Heirloom_Tomato

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

I wonder, how our diversion group could land to destroy radar site, if it located from the side of cliffs, where no place to land personnel?
This is typical landscape of Tarkhankut from the south, closesest place to radar site
 
Possible landing zones only on northern part, were the beach and camping and from the west, where lighthouse, village Mayak and barrack of radar personnel. More lileky this could be a raid on barrack. But maybe later some video will appear.

The Ukrainians are trying to use "something" like this by sappers (in the rear) who are clearing the fields of mines. Supposedly quite effective when undetected and stepped on mines such as the PFM-1, which contain only 40g of explosive, but you can lose a leg if you step on it.
 

Reportedly both bridges were attacked - Chonhar and Henichesk. Early Henichesk bridge was closed for civilian passing and used for military movement. 

Allegedly damages on Chonhar bridge

Henichesk bridge. Video of impact and photo of results - the flame on background is of gas pipe 

 
A few moments before. A SCALP missile on the bridge with personal autograph of Zelenskiy )

An interesting and educational video recently released by Veritasium on fireworks illustrates the impact of confining an explosive quite nicely (see around 6-8 minutes and the 12:34)
 

Of course, Slavic settelmnent names are like abrakadabra for western readers, especially if it has more that 15 letters ))), but yes each name of city, town and village can be roughly translated in English. 
Urozhayne is adjective, so it better to translate not like "harvest", but "fruitful"  ) Though, of course geographical names aren't translated, even partilly like Velyka Novosilka can't be Large Novosilka ) - full rough translated name will be "Large Newcomerville" )
Typical Ukrainian village or rarely setlement/town name has ending -(il/in/ian/iv)ka. Then this in noun. It consists from some significant part and the ending. This "-ka" usually means founding /belonging/first settlers name/name originated from some charakter - so, for example Ivanivka - "Ivan's village", "originated from Ivan", "belonged to Ivan" or Dubivka - "originated from oaks".  Nesterianka - "originated from Nestor"
Some villages and towns rarely have only significant word, without ending.  For example Kopani  - old Ukrainian word "Kopan' ", means "the pit for keeping a water or the well without the frame", so it translated like "Waterpits", or Lyman - despite this word is equal to "liman, firth" for Donbas it has local means "the lake". Or Tokmak - name derived from name of the river Tokmak, which has turk origins means "poll/butt"
Many villages have endings in the names "-le", "-ne", "-te", "-s'ke", "-ve", "-che" and then this is just adjectives. Verbove - from "verba" ("willow"). Sometime it has means of belongings like "-ka". If Ivanivka is "originated from Ivan", that "Ivanivs'ke" is "belonging to Ivan". Robotyne, btw, it more similar to the noun - it's from the word "work", so maybe "place of [field] work", but I think it likely was initially Russian name "Rabotino" more typical for Russian names, which was just translated on Ukrainian manner.   

