ukraine, for things like killing helicopters. We would just have to get over ourselves. While we were at it we could send Ukraine a few tens of thousands of the older M26 rockets for the HIMARS. The grid square deletion experience might have noticeable effect on Russian morale. 
  20. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ma03g/ukrainian_strela10_of_the_93rd_brigade_shoots/
    A pretty darn clear view of Strela-10 shooting down drones. I am not 100% certain this isn't part CGI
    Is it possible CM got this wrong? It seems these short-range missile AA systems can shoot down pretty darn small drones.
  21. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from benpark in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ma03g/ukrainian_strela10_of_the_93rd_brigade_shoots/
    A pretty darn clear view of Strela-10 shooting down drones. I am not 100% certain this isn't part CGI
    Is it possible CM got this wrong? It seems these short-range missile AA systems can shoot down pretty darn small drones.
  22. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is something I, or anybody can do with a couple of $ 20-a-month subscriptions and a couple of hours of time.
    Just think what professionals with a budget can do. And indeed are doing.
  23. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  24. Like
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That was horrible.
    I don't understand why they couldn't back up the Bradley closer and drop the ramp right next to the soldiers. Hell, dropping the ramp ON the soldiers would have been preferable. It's almost like there's a 3 meter safely regulation they must obey.
  25. Thanks
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Another Kofman interview:
    https://www.cnas.org/publications/podcast/the-battlefield-landscape-in-ukraine-with-mike-kofman-and-konrad-muzyka
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