One would think that totalitarian empire keeping largest mechanized force on this planet in constant readiness for 45 years, with only one goal in mind- offensive (preferably over nuked battlefield), would be enough to convince some people Russians indeed were/are a threat to the West as well. This studio even made entire game about it.
Just to give addendum to previous discussion about validity of muscovite danger. Since perhaps many viewers of this forum not reading Russian are not familiar with state of collective current Russian psyche, as expressed in myriads of their TV channels, internet discussons on media platforms as well as in private conversations, it is worth to reitorate how things stand now:
1. Large swath of population seems to be convinced they already wage kinetic war with NATO, but limited in scope to Ukraine. Kinetic, not just proxy- NATO officers and special forces are everywhere in banderistan, according to them. This notion is far more widespread than just core nationalists; it is common among less literate strata of population, probably a minority but still large, maybe 20-40% overall (no hard and undisputable sociological data make assessment difficult). But surely many more than 50% are at least convinced this is purely defensive (= rightous or even holy) war ont heir behalf that West started, though. For quite many Russians hot "war with NATO", even if geographically limited*, wouldn't be totally new quality, but just formalization of current state of affairs. Many would probably even be relieved in that case- mental blocks nurished by propaganda of Great War for motherland, heroic soldiers, imagined social solidarity would finally fit in right place. It is minority of population, but growing.
*Yes- basically CMBS setting.
2. I don't even enumerate soft actions like spy attacks, use of nerve agents on foreign soil (let's count this as "Whoopsie..."), countless provocation by planes and ships, political meddling, etc. Many of them in other historical context, and with actors less patient than the Western states, could lead to war by themselves.
3. They made artificial flood on largest river in Europe, stationed tanks in the centre of Chernobyl zone and are possibly not far from considering blowing another nuclear power plant.
4. Western Europe in popular Russian imagination (especially older generations) starts on Elbe, not even Odra river. Just a reminder for our German friends. Reason? Beginning of this post. ^
5. Again, perhaps many people are unfamiliar with Russian media (or understandably unwilling to dive in this sewer)- potentiall use of WMD was long ago inernalized and is opnely being discussed daily. To the point they have special programms in public TV (with folks who claim to personally dine with the Tsar) dedicated only to this issue of "preventive" nuclear attacks, with real specialists discussing potentiall fallout, how many nukes would be needed to blow off Amsterdam, Hague ("Hehe, you know why..."  as Skabaieva once giggled joyously with her guests) or London. Highest Russian officials, including twice the president of this country, routinely throw their nuclear phantasies publically. Public, sory for words, intellectual mastrubation with Cossacs drinking their horses in Paris 200 years ago or Soviet Army soldiers "teaching German women proper behaviour" in 1945 are part of very normal, mainstream discourse now.
Now of course this is internal game and a pose to bargain something, one could say; they surely really don't mean it, right? Perhaps. But sole fact that nuclear devastation became a casual topic they are very proud upon, touched even during morning breakfast with kids or being shared by Russian teenagers with girlfriends in chats, should make us much more worried of Russia than we did for last 30 years. I am pretty sure many professional people dealing with MAD in Washington and other places are scratching their heads how to proprely assess what is real in this nev environment, and how to differentiate between real and token danger. Muscovia AD 2023 is much less predicatble even than late Soviet Union in this respect. Especially after we saw how its internal system of power is vulerable in last months.
So yeah- even if you live in charming Provence countryside, well-connected commercial megalopolis like Amsterdam/London/Berlin or some Greek island- it doesn't matter, Russian madness and never satisfacted urge to being proper Empire can reach you in various ways.  Don't fool yourself folks; there are many more ways to do this than just conventional military power.
 
Sorry for long post. As a bonus, clip of Kornets bouncing off of Leopards 2A6 :
 

The problem is we might actually be in a perpetual world war, we just don't fully realise this yet. I admit, my feelings and thoughts are a bit hawkish on this matter. 
It is not a conventional war for sure. It might never end up as another one after Ukraine, or it might. But it is already going and and it is not a war the vast majority of the Western peoples and their governments are even acknowledging that they are involved in.
The West and our democratic systems have an enormous amount of self-made problems we need to solve and plenty of moral flaws. 
But the alternative that is currently trying to flip as many government around to globe to its side is one of completely nihilistic exploitation at best or one of ethno-fascist state ideology at worst. The question whether Putin, Xi, Kim Un, the Iranian regime or Assad and their apparatuses and followers will do completely unspeakable things to anyone in this forum and our families is not one of morals to them - it is merely one of whether it is useful to them and whether they have the  opportunity to do it and maybe to get away with it.
There has been an embarrassing but small social media campaign a while ago in Germany of people from the right-populist to neo-fascist spectrum adopting pfps with a Russian flag and a message like "I'm not at war with Russia" or "I am a friend of the Russian people", which was sparked after a comment of the German foreign affairs secretary describing Germany or the West to be "at war" with Russia (diplomatically wrong and it might have been just a side comment, but it might also hint at her actually having a deeper understanding of the situation at large).
I could only think at how many of these people would end up if Russia established a regime just like in the occupied zones in Ukraine in Germany. "This must be a mistake, I called NATO bad on twitter" - "You have a nice daughter, German. And now dig the f*ing hole."
It is a new cold world war between "the worst system of government except for all other systems" and "the difference between you and the Uyghurs is that the Uyghurs are handily in reach of the CCP, but Xi promised the next illegal Chinese police station will come to a port city near you shortly", with Russia and China pouring enormous amounts of resources into psyops, cyber, social networking and industrial espionage. Information warfare which makes their own populations and the populations of their enemies forget the extent of their own crimes and massacres. People openly clamour that the Tianamen Square massacre is a Western psyop and don't forget one million dead Russian babies in Donbass CNN is telling you nothing about.
Look how we in this forum needed to brainstorm for a bit to remind ourselves what Russia has actually done in the past. Blatant murders of journalists and dissidents, in our own countries, while grinning into our faces. China just put out bounties for the heads of dissidents from HongKong. The next polonium tea is green. 
All of it fields in which the West is currently not able and/or not willing to compete in, and/or largely unable to defend itself against. And every country in Asia, Africa, America and Europe that is flipped through corruption, military support and propping up dictators will make economic sanctions more toothless, and the global order more hollow, turning their societies isolationist to achieve Schmittian multipolarity, or blocking decisions in entities like NATO, EU or UN. 
It very much does look like a global underhanded war of systems to me.
There is nothing in history that says things always have to improve or that the Western Man is the rightful God-given owner of global power, and thank goodness we majorly don't believe in the latter anymore. But I always hoped whichever hegemony eventually replaces the West would be more or at least equally humane, not gleefully more cruel. And I don't think a hope like that is a bad thing to work towards.
 

Damn. It's very bad. Chief sergeant of 47h mech.brigade Valeriy Markus blamed command of brigade in incompetence and wrote a report to move him on lower duty of squad leader. 
This is real scandal, because Markus is a "face", "frontman" and "PR-manager" of this brigade, who was one of founders of this unit as far as it was 47th separate rifle battalion. He was in the list of Forbes Ukriane among most influent military of Ukraine, he is founder of charity fund "Markus Fundation"
In order to you could understand why this is bad, I have to tell about Valeriy Markus and history of 47th mech. brigade "Magura". 
29 y.o. Markus is very popular in Ukriane - he fought in ATO from 2014 to 2016, he passed a hell of Shakhtarsk battle with 25th airborne brigade. His popularity came to him via his Facebook - his posts were always true and wise. He got heavy shell-shock and was forced to retire from service. He fought with heavy PTSR via sport and travelling and became a classical "self-made man". He wrote a book about his life and war "The traces on the road" (as Valeriy Ananyev - later he changed his surname), which became bestseller and beat up circullations of all modern Ukrainian writers, causing sometime envy and hatred from their side to the "upstart"
Markus is one of servicemen, who promoted a question of strong sergeant corps establishment in Ukrainian army as an earnest of effectiveness. Despite he was retired, his popularity allowed him to have aquintances with influent military and civill volunteers, which promoted the same thoughts. In 2023 his open lection to sergeants of 47th brigade in Youtube got 1 million reviews.   
When the war began, Markus returned to army and some time served as recon in 30th mech.brigade. In April 2022 high command (Markus likely has good relationships with Zaluzhnyi) offered to him to participate in forming of 47th separate rifle battalion, where he got a duty chief sergeant of battalion. The unit fought, defending Svitlodarsk, after Russians brokethrough Popasna front. 
Ideas of Markus and some officers about creation of modern effective large unit, free from old Soviet s...t, found the response of High Command and in Autumn there was announced about forming of 47th assault regiment (since Novenber 2022 - brigade). According to idea of Markus and his like-minded people, the unit should have been free from сasual people. Only competitive selection, only volunteers with leadership, motivation, readiness to learn and fight. Enlistment points of regiment were gathering many people, many servicemen wanted to transfer to "Markus brigade". But... something go wrong as later wrote Markus himself. Either General Staff, or MoD decided by unknown reasons to finish this "experiment" and to brigade were directed enough officers and personnel, which didn't  match to initial requirements. Yes, most command of brigade almost all was taken from famous 93rd mech.brigade. Brigade commander lt.colonel Oleksandr Sak "Staff" is a youngest brigade commander in UKR army - he is 28 y.o. He fought since 2015, has four injuries. Thanking to Markus PR the brigade became so popular like Azov or 3rd assault brigade. All expected a miracle from the unit, which have been training more that 8 months and got modern equipment. 
And now THIS. Translation of Markus report. 
Tweet: 
I categorically don't agree with decisions about usage and development of 47th brigade. We were not allowed to build a muilitary unit, according to our values, which we declared at the beginning of forming. I havn't more any opportunity to influence on situation or change it. I no longer consider my tenure of chief sergeant to be expedient. I can't abandon my people, so I go on lower duty by my own will in order to be closer to them on the battlefield. 
Report:
 
Because of systematical humilitation of brigade's sergeant corps work, of misunderstanding by brigade command an importance of fighters moral spirit for effective tasks acomplishing, because of absence of punishment for <self-censored> and incompetence of persons of highest officer corps of brigade, rejection and sabotaging traditions and mythiology of brigade on all levels of officers chain, because of absence of the will of brigade's command to protect interests of brigade in front of higher command, I ask you to transfer me, chief sergeant of 47th brigade Valeriy Markus to lower duty of combat vehicle commander - the leader of mech.squad of mech.platoon of x mech.comapny of  x mech.battalion.
Also valid reporting, that by my opinion, the deputy commander of 47th brigade major Ivan Shalamaha is immorale degenerate, being with which in one team humilitates my honor and dignity. 
 
 
It's will be very interesting about reaction of Zaluzhnyi. Because in Ukrianian social network already holywar is setting on fire...

Well it kinda does change the rationale.  The fact that you are seeing this as a hard "pro" or "against" DPICM situation is evidence that this entire thing has been hijacked by slippery principle as opposed to reality.  I for one am highly against the use of DPICM in urban areas on a low-level conflict/counter insurgency, such as Southern Lebanon.  I am, however, for their legal use in Southern Ukraine when the UA is running out of ammunition and needs to sustain an offensive to keep momentum or risk stalling out into a frozen conflict.  See that?  I can actually have two opposed opinions on the use of these weapons based on context.  Anyone who is able to do that is living in the real world as we try and balance the hope and desperation.
If, however, one stands on principle regardless of context, then they are "pearl clutching" and being self-righteous in my opinion.  Tossing around "but the children!" arguments that lead to hypocritical cul de sacs is just as bad as blood thirsty genocidal sentiments we have also clamped down on.  Of course being someone who has had spent their adult life going out into the world and dealing with the worst while 99.9% of my home population is more worried about whether Taylor Swift is going to do a concert in Toronto has likely jaded me somewhat.

Not that anyone had any doubts, but it is good to hear that russia spoke it out in front of the world. Wagner is the state terror organization of russia. So all atrocities of Wagner are atrocities committed by the russian state.
 
 

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 
Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.
Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?
Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”
Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  
Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

Putin: "I don't need ammo, I need a ride"

12:30
https://telesco.pe/bolshiepushki/4397
Claim - another Wagnerite units is crossing the border
12:39
https://t.me/dva_majors/18924
Claim - Video Tanks are moving toward Moscow [probably RU MOD]. Tanks in Moscow is a very sensitive topic for RU.
12:40
https://t.me/horevica/12823
Claim Voronezh Oil depot was attacked by KA-52
12:42
https://t.me/elite_rezerve/21856
Claim exchange rate for dollar 1 to 90, Euro 1 to 100 (exchange rate with three digits  is very sensitive topic for RU)
12:46
RU Nats are discussing that both Prig and Putin live in their own realities
12:50
https://t.me/juchkovsky/3705
Claim  that kadirovci indeed started to move toward Rostov. Not very smart move for Kremlin
.https://t.me/natalia_maximus_ZOV/17528
Claim - Rostov support Wagnerites. They help Wagnerites with water nad food
 
I am off for some time

11:04
https://t.me/zloy_zhurnalist/5377
Claim Wagnerites column toward Voronezh. Voronezh is calm but there is no military in the city.
https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10866
Nesmyan (Civilian Girkin)
Video - Heavy construction vehicles are moving toward Moscow to be used to block avenues of approach
11:08
https://t.me/dva_majors/18861
Volodin (RU parliament)
"The deputies stand for the consolidation of forces amd support the president," the speaker of the State Duma said. He noted that the Wagner fighters should be with their people and on the side of the law, protect the security of the Motherland and follow the orders of the Supreme Commander—in-chief, everything else is a betrayal.
11:08
https://t.me/rybar/48906
Rybar
Front Aviation is hitting M4 highway. Olr RU joke that eventually RU gov will bomb Voronezh to scare heinous westerners became reality.
11:13
https://t.me/rybar/48907
Rybar
And this is still playing into the hands of PMCs. We see online statements by Surovikin, Alekseev, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. We see statements from the Department of Information and Mass Communications. We see the actions and consequences of giving instructions from the leadership of the Ministry of Defense.
But we do not see the main thing — at least some attempts at dialogue with the PMCs. Maybe Gerasimov and Shoigu profess the principle "there can be no dialogue with terrorists." But in this case, this principle does not work.
The speech of the military-political leadership — not only the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but also the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation — would demonstrate the flexibility of the participants in the conflict. And it could show to the doubting and rushing souls that they are, there are military leaders who are not afraid to speak out.
But for some reason there is no such thing. There are only Prigozhin's words that Gerasimov and Shoigu "ran away", "withdrew themselves [out of the situation]" and "gave criminal orders".
11:21
https://t.me/fighter_bomber/12885
Fighter-bomber (VKS pilot)
Ru helicopter are flying now with one Wagnerite on board to make sure they do not fly to impropriate place. But nobody knows how he can  really understand where they are flying.
11:23
https://t.me/dva_majors/18871
Claim video from left side of the river at oil depot.
11:25
https://t.me/dva_majors/18872?single
Claim - videos of [unknown] military columns at Voronezh
11:30
https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/10870
Nesmyan
Claim - video of firefigth at Voronezh. No further information

Special Mutiny Operation

Summary - Bla-bla-bla, everything will be fine I promise.

How to demilitarize a T-55 - Orc style
 
 

This but more. I was playing a massive PBEM many years ago and noticed I had a whole platoon routed and couldn't figure out why. I loaded up the last few turns and watched just that platoon until I could see what happened. 
I had smashed one of my opponents units and then sent in a whole platoon to go clear them out. Rookie mistake but I sent them all to move at once figuring they would cover each as they ran, no need to area fire to keep the fleeing enemy fleeing. As my platoon was filtering into his postions, the squads got a bit bunched up. One enemy stopped fleeing turned and fired a single shot. It hit one of my guys who was about to throw a grenade. He falls, the grenade bounces into the pile of friendlies. It goes off and down go a bunch of my men, including two others who were also just about to throw grenades. As they fall, their grenades also land at the feet of their comrades and a bunch more guys drop. One single bullet and he took out half a platoon.
I watched that single turn so many times because I just could not believe what I was seeing. Had we been playing real-time I would have missed it but instead I was able to go back a few turns and see what I had missed. WEGO only ever since.

Some our "armchair generals" already plan such things - to attack on the section Dniprorudne - Vasylivka, when the water will go further and the bottom will dry. 
But historically this wasn't flat place. This was a so-called "Great Meadow" - homeland of Zaporozhian Cossaks. The region of southands small rivers, creecks, tiny lakes - it in more modern times called "Dnipro plavni" - the meadows, which flooded after snow melting. 
Locals already are finding old artefacts on the bottom of reservoir. After the war it will be holiday for "dark archeologists" 
Old pistole or sawn-off rifle

Likely WWII German graves washed out by water
Wrecked vessel

The place of old bridge, I can't understand where it can be... There wasn't bridge between Nikopol and Kamyanka, only a ferry. Germans tried to build, but hadn't a time, only several concrete pierces were seen from water. 

And here is a fragment of German map for 1942 how looked this place, when water reservoir doesn't exist
 
 

Good lord that is a tough one. So are we talking leadership training?  Sounds like it.  Battlefield leadership and resilience is a big freakin topic.  If I had 15 mins before jumping off the truck and running into it:
- Don’t get pulled too far in.  Combat is pretty wild and it is easy to get pulled too far into a single crisis.  The reality is that is all crisis.  A tactical line leader needs to keep one step back and try and see the system of crisis as it unfolds.  If the leader is pulled in too far they lose the picture they need to sustain in order to give their people the best chances and to keep the pointed at the enemy.
- Don’t get pulled too far back.  Fear and shock is normal but once the initial contact is made leaders cannot suck too far back.  You do that and the troops feel abandoned and you start to lose the ability to get a feel of how the whole machine is holding together.
- Combat is a longer game than people think.  Once the initial actions and shooting start, the drama starts to normalize.  Leaders need to stay on top of that.  Normalize can mean troops get sloppy…they got into combat and did not die…so now what?  Also the need to watch out for sustainment.  Modern western troops were set up for about 20 mins of sustained combat before air or indirect firepower came to the rescue.  The UA guys do not have this, so they might have to settle in and make their ammo last - so back to basics like fire discipline and marksmanship (yep they still matter).
- On Basics - build them in as priority and stick to them. Once the lead starts flying and people start screaming everything else strips away.  You are left with relationships and trust you built up to that point (ie each other) and the basic skills you have beaten into their brains.  Something as simple as IAs and stoppages and simply keeping you weapon in operation can be really hard under fire unless it is beaten into muscle memory.  Have the troops practice the most mundane things, hundreds of times.
- Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.  Be deliberate and as calm as you can be at all times.  Calm like panic is contagious.  If the leader is not freaking out, the troops likely won’t either.  Be deliberate, take the few extra seconds to pull order together.  Get past scared, get past mad and get cold.  You should literally feel cold inside - once you get there it gets a lot easier.  People become systems.  The enemy is a metric.  Really hard to describe this space but you have a mission and everything else, including you are simply means to that end, or a obstacle to remove.
- Build trust and use it.  As a ground force leader your weapon is the unit.  It is only as good as you kept it before the shooting started.  In combat let it do its job and try hard to stay out of people’s way.  There is an art to knowing when to step in and when not too.
- Leadership is nothing like the movies or even the BS fed in basic. It starts with whipping the troops in training while driving them in front of you, then it shifts to walking with them under fire - lean on each other.  In the back end you will be out in front pulling, sometimes begging and pleading to get them across the finish line.  Again quiet calm is the norm.  Then when you do yell or swear everyone really pays attention because it is so much out of character.
- Establish depth and redundancy…everywhere.  Everyone has a 2 IC, 3 IC and then last man standing.  I cannot describe how fast the famous “chain of command” can fall apart.  So build it deep.  Also leave room for informal leaders, they will emerge.
- Don’t be a hero, your people do not need one.  Some guys go in looking for that hero moment but that often only gets people killed.  A hero gets in and gets the job done while keeping as many of his people alive as he can.  Take opportunities if the come but don’t lean too far forward at the expense of peoples lives.
- Little things matter so much.  A joke, a quiet word a little luxury and a small sacrifice.  For some troops when they get ragged these little things make all the difference and can sustain them.
- Finally, and this is the hardest one, do not forget that you and your people are ammunition. Your job is to spend them on problems. Worse, your job is to convince them that it is worth it.  Once the war is over you are going to be living with this fact for the rest of you life.  You only get to put that one down at the end.  You will spend those years writing reference letters for jobs they are applying for, checking in on the survivors and people left behind, and re-living every decision you made.  Just accept that and move on but never forget the weight of this thing, that is your end.
Beyond that, resilience is a lot about understanding what is happening to you.  If you can name it, you take its power away.  You need to be really self aware and do self checks,  Cannot stress the importance of the lead NCO and officer team in this.  You and your troop or company NCO need to really be able to gauge where each other are at as a check and balance system.  And none of it makes sense.  You might get into three firefights and are fine, then once fourth you freeze up.  Why you froze up could be anything in the human soup.  You need to understand it is happening and hand off as quickly as possible.  Then get over it because it may never happen again.  If it happens a lot or all the time - you are not a coward, you are simply too evolved for this business.  Time to get pulled off the line and go do an important job somewhere else.  Perhaps you are a brilliant staff officer or analyst that can save hundreds of lives.  Everyone will break eventually (well anyone who is not a complete psychopath) it is a matter of when, not if…even you.

Ok, well things are getting clearer.  Retreating Bradley’s are extracting.  One flies by, second one clearly hit a land mine.  Troops de-bus, no panic the take cover while the gun camera Bradley provides covering fire (ballsy not to simply bail).  Everyone starts popping smoke and troops jump on Bradley to get out of there.
First point shows why it is a bad idea to try to drive back out.  Always push, if you get hit at least you have cleared as far as you got. But I suspect things had gone so wrong they abandoned the mission.  Second troops were controlled and did the right thing post mine strike. Third, no RA artillery. Now I am sure they were very concerned it was going to start dropping but that minefield is not being effectively covered.  Those two videos are four minutes, RA mortars should at least be hammering them - and we are glad they weren’t but that is poor cover of an obstacle.
Lastly, no idea what they were shooting at but obviously in treeline in direction of gun and popped smoke.  So best guess, a recon in force got hit by ATGM from a treeline.  Likely lost breaching vehicles.   At least two Bradleys tried to drive back out (bad) other may have been hit coming or going.  Hit more mines because they were in a Devils OODA loop but that gun Bradley looks like it kept it head and got those troops out because we don’t see a lot of bodies in the Russian videos.  
So bad day in a minefield, looks like most of the troops out alive, so they live to fight again and have proven recon is a dangerous job.  RA still have tank hunting teams and their arty support is questionable (at least in this area).  Hardly a disaster, some AAR points but no need to start calling the Kremlin to discuss terms yet.

Well that is what a minefield breaching operation going very wrong looks like.  
Before everyone freaks out the vehicles that kept pushing are supposed to do that.  Backing out is just asking to die and impossible to do in column, he saw the RA prove this over and over again.  If your breaching vehicle takes a hit - and that appears to be the Leo, you keep pushing even if it means taking casualties.  We would do the exact same thing.  I mean what are the options?  Stop, wait for help or talk things over while the enemy kills you inside a minefield?  Back out along the one cleared path…while the enemy kills you in a minefield?  Nope you push.  Difference between the UA and the RA is that the Leo has a mine plow on the front (which is odd, that is the deep end of clearance, they should be sticking with rollers).  The RA was just straight pushing.
What is interesting is again the lack of any real RA artillery.  No big craters or impact marks.  Vehicles look like they took mobility hits (except that one) and the crews bailed and ran.  When we do these ops each Combat Team would do two breaches and accept that one is going to die.  This is the video from the failed one.
We said this from the start - western kit does not come with magic wizard shields that allow them to float above the ground and drive their enemies before them.  They blow up just the same as Russian kit.  We were always going to see this, and we will likely see more.  Russian info sphere is going to push out any and all of these that it can.  So buckle in and put your helmets on.

I think this is part of the wider strategy behind blowing the dam. @Haiduk has posted twice in the past 24 hours the Russians are trying to blow up the ammonia pipeline. This pipeline provides ammonia for fertilizer. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/how-un-plan-russian-ammonia-export-could-help-global-fertiliser-market-2022-09-14/
The reservoir currently draining through the blown dam provides the irrigation water to 80% of Ukraine's irrigated crop land. 
So if the fertilizer supply is impacted and prices for fertilizer go up, either the price for crops needs to increase to cover the extra expense or farmers will use less fertilizer and yields will decrease. Either way, the consumer will pay more for food. With the water supply for irrigation impacted until the dam can be repaired, the supply of food will go down and prices up. As @billbindc says, governments fall rather quickly when food prices get out of control. I think the Russians are hoping the rest of the world will put increasingly more pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire to stabilize the price of food.
If you have a garden at home, or room for even a few plants, it is not too late to plant a few more rows or a couple of extra tomato plants. Every extra pound of food you can grow for yourself this season, will not only secure your food supply, it will free up food for those who can't grow their own.

If they're smart they'll avoid Toronto. No one deserves the Maple Leafs inflicted on them